Russian Unemployment Rising, Fast

Experts believe that social unrest tends to occur when unemployed surpasses the 10 percent mark.

Well, watch for Iceland. It’ll come to that number in February. I’m really concern about Internet.

There’s just one problem: Where is the money going to come from?

Money for WHAT? Are druzinniki supposed to be paid? I don’t think so. In Soviet days they were “awarded” with extra day for paid vacation. But today?

As Valerii Vorchchev, a member of the expert council on the Commission of Human Rights of the Russian Federation, told Kommersant, the economic crisis raises the possibility that these militias with be used “together with OMON to disperse protests…

Moron.
Main purpose of druzhinniki – to be a walking and talking CCTV’s replacement. Do you know that fake CCTV is as effective as real one in term of repelling potential “criminals”?
But not a single OMON chief would ever agree to work side by side with “civilians”. Too risky from all points of view.

Walmart is cancer to small businesses, acid to the idyllic downtown Main Street, and a snake oil cure for disparity. Walmart may have branded itself as that blue vested, smily faced cornicopia of consumerism, but its real face is a low wage and viciously anti-union substitute for the loss of well paid jobs. I urge Russians to beware.

Is Wal-Mart going to bring more of these problems than Auchan, Metro, or even Spar? I actually think Wal-Mart is a little bit late to the game.

Walmart is cancer to small businesses, acid to the idyllic downtown Main Street, and a snake oil cure for disparity. Walmart may have branded itself as that blue vested, smily faced cornicopia of consumerism, but its real face is a low wage and viciously anti-union substitute for the loss of well paid jobs. I urge Russians to beware.

I suppose the Russians should just carry on with the umpteen small kiosks selling exactly the same overpriced Chinese tat and keep flying to Seoul every time they want to buy something decent?

A Wal-Mart in most Russian towns would be a God-send. It’s easy to badmouth a supermarket when there is one in town; try living in a place without one. I have, twice, 25 years apart.

Agree with Tim.

The guys don’t know that there is another Russia outside Moscow ) (joke of course)….

I think there plenty of alternatives between Walmart and the kiosks.

Russian employment is growing fast…

Quick note: You might wanna fix that lede, dude.

More substantively, it seems that SRB is sending mixed messages. On the one hand, you make a sport of poo-pooing Western observers who see revolution in Russia around every corner. Then yesterday you start quoting Gramsci on instability and the Russian regime’s reliance on domination to achieve rule, and today it’s about unemployment numbers and social unrest (why no quote from Gramsci on the material basis of consent, lazy bones?).

Seriously, are you rethinking your established line on the unlikelihood of major social upheaval in Russia? If so, I’d (selfishly) be interested in some sort of reflection piece (though I know that you shouldn’t be spending the time on such a thing–dissertate, dissertate!).

If you’re just stirring the pot, that’s fine, but it gets confusing for people who try to sort out something like a “line” from blogs. That is, readers who have spent to much time reading Party documents, radical pamphlets and such things. And I know I’m not the only one of those in these parts.

A Wal-Mart in most Russian towns would be a God-send.

Katja agrees.

Seriously, are you rethinking your established line on the unlikelihood of major social upheaval in Russia?

Sean is too clever to sell an “established” line on something like that.

I think there plenty of alternatives between Walmart and the kiosks.

There are alternatives in Yuzhno-Sakhalinsk, but not plenty. We have two supermarkets selling inconsistently stocked items at 50-100% more than you’d pay in any developed country.

If you want to buy garbage bags, a light bulb, a loaf of bread, tin foil, some blank CDs, washing powder, and some cough syrup you’d have to go to at least 5, probably 6, different “shops” and you’d come away without at least 1 item. Some might enjoy the quaintness of old-fashioned high-streets where each shop was run by a little old man who knew your name, but the reality for us here is we leave work at 6pm and spend the next hour trudging through icy streets to various “shops” where you’ll find the word “netu” is more common than the word “hello”, they sell eggs in f***ing carrier bags instead of proper egg-boxes, half of what they had in stock last time is now gone (Kogda budet? Ne znayu!), and what you end up having to buy is of crap quality, made in China, but overpriced because the customs officials needed their cut.

Give me a Tesco any time, if they opened one in Yuzhno-Sakhalinsk and could run it properly, it would be the most popular site in town by a mile and few would mourn the demise of what pass for shops we currently have.

Yes, sure unemployment is rising in Russia, fast, but .. er … is it only in Russia? Or maybe there other countries where unemployment is rising? Anybody wanna answer that?

Now back to Kasparov: several people called Kasparov “monkey” in here, while the same people called Robert Amsterdam’s Blog a trusted source of info about Russia (and unbiased of course). How come, Robert Amsterdam referred to

Kasparov’s article in WSJ:

http://www.robertamsterdam.com/2009/01/the_mad_bear_theory.htm

How come WSJ published Kasparov for that matter?

Here’s a puzzle for you then: What do Kasparov, Robert Amsterdam and Wall Street Journal have in common as far as Russia is concerned? Anyone?

Buster,

At times it gets even funnier. Different “themes” do tend to collide on this blog.

Who among the commenters of this blog called the Robert Amsterdam Blog a trusted and unbiased source of information?

Or maybe there other countries where unemployment is rising?

There are. But most of them don’t have a population half of whom supplement their income by shaking down the other half, a large chunk of whom live in a town with one employer in the form of a gigantic factory making stuff which nobody wants.

Actually, I think I’ve just described Detroit.

Tim, what you describe in some way sounds like Venezuela before Chavez. It was always corrupt but during the oil boom Venezuelans tolerated it partly because the money did manage to trickle down somewhat. Once oil prices went down, people became much less tolerant of all the financial abuses and graft. Chavez rode a wave of justifiable popular resentment right into the presidency. His timing was perfect. He was elected at the end of 1998 and oil prices have been going up and up. Corruption is terrible and crime is worse than ever (the murder rate is more than double from the time he won), but he’s a charismatic demagogue and all that oil money did have an effect. But what will happen now that the oil prices went drastically down? (A depressing reminder is that Mugabe, despite of all, still manages to be in power.)

It is ironic that Venezuela is not a desert like Saudi Arabia and yet besides oil there is little else. For decades they’ve been talking about “sembrar el petroleo” (“to saw their oil”, to use the oil money as seeds to cultivate agriculture, manufacturing, etc.) But nothing. The vast majority of Venezuela’s income comes from oil, and despite fertile soils and a year-round growing season Venezuela depends on food imports to feed itself.

