Wither Nashi?
By Sean at 31 January, 2009, 11:02 am
For those interested in Nashi, I recommend listening to this interview with Dr. Regina Heller from the University of Hamburg Institute for Peace and Research (a recent article of hers on Nashi can be found here). I think Heller’s discussion serves as as good primer for understanding the many aspects to the pro-Kremlin group. I find it puzzling that the interviewer is surprised that the state is mobilizing youth for support. She seems to think that youth are somehow inherently against the state and for change. This must be some kind of post-1960s myth because historically youth have more often than not been used for rallying nationalist and pro-government support. Groups like the Boys’ Brigades, Boy Scouts, Wandervogel, Hitler Youth, and Komsomol were not known for their anti-government rhetorics.
One issue Heller timely takes up is whether Nashi’s days are numbered since it’s “served its purpose” and is now “politically obsolete” for the Kremlin. I don’t agree with this. Nashi may be in crisis (interestingly not unlike like the Komsomol was after the Russian Civil War) and is searching for its role in Medvedev’s Russia. I think I would count on its death anytime soon. Especially if Lyndon is correct and “colored revolution” continues to be a specter that haunts the political elite.
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Who needs Nashi when you have Mashka?
http://anaitiss.livejournal.com/551096.html
And here is a patriotic picture of her:
http://pics.livejournal.com/drugoi/pic/00pwqaqe.jpg
And in this entry Mashka put up a video of her rousing words:
http://anaitiss.livejournal.com/551662.html
(I didn’t click on it. Maybe later.)
Kolya, you are totally right to highlight this amazing display of patriotism. I believe this individual / event is affiliated with Molodaia Gvardiia Edinoi Rossii (MGER, or the MGERovtsy, as they are known in some circles). They are similar to Nashi but are not Nashi. Interesting stuff. Happily, she’s provided a transcript of her own remarks (perhaps it was provided to her ahead of time) on her blog – when I watched the video before reading the associated blog posts I assumed based on the quality that it was just an ad lib speech. Watch it, you won’t be disappointed.
By the way, Sean, I should clarify – I don’t believe the specter of an OR really haunts the elites at this point (unless they are really unhinged or they define any social unrest as an OR), I think rather that the threat of an OR is quite a useful thing for them.
I just watched it, Lyndon. I particularly like the part about Russia not only going to the moon but also to another galaxy. Indeed, why should Russia be so parochial and limit herself to our tiny solar system?
Among the comments, I liked this one:
“зачем вы подтверждаете стереотип о блондинках?”
“why are you confirming the blonde stereotype?”
I think rather that the threat of an OR is quite a useful thing for them.
It isn’t just the threat of an OR. It is the perceived source of the OR … the idea that OR were started by covert operations by NGO’s … sponsored by another unseen nation.
And the war in South Ossetia … was caused by another unseen nation.
And the gas conflict with Ukraine … was caused by another unseen nation.
And the world economic crisis … was caused by another unseen nation.
In fact, most of my friends and acquaintances in Russia have grown quite against this “unseen nation”, as I am reminded in various conversations these days. Everything bad in life is apparently attributed to that country, Наши вероятные враги.
It’s a very useful script.
Wally, that’s exactly what I meant, but you captured it better. In my mind, the idea of an OR assumes/includes the “unseen nation.”
“And the world economic crisis … was caused by another unseen nation.”
Well, it was. Isn’t that the general consensus among economists?
“Isn’t that the general consensus among economists?”
Is it? I don’t recall economists saying the world economic crisis was CAUSED by the US. I’m not trying to be polemical, Chris, and you may be right that that’s the consensus. If it is, though, I’m not aware of it. What I have seen is economists talking about how interconnected the world economies are and that basically all of the world was involved in the follies that caused the crisis. I also recall that when situation became bad there was a certain amount of schadenfreude among some Russians, Venezuelans and others, until they sort quieted down when it became apparent that the crisis is affecting them more than they expected.
“I don’t recall economists saying the world economic crisis was CAUSED by the US. I’m not trying to be polemical, Chris, and you may be right that that’s the consensus.”
It’s my understanding that the root was in the US subprime crisis. Not that I’m an economist.
The Guardian’s Twenty-five people at the heart of the meltdown … sure does list a lot of Americans . . .
It’s my understanding that the root was in the US subprime crisis. Not that I’m an economist.
What caused the subprime crisis? People suddenly deciding not to pay their mortgages? A mass collection of dead-beats who tricked banks into giving them loans?
Plus – how did that particular problem happen to spread to almost every other nation on the planet?
Here’s a hint – the recession started before the subprime crisis.
It is pretty simple to understand that almost every global economic upswing and downturn in the last 50 years has been tied to the US economy. Conspiracy theorists say this is because of the 1994 Bretton Woods conference. Realists understand that the US has been an economic powerhouse since World War II, being one of the few developed economies not severely damaged by the war. Regardless of how current events play out, it is likely to remain one of the most important economies in the world and drive much (if not most) of the worlds economic growth.
That doesn’t mean that nothing has changed for the US or its citizens, however.
Chris and Sean (I have not yet seen the Guardian list), I’m also not an economist. From what I have read, though, I think it’s rather simplistic to state that the world crisis was CAUSED by a country called the USA. Remember that I was responding to Chris’s reply to the following by Woody:
“And the war in South Ossetia … was caused by another unseen nation.
And the gas conflict with Ukraine … was caused by another unseen nation.
And the world economic crisis … was caused by another unseen nation.”
Responding to the last sentence Chris wrote: “Well, it was.”
I take issue with that because the context of Woody’s words it is clear that he’s writing about the US (the unseen nation) being the convenient whipping boy. The global economy is a complicated thing and many of its primary movers are totally transnational. The US is still the world’s most powerful economy and what happens in the US naturally affects the rest of the world. Once again, though, from what I have read I don’t think we can blame the US (as an entity, as an agent) for this crisis.
I don’t know if this is only accessible to subscribers, but this article gives a long view of the origins of the economic crisis.
http://www.newleftreview.org/?page=article&view=2759
Well, it was. Isn’t that the general consensus among economists?
Maybe in the Russian government, which likes to pretend it is somehow above the fray and point blame for any problem towards the US, which was the point of the topic.
