A Very Nashi Christmas

It’s not Christmas in Russia!!!!

This Nachi humor is bad, but maybe net positive in that it does aim to be humorous.
Other than Minsk Jews and their offspring who have cornered the market, ex-Soviets are assumed to be humorless. “Funny” is a powerful weapon.

A friend gave me the audio book Moscow Rules by Daniel Silva. Israeli James Bond getting the FSB. My first reaction: wish I could re-gift to Candide or Cyrill. Propagation of this bad-Russians meme is really unhelpful, IMO.

My husband and children are watching that very Christmas-y movie “Enemy at the Gates,” one of their seasonal favorites. (The winter scenes of the homeland make it qualify.)

Merry Christmas (or un-Christmas to you Chris).

Ho-Ho-Ho!

One of the few saving graces of Nashi is that they have a sense of humor. The best gift was the ties to poor Saak. The worst of the three you wrote about was the one to Yushchenko. Why? Because of the swastika. Some things naturally lend themselves to comparisons to Nazism, but all in all it always helps to keep in mind the Reductio ad Hitlerum fallacy.

It would be great if besides Nashi’s ability to laugh at others they would develop the ability to laugh at themselves. And let me expand the circle to include not only Nashi but all parties and all political figures in Russia. In the US, for example, we have all those TV comedy sketches in which Bush, Cheney, Clinton, Obama and others are ridiculed week after week. And then we have the “roast” tradition in which all those politicians poke fun at themselves and laugh at the jokes of others at their own expense. I don’t know whether they really enjoy it, but at least they have to appear to enjoy it. I cannot say exactly why, but I find this sort of tradition very healthy.

My first reaction: wish I could re-gift to Candide or Cyrill. Propagation of this bad-Russians meme is really unhelpful, IMO.

Tess, where did I do the bad Russians meme propaganda? Is it just because I do not like Putin’s politics and economics?

Merry First Christmas to All!

One down, one to go. Plus, the 7th is my birthday and I was born in the Александро-Невская Лавра. I am way pass 33 so no reason to worry about Easter anymore.

“In the US, for example, we have all those TV comedy sketches in which Bush, Cheney, Clinton, Obama and others are ridiculed week after week.”

Zhirinovsky practically is a comedy sketch in himself.

What have I ever said to lead anyone suspect that I would stoop to read Silva’s ouevre?

Merry Christmas to All!

My Christmas present to Putin:

Broken-up empty piggy bank, inscribed “Russia Stability Fund, $155,000,000,000″.

Zhirinovsky practically is a comedy sketch in himself.

And yet he remains in office and a certain element of the population takes him seriously. Seriously.

My Christmas present to Putin:

Broken-up empty piggy bank, inscribed “Russia Stability Fund, $155,000,000,000″.

Lest we forget, Russia still has very large cash reserves in their stability fund, despite the economic pressures that are reducing its value rapidly.

Merry X-Mas Sean and all readers!

—
BTW. “Enemy at the Gates” = anti-Russian propaganda. My 2 kopeks.

PS. using the global financial crisis as a means to score points on Putin is quite juvenile, given that it is 1) well, global and 2) started in the United States.

Rossiya Molodaya’s gave Bush a box of old shoes as an early Christmas present. And the people protesting the car taxes gave Putin what looks like a Kopeeka turned petition.

“Zhirinovsky practically is a comedy sketch in himself.”

If Russia ever institutes American style “roasts” Zhirinovsky would have to be banned. Otherwise he’ll splash the faces of at least have of the guests with either wine, juice or water, and then try to use his bodyguards to remove the other half. He’s a comedy sketch, but he definitely does not know the meaning of being a good sport.

There is no connection between global crisis and empty ’stability fund’ in Russia. The point is there was never a stability fund, it was all lies; every penny was stolen immediately. That’s why they already paying half pensions to old people.

Another funny thing, in 2004 Russian officials declared that “the government pays into the fund when oil prices exceed $20 a barrel”.

http://www.cbonds.info/all/eng/news/index.phtml/params/id/28367

So theoretically Russia should be still quite well off and stability fund should continue to grow. That is if any Russian gov’t bombastic talk about fiscal responsibility, financial independence and concern about the country and its people weren’t a bunch of lies.

Thieves and liars, the whole bunch of them, from Putin on down; and Chrisius is their willing apologist.