“3) The means of governance in Russia is one where force outweighs consent.”

Personally, I don’t think this is true, and think you would be very hard-pressed to find examples of societies in which force outweighed consent. The force is, after all, being carried out by members of the society.

“4) The consent that does exist is maintained through populism rather than civil society.”

But this is true in most societies, isn’t it? (Even given the extreme vagueness of the term “civil society” — I assume it means here something like “self-motivated organization of individuals.”)

Perhaps this is too obvious to point out or too wrong-headed, but my first immediate objection to the creation of druzhiny was that they brought to mind chernosotentsy a bit too much (В Москве, Петербурге, Архангельске, Астрахани, Вологде, Гомеле, Екатеринославе, Киеве, Кишиневе, Минске, Одессе, Тифлисе, Ярославле черносотенцы создали свои “боевые дружины”, в которых состояли главным образом мелкие ремесленники, лавочники, дворники и даже деклассированные элементы. Своими противниками черносотенцы считали не только революционеров, но и Милюкова, Витте, Столыпина и стремились содействовать карательным органам самодержавия. Их “методы борьбы” — избиения демонстрантов, погромы, убийства из-за угла. — http://tomskhistory.lib.tomsk.ru/page.php?id=1779) If Grani is to be trusted (http://grani.ru/Society/Religion/m.145087.html), things could very easily head in that direction – and there would be even more reason to worry about violence against migrant workers than there is now…

I haven’t read the whole citation yet, but is there any similarity between these guys and the Black Hundreds other than the fact that they are both organized groups?

To be honest, I think the reflex to find some kind of counterpoint to anything in modern Russian society to something in pre-Revolutionary society to be strange, though people do it all the time — Putin is a “Tsar,” ethnic violence is a “pogrom” (even though in any other country it’s just an “ethnic clash” or “riot”), so and so is “like Stolypin” or whoever.

The previous comment was meant to be a response to kb, not Sean.

Wow kg, you have a pretty cool blog! Never saw it before.

Chrisius, I just happen to be sensitive to the language of these things and yeah – chernosotentsy had “druzhiny” and the fact that the ROC is endorsing the creation of their own brand of these (http://www.polit.ru/news/2008/11/21/nashi.html) and that MVD is welcoming their help (because the church and state aren’t already totally in bed with each other!) and that “Казачьи дружины обязаны также выбирать себе командира по согласованию с милицией” and that “внештатное сотрудничество с органами” had meant in BOTH pre-revolutionary and Soviet times “доносительство” and “провокаторство” all leads me to believe that this could be a scenario in which history might repeat itself – and I do think that it does so in Russia with a frequency and constancy found in few other places…
(And thanks for complimenting my little forsaken cul de sac of the intertubes ).

“Actually, I think I’ve just described Detroit.”

Contemplating this thread from Tim and Kolya, I was simultaneously listening to a radio interview with an economist/author on the topic of Obama’s stimulus plan:

1) First Larry Summers and others on Obama’s Economic team are consistently described by other talking-head economists as “a team of stars.” I found myself comparing them to Gaidar, Chubais and others of Yeltsin era. Theory-guys suddenly handed the charter to do a complete make-over on a real national economy. They should have our complete trust?? Not a lot of Americans are well-versed in what happened in late 1990s Russia. I hope these guys are – if only to understand how certain power-seekers might stir and take advantage of economic chaos.

2) Until now, I was thinking “Big Stimulus Package” = “New Deal”. (Wow, I really liked what Roosevelt’s Worker projects did for the National Park System). But, now I’m wondering if Big Stimulus Package = Stalin’s Five-Year Plan or Mao’s Great Leap Forward, which were both miserably blind to the realities of local implementation of grand schemes.

The Russia/Detroit/Venezuela thread had me thinking about how public works construction projects really work. Remember I’m originally from Chicago, where based on Blago’s recorded toll road negotiations, nothing has changed.

How can the next administration implement such a stimulus without creating a population half of whom supplement their income by shaking down the other half, and all that are forced to accept public works projects that are poorly planned, executed and eventually nobody wants.

Of course, Obama spent time as a Community Organizer in Chicago – so should know what he’s up against.

“Chrisius, I just happen to be sensitive to the language of these things and yeah – chernosotentsy had “druzhiny” and the fact that the ROC is endorsing the creation of their own brand of these (http://www.polit.ru/news/2008/11/21/nashi.html) and that MVD is welcoming their help (because the church and state aren’t already totally in bed with each other!) and that “Казачьи дружины обязаны также выбирать себе командира по согласованию с милицией” and that “внештатное сотрудничество с органами” had meant in BOTH pre-revolutionary and Soviet times”

Well the Cossacks are a particular case that I know something about since I used to entertain fantasies about writing a book on them, but I’m not going to go into it. Suffice it to say that the Cossack revival movement is very internally differentiated and as much (or more) of an ethnic movement as it is a political one.

I think this is all just surface similarity. One could as well (pulling an example out of my hat) talk about the KKK being like the Civil Rights movement. Let’s see — they were both self-organized, both buddy-buddy with the Baptist Church, both under surveillance by the FBI — hey, they’re virtually the same thing!

“Elite politics in Russia is a zero sum game. You are either in or you’re out. To me this hardly speaks of the existence of class consciousness.”

Not really true. Chubais is doing fine, as is Gaidar, though admittedly neither is really a mover and shaker.

To be honest I’m starting to doubt that such a thing as class consciousness exists outside of Marxist theory, where it makes sense given Marx’s historical metaphysics (I know Marxists like to think that they are steely-eyed materialists, but let’s get real). In that schema, it makes sense to talk about workers-as-a-class having a single common interest (abolishing capitalism), but I’m not so sure that that is the case in the real world. Actually this is one reason I stopped considering myself a Marxist (another being the Marxist opposition of society and state — something libertarians also like to do) which I think is unfounded).

“The Russia/Detroit/Venezuela thread had me thinking about how public works construction projects really work.”

Where was this thread, Tess? Ya propustil.

Or maybe there other countries where unemployment is rising?

There are. But most of them don’t have a population half of whom supplement their income by shaking down the other half, a large chunk of whom live in a town with one employer in the form of a gigantic factory making stuff which nobody wants.