You can try to blame the US for the recession, but it is simply a matter of an economic downturn, which is an inherent feature of free market capitalist economies. You can point a finger at specific policies of government and banks that exacerbated the problem, but that misses the point that economic downturns will always come. Nobody was complaining about the US economy or blaming the US when foreign businesses and investors were making money from it.
Thanks, Sean. I was able to download it. I’ll read it sometime this week. Because of my superficial level of knowledge, all too often I read a well crafted article and say, “this makes sense, I think he’s right,” and the next day I read a well crafted article by someone arguing the opposite and I say, “hey, this makes sense, I think he’s right.”
It’s my understanding that the root was in the US subprime crisis. Not that I’m an economist.
I will join the chorus of self-proclaimed non-economists here. However, one thing I do know (or think I know) is that one of the things that fueled subprime lending was the ability to securitize mortgages (i.e., bundle them together and sell them as mortgage-backed securities). The thing is that sophisticated investors all over the world bought these securities. So you could blame the banks who sold the securities or you could blame the banks who bought them – in fact, it looks like there’s plenty of blame to go around for everyone.
You can try to blame the US for the recession, but it is simply a matter of an economic downturn, which is an inherent feature of free market capitalist economies.
You better watch out Wally. Some might hear this and start calling you a Marxist.
But okay I can agree that the US as a nation didn’t cause the global economic crisis. It was caused by policymakers, politicians, and bankers etc (many of whom are in the US) who believed that they could sustain profitability through by creating a series of bubbles through monetary policies (tech, commodities, and property) and packaging, redistributing, and profiting off debt over the last 15 years. I think people place the US at the center of this because American economy is at the center of the global economy. So when it goes, much more of the world goes with it. This is shown in the fact that the financial crises in East Asia, Latin America, and Russia in the 1990s didn’t cause such big waves. But one centered on the US does.
Still, for people like myself, the problem is not the US as such except to say that the ideological underpinnings of the causes of the crisis are mostly of American origin. The problem is capital.
Kolya, I have those “hey, this makes sense” moments all the time. I’ve been reading Robert Brenner’s The Economics of Global Turbulence which “makes sense” and then I read a series of critiques of it in the New Left Review that also make sense.
I think people place the US at the center of this because American economy is at the center of the global economy. So when it goes, much more of the world goes with it.
Yes, I agree with that 100%. I also think because of this, when the US economy is doing well, much of the world’s economies benefit. With Russia in particular, it seems bizarre that they should blame the US for the current downturn, when they benefited so much from high oil prices, largely created speculation fueld by US foreign policy and domestic demand.
As an experiment, I decided to google various countries (Italy, France, Iceland, Russia China, Japan) and “blames US”.
Informally, it would appear the most English articles are regarding China blaming the US. I would say Russia is a strong #2.
Curiously, you get even more results using “Putin blames US”. Putin also “accuses” and “suggests” things about the US, according to the headlines.
fnord
However, one thing I do know (or think I know) is that one of the things that fueled subprime lending was the ability to securitize mortgages (i.e., bundle them together and sell them as mortgage-backed securities). The thing is that sophisticated investors all over the world bought these securities. So you could blame the banks who sold the securities or you could blame the banks who bought them – in fact, it looks like there’s plenty of blame to go around for everyone.
Yes, this is my understanding also. And people were making money off of these investments for a while.
I think the subprime aspect only magnified the downturn, however … just as it also inflated profits and real estate prices. Economists that I have read put the start of the US recession as being sometime in the 3rd or 4th quarter of 2007. Obviously, something triggered people who were making their monthly mortgage payments to begin to default en masse.
I’m waiting for Doss to come here and tell us we are just talking around the problem, and Amerika is to blame for the global economic downturn.
Sean, I only had a chance to take a cursory look at your link and noticed that there was no mention of the Community Reinvestment Act. Kind of suspicious, even if you considered it a red herring with respect to the causes of the crisis. It seems to me that a well-round accounting of the causes of the latest downturn should at least give some background on the CRA, and if considered a red herring, evidence for why it is considered so.
On another topic, including the Boy Scouts in your list above is somewhat disingenuous. I can’t recollect the Boy Scouts ever campaigning for a political party or individual, must less participating in voter drives.
On another topic, including the Boy Scouts in your list above is somewhat disingenuous. I can’t recollect the Boy Scouts ever campaigning for a political party or individual, must less participating in voter drives.
Nor did the Boys’ Brigades. But they weren’t campaigning for change either. My point had nothing to with voting or parties. My point t challenge the assumption that “youth” are inherently progressive. Historically, youth organizations tend to be conservative organizations used by states or people who believe in nationalism. Read Baden-Powell’s ideas about the Boy Scouts. Especially his six “knightly duties” for scouts. With their ideology, they might as well have been Nashi. Granted, the Boy’s Scouts’ militarist edge has waned in the last several decades, but in the late 19th and early 20th century their purpose was steeped in militarism, conservative values, and in some countries, racialism and empire.
On second thought, I might have been mistaken in including the Wandervogel. They were mostly naturalists with a bit of romanticism. They denied politics by dropping out into nature (which I guess is a form of politics)
On to the important question:
Did you mean “wither” or “whither” in the title? It’s actually unclear, since in some sense you are talking about both the future direction of the organization and the possibility of it shriveling up.
You know I can’t let these things simply stare at me over the internets without getting my agitate on.
On another topic, including the Boy Scouts in your list above is somewhat disingenuous.
My knee jerked instinctively on that also, until I read it more carefully and realized the context that Sean was using.
Historically, youth organizations tend to be conservative organizations used by states or people who believe in nationalism.
For example: http://www.freewebs.com/youthcorp/
Did you mean “wither” or “whither” in the title?
I took it as a pun or double entendre.
Always the grammar Chekist. I meant wither. I think if Nashi can’t figure out its role, it might shrivel up on its own. This almost happened to the Komsomol in 1921-22 when thousands of youth left. With the revolution/war over, many members felt the organization had no purpose. Similarly, I think Nashi’s worst enemy is not those in the Kremlin who might think they are obsolete, but the possibility that they can’t find a direction for their members to stay and participate in the organization.
Nashi’s anti-Americanism will work for now but for how long?