“There is no connection between global crisis and empty ’stability fund’ in Russia. The point is there was never a stability fund, it was all lies; every penny was stolen immediately.”

Huh?

I think Candide needs another drinky-drinky to get rid of his pink pension elephants.

For the deliberately obtuse I repeat: the only connection between the global economic crisis and depletion of Russia ’stability fund’ is the sudden disclosure that the fund had no money in it and/or can’t be used to relieve population hardships. The whole thing is the swindle on par with Madoff’s, only many times greater.

I speak as one who believed Putin about ’stability fund’ in 2004. Much as I know about Russia funny tendency to declare a new path to show the world every few decades, I honestly thought this time it might have been for real. They seemed sensible and practical and I thought, perhaps this time it may work.

Well, the crisis showed they remained the same crook and liars as ever. They pursed their lips, cut their hair short and didn’t appear drunk in public, but they are the same thieves and liars as always.

Regarding Candide’s assertions, I have to confess my total ignorance. He may be right, he may be wrong. I have no idea. Can readers here recommend a couple of current articles that could help in my understanding? Serious articles that do not have to agree with each other.

Absolutely the first time I’ve heard of it, plus the number of articles I can find on it is zero, plus, the World Bank certainly doesn’t agree. I suppose one might find some work of fiction in New Times, though. So, I think that, as usual, he’s spouting “Obama is a Marxist” bullshit and has either had too much drink-drinky or not enough. The liquor stores are open, Candide! Run, run! It’s never too early for the first shot!

I dont think Candide is right in this case. How much reserves a state has is usually fairly public information as it would affect the value and dividend on things like treasury bonds. And both Putin and Medvedev have publicly stated that they wont be cutting back spending next year – a very hard boast to withdraw from and would be politically fatal even in Russia.

At any rate Happy Christmas everyone!

“I dont think Candide is right in this case. How much reserves a state has is usually fairly public information as it would affect the value and dividend on things like treasury bonds.”

Exactly. You can’t make hundreds of billions of dollars disappear without somebody noticing, for Christ’s sake.

Russia’s foreign reserves and the Stability Fund are two entirely separate things. I believe Candide is referring to the Stability Fund, the existence of which might well – for all practical purposes – turn out to be a myth, along the lines of a western country’s “pension pot” which turns out to be a collosal figure with a minus sign in front of it.

”Russia’s foreign reserves and the Stability Fund are two entirely separate things. I believe Candide is referring to the Stability Fund, the existence of which might well – for all practical purposes – turn out to be a myth, along the lines of a western country’s “pension pot” which turns out to be a collosal figure with a minus sign in front of it.”

The Stability fund is part of Russia’s foreign reserves, and unless I am mistaken it is literally saved cash deliberately fenced off to shore future holes in the budget. Thats what the Kremlin has been saying all along anyway.

That said, i read in the Moscow Times a few months back that Kudrin was getting a hard time from the government for having invested too much of something – I cant remember what – in US futures. If it’s the Stability fund cash then they certainly arent going to have as much left now as they had when they invested.

It’s rather confusing. Some articles on Russia seem to use “stability fund” and “foreign reserves” as synonyms. My guess is that Ger is correct: the stability fund being a subset of the foreign reserves. Once again, though, that’s only a guess.

”It’s rather confusing. Some articles on Russia seem to use “stability fund” and “foreign reserves” as synonyms. My guess is that Ger is correct: the stability fund being a subset of the foreign reserves. Once again, though, that’s only a guess.”

I hate the word ‘fund’, its bloody confusing. It has connotations of being cash but may actually all be invested. For example our local soccer club may have a Dressing Rooms Renovation Fund, which is literally cash scratched together and saved in a bank and added to with more cash until there is enough to, well, renovate the dressing rooms. On the other hand our government has a National Pension Reserve Fund, some of which is cash but a lot of which is investments of saved cash. I think it would be clearer to everyone if people clearly used the words ‘cash’ and ‘investments’. From what I have read though, with poor enough recollection, Russia’s Stability fund is cash just squireled away. If they are lying then its a very big lie that not even Putin could recover from.

Hope you’re not too cold there in Vermont Kolya! C Rozhestvo!:-) (a but early I know)

The Stability fund is part of Russia’s foreign reserves, and unless I am mistaken it is literally saved cash deliberately fenced off to shore future holes in the budget.