Actually, I think I’ve just described Detroit.
———————————————-

You certainly have. This is a universal problem of an “industrial” society. The real problems begin though when the “factory” gets closed and the economy becomes based on people selling houses to each other and borrowing money.

…ethnic violence is a “pogrom”…

This could be because the word is sometimes used in Russian (by Russians) to describe any sort of riot. For example, I’ve seen the unrest in Riga described in comments in the Russian blogosphere as a “pogrom.” But I do agree with your general point about easy analogies promoting lazy thinking about Russia.

“This could be because the word is sometimes used in Russian (by Russians) to describe any sort of riot.”

I’ve wondered about this. (The violence in South Africa was also called a “pogrom” in the Russian and Ukrainian press, as were the riots in France.) But I really don’t think that Westerners (which is what I think we were talking about) don’t take their cue from this — very very few are aware of the meaning of the Russian word, and mostly are aware of it only insofar as it came from Jews fleeing the Russian Empire from the pogroms, err, ethnic violence.

Wow kg, you have a pretty cool blog! Never saw it before.

You’re just trying to get a date.

“idyllic downtown Main Street” – is there such a thing to be destroyed in Russia?

“You’re just trying to get a date.”

I’m in love with you, kg! Why won’t you return my emails?

‘”“idyllic downtown Main Street” – is there such a thing to be destroyed in Russia?’

There’s no such thing to be destroyed anywhere!

Ha! You’ll have to clarify what exactly you mean by material basis for support so we’re on the same page. Actually, I’ve been playing around with this idea of domination without hegemony for a while (blame Guha) and how it might pertain to Russia. I’m still not decided so you’ll have to bear with me because I’m still very much thinking it through.

Alas, I am, once again, away from my notes and my instant recall of a social theory seminar from 2003 is hazy. But I can tell you that the readings for the week were on Gramsci’s Prison Notebooks with selected commentary from J. Femia and A. Przeworski. And I think the bit on material basis of consent was from Gramsci’s commentary on Americanism and Fordism, and Przeworski developed this line. But without my notebooks and personal library, I’m only a shell of a thinker with floating citations in my head.

I found these two theses most interesting and most potentially generative for analysis:

3) The means of governance in Russia is one where force outweighs consent.

4) The consent that does exist is maintained through populism rather than civil society. This in my view makes that consent tenuous and fleeting.

Again, speaking selfishly, I’d be curious to this line of thought more developed, but I realize that this is a blog…

A sidenote: you sometimes chastise, half-jokingly I assume, the Russian ruling class (though I have my reservations about this term of analysis) for not boning up on their Gramsci and thinking seriously about rule. A sociologist-friend who works on party politics in India tells me that the leadership of both the right-wing fundamentalist BJP and the Marxist-Leninist CPI(M) read Gramsci and ask their organizers to read him so as to better understand how to capture civil society. For all that, Congress Party continues to bring home the votes with its dynastic line. Just something to think about.

“both the right-wing fundamentalist BJP and the Marxist-Leninist CPI(M) read Gramsci and ask their organizers to read him so as to better understand how to capture civil society.”

That’s not uncommon. Wasn’t Gramsci read by right-wingers in the US in the 60s and 70s?

That’s not uncommon. Wasn’t Gramsci read by right-wingers in the US in the 60s and 70s?

Chrisius Willyouevercutitoutwiththislastnamiusbi’essius,

News to me. If so, then it’s a better case, but I’ve never heard about US right-wingers explicitly disseminating Gramsci to organizers. I mean, I’ve heard it said that it seemed as though they were ripping a page from the sickly Italian genius. But I’ve never come across any documentation that this was a part of the game plan. Even from the neocons with lefty pasts.

But, now I’m wondering if Big Stimulus Package = Stalin’s Five-Year Plan or Mao’s Great Leap Forward, which were both miserably blind to the realities of local implementation of grand schemes.

I think comparison is not correct.

Stalin plans worked. If you don’t trust me – ask Adolf H.

Mao… well at least we should be thankful for his Great Leap that dragged China down. Just imagine situation when China followed same road as CCCP. In 70-s it will be same superpower as Soviet Union but only 4 times bigger.;)

And we’ll see soon how Obama will manage the last remaining old superpower.

“But I’ve never come across any documentation that this was a part of the game plan. Even from the neocons with lefty pasts.”

I have heard it claimed, but have never seen it substantiated.

BTW Courtappointedrussiafriendlius is an old and honorable name going back to the time of the Stewarts, and it shall not be changed!

John Stewarts?

No, these Stewarts, I think he must mean.

‘”“idyllic downtown Main Street” – is there such a thing to be destroyed in Russia?’

There’s no such thing to be destroyed anywhere!

My town has an idyllic downtown “Main Street” and Market Square, full of cute, privately owned/operated shops, a rustic old church, several outdoor cafes, many restaurants and pubs, all within short walking distance of quaint New Englandy single family homes lined with white picket fences. We even have John Paul Jones former house here and a living museum at Strawberry Banke.

Actually, it is generally quite lovely this time of year, but we’re over-run with tourists in the Summer and Autumn.

“My town has an idyllic downtown “Main Street” and Market Square, full of cute, privately owned/operated shops, a rustic old church, several outdoor cafes,”

I think I saw your town get stolen by aliens on an old Twilight Zone episode.

I am not aware of conservative types ever embracing Gramsci. Destroy virtue for political gain, great idea, that one. I don’t think you can be a “jingoist” or a traditionalist and still be an admirer of Gramsci. If someone could provide me with a serious rightwing version of Alinsky, I would be open to changing my mind though.

Sometimes I wonder if sock puppetry is not more common on this site. Tess, your post had a different perspective that I thought I would ever read from you. Interesting, but I think you might be a bit myopic on the public works thing. Here in flyover country, there is basically no corruption associated with public works. The last scandal I am aware of in my state (NE), was some 20 years ago and ended up with the contractor, once being found out, committing suicide out of shame.

Actually nothing about the new administration so far has caused me much concern except for Holder being put forward for the AG position. F*cking corrupt authoritarian POS. Well that and the climate czar guy, but if the current weather keeps up, he is never going to see the light of day anyway.

—-
“Wow kg, you have a pretty cool blog! Never saw it before.

You’re just trying to get a date. ”

Heh, that was the first thought that came to my mind as well.