“I’m waiting for Doss to come here and tell us we are just talking around the problem, and Amerika is to blame for the global economic downturn.”
It sure wasn’t Russia.
“You can try to blame the US for the recession, but it is simply a matter of an economic downturn, which is an inherent feature of free market capitalist economies.”
Dude, this is by most people’s lights the biggest crisis since the Great Depression. It is not a mere cyclic economic downturn.
It sure wasn’t Russia.
Which indicates what? I can only suggest that Russia’s economic influence in the world is very limited. An economic downturn in the US affects a large part of the world. An economic downturn in Russia affects … Russia.
Dude, this is by most people’s lights the biggest crisis since the Great Depression. It is not a mere cyclic economic downturn.
Dramatic overstatement.
U.S. Unemployment rates are the worst in 20+ years, dating back to the early 80s. In Massachusetts, for example, it is the worst since 1993. http://www.bostonherald.com/news/regional/view/2009_01_31_Mass__suffers_worst_unemployment_since_1993/
Yes, it is a “mere” cyclic economic downturn. Mere is your choice of words; I think it indicates a lack of appreciation for history and a pampered life. Losing a job is never a small thing when you have family that depends upon you.
Even the Great Depression was a cyclic economic downturn – economic depressions took place about every 30 years in the US from 1807 to 1929.
“It sure wasn’t Russia.”
You are right, but then, as far as I know, nobody is blaming Russia. Wally, Sean and Lyndon pretty much covered it: it’s a complicated world wide mess for which the US (as either an entity or agent) should not be singled out. Considering the size of the US economy, the world economy cannot be unaffected either on the upswing or the downswing.
“Dude, this is by most people’s lights the biggest crisis since the Great Depression. It is not a mere cyclic economic downturn.”
For me it’s interesting that the economic/financial experts who called it right early on (the so-called doomsayers like Roubini) are not being apocalyptic in the long term. In other words, they say that the worse is ahead of us and that there will be plenty of tough times, but they are not talking about a total collapse. That is, they think that after a few years things will work themselves out. Time will tell whether they are right, but they sure know more about it than I do.
I got a coupla questions.
Suppose I am supporting a few people. If I suddenly loose all sources of income, should I be blamed for causing a “crisis” in my dependents life? What if some of those dependents are older than Sergey Brin?
Conversely, if Sergey Brin were to loose everything, should we blame him for causing a “crisis” for his parents and all the other people who benefit from his productivity?
Even though I cannot help but totally root for VVP in this Davos session with Michael Dell:
http://www.russiatoday.com/news/news/36558/video
Russia cannot have it both ways: You cannot tell the world “We don’t need help. We are not invalids. We don’t have limited mental capacity.” And then blame all your problems on the powerful ‘other.’
BTW: Dell was in Russia like 15 years ago. Partnered with a company called IBS which is now considered a major tech services firm in the region. Dell did get the ball rolling; IBS grew up. Hardware is a commodity, surrounding services is a business. Exactly why IBM is faring well right now, and Dell has no story.
Wasn’t it someone on this forum that said Putin would never talk to Biden? And here he is tangling swords with Michael Dell. Meanwhile, Obama is dueling Rush…so there is no order.
Candide, I’m limiting myself to your hypos.
“Suppose I am supporting a few people. If I suddenly loose all sources of income, should I be blamed for causing a “crisis” in my dependents life?”
It depends. Why did you lose all sources of income? Were you a drunkard constantly later for work until you were fired? If so, then yes. Was it because a drunk driver run over you and now you are quadrapeligic with no health insurance? If so, of course not. It all depends on the particular circumstances.
“What if some of those dependents are older than Sergey Brin?”
Why is that relevant?
“Conversely, if Sergey Brin were to loose everything, should we blame him for causing a “crisis” for his parents and all the other people who benefit from his productivity?”
Once again, it depends on the circumstances.
<i“We don’t need help. We are not invalids. We don’t have limited mental capacity.”
Further, I didn’t get VVP telling a large business owner to “fuck off” when the business owner was asking “How can I do more business in Russia?” An estimated $290 billion of capital has fled Russia in the past few months. What a charming way to build confidence in business and attract investment in Russia.
I read the retranslation of Putin’s words and it still came across as “we don’t need you – get stuffed.” I’m surprised this didn’t get more play in the press, but Obama has taken most of the headlines recently.
“You can try to blame the US for the recession, but it is simply a matter of an economic downturn, which is an inherent feature of free market capitalist economies.”
There is no need to “try”. US is a flagship of market capitalist or at least claims to be. So it’s correct to say that it was the fault of the captain that the whole fleet is heading reefs.
PS. As Dell vs Putin. It was very stupid question in the first place. And wrong translation in the second. If Dell’s boss doesn’t know “how” – how Putin can help him? In fact his advice to “fuck off” was really kind in such situation. At least it gave some publicity to the Dell
“Dramatic overstatement.”
You can keep saying that all you want, and Greenspan can keep saying the opposite.
Nobody knows what caused the Great Depression; it is a matter of hot debate. Quit acting like you know what you caused it, because you don’t.
“For me it’s interesting that the economic/financial experts who called it right early on (the so-called doomsayers like Roubini) are not being apocalyptic in the long term.”
That the Obama stimulus package makes the New Deal look like small change might have something to do with that.
Wasn’t it someone on this forum that said Putin would never talk to Biden? And here he is tangling swords with Michael Dell. Meanwhile, Obama is dueling Rush…so there is no order.
Tess, that was me. What I actually said was not that Putin wouldn’t talk to Biden but that a revival of something like the Gore-Chernomyrdin Commission was made less likely by the fact that (I doubt) VVP would like to be tied into an institutionalized series of meetings that puts him on a par with the US Vice-President.
My point t challenge the assumption that “youth” are inherently progressive. Historically, youth organizations tend to be conservative organizations used by states or people who believe in nationalism.
Sean, you’ve obviously thought about this a lot more than I have, but I think you need to distinguish between school-aged youth (e.g., the Boy Scouts), who are generally organized by adults and whose organizations are therefore more conservative; and university-aged youth, who are responsible for the stereotype of youth as progressives – probably because their own organizations (as opposed to the ones created/funded by political elders) do tend to be more progressive or anti-establishment.