Are you sure that’s right? I understood that the Stabilisation Fund was all invested and none (or very little) held in cash, and was split between the Reserve Fund (to be invested abroad in low-yield securities) and the National Welfare Fund (to be invested in riskier schemes). At the beginning of 2008, the fund stood at $157bn (<a href=”http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stabilization_Fund_of_the_Russian_Federation”source)

By contrast, a lot of countries hold strategic foreign cash reserves of different currencies, and Russia holds about $480bn worth split between USD and Euros in this manner (<a href=”http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Foreign_exchange_reserves”source). Reporting is generally pretty shabby on this topic and often confuses the two, but I am pretty sure they are quite different animals.

Russia is, or at least was until last month, spending about $15bn per week from its foreign reserves to buy roubles in order to prop up the value of the rouble. This seems to be done for little other reason than national prestige, Russians having been led to believe that the stronger a currency, the stronger the country. Certainly some sort of intervention is required to prevent a collapse in the rouble (which is unlikely), but the rate Russia is churning through its fabled foreign reserves is somewhat alarming. I think they’ll call a quiet halt to this over the holidays, and leave the rouble to drop below 30 per dollar. If they do, at least they’ll still have a pretty heft dollar reserve left over.

Now quite where the Stabilisation Fund is following the collapse of pretty much every vehicle of investment over the past few months. The Russian government isn’t saying, that’s for sure. But we do know that Putin encouraged the investment of the fund into Gazprom and Rosneft, both of which are effectively branches of the Russian government which are in desperate need of cash and have appealed to the Russian government to help with. In other words, the Stabilisation Fund designed to protect against a collapsing oil price has been encouraged to invest in oil companies whose share price has collapsed. This doesn’t look good.

I’ve long been saying that Russia’s oil and gas plans aren’t realistic, and basing the entire future development of the country’s economy on this is likely to fail. I can see a time coming rather soon when people will scarcely believe that Russia was praised for sound economic management after about 2003.

”Are you sure that’s right?”

I’m not sure at all. I just got the impression it actually was cash just put aside for budget holes. If what you are saying is true – and it does seem to be – at the moment that money is basically gone up in smoke and Russia doesnt have it to spend. But if the other bit is true as well – that they have 480 bn in Euros and dollars – well they might be alright.

”In other words, the Stabilisation Fund designed to protect against a collapsing oil price has been encouraged to invest in oil companies whose share price has collapsed. This doesn’t look good.”

That is bad news. Has the drop in oil prices hit your bottom line yet in Sakhalin? Have ye had to lay off or anything? Do u think the price is going to drop much lower?

Has the drop in oil prices hit your bottom line yet in Sakhalin? Have ye had to lay off or anything? Do u think the price is going to drop much lower?

My employer, Sakhalin Energy (Gazprom owned, Shell managed) has to cut its expenditures by $300m for 2009. So far, this has taken the form of several expansion project works being canned for the forseeable future, plus my telephone being barred from making international calls. Some of the expat benefits have been curtailed, such as business class flights and medical expenses for common-law (i.e. unmarried) accompanied partners. To be fair, a lot of these cuts would probably have happened (and needed to happen) anyway, only the oil price drop has forced its happening rather quickly. It is expected that a lot of the expat staff will be cut in 2009: if done properly, this might be a good thing as at least 50% of the expats are utterly useless. But it is feared that quite a few of us might lose our jobs in a round of poorly thought-out cuts. Personally, I am not too worried because I have a reasonably rare skill of making myself useful pretty much anywhere, instead of simply specialising myself into a box. If I can survive until the end of 2009, I’ll be happy enough.

As for the oil price, I can’t see it slipping much further, at least not for long. I suspect it’ll level out somewhere around $50-$60 per barrel over the next year.

It is true, as many have noted, that practically all so-called ‘funds’ in most countries are raided by politicians. For example, I remember talk about Social Security insolvency from the first day I came to the US. But somehow in most Western countries the obligations continue to be met and people continue to receive their pensions and subsidies in full, decade after decade.

Russian gov’t already started to cut down on their obligations, paying half- or third- and even that much not on time, and it’s been only few month into the crisis mode. This is bad news for regular Russian people. Putin deserves a great deal of ridicule over this matter, particularly considering all the pomposity that went into establishment of the ’stabillty fund’ in 2004, probably just in time for Putin’s re-election.