—-
While I have no dog in the fight with the whole Walmart vs. small business thing. It seems to me Walmart is simply progress, like the assembly line or the cotton gin. Small stores are inefficient, requiring additional time and money to patronize. Sure you might feel better, but money is money. Have you seen some of the deals that Walmart has on liquor? or beef jerky for that matter? And it’s good beef jerky too.

“money is money”

That’s one of the key issues, isn’t? I can understand why Tim would love to have a Walmart-like big box store in Sakhalin. From what he wrote, Sakhalin has no towns with quaint main street mom-and-pop stores. Nebraska, from what I remember from the few times driving through it, is very much a car culture. People there sort of assume that they’ll have to drive a certain distance to get to anything. But how about places where there still is this more old fashioned feel? There are many such places in New England. In purely economic terms, big box stores also make sense in such places. But you cannot put in dollars the destructive effect that such big boxes will have on the community.

And we’ll see soon how Obama will manage the last remaining old superpower.
———————————————-
How? With a big “stimulus package” of printed money.

Kolya, yes the car culture here is a reality that will likely never change as everything is so spread out. I did manage to find a house close enough to work to ride my bike. But it took a lot of looking, and passing up some good deals.

I can understand the quaint thing, and how big box stores are a threat. It would be great if such places survive the big box stores. Horses and buggies were also quaint, though. I predict the stores that will survive in small communities will be those that offer services and food. Even without big box stores, the internet will eventually consume most commodity spending. Look at Amazaon, anything you want with no tax and generally free shipping.

“Even without big box stores, the internet will eventually consume most commodity spending. Look at Amazaon, anything you want with no tax and generally free shipping.”

So if I want to eat dinner, it is most efficient to order it through the Internet?

Downtown Omaha, NE looked like a thriving urban oasis when I visited few years ago. Old warehouses were being converted into ‘le chique le cool’ yuppie dwellings right and left. There were quite a few good places to eat, a number of decent breweries, art galleries and 3 or 4 very good ‘bookinisticheskie magaziny’ ( I particularly remember a 19-century Duma-pere complete works edition in French). Of course, no free parking anywhere for miles, but the whole area was bustling with people.

“So if I want to eat dinner, it is most efficient to order it through the Internet?”

Chris, maybe you overlooked this passage from my post, so I will restate it: I predict the stores that will survive in small communities will be those that offer services and food.

Yeah the Old Market in Omaha and the Haymarket in Lincoln have had a lot of renovation done over the last 15 years. Back when I was a kid, they were good places to skate as most of the buildings/warehouses were abandoned. Not anymore though. Most of the stores that have thrived in these areas I think prove my point. They are mostly restaurants and niche shops. There is even a русский магазин in the Haymarket. They mostly sell dried fish and Russian language magazines. I was actually a little dissappointed with the wares being sold, but then I suppose they mostly cater to expats.

Don’t get me wrong, local shopping centers are great and do engender a feeling of community. But efficiency is king, especially if it improves one’s range of choices, and always will be in an industrialized civilization.

“The dialectic of enlightenment.”

You lost me there Sean. I guess I will just be content in knowing that my posts amuse you in some form, that of which, I am once again too unsophisticated to understand.

You can indeed order food through the Internet. Well, I should say that I know of at least one such restaurant in Burlington, Vermont. You order the food online and they deliver it. It’s not that different than ordering Pizza by phone. In addition, you can buy groceries via the Internet and even specify the window of time during which the groceries should be delivered (say, tomorrow, between 5 and 8 pm.) Yes, I admit it can be convenient sometimes, but in the long run community life suffers tremendously (I guess that you cannot put a dollar value on an intangible such as a sense of community.)

“Sometimes I wonder if sock puppetry is not more common on this site. Tess, your post had a different perspective…”

As in Sean-to-Buster, I’m just too schitzo to tow a particular line consistently. But, certainly not a sock puppet.

I did write that post in a moment of panic after listening to a Harvard/MIT economist argue with a sort of kid-in-a-sanbdbox enthusiasm that the Obama Stimulus package should be much bigger than currently envisioned by O’s economic team – and faster. That’s when this juxtaposition of Gaidar and teams’ charter to transform a failed socialist economy into a capitalist economy and Larry Summers and team’s charter to transform a failed capitalist economy into a more socialist economy occurred to me. The tendency now is to compare our current dilemma to the 30s. History has a way of softening things, making it easier to think “Simpler, times,let’s get back to that.” My panic set in when I made the comparison to this more modern pivotal moment in world economics? Just listened to Gov. Arnold make his state-of-the-state and he sounds as pinned to the mat as Yeltsin was in the 90s. There are lessons there…not very happy ones, though.

Would anyone argue that Russians collective wealth was basically pillaged at that moment by opportunists, making a bad situation much worse. I voted for Obama, but if he prints massive amounts of money and pushes it down existing public works pipes locally, I cannot see that going anywhere but into the pockets of Blago-types and negotiation partners. And I’m not taking my eye off the natural wealth of the nation – like Great Lakes water rights.

Tess, I cannot predict the future, but one thing I can say is that Gaidar and other reforming Russian economists of the 1990s had no real world experience before they took over. We cannot say the same about the Obama economists. They’ve been around. They are fairly well known. Even Republican economists respect them as professionals (not that they will necessarily endorse their decisions, but they acknowledge them as competent pros.)

They’ve been around. They are fairly well known.

That’s makes me feel very confident.
But you know – I won’t give them 50 cents.

Jokes aside. Kolya, do you realize that the whole system of current western economy breaks down? Do you think the “around” experience would help these pros to built a brand new system from scratch? I don’t think so.
And looks like Zbigniew Brzezinski found a better way – to sell US to China (when US costs something)
G2 – sales

But you cannot put in dollars the destructive effect that such big boxes will have on the community.

True. But from my experience of growing up in a quaint community in West Wales, those who want to preserve the quaintness are out-of-towners who have earned or are earning their money elsewhere and want a holiday home in a quaint town, or they are the shopkeepers who don’t see any reason why they can’t have a lunch break and every Wednesday afternoon off simply because paying customers find it seriously inconvenient.

Rarely does the “community” consist of those who would benefit massively from such a store, especially those who would happily work in it. I have noticed that people talk about Wal-Mart employees as if they are retarded children who really don’t know what is best for them, and they really should listen to left-wing academics sitting in California who have decided that they are better off unemployed.