To my:
“For me it’s interesting that the economic/financial experts who called it right early on (the so-called doomsayers like Roubini) are not being apocalyptic in the long term.”
Chris wrote:
“That the Obama stimulus package makes the New Deal look like small change might have something to do with that.”
Perhaps. I have no idea how in per capita basis (and in today’s dollars) the New Deal compares to what is being spent today. My point, though, is that while some folks are assuming that this is the beginning of a total collapse (I think Ivanov is in that category), experts like Roubini, well known for being among those who were correct about where things were heading, are NOT talking in such apocalyptic terms. They say things will be bad, the worse the world has seen in a long time and so on, but they also say that in few years things will pretty much get back on track. In other words, the US will not fall apart a la USSR, stock markets will still be operating, and so on.
Lyndon, that’s a good point. One thing is to be a teenage Boy Scout and another is to be a 21-year-old college student. Heck, some of these radical 21-year-old organizers were probably Boy Scouts when they were 14. (I’m using Boy Scouts in a generic way to refer to youth organizations created by adults.)
It sure wasn’t Russia.
It wasn’t. But Russia’s economic woes are laregly of their own making. The financial crisis didn’t directly affect Russia so much (hence the smugness of Russians at the beginning, and the speculation that Russia might be called on to bail out the west), but once the west stopped buying oil, gas, and industrial commodities (which is pretty much all Russia produces) and banks started being far more careful who they lent to or stopped lending altogether, Russia found itself in deep trouble.
I read the retranslation of Putin’s words and it still came across as “we don’t need you – get stuffed.”
This has been Putin’s motto in the oil and gas business for the past 5 years. Now he is finding Shell aren’t paying for Sakhalin II completion and expansion costs, Exxon have walked away from the Sakhalin I expansion project, BP abandoned the Sakhalin IV prospect, and Gazprom’s flagship Shtokhman project has been pushed back 3 years before it even got started with the sole progress to date being a topside refurbishment which is a couple of years overdue, unfinished, with the budget blown.
Russian gas must be the safest commodity in the world right now, the chances of much of it seeing the light of day or the inside of a pipeline any time soon are looking pretty slim.
Off topic:
http://www.themoscowtimes.com/article/600/42/374157.htm
A funny and yet not so funny story.
I think you need to distinguish between school-aged youth (e.g., the Boy Scouts), who are generally organized by adults and whose organizations are therefore more conservative; and university-aged youth . . .
This is an important point to remember though my first impulse it to question exactly how much control adults actually have. And sometimes groups organized by youth end up becoming led by adults. The Komsomol is example. The first general secretaries of the Komosomol were in their early 20s, but after the 1930s they were older and older. The growing gap between leaders and rank and file was a growing concern in my period. Then there is also the fact that it was Party sponsored and “directed” after 1921. (I use the quotes because this was more a hope than a reality for Komsomol orgs below the provincial level.)
Interestingly, the Pioneers, at least in the 1920s (I don’t know about later) were mostly ran by Komsomol youths in the teens and 20s. The first nine Pioneer secretaries were in their 20s. I wonder if anyone ever considered this.
Still, I still think that this idea of progressive youth is a mostly post-1960s phenomenon based on all these social scientific panic/youth crisis studies in the 1970s. Most youth orgs before then were either created or sponsored by adults even when they were ran by youths. This also goes for left wing youth auxiliaries of socialist/communist parties.
Nevertheless, I am uncomfortable with the assumption that youth are inherently more radical or progressive as the interviewer implies. For example, at UCLA we have far more Conservative and Christian student organizations than radical ones. I think it depends on the political constellation of the times and the place these groups are operating in.
I was a cadet for 6 years in the UK’s Army Cadet Force. Looking back, it was purely a brainwashing exercise into persuading teenagers that they should become cannon fodder as soon as they turn 17, but overall it was a very positive experience and immensely enjoyable. Unlike most youth organisations such as the Boy Scouts which needed to organise a raffle to buy a new tent, the AFC had money as it was paid for by the MOD. I’d not say we had the best kit (mostly Falklands-era castoffs) but we had some awesome trips and did far more than most organisations.
It wasn’t. But Russia’s economic woes are laregly of their own making.
Too true and hopefully this will hit home (I mean people would get it) some day. A couple of years ago if not more Gref warned that Russia was going to hit a wall if it does not improve the oil/gas infrastructure. Greed of the Putin clan chased away the only thing that could help – foreign investment.
Now Gref’s heir apparently talks about raising import duties. In a country that produces precious little consumer goods, it will hit like a sledgehammer but would Putin and Co care? Would they even understand enough to care?
I was talking to my friends in the freight business and it appears that import flows slowed to a crawl already. The middle price bracket is being squeezed out leaving either lowest cost or high cost luxury items.
As for US being the source of Russia’s problems, yes, Russia can absolutely have it both ways – look at what happened to ruble over the last 4-5 months. It went from under 24 to over 36 in less then half a year. This is depreciation of 50%. I remember how smug Russian media sounded just a little while ago talking about 50% depreciation of hrivna. Not surprisingly, I am being asked about impending switch to Amero all the time.
It is always US’s fault. More specifically, I am being told often enough, the fault of jewish bankers in NY. What a surprise.
“It wasn’t. But Russia’s economic woes are laregly of their own making.”
Right. It is purely coincidental that it is taking place at a time when all, give or take, economies in the Northern Hemisphere are having the same woes. On the other hand, the American and German and British and Chinese crises are totally unrelated to their own policies.
“that while some folks are assuming that this is the beginning of a total collapse”
Not even the Great Depression was a total collapse. Actually the economic collapse of the USSR wasn’t total either. “Total” means “everything.” I don’t know why you’re dragging the future survival of the US into this.
It is purely coincidental that it is taking place at a time when all, give or take, economies in the Northern Hemisphere are having the same woes.
These places aren’t going to get hit half as hard as Russia is. The reasons why Russia will get hit twice as hard as most other places, and will take twice as long to recover, are entirely of their own making.
“Not even the Great Depression was a total collapse. Actually the economic collapse of the USSR wasn’t total either. “Total” means “everything.””
You are right, Chris. What I was trying to say is that even the experts who we were derided as doomsayers and now are congratulated as wisely prescient do NOT think the US is heading into the equivalent of the Great Depression. They think it will be very bad, but not as bad as what the US went through in the 1930s.