“For the deliberately obtuse I repeat: the only connection between the global economic crisis and depletion of Russia ’stability fund’ is the sudden disclosure that the fund had no money in it and/or can’t be used to relieve population hardships.”

Candide, I may be obtuse but not deliberately. Please point me out to the place (article, gov announcement, whatever) that makes the disclosure that the stability fund has no money.

“For the deliberately obtuse I repeat: the only connection between the global economic crisis and depletion of Russia ’stability fund’ is the sudden disclosure that the fund had no money in it and/or can’t be used to relieve population hardships.”

Like the Scots at Wembley in the 1980s, you have not only moved the goalposts but are actually pulling them down.
Candide no-one here is being deliberately obtuse; I would have though that the comments section here was a place where people tease out issues and learn a few things from others. The fact is you have not provided a shred of proof that the Stabililisation Fund has no money. Tim Newman has said above that, like many such funds, it has in fact been invested in bonds and shares and in which case it is now likely severely depleted. This does not mean it was stolen or was never there, and indeed such funds across the world, in many countries, are suffering the same fate. I’m no fan of Putin but it seems to mean you are simply spitting out vitriol without a shred of proof – almost a reverse Averko, except he cheerleads for the Kremlin.

”Russian gov’t already started to cut down on their obligations, paying half- or third- and even that much not on time, and it’s been only few month into the crisis mode.”

Could you please provide a link that substantiates this claim. Not bluster, a link please. This actually has ramifications for all of us with relatives in Russia, as if the government is defaulting it is only a matter of time before private enterprise follows.

My wife tells me that the finance minister was on TV yesterday saying that 2009 will be the hardest year for Russians since the war. I find this hard to believe, and it is surely mainly hyperbole designed to help people grin and bear it, but even supposing Russia is about to face severe hardship what happened to Putin’s confidence a month or two ago that Russia would escape the effects of the global economic meltdown? And has anyone else noticed that it is Putin and Medvedev who deliver the good news, and some other minister who delivers the bad?

1. I heard about delays of payments from few private conversations and right now I can’t find any links except this one,

“”The situation may be exacerbated by a growth in protests, arising from the frustration of workers over the non-payment of wages or those threatened with dismissal,” RIA news agency quoted Deputy Interior Minister Mikhail Sukhodolsky as saying.

http://www.reuters.com/article/bondsNews/idUSLO31234820081224

2. the conclusion that ’stability fund’ was stolen is all my own (and I happen to make mistakes, from time to time).

3. it was not my intention to make fun of Russian people potential hardships.

4. “deliberately obtuse” was directed exclusively at Chrisius and nobody else, and it may have been a rare case when he didn’t deserve it.

“”The situation may be exacerbated by a growth in protests, arising from the frustration of workers over the non-payment of wages or those threatened with dismissal,” RIA news agency quoted Deputy Interior Minister Mikhail Sukhodolsky as saying.”

This appears to refer to wages in the private sector. That is a different animal altogether compared with the state actually defaulting on pensions etc.

”2. the conclusion that ’stability fund’ was stolen is all my own (and I happen to make mistakes, from time to time).”

That doesnt appear to be the case here though, but admittedly no-one here has seen the books. I know the Russians have ‘form’ when it comes to money vanishing (1998 and the IMF bailout loans spring to mind) but you havent presented any proof at all that the money was robbed. Again I reiterate I am no Putin fan but the government may simply have been caught by the balls by the collapse in futures, as has most of the governments across the globe.

”3. it was not my intention to make fun of Russian people potential hardships.”

I know you werent in fairness.

”And has anyone else noticed that it is Putin and Medvedev who deliver the good news, and some other minister who delivers the bad?”

Par for the course over there Tim. For all the bluster and bullshit about being tough when push comes to shove he hasnt the nuts to address the nation and tell them truthfully the bottom line. Instead he wheels out Kudrin (who, wait and see, will be blamed for all and sundry over the next 12 months)and blames the US for all Russia’s woes. I have been banging on in this blog for well over a year now that the only reason Putin has been kept in high esteem are high oil prices, populist remarks peppered with foul language and throwing aggressive shapes at the US and UK. We’ll find out over the next while if I have been right or not.

