Dec
21
Russia’s Protest Armageddon Averted
December 21, 2008 | 80 Comments
The barrage of mass protest fired in Russia’s far east ten days ago echoed with a whimper as opponents of the import car tax hike staged actions across Russia. Today’s protests lacked the manpower of the previous ones, and in Vladivostok, the epicenter of the movement, OMON easily dispersed a crowd of around a 500 people. Police detained about 30 100 people among them included protesters, onlookers, journalists, and broadcast footage by REN-TV’s Valentina Troshina. Here’s a BBC video of the zachistka.
The columns of cars which were so successful in paralyzing Vladivostok ten days go also had limited success. One column of around 40 cars were able to make it to the center of town where the honked their horns. Another column of about 30 cars jammed Magnitagorsk street, while a third of about 30 cars waved flags as they circled the town center. No mass traffic disruption seemed to materialize.
In addition to Vladivostok, sparsely attended protests occurred throughout the country. Actions in South Sakhalin, Barnaul, Blagoveshchensk, Tomsk, Kemerovo, and Khabarovsk were without incident. Police reported that about 25 people (another source says 150) gathered in legal protests in Moscow and St. Petersburg, a number that was completely overshadowed by the 1,500 police and 600 GUVD officers mobilized to contain the actions. About 300 people gathered on Lenin Square in Novosibirsk without incident.
The Vladivostok protests were called hastily, poorly organized and mired in confusion. According to RIA Novosti, the call for today’s protests came from car enthusiast websites. Auto organizations said that they never called for a protest and weren’t going to participate in it. In fact, Dmitrii Penyaz, the leader of the Society for the Defense of Drivers and provincial Duma rep, urged his supporters to not participate in Sunday’s illegal action claiming that they were the work of opportunists. “Now we clearly see the jobbery of our problem among you–unknown provocateurs encourage mass disorder for the purpose of not solving our painful problems, but for the destabilization of the situation in the region.”
It does appear that opposition parties of all stripes are jumping on the tax protest bandwagon. For example, in Kaliningrad, the local branches of the KPRF, Patriots of Russia, the Left Front, and the National Bolsheviks used the car protests to agitate against corruption, high fuel costs, and public services. Most of the protesters, however, carried signs and slogans about the car tax. On Friday, the newly constituted “opposition” force, Solidarity, gave their support to the car tax protesters. In a statement published in Ezhednevnyi zhurnal, they said the tax hike was Putin’s effort to “protect oligarchs close to him, the owners of automakers S. Chemezov (AvtoVaz) and O. Deripaska (AvtoGaz). Such actions have no use except to raise the price of cars and preserve the remaining Russian auto industry. In fact, in choosing between the 20 million motorists and the oligarchs, Putin chose the latter.” The statement went on to call for officials to drive domestic made cars.
To Solidarity’s and other Russian liberals’ chagrin, the domestic upheaval they’ve all been wishing and waiting for didn’t happen. And if recent polls are any indication, they won’t happen anytime soon. Plus if the nightmare scenarios being peddled in relation to the proposed changes to the treason law have any validity, the Kremlin won’t let it happen anyway.
One possible reason for Sunday’s low turnout is that Putin made a preemptive strike. Putin’s move: economic nationalism to feed protestors’ economism. First, he called on the social sector, police and rescue services to buy domestic cars, saying the government would allocate $450 million to fund. He encouraged state owned companies and large private companies to do the same. In addition, Russia’s state investment bank is considering giving Russia’s “Big Three” a total of $616 million in loans to help prop up the industry. Lastly, Putin suggested that next year the government would begin to subsidize loans for individuals to buy domestic cars under $12,500 or less. Whether this will change Russians’ preference for foreign cars is unknown, and probably unlikely.
This is all nice, but wholly ineffective in the long term. Especially since Russia is now intimately tied to global capitalism. The current economic crisis has shown that while capital remains uneven, it shockwaves bat all nation’s shores. Remember VVP, as Marx famously wrote, capital batters all “Chinese walls.” You might as well recognize that Russia’s walls are in the dead center of capital’s cannonade.
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80 Comments so far
More and more, it seems clear that Putin’s plan for Russia’s economy was just to pray that oil wouldn’t drop. I mean he sounds so naive at times, that it’s almost cute. Almost.