Tim, instead of using the word “quaint”, which is so easy to make fun of, I should have simply stick to the word “community.” I disagree with at many levels, but have no desire to argue about it right now. Personally I know that community makes a big difference in the quality of life. In the US I lived in places where there was very little sense of community and have also lived in places with a very strong senses of community. It’s fairly easy to see the common characteristics of each sort of place.

Ivanov, even if things get much worse in the future and there is a depression that lasts for several years, I don’t expect a total break down of the US economic system. Because of its flexibility and resiliency the US will muddle through this successfully. Remember that the US survived the Great Depression without any fundamental changes to its political system. Many reforms were introduced and all that, but that’s precisely because the US system permits it.

Hey, I judge you on what you write. You are an academic, you live in California, you have declared yourself to be a Marxist, and you have shown utter contempt for those who might be employed in a Wal-Mart by suggesting that they would be better off unemployed.

And I made no assumptions about where you come from or how you live your life. I wouldn’t have a clue. Like I said, I judge you on what you write.

Hey, not to get in the middle of two guys about to go at it in the SRB comment section, but Sean, I think you might have misinterpreted Tim’s comment. I believe what Tim meant was the following:

I have noticed that people talk about Wal-Mart employees as if they are retarded children who really don’t know what is best for them, and they really should listen to left-wing academics sitting in California who have decided that [those Wal-Mart employees] are better off unemployed.

Whereas you (perhaps understandably, given the unclear wording) seem to have interpreted his comment as a more personal dig. Or maybe you interpreted it as I did and still found it offensive.

Increase the peace.

This is true.

Is it? Which Russians currently enjoying well paid jobs would find themselves worse off should a Wal-Mart open in a Russian town? Wages in shops are pitiful in Russia (Yulia’s mum worked in a modern supermarket in St. Petes, mainly to give her something to do.)

In addition, there is half a chance that Wal-Mart, being a large foreign company, would at least have to implement some if not all of the RF labour code, whereas the idea that a Russian-owned shop even knows of its existence is laughable. The only companies in Yuzhno-Sakhalinsk which implement the labour code are the foreign ones, all the large Russian companies are run by somebody sufficiently connected to avoid all penalties for ignoring it.

From my experience, having seen local Russian companies existing side-by-side with massive foreign multinationals, Russians are far better off in terms of wages and job protection with the foreign multinationals (which explains why so many Russians try to work for them). The only people who would lose well paid jobs in a Russian town should Wal-Mart set up shop is the local hood who runs the protection rackets.

Thanks, Kolya, for trying to stay upbeat in the face of what I’ve labeled my ‘panic’ over this mega-stimulus which is causing me to write like a sock puppet with a personality other than ‘California liberal’. (NB: I don’t think Tim was aiming at Sean personally either.) I really do think the economy needs stimulating; I would just advocate heightened vigilance on how that money is distributed. I want the Obama team to take the lesson from Venezuela/Russia/etc., not follow them down the track…

So basically, Ivanov, you’re saying that “anna already spilled the oil on the rails.”

I don’t expect a total break down of the US economic system.

I was talking about “western” economy as we know it. And it’s broken. So unless US economy is something different than the “best in the world” – why should it do better?

To give some idea where to look at – think about the difference between Egyptian and Financial pyramids

If Tim wasn’t directing that comment to me personally, then I apologize.

It was aimed at you, although it was an attack on your opinions and not your person. I should not have mentioned the California academic bit, as they are not relevant to the opinion you hold. I included it because quite a lot of similar opinion appears to eminate from California academia, and I consider the west coast academic establishment to be seriously out of touch with reality. Then again, my knowledge of California academia is likely non-existent, and obtained solely from the vocal minority. So apologies for that.

My only hope is that anyone who does work for Walmart that they fight for their rights to a good workplace and decent wages.

In the context of Russia, this is like saying you hope any Russian who imports a Toyota from Japan should beware that it might not have been maintained properly. It is condescending in the extreme.

It suggests that Russians should beware of obvious improvements because the situation might not meet the standards of perfection we have come to expect in the west. It is a similar mentality which objects to Nike setting up sweatshops in the developing world, even though working in a sweatshop is the only opportunity the locals have to escape the grinding poverty of peasant life.

Since there are no Walmarts in Russia and won’t be for a while, we just don’t know. All predictions that it will be positive are equal to those that think it will be negative.

Well, they are unless you consider the behaviour of other foreign multinationals in Russia compared to the local incumbents as regards wages, conditions, and adherence to the labour code. But of course, as with the Ford factory you once wrote about, you won’t compare them with the local incumbents but with the standards expected in the US. You are in effect asking Russians to be wary that Wal-Mart won’t offer them employment conditions which the best employers in the US offer.

“I was talking about “western” economy as we know it. And it’s broken. So unless US economy is something different than the “best in the world” – why should it do better?”

I guess I don’t know what you mean by broken. I expect things to get worse, but to me “broken” means that it is not functioning anymore. Well, the economy is still working. It was still functioning even during the Great Depression of the 1930s. At least in the US the vast majority of people are still working (unemployment is below 8 percent, I believe) and to most of us day-to-day life doesn’t look that much different. We are probably heading for some tough times, but we’ll muddle through them.

Since there are no Walmarts in Russia and won’t be for a while, we just don’t know.

Wait a minute, although I know Walmart has its own special reputation for poor labor practices in the US, isn’t Metro Cash & Carry the functional equivalent of Walmart (or at least of Sam’s Club)? Those guys are all over the post-Soviet space, along with “hypermarkets” like Ramstore and Auchan. I think they are generally considered a positive development, so perhaps one could predict that Walmarts would also be a positive development (or at least would be seen as such in the short term by the local public, consumers and job-seekers alike).

I’m not a huge fan of the big-box/”has-everything-from-booze-to-strollers-to-guns” store – in fact, I’ve only been inside one Walmart in my life, although Target is not bad – but my own personal experience of visiting a Metro store in Balti (in the northern part of Moldova – I went to one in Moscow, too, but that was a few years ago and it’s not as remarkable there anyway) is that in a place like that (and in the Russian regions as well) a store like that is a bit like a portal into an alternate universe. Things that we used to have to bring to our family members there are easily obtained at reasonable prices. As for the people working there, I tend to agree with Tim – it is difficult to imagine foreign employers treating local employees worse than local employers (especially in the retail sector).