“I don’t know why you’re dragging the future survival of the US into this.”
Not because of you and perhaps because of nobody in this blog (I’m not sure about Ivanov), but some folks do maintain that the world’s economical/financial system (and especially the US) has entered into a downward spiral that will prove worse than the Great Depression. They are not saying that this might happen in the future, but that basically it’s already happening. Some of it, frankly, sounds like wishful thinking. I’m not particularly fond of how things are run in today’s global economy. There are plenty of iniquities and inequalities as well as all the up and down cycles. However, I think that collapse dreamers do not take into account the resiliency of the system as a whole.
(Incidentally, a recent New Yorker article somewhat amusingly describes some of the US based collapse dreamers.)
The reasons why Russia will get hit twice as hard as most other places, and will take twice as long to recover, are entirely of their own making.
And then there is China. Reports the FT:
That’s an estimated 20 million instantly unemployed. And given the rural unrest in China over the last years I don’ expect them to take it quietly.
So Tim by your formulation is China’s woes “entirely of their own making”? After all they chose to be an export-oriented market.
Just to preempt, I’m not saying that China’s problems are the fault of the US or Europe. Given globalization how hard individual economies are hit isn’t entirely of their own making. In a lot of ways it depends on how they are positioned within the entire system.
Sean, your implied juxtaposition of China vs. Russia is very telling.
Since China is a manufacture export driven economy, it will recover as fast as the West will. Russia on the other hand, being a commodity export driven, will not. I think that is what Tim is saying in part.
In addition, Russia is chasing the ephemeral superpower status of times past at the expense of sound policies. The rigid vertical Putin installed to feed his cronies serves no other purpose and will likely backfire.
“I was a cadet for 6 years in the UK’s Army Cadet Force.”
I just checked their website, Tim. For what is worth, I would have probably enjoyed it too.
Since China is a manufacture export driven economy, it will recover as fast as the West will.
I don’t know. After reading all these articles in the FT about the return of protectionism (as symbolized by Obama’s “Buy American” clause in the stimulus package. What American products does he want to us to buy, pray tell? I don’t think that there is anything that isn’t made, assembled, or has parts from outside the US), I wonder how well China will fare. Still China holds a lot of US bonds so China and the US are in an interest symbiosis. Given this, all this protectionism talk might be political fluff.
China’s problems, however, go beyond its ability to recover. It’s economic boom has not been a pretty process for the vast majority of Chinese as shown by the rather large violent protests and riots in rural areas. Now with the potential loss of remittances from migrant laborers, it will only drive a rural population further down than it already is. So when it comes to recovery, my question is: For whom?
True about Russia seeking to bolster its self esteem by seeking superpower status. But I don’t see Putin’s system backfiring for those who’ve mostly benefited from it: his cronies. That is the beauty when the state and business are joined at the hip. When the latter flounders, the former steps in and props it up. But the Russians aren’t alone on this strategy . . . It just may cost them more because their capital is even more fictitious than in the West.
I don’t know. After reading all these articles in the FT about the return of protectionism (as symbolized by Obama’s “Buy American” clause in the stimulus package. What American products does he want to us to buy, pray tell?
I know, scary stuff. Over the last decade we sort of forgot who were traditional protectionists with GOP trying to out-dem the Dems in the xenophobic department. Not surprisingly, why have a pseudo protectionist when you can have a real one. This in my opinion is the biggest potential dangerous fallout of the economic downturn. Predictably, economies hardest hit will try to rally behind protectionism and will get hammered even worse. I am afraid this is the road Russia will take. For all it’s claims of “having its own way” it is predictably inane in its policies
It’s economic boom has not been a pretty process for the vast majority of Chinese
This is true about every early capitalist development. Only after a certain mass is achieved does capitalism start really trickling down. Neither Russia nor China is there yet. In addition, China still has to drop communism. I know, it is doing it slowly and most likely will not have the shock of abandoning a religion, but still..
But I don’t see Putin’s system backfiring for those who’ve mostly benefited from it: his cronies.
It will for some. Боливар не выдержит двоих. Putin will have to throw some of them to the dogs just like any emperor would do. If he is good about it, he will keep the family taken care of while the man accidentally slips on a banana peel and falls on a sword. Repeatedly.
I think Dima will be the first to go.
What American products does he want to us to buy, pray tell?
I dunno. Missiles and medicine, perhaps?
There are plenty of directories of American-made products.
http://www.americansworking.com/
and
http://www.madeinusa.org/
In many cases, these are small businesses. If you really want to, you can find most of your daily consumable products Made in USA. Soaps, shampoos, food, etc. If you take the time to look, you can get most of your clothing Made in USA also. Electronics and heavy manufactured goods becomes more tricky.
Some people are quite fanatical about this, and they find a way to make it work. But it is like avoiding high fructose corn syrup – you’ll have to read lables, research, and find specific (and often more expensive) products that meet your requirements.
This got me thinking a bit more on this topic.
Another site for finding Made in USA products:
http://www.usstuff.com/index.htm
Interesting website, but I think it is behind the times with many of the dates it cites.
With electronics you’ll often find the product assembled in the US, but with foreign parts.
Well, personally, I’m starting with what I eat and feed the family. Sorry Chile – no to your apples and grapes. Pasteurized domestic cheese cannot compare to the French imported; but, some sacrifices are necessary. Of course, it’s easy here in CA because there are so many farmer’s markets. Coffee is an exception. For the first time in California, I’m planning a vegetable garden. Buying the fish emulsion fertilizer today. Mother-in-law is here again, so she is contributing all her late 90s survivalist dacha gardening know-how.
Forgot to add that we’re having a drought this year. Don’t know if I’ll be able to water, though.
‘Evian’ is absolutely the best for gardening.
I think I got it!
If Sean ever stops to entertain us with his blog articles, he will cause an enormous emotional crisis among people who have grown accustomed to his regular installments and rely on him to fill the emptiness of their existences. I, for one, fully intend to hold Sean responsible for any delays and/or lapses from his usual excellence.
Sean, do you realize you didn’t produce a new article for almost 4 days now? Get to work, you epistolar pig!
While Sean is writing for Candid, could anyone suggest an English(or amerikasnkiy) equivalent of internet phrases
Убей cебя апстену
и
Выпей йаду
?????
