Putin’s Partition of Ukraine?

3 Mar

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By William Risch @williamrisch

The Russian occupation of Crimea over the weekend has alarmed President Barack Obama, the UN, NATO, the EU, and, last but not least, the people of Ukraine.  A week ago, it looked like the Euromaidan protest movement , which began in late November over President Viktor Yanukovych’s refusal to sign an Association Agreement with the EU, and grew into a mass movement against Yanukovych’s authoritarian rule, had won.  After an agreement with the political opposition on February 21, Yanukovych and his entourage fled Kyiv.  The next day, Ukraine’s parliament, the Supreme Rada, overthrew Yanukovych.  Most importantly, Ukraine had avoided civil war, despite significant differences over things like historical memory , relations with Russia, and attitudes toward the Euromaidan protest movement in Western and Eastern Ukraine.  Pro-Yanukovych elites in Eastern Ukraine pledged their loyalty to Kyiv and accused Yanukovych of betraying them.

Then came Crimea.

On February 27, unknown armed men seized Crimea’s parliament in Simferopol.  Then Russian military forces, some stationed in Crimea, took over or surrounded Ukrainian military installations.  They claimed to be protecting Crimea’s citizens, of whom about 60 percent are ethnic Russian.  Speaker of Russia’s Federation Council, Valentina Matviyenko, claimed that Russians had been killed there.  Yet on March 2, the speaker of Crimea’s parliament said he knew nothing about it.

Ukraine, rather than facing civil war, is threatened with partition by Russia.

Take Kharkiv, an eastern industrial city.  Hired thugs, some from Russian cities like Voronezh and Belgorod, came to a meeting of “patriotic Kharkivians,” stormed the governor’s office, dragged out about 30 Euromaidan activists inside, and beat them up and humiliated them on Freedom Square.  They hoisted Russian flags from the governor’s office.  Russians from outside Ukraine were involved.  Over the weekend, Euromaidan activist Vitaly Umanets discovered an invitation from “Ukrainian Civil Self-Defense” to residents of Belgorod and Rostov-on-the-Don, Russian cities bordering Ukraine, to take part in organized resistance in Donetsk and Kharkiv while posing as ordinary tourists at the border.

Many in Eastern Ukraine and Crimea distrust the new regime.  Yet this weekend’s acts of violence in Kharkiv and Donetsk, or fake stories about such acts in Crimea, are reminiscent of fictitious and semi-fictitious accounts of violence against ethnic Germans that Nazi Germany used to justify annexation of the Sudetenland and the conquest of Czechoslovakia and Poland.  Russia’s Federation Council on March 1 had approved use of force in Ukraine “for the normalization of the political situation in this country.”  With the Russian media since late November portraying Euromaidan protestors as extreme nationalists and hirelings of the West, Putin most likely is using Russian forces, and provocateurs from across the border, to take not just Crimea, but also Eastern Ukraine, and maybe even install a more loyal regime in Kyiv.