Actually, the same goes for the food service sector. McDonald’s in Russia has been discussed here in the past. All I can say is that if you told me I could wait tables or work the kassa at the average 40-50-seat small-time kafe in Moscow or sling burgers at McD’s, I’d take the McD’s option. There was a time when I waited tables as my sole source of income, and I would never want to do that job in Russia. Once you’ve seen a waitress following a customer out into the street and begging him to pay his bill (physically trying to prevent him from closing the door of his SUV and then hanging onto it as he tried to drive away), you realize how horrible it must be as a server to have to be responsible for customers who skip out on their tabs or don’t pay because they have a problem (apparently this is a fairly standard policy in low-to-mid-class Russian restaurants).

Sean, you urge Russian workers to “beware” of Walmart. But what would the practical result of such wariness be for the prospective retail-sector employees? They are presumably either unemployed or working at another retail job. In Russia (like in America, actually), those jobs are not likely to be well-paid (in America they are less well-paid at Walmart than elsewhere, but I doubt this would be true in Russia), and I doubt the average prospective retail-sector employee has the option of going to work somewhere where there is a labor union looking out for them.

The Russian Labor Code, when followed (as high-visibility multinationals employing many people have a large incentive to do) provides much more protection than the average American employee in any non-unionized or non-government position enjoys. So I respect your class-based concern, but I think they will be OK. The only problem might arise if (as in America) Walmart Russia was unable to find Russians who want to work there. Then we’d see how good they are at lobbying for work permit quotas (which is many times tougher this year than in recent years).

Or perhaps – though it’s unlikely – they would employ illegals through contractors (as they have in the US), since this is a practice which I know exists in Russia and is engaged in, sort of, by many companies when they hire office cleaning companies and the like who are able to offer low-cost services by using illegals. But the point will probably be moot – in the current economic climate, if they are bold enough to expand into Russia I doubt they would have any problem getting plenty of job-seekers with legal status.

Sorry for the long ramble.

Tess I sense you may of taken by comment about you as being a slight. It was supposed to be the complement in an odd sort of way. Chalk it up to me being a poor communicator. Sure, a good portion of that stimulus money in Chicago and New Orleans, maybe Boston, is going to be wasted on corruption, but in the rest of the country it will likely be put to the use that it was alloted for. Public works does not equate to corruption in most parts of the US.

For what is worth, it should not be seen that Russia’s choice is either the present status quo or Walmart-type big box stores.

A little bit off topic, but a great news nevertheless, – as it turns out the Opposition is consolidating: Eduard Limonov offered Kasyanov and Kasparov to unite forces and fight the Putin-Medvedev clique as a united front. After this unification, no doubt the Putin-Medvedev clique won’t be in power for long, KGB with its torture chambers or not … Read for yourself:

Э.Лимонов предложил М.Касьянову и Г.Каспарову объединиться

РИА «Новости» 19:09 15.01.2009

Лидер национал-большевиков Эдуард Лимонов призвал коллег-оппозиционеров — руководителя Российского народно-демократического союза (РНДС) Михаила Касьянова и главу Объединенного гражданского фронта (ОГФ) Гарри Каспарова — объединиться, чтобы ввести на оппозиционном фланге «триумвират вождей». «Оппозиция срочно нуждается в твердом, персонифицированном руководстве, в поднятии одного флага, под которым соберутся воины», — говорится в опубликованном на официальном сайте национал-большевиков открытом письме Лимонова.

По мнению руководителя национал-большевиков, в последние годы было много попыток объединить оппозицию, создано бесчисленное количество «площадок для дискуссий», «совещательных органов», среди которых альтернативный парламент «Национальная ассамблея», движения «Солидарность» и «Левый фронт». «Создание большого количества рыхлых политических объединений, слепленных кое-как, имеющих коллективное руководство и, таким образом, фактически неуправляемых, привело к распылению политических сил, а не их сплочению», — считает Лимонов.

По его словам, сегодня «все эти, с позволения сказать “организации”, составили обширный оппозиционный хаос». Из этой ситуации лидер национал-большевиков видит один выход: смена самого принципа построения оппозиционных сил и переход к практике жесткого централизованного руководства.

Обращаясь в Касьянову и Каспарову, Лимонов отмечает, что каждый из них возглавляет «наиболее боеспособные политические организации оппозиции». «Предлагаю союз троих. Предлагаю принимать мудрые решения тремя умами, взамен истеричных арифметических голосований», — сказал Лимонов. Он отметил, что будет ждать публичных ответов.

January 15, 2009 8:41 AM

For what is worth, it should not be seen that Russia’s choice is either the present status quo or Walmart-type big box stores.

I don’t see their having much choice. The reason massive box-stores will be the main ones to survive in Russia is because they are the ones with the sufficient clout and revenues to overcome the mountain of bureaucratic obstacles placed in the path of anyone wanting to open a business. Medium-sized businesses just don’t seem to be able to operate, and I think a large part of this is down to supply-chain problems: you need to be of a certain size to make it worth your while battling with the Russian customs to ensure stock replenishment.

At the other end of the scale, small 1-2 person shops and stalls tend to survive because they tend to slip under the bureaucratic radar.

The big-box concept is already thriving in Russia in the form of MegaMall/Ikea. According to a friend of mine who is a manager of Ikea Russia, decent furniture at a reasonable price was damned near impossible to get hold of in Russia, hence the enormous popularity of Ikea. Russians would have been waiting for a century for their domestic industry to develop.

Tim, I hope not, but you may well be right. I’m certainly totally out of the loop on this one and what you wrote, although rather depressing to me personally, makes sense.

Kolya on January 15, 2009 5:22 pm

ivanov wrote”“I was talking about “western” economy as we know it. And it’s broken.”

I guess I don’t know what you mean by broken. I expect things to get worse, but to me “broken” means that it is not functioning anymore. Well, the economy is still working. It was still functioning even during the Great Depression of the 1930s. At least in the US the vast majority of people are still working (unemployment is below 8 percent, I believe) and to most of us day-to-day life doesn’t look that much different. We are probably heading for some tough times, but we’ll muddle through them.

Broken means exactly what it says, Kolya. When ship’s engine is broken it doesn’t mean ship stops/sink suddenly. It even can be steered for a while. Inertia! I heard there was music and lights on the Titanic at the last moments!

Stimulus, more money, more regulations are not changing the system. Just steering somehow for a while producing illusion (or hope if you wish) that everything “gonna be alright”.

You didn’t answer the question about pyramids.
Just to give some idea about current “system”
read the story about one pyramid

PS. sorry for off-topic, Sean.