So Tim by your formulation is China’s woes “entirely of their own making”? After all they chose to be an export-oriented market.
They are, but I don’t think they had much choice: the only route to prosperity for China is the one it took, which is to maximise its comparative advantage in the globalised economy. I am sure there is much it could have done better, but the overall approach of positioning itself to provide a huge array of goods and value-added services to the rest of the world was IMO a sound one. It is not really China’s fault that its customers go skint, but it can take comfort in knowing that as soon as they have money again, Chinese products will be in demand and foreign investment will flow once again.
In the case of Russia, it built huge obstacles to internal trade and deterred foreign investment. Even before the financial crisis, investment in Russia was carrying an ever increasing risk premimum and the only companies able to do serious business were a decreasing number of quasi-nationalised companies favoured by the Kremlin. Unlike China, the Russian could still be attracting huge amounts of foreign investment from the cash-rich western oil companies eager to develop Russia’s reserves. These are pretty much the only companies with cash ready to invest right now, and Russia was in a superb position to exploit this. Instead, they kicked out the only people who have money to invest and are struggling to keep their existing operations going whilst canning all future developments. Given a few years ago Russia had BP, Exxon, and Shell all prepared to pour money into Russia, money which would have continued to flow throughout this current crisis, the situation which Russia now finds itself in is a result of idiotic nationalistic policies entirely of their own making.
As a country with little choice but to rely on the west as a customer, China could not escape the worst of the financial crisis. As a country uniquely positioned to attract investment from the only people with piles of cash, Russia had an opportunity to lessen the effects but instead chose to worsen them.
BTW Sean, I agree with what you are saying about China.
Pasteurized domestic cheese cannot compare to the French imported; but, some sacrifices are necessary
The cheese-makers of Vermont are deeply insulted by your suggestion that their fine domestic efforts do not compare to their moldy imported frog competitors from across the pond.
There are very few things in life that I like more than Cabot creamery extra sharp cheese. My father-in-law even says it makes a fine addition to our arrangement of zakuski.
Убей cебя апстену
и
Выпей йаду
4Q, ESAD!
Thanks, Wally.
But I don’t think it’s equivalent. It’s just abbreviations of regular phrases.
PS. Nothing personal (at least against anyone here). I promise
Sorry to say that, but I think you are dead wrong, Tim. China’s export is not the same as China’s economy. The ruling guys were clever enough to get as much as possible from western “samaritans” and buy enough time to develop the hugest market in the world – the market of 2 bil. buyers.
Plus don’t forget how much US owes to China now (well, the rest of the western world as well).
Plus don’t forget how much US owes to China now (well, the rest of the western world as well).
Uh, how much? I’ve forgotten. Or probably, never knew in the first place. Or more likely, was told, and laughed.
I didn’t know companies mentioned above are “samaritans”….
Tim, I also know why and how did they got contracts in the first place. So these are their problems. What starts as shit – ends in shit…
All those US companies that really wanted to develop fair business – failed (at least in the RFE).
“in California, I’m planning a vegetable garden.”
That’s great, Tess. With plenty of snow on top of frozen ground, Vermont is weeks aways from such activities. People often scoff at the “grow your own food” stuff, but if you have the space (not much of it is needed) and the will, it makes perfect sense and it makes a difference.
According this this NY Times article (http://www.nytimes.com/2009/01/08/business/worldbusiness/08yuan.html) China owns about $1 trillion of US debt. Apparently, they are getting sour on purchasing it. Together, China and Japan own 47% of US debt.
Back to journalists being pressured not to report bad economic news/blamed for talking up bad economic news, I was just listening to the Beeb which covered a report that its business editor has been ‘quizzed’ by “The Treasury Select Committee is taking evidence about the role of journalists in the banking crisis.”
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/7870233.stm
It looks a bit of a global sport now (the famous south korean ‘Medusa’ blogger is being shafted etc.).
Meanwhile, Fitch has downgraded Russia’s credit rating from BBB+ to BBB and “What is more, the agency says further cuts are still possible.”:
http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2009/02/04/52042/russia-from-rags-to-riches-to-rags/
Thanks, Wally.
But I don’t think it’s equivalent. It’s just abbreviations of regular phrases.
My lovely wife suggested it as equivalent, as the abbreviations cited ARE internet slang in “Amerkanskiy” … similar to LOL, IMHO, and so on. She has a specialists degree in linguistics, so I defer to her on this matter. However, neither she nor I are teenage boys nor live in our mothers basement, so we might not be the most current on the latest internet meme or slang.
Other than those style of abbreviations and l33t, there really aren’t many turns of phrase in English internet slang that I know of. There are internet memes and running gags, although they are less often phrased-based. “All your base are belong us” is a phrase-based example. Non-phrase or word based examples would be goatse, lolcats, Rickrolling, etc.
You might want to ask a 4chan user. http://www.4chan.org/
“What starts as shit – ends in shit…”
That’s what I hope for my garden! If I’m able to water it. Thanks for the encouragement, Kolya. A big motivation is to provide something for my svui-croff to pour her energy into – that isn’t us. Otherwise we may have to put her back on the plane tomorrow.
“All those US companies that really wanted to develop fair business – failed (at least in the RFE).”
I’m not a defender of the oily “Seven Sisters” and their good works in Russia. I’ll leave that to Tim. But, I’m still thinking about the sleazy salesman Michael Dell and his seemingly disingenuous offer “How can we help?” If I didn’t know more of the background, I’d accept it at that. However, I do know that Dell was a pioneering tech firm in RFE, and that by meeting the demand for PC’s in the region, it contributed to the very tech industry that Putin was bragging about. I’m not saying it’s robust. But, if you follow the line of IBS from Dell distributor to Russian tech titan, Putin has something to thank Michael Dell for. Maybe just being on the stage with him was that thanks. (Was it really a planted question- a set-up; Dell giving Putin the stage to say all those nice things about Russia’s tech position. He got to do his strong/witty/charming act; I was charmed again. But that’s my problem. Poemless too. Where is Poemless BTW?) Dell made money too of course. It was a win/win for a while. But, all good parents (and mothers-in-law) recede into the background when their job is done. So looking forward, Russia may have no need of Dell. But Dell’s 90s and 00s efforts were not a failure.