Sean,

Candide originally alluded to public wages and pensions not being paid by the state, and that the money had vanished. The examples he then gave above are about private sector wages not being pad. They are not the same thing.

”I just wanted to back up that one statement since I think when it comes to Russian’s daily lives not getting your salary has a far more immediate impact than the state of the stability fund.”

Indeed it does. But that wasnt what the issue was. The point being made was that the Stability Fund was empty – stolen – and that state wages and pensions were already suffering. Neither of these things appear to be the case right now.

”While I don’t completely disagree with you Ger, I think Putin was pretty forthcoming during his Q&A (as best a politician will be). He was positive but also was clear that things would get worse before they got better.”

Fair enough. And I suppose technically he isnt the boss anymore. I just dont like him.

”What I find strange and perhaps more worrying is Medvedev seems to have mostly disappeared from the radar besides his TV appearance last week. ”

He has to wish the country S Novum Godom on wednesday night. Maybe he’ll say a few words then. Is he really in charge though? Kto znaet.

http://www.siberianlight.net/2008/01/28/top-5-russia-blogs/

Sean’s Russia Blog

If you’re looking for serious, but readable commentary on Russia, Sean’s Russia Blog is the place to go.

The only academic in my Top 5 and (if you count La Russophobe as a group blog) the only solo blogger as well, Sean’s Russia Blog combines academic rigour with an accessible, easy to read style. Sean’s Russia Blog is also the longest running blog in my list, having been publishing on and off since October 2004 – that’s almost as long as Siberian Light.

Oh, and if you’e looking for information about Youth Politics in Russia (or punks, for that matter), Sean knows all there is to know…

I just wanted to back up that one statement since I think when it comes to Russian’s daily lives not getting your salary has a far more immediate impact than the state of the stability fund.

On the subject of Russian’s daily lives, my mother-in-law has told us that residents of St. Petersburg are now being charged for their water, on top of a rise in the communal charge. For pensioners this is going to hit quite hard, she tells me it’s about 700Rub per month. I wonder whether Russia will regret not bringing in the necessary market prices for utilities such as gas (still heavily subsidised) and water in the boom times; doing so would have made them unpopular, but doing so now might cost dearly.

If part of dealing with the crisis is about showmanship, then at least they can put Dima out in front of the public more to build his image as a leader.

Rumour is he is being lined up as a fall guy. Personally, I don’t think Russia has the first idea of what to do now the oil price has dropped and their state champions Gazprom and Rosneft – recently associated with grand plans to buy all of Libya’s gas – are now appealing for state funds to help with their debts. As Venezuela has found out, tough-sounding rhetoric is easy when times are good; now Russians in huge numbers are going to expect a whole lot more than rhetoric, and I have no confidence that the government will be able to deliver. The time has come for Putin to show whether he was really deserving of the accolades.

<>

Substitute Obama instead of Putin in the statement above and it will be even more true. With all due respect, I cannot mention Gordon Brown in this context, as it seems he does not deserve any accolades at all: now or in the past.

Sorry I meant this sentence in the brackets:

“The time has come for Putin to show whether he was really deserving of the accolades.”

Obama’s not actually president yet.

Substitute Obama instead of Putin in the statement above and it will be even more true. With all due respect, I cannot mention Gordon Brown in this context, as it seems he does not deserve any accolades at all: now or in the past.

Can’t argue with that, especially the last part!

”Can’t argue with that, especially the last part! ”

I dunno. My impression was that as Chancellor for the Exchequer Brown had a lot to do with Britain’s economic turnaround in the mid to late 1990s. He certainly cut a lot of taxes. Then again I’m not a Brit and dont really know as I havent been on the receiving end. I like Brown though. Dunno why, I just do. He’s a lot better than the gobshite we have in charge at the moment.

My impression was that as Chancellor for the Exchequer Brown had a lot to do with Britain’s economic turnaround in the mid to late 1990s.

Brown didn’t cut any taxes. Labour only took office in mid-1997, and for the first few years they (famously) stuck to their predecessor’s spending plans. Initially, Brown reaped the rewards of the economic policies of the previous Tory government.

He then broke his own “golden rules” and spent money like a drunken sailor for no real return, and saved nothing during the boom years for when hard times hit. Now hard times have hit, the coffers are empty. It is somewhat fitting that he is now the PM who has to pull us out of this mess.

Not that I’ve paid tax in the UK for 5 years.