Ivanov, I’m much less apocalyptic about the current situation than you are. Even if we are heading into a depression that will last for several years (and maybe we won’t), we will muddle through this. For a few years it might be difficult to many of us, but such is life.

“Public works does not equate to corruption in most parts of the US.”
I think it fits within the topic of unemployment strategies to reply:
Yes, Jason, when I’m thinking on the sunnyside about current prospects for the economic stimulus money, I remember Timberline Lodge in Oregon. Timberline was a product of the Works Progress Administration of the 30s. To be there in front of one of its massive stone fireplaces underneath its exposed lumber ceilings in the grand lobby while a snow storm blankets Mount Hood, you get a real appreciation for the vision, physical labor, and, well, enthusiasm and pride that went into its construction. All pieces of notable craftsmanship and art are labeled and signed by the workers involved, and there are lots of photos of the WPA at work displayed. Maybe the Illinois Highway Administration should try this?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Timberline_Lodge

Of course, there is less opportunity for design disaster and agent corruption with projects with local focus vs. centrally planned nationwide one-size-fits-all programs. Timberline demonstrates another good lesson for these times too: The success of a green building design is highly dependent on the surrounding climate and local geographical setting. IE, ideas have to percolate up, not down.

I forgot to add that “The Shining” was filmed at Timberline.

Tess, it is my understanding that the public works portion of the stimulus bill is actually mostly locally driven. The gov’t has asked state DOT agencies, city public works depts., airport authorities, etc. to provide lists of what they can put out to bid right away so as to get construction started right away. Most of these projects will be very mundane, nothing like the Timberline Lodge. Because of the short timeline, they will need to be projects that either: 1. have already been designed and were put on the shelf due to funding shortfalls, or 2. something that doesn’t take much design work like pavement rehabilitation. So I am afraid you won’t see very many large WPA type projects.
Disclaimer: My background is in civil engineering so my comments are going to be biased as such.

[Walmart Discussion]
Do workers need to organize if the job they are working is only temporary? Especially if doing so reduces the number of available jobs and makes it harder to get a job with Walmart.

Let’s face it, most of the people working at Walmart are either young and just need a temp job to pay for gas, eating out, and movie tickets. They could care less about health care or benefits other than a flexible schedule. There are also the seniors who are look to supplement their retirement income, and more importantly, get out of the house so that they don’t go insane from boredom and loneliness. The rest are people who are too lazy to find a better job. Yeah, that is a broad brush I am using there, but it is mostly true. When I was working at McDonald’s I did care about stupid benefits, I just needed some money to pay for movies and gas. Even if they had offered health and retirement funds, I wouldn’t have taken them, as even paying in a dollar a month for such would have been considered a waste of a $1.

I will probably offend some here (although no offense is meant) by saying that most of the opposition to Walmart in the US seems to be based on pretentiousness. It was the same with K-mart: only poor people shop there, ergo, it must sell inferior products. Plus, if you shop at such a place, you might see a 300 lb woman in a tube top or a 100 lb man in a mesh shirt. Which would be bad because seeing such would require one to realize the world is not full of beautiful, thoughtful people who care about how they look or sound, leading one to depression and eventual suicide.

Sean, these countries/cities were under British rule and have turned out pretty well. India has a lot of problems, to be sure, but as a very diverse country seem to be handling them quite well. In my opinion, it’s the rule of law, as set forth by their previous British occupiers, that have allowed the countries/cities to continue to grow and prosper.

“I will probably offend some here (although no offense is meant) by saying that most of the opposition to Walmart in the US seems to be based on pretentiousness.”

That’s the type of stereotype often advanced by defenders of big box stores. Everyone I know who is against big box stores opposes them because of the effect they have on communities. Of course, if there is little community to begin with, then not much is lost.

My apologies for being off topic…

I’m curious about the Altai helicopter crash. Will the government permit a full and transparent investigation on those poachers? Those highly-placed jerks were hunting an endangered (and protected) species from a helicopter. The fact that most of them died should not be an excuse to sweep things under the rug.

Being a former field biologist as well as someone who has trekked in the Altai Mountains (on foot and horseback–no helicopters!), this sleazy affair raised my hackles.

My apologies for being off topic…

I’m curious about the Altai helicopter crash. Will the government permit a full and transparent investigation on those poachers? Those highly-placed jerks were hunting an endangered (and protected) species from a helicopter. The fact that most of them died should not be an excuse to sweep things under the rug.

Being a former field biologist as well as someone who has trekked in the Altai Mountains (on foot and horseback–no helicopters!), this sleazy affair raised my hackles.
——————————————-
Yeah, Kolya: Russia is clearly going down, unlike the Free World.

“Russian unemployment is growing fast, especially in Moscow.”
———————————————–
It’s unfair to consider the rising unemployment in Russia without any reference to what’s going on in the rest of the (free) world.

It’s like to say that, for example, “Russia is suffering from the greenhouse effect, especially in Moscow”, however the right statement would be “The Earth is suffering from greenhouse effect which affects every country”

It’s not the case when unemployment was rising in the ex-USSR and nowhere else (at least not at the same scale).

That’s what happening in the USA right now (for example), according to NYT:

Jobless Rate Hits 7.2%, a 16-Year High

* comments (166)
* Sign In to E-Mail or Save This
* Print
* Reprints
* Share
o Linkedin
o Digg
o Facebook
o Mixx
o Yahoo! Buzz
o Permalink

Article Tools Sponsored By
By LOUIS UCHITELLE
Published: January 9, 2009

The nation lost 524,000 jobs in December, reflecting a pervasive fear among employers that if they fail to shed workers quickly their companies may go under in a recession poised to become the worst since the 1930s.

Hey, Sean, check pseudo-Dima’s childish reply to my comment on the poachers. I think he has a thin-skin because of some sort of juvenile inferiority complex. Somehow he cannot accept that a blog dedicated to Russia is often critical of what’s going in Russia. (As if equivalent blogs dedicated to the US are not often critical of the US.)

All right, I’ll be leaving soon. It’s snowing a bit and it’s a rather cold night for us wimpy Vermonters (-22 centigrade), but I’ll be driving my wife to Wally’s state (New Hampshire) so she can take an early morning flight to Obama’s inauguration–a good excuse for her to see old friends. Usually we fly off from Burlington, but not this time.