I think we all know why Sean’s been too busy to write something new…
http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5jHHLlyL1wpRPo3UfCZotdXhNUcMQD96475MO0
I think we all know why Sean’s been too busy to write something new…
These are indeed exciting times! And to think that the LA Times has a weekly blog devoted to 90210. I was a bit disappointed that Dixon and Silver got back together so quickly . . . Where’s the drama in that? Also Adrianna ability to get off of smack and handle a pregnancy all at 16 years old in a span of 3 episodes is a waste of a possibly good lurid story. They need to stretch it out. How can you rise again if you don’t really crash and burn. I also love how they kept hinting at abortion but never actually saying the word.
All those US companies that really wanted to develop fair business – failed (at least in the RFE).
Don’t be silly, you are only considering US oil companies, and ignoring that the Russian government essentially pulled the rug out from under them … and every other foreign oil or gas company that they deal with.
The US exported $7.4 billion worth of goods to Russia in 2007, which was a 57% increase over the previous year. That is despite Russian tariffs and out-right bans on certain US products.
But, I’m still thinking about the sleazy salesman Michael Dell and his seemingly disingenuous offer “How can we help?”
Despite the economic downturn, Michael Dell has $9 billion that he is looking to invest somewhere. Dell opened their first computer store in Russia in the autumn of 2007. I’m unsure how you attribute sleazy or disingenuous qualities to the man.
Regardless of what you think of the MD, it is striking to see a politician go out of his way to insult a wealthy businessman, who isn’t asking for a handout, when he asks how to do more business in your country.
I read that Putin’s words were mistranslated, although I couldn’t see much (if any) difference in tone in what he actually said, versus the original translation. I am left wondering if Putin heard something other than a cordial offer from Dell, or if he just wanted to piss down the neck of an American businessman.
I didn’t know companies mentioned above are “samaritans”….
Just because you are paranoid does not mean THEY are not out to get you after all.
After all these companies were set dead serious to rape and pillage Russia and deprive her of the natural resources. That until St Putin showed up with his lance…
Come, Nobody said anything about charitable Samaritans, ivanov. You are arguing with a straw man.
Obviously, Russia does not have enough resources (fiscal, managerial and technological) to develop its natural resources. It could have used western money and get a part of the pie or it could stiff the west trying to get the hole pie and… never getting it. It is all a matter of greed and Putin’s government turned out to be unreasonably greedy.
Wally…what I’m trying to say is that Dell came off as disingenuous/sleezy; but, in reality Dell has a longer history in Russia and that it is a success story. He’s probably met Putin many times, and they’re friends (a guess). Dell’s presence in Russia goes back well before 2007. Opening a boutique for retail sales does not mark a computer company’s entry to the enterprise sales market. When did Apple start opening retail stores in malls? Sony?
This company started as a Dell distributor in 1992.
http://www.ibs-company.com/content/eng/201/2019-article.asp
An amusing excerpt about Soviet market behavior (from the Marginal Revolution blog):
///
For most of us, it is hard to fathom the rationale for a market in burnt-out light bulbs. But in the scarcity-driven Soviet economy, the market was entirely reasonable. Light bulbs were rarely available to individual consumers, but were obtainable for state-sponsored activities. Thus, it would be difficult to purchase a light bulb for a new lamp in one’s home, while burnt-out bulbs in state-run offices or factories were routinely replaced. So if someone purchased a new lamp and needed a bulb, he would buy a used light bulb for a small fee and replace a functioning bulb at work with the dud. He would then take the functioning bulb home for the new lamp, while the burnt-out bulb at the office/factory would be replaced with a new functioning bulb. Meanwhile, the maintenance person at the office/factory would take the used bulb and sell it on the used light bulb market.
///
When was the used light bulb market active? I presume it was early in the Soviet period, since I have no memories of this scarcity being acute. I do remember other sudden shortages (дефициты) flaring up – salt and mustard were the most bizarre.
That being said, market will always find a way to corrupt a faulty distribution system. Trading in favours and in access to public largess ate the USSR from inside and will do the same with the “stimulus” Obama is pushing. The more government takes over distribution the more corrupt it becomes.
The light bulb example is funny…and I usually don’t agree with Cyrill…but, I’m on the same basic train of thought. That nationalism plus a lack of confidence in currencies and resulting trade difficulties and inequities could result in product distribution problems. Wasn’t that one of Stalin’s big problems: trying to feed all the people who came to the big cities to build the new industrial society? The $$ motivation for the people still on the farms to grow and send the food wasn’t there? I don’t think that will happen here; but, it’s the ‘classic’ example of a distribution problem.
Cyrill and Tess, from what I just dug out, it was the academic Vladimir Treml who liked to tell the light-bulb story. What time frame? I have no idea.
To read the post where I lifted that text from, go to Marginal Revolution–a blog by two economists with libertarian (but not dogmatic) leanings:
http://www.marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2009/02/markets-in-everything-hardly-anything.html
Talking about shortages, probably the nastiest lines I have seen were the ones for tobacco in Moscow back in 1990. Besides plenty of pushing and shoving, I saw a few scuffles as well as a nasty fight. Made me happy that I was never a smoker.
Kolya, Don’t you remember liquor store lines after Gorby decided to launch his anti-drinking campaign in 1985 with the main purpose to set up Grishka Romanov for a fall. Those lines were nasty.
I didn’t know companies mentioned above are “samaritans”….
Nor did I. Are they?
Tim, I also know why and how did they got contracts in the first place. So these are their problems. What starts as shit – ends in shit…
Yes, they got their favourable contracts because at the time they were signed Russia was chaotic, unpredictable, facing economic ruin, and desperate for foreign investment. Oh, how times have changed!
My best regards to her!
But I thought that someone with English/British origin found something in his language that has same meaning.
Ciryll. I’m arguing with Tim
I’m not silly… as I’m not talking about oil companies. I said – US companies in RFE. Russian Far East. Like Alaska Airlines, Western Family and many others from the West Coast.
As to Russian government – well these bastards pulled the rug and hit with club every domestic business. And this is the real problem. Tim can confirm that
Tim. You just sounded like they were. Like “They came with money but Russians turned them down”
It’s market and the only – THE ONLY – reason they came was to get more money. They don’t give a shit about the country they are coming to.