Ivanov, I’m much less apocalyptic about the current situation than you are.

I’m not apocalyptic at all, Kolya.
I’m just saying that those on bridge have no idea how our “ship” works. Like a captain who stays on the bridge backwards and commanding … “Full Ahead!”.
Well… this doesn’t matter. Just believe me – G. Depression has nothing in common with world affairs now. Except hope “its-gonna-be-alright”.

As to helicopter crash – most likely pilots will be make responsible. For breaking safety rules. As rules say – captain is the only commanding office on board. Well, rules don’t say what happens to the captain if he doesn’t follow “suggestions” of his F(*&^ VIPs on board. But he had the option – to be fired or to be dead
If I recall correctly – this is a third such crash with “governors”.

Hey, Sean, check pseudo-Dima’s childish reply to my comment on the poachers.
———————————————–
Real-Kolya: My comment to yours and other negative news about Russia is prompted by the fact that the bed news/comments/post outnumber the good ones 100:1. Not everything about Russia is bad, but many people seems to prefer to focus on the bed news (real or perceived). For example, most of Putin-Medvedev sayS is by default met with doubt, while what Kasparov-Novodvorskaya-staff of Exo Moskvy sayS is always the truth.

As for accusing me in having an “inferiority complex”, you know what I say in such cases: “People assign to others all of their qualities” (projection). In Russian: Люди приписывают другим все свои качества.

And given Walmart’s economic power (as seen in is ability to force suppliers to give them advantages prices…

Huh? How does Wal-Mart force it suppliers to give them advantages prices? Do normal market rates for goods somehow not apply in this case?

I will probably offend some here (although no offense is meant) by saying that most of the opposition to Walmart in the US seems to be based on pretentiousness.

I’d agree with that. It’s similar with the opposition to Tescos in the UK, where snobs either ignore the fact that it is enormously popular because it sells what people want to buy, or they are unbelievably condescending in assuming that the customers are retarded children who don’t know what is good for them and are being forced into Tesco against their subconcious will.

The LA city council banned them from opening a store within the city because of the supermarket union and community pressure and all of the environmental reports said that it would have an adverse effect on the community.

Great. So rather than letting customers choose where they shop, the great and the good – half of whom are self-appointed “community leaders” – decide on their behalf that they should not shop at Wal-Mart. Why is it that whenever left-wingers get together, the end result is telling others what they should be doing? For their own good, of course.

http://www.fastcompany.com/magazine/77/walmart.html

I didn’t read anything there about suppliers being forced to do anything. If Wal-mart decides that $2.97 (or whatever) is what it is prepared to pay for a gallon of pickles, Vlasic the supplier is perfectly entitled to sell them to somebody else who may value them more highly. The value of the pickles, or indeed any product, is what somebody is willing to pay for them, not what the person who owns it decides he wants to sell it for. The real reason the pickles cannot fetch higher prices is because there are too many of them.

Saying that suppliers are forced to sell stuff cheaply is akin to saying you can force Ikea to sell you a sofa at whatever price you want.

Okay, I’m back from my brief NH trip.

Pseudo-Dima, you are a very insightful psychologist. I’m impressed.

Ivanov, I’m afraid you are right that they’ll simply blame the pilot. It would be great if this time it doesn’t happen, though. There is always hope. As you wrote, the pilot probably didn’t have much of an option.

Tim, so here you are defending the little man against snobbish elitists. One thing is to disagree about big box stores, another is to characterize those who disagree with you on this issue are pretentious snobs. It’s amusing how often I hear similar kinds of negative stereotypes. Something worth of Gosh Darn It Palin. Recently I read from a conservative Republican that most whites who voted for Obama are secretly disdainful of African-Americans, closeted racists, who voted for Obama just to show how cool they are.

Not as bad as being racists, but I guess the fact that Sean and I oppose Walmart means that we are, you know, pretentious. Moreover, I’m against MacDonalds–those Golden Arches loved by hundreds of millions of plebeians that don’t know any better. This is probably even more of a dead giveaway of what kind of person I am.

Russia is running out of time before it dissolves into a third world country without proper intervention to prevent their total collaspe.

Sean.
Just in case – Stalin’s work in digital form
http://grachev62.narod.ru/stalin/index.htm

Тома 1–13 подготовлены Институтом Маркса – Энгельса – Ленина при ЦК ВКП(б) в 1946–1952 гг.

Тома 14–18 подготовлены и опубликованы под общей редакцией
доктора философских наук, профессора Р.И. Косолапова в 1997–2006 гг.

Алфавитный указатель и электронная версия собрания сочинений подготовлены
доктором политических наук, доцентом М.Н. Грачевым в 2002–2006 гг.

Kolya and Sean, my comment wasn\’t directed at anyone on this site, as I am not aware of anyone here being pretentious. That was what I was trying to say when I said I wasn\’t trying to cause offense to anyone here. That all said, there are a lot of younger leftists around college age whose political outlook is based pretty much on self esteem. Me and all my friends went through it to some degree. Still have a few that never grew up, and still make the personal political.

Sean, as for unionization, you have a point about jobs becoming more long term. Now if you could only convince me unions are a force for good in today’s US. The way most of them operate is a racket, as evidenced by union officials pushing to abolish secret elections of union leaders.

One thing is to disagree about big box stores, another is to characterize those who disagree with you on this issue are pretentious snobs.

I’m not saying all opposition to supermarkets is based on pretentious snobbery, but from my experience on the subject in the UK, an awful lot of it is.

“At least I theoretically have a chance to change my union through democracy. I can at least organize and throw out my union leader. I can’t do that with my boss.”

I suppose that sentiment is where we fundamentally disagree. I have no desire to overthrow my boss, or have the option to do so. If he was so bad that it was unbearable to work under him, I would look for another job elsewhere. Granted other prospects are limited right now, but if you are willing to bide ones time for a few years, there will always be opportunities to upgrade if you have a good work ethic and are good at what you do.

I don’t have the same level of choice on what country’s gov’t I have to live under. Sure I could move to another country that has a culture and gov’t more in line with my beliefs. Unfortunately, if you lean towards the libertarian/conservative persuasion on most issues, you really only have one choice on a country to live in.

Sean.
You can not do anything with your boss for same reason sailors can not do anything (aka “elect” and “vote out”) with their captain.
Sorry, but you just sell your knowledge to “the boss”. That’s it. But you can walk out.

Jason,

You are exactly right.