PS. As to China – I wouldn’t laugh at them at all. And Britain will pay for the shoe, believe me…
Bulb Story is BS.
It was not a problem to buy a bulb in the store. But what for if you can just take it from your work?
теория относительности – Russian style: Что человек на работе делает, то он себе домой и относит.
Oh I thought you meant Radio Free Europe (RFE).
No, I mean Дальний Восток.
I understand… своя-кровь is like nuclear reaction
)) Never stops and deadly …
I remember many Soviet deficits: booze deficit, food staples deficit, clothes deficit, almost everything else deficit, except I can’t recall lightbulb deficit. Must have been before 1960-s for sure.
Ciryll. I’m arguing with Tim
No, you were arguing with what you said, not Tim.
Tim. You just sounded like they were. Like “They came with money but Russians turned them down”
It’s market and the only – THE ONLY – reason they came was to get more money. They don’t give a shit about the country they are coming to.
They came with money to do business which would have been of enormous benefit to both Russia and the companies involved. Naturally, Russia could not bear the thought of a win-win situation, much preferring to adhere to a strongest-takes-all mentality, and turned them down. Cyrill got it right: Russians would prefer 100% of nothing than 50% of something.
Tim.
I would agree with you but!
But Japanese business has been active in RFE for decades before and now. They don’t complain – and they are getting what they need. In fact they are getting it in the ratio 10/90 (where only 10 goes to Russia)…
And I know this not from newspaper nor magazine nor book.
But Japanese business has been active in RFE for decades before and now.
Which companies, exactly? And where? On Sakhalin, 90km from Japan, I have heard of no more than four Japanese companies operating:
1) CTSD, main EPC contractor for Sakhalin Energy’s LNG facility;
2) Nippon Express, a subcontractor of CTSD;
3) Michenogo Bank, quit the place last year in a hurry;
4) An independent Japanese group who built the Santa Hotel, forced to concede ownership and leave after threats of violence a few years ago.
And I know this not from newspaper nor magazine nor book.
Then from where?
From the ground, Tim, from the ground.
RFE is somewhat bigger that your platform or even Sakhalin
Well I have to admit that I was in Yuzhniy only once – in 1975.
And just for LOL
“China may overtake U.S. as No.1 car market
By Ally From:Gasgoo.comFebruary 05, 2009
Shanghai, February 5 (Gasgoo.com) China has likely passed the U.S. in monthly vehicle sales for the first time in history, a trend that could also make China into the world’s largest new car market this year, the Associated Press reported Wednesday.”
From the ground, Tim, from the ground.
Again: which companies, where?
RFE is somewhat bigger that your platform or even Sakhalin
Yes, it is: yet Sakhalin has closer connections with Japan than any other part save the Kuril Islands. If the Japanese are in Russia, they’d be in Sakhalin.
Tess, you asked about Poemless. I suspect she now has a highly secret gig: Special White Houses Liaison Officer. Please note the plural in White Houses.
A nice short article on Baburova:
http://www.economist.com/obituary/displaystory.cfm?story_id=13055783
I’m glad they dedicated a whole piece to her. Yeah, yeah, some may scoff at it for romanticizing her and remark about the irony that it was an Economist piece. I’m glad they published it, though.
“She seems to think that youth are somehow inherently against the state and for change.”
Indeed they are. However, there is no contradiction between this statement and the fact that most well known youth organizations accepted state-imposed superstructure. This is simply evolution in action. Youth groups that reject conservative superstructure simply do not survive long. They self-destruct quickly. To understand why, re-read “Lord of the flies” as necessary.
According this this NY Times article (http://www.nytimes.com/2009/01/08/business/worldbusiness/08yuan.html) China owns about $1 trillion of US debt. Apparently, they are getting sour on purchasing it. Together, China and Japan own 47% of US debt.
———————————————-
I couldn’t help noticing people started talking about the US more than about Russia in this thread.
Why would China and Japan get sour about purchasing US debt? It’s like gold, right? It would be a different story if the debt came from Russia in the form of worthless Russian ruble-denominated debt notes.
Dima,
People talk more about the US nowadays because that’s where the action is. Besides, it’s extremely relevant to discussion about youthful ‘progressive’ movements enywhere.
Observing the latest Obama’s flailing and whining we can all see what happens when youthful idealism and naivete slam face first into hard reality.
Interestingly, as the US is careening deep into the Left ditch, Moscow seems to bear into Conservative direction, with Germany following suit.
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/5b3cf80a-f2ac-11dd-abe6-0000779fd2ac.html
These are interesting times indeed. Alas, Sean shrugged and went John Galt on us all…
Candide,
I agree with your assessment. On that note and subject, – I’ve discovered for myself Ilana Mercer:
http://www.ilanamercer.com/newsite/index.php
There are still people in the USA who can think.
The times are interesting indeed (Chinese curse: “May you live in interesting times”).
Cheers, RP
P.S.: Anti-spam word: “Connect”
“and went John Galt on us all…”
Pardon my ignorance, but what does that mean?
“Who is John Galt?”
http://www.google.com/search?hl=en&q=Who+is+John+Galt%3F&aq=f&oq=
Oh no, Kolya, don’t ask don’t tell. Not with too many lefties around these quarters
Okay, thanks. I have never read Ayn Rand. Years ago, in a dorm-like building there was an earnest fellow who kept on pushing her books on me. Initially it was intriguenly amusing to talk to him, then it became tiresomely creepy. It was as if he was trying to convert me. It took him much too long to realize that I’m not good material. At that point, though, he totally switched off. I became invisible to him, even though we could not help but bump into each other several times a week. That sums up my Ayn Rand experience. In any event, I’m glad that she’s not in vogue anymore.
I’ve only read her We the Living. I liked it. I remember reading an article in Vanity Fair a few years ago that Alan Greenspan was in her inner circle. Explains a lot . . .
Two trivia facts,
“Atlas shrugged” is ranked #150 on Amazon.
Ayn Rand was born Alisa Rozenbaum in St. Petersburg.
Sean,
Actually the fact that Alan Greenspan was in Rand’s inner circle explains diddly squat about the man. In his Treasury Secretary role he was anything but Randian.