More and more, it seems clear that Putin’s plan for Russia’s economy was just to pray that oil wouldn’t drop. I mean he sounds so naive at times, that it’s almost cute. Almost.
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I know I’m not allowed on the Forum to make comparisons with the USA, but it’s just too tempting, more specifically one could rephrase your statement:
“More and more, it seems clear that Bush and Greenspan’s plan for America’s “economy” was just to pray that housing market will always go up”.
Thanks for reminding me why I should remain in lurkerville around these parts.
Buster, did you not get the memo that “Life has become more joyous, comrade”?
The Putinists are really good at riding the wave of success, but not so good when it comes to crisis.
Jeeeesus. Buster and Sean, could you guys wait a little bit to see how things play out before coming to a judgment?
Oh I’m just being flippant, Chris. Though I do wonder about how little I see Medvedev’s name in the press at the moment. Has his job be reduced to sitting in a back room and scribbling plans for legal reforms? Or has the Russian media simply forgotten about him? I don’t really see him showing much in the way of leadership. That seems to have fallen on Putin’s shoulders.
Speaking of media, I think I will compile a list of headlines in the Eng lang press on these protests. The NY Times’ is “Protests Erupt in Russia Over Raising of Car Tariffs”. One would think Russia is experiencing the second coming of Pugachev. Which, of course, its not.
Chris, I’m a little confused. Do you mean:
(a) will I wait to see how the usual banter in the comments section plays out before we all decide that we have nothing to say to each other,
or
(b) will I wait to see if Russia is the rare exception to the protracted economic crisis that most people are predicting for countries around the world, despite all evidence pointing to a grim future?
(Already the New York Times has switched to reporting on countries that seem to be exceptions to the crisis–today was India, which hitherto had been criticized by Western liberal media for over-regulation and a “Hindu rate of growth.” I have yet to see the article on Russia, though I suppose the NYT Russia desk would be the last place to write it up.)
I know I’m not allowed on the Forum to make comparisons with the USA, but it’s just too tempting, more specifically one could rephrase your statement:
“More and more, it seems clear that Bush and Greenspan’s plan for America’s “economy” was just to pray that housing market will always go up”.
No one said you shouldn’t make comparisons to the US – I simply said you shouldn’t make inapt (and inept) comparisons to the US, twisting every circumstance to fit the issue to something you imagining happening in the US.
Which, of course, you are doing again, one-trick pony that you are.
There was no such idea or plan by either Bush or Greenspan regarding the US housing market always going up. Amazingly, the US is primarily a diverse free market. If anyone was “planning” on the real estate market always going up, it was homeowners and lenders.
A discussion of the Russian government’s financial plans – as they are so heavily invested in oil and natural gas prices – is entirely relevant. Particularly so because 1) The Russian government effectively “owns” oil and gas companies and 2) roughly 40 to 50% of the federal Russian budget is made up of oil and gas revenues.
This is a simply staggering figure, to base such a large percent of the federal budget upon essentially a single commodity.
Regarding “how this plays out” – what, police giving protesters a smack-down isn’t news?
AP’s Liya Khabarova is reporting that police from Moscow were flown to Vladivostok, to help with the smack-down. Quotes from several Russian businessmen and activists support this notion.
Further, Sean seems to have completely neglected Putin’s warning remarks on Friday warning outside forces not to destabilize Russia. “Any attempts to weaken or destabilize Russia, harm the interests of the country will be toughly suppressed.”
Apparently, in his mind, it is impossible for Russians to form an idea in their own mind, without it being the work of foreign agents. And if they act out against something, they should expect the police to give them an attitude adjustment.
Why none of you didn’t mention about Putin’s decision to lower railway transportation costs for the cars to zero?
Though, everyone of you smacking lips on how you have overriden Putinists.
Usual Western claptrap and no cidar.
I missed the AP report because I’ve pretty much stopped reading the English press on Russia. But it doesn’t surprise me that extra muscle was flown in since the December 21 protest were buzzing on the internet all week. Moscow OMON is better trained in zachistki.
Does anyone else find it significant that the protests in Vladivostok were not supported by the Society for the Defense of Motorists and didn’t have a permit thereby giving OMON the legality to pounce on them? I’m not saying that it’s right to beat protesters, but you should at least expect a clubbing if you don’t get permission. After all there were protests in upwards of 30 cities, some of which got permits and went on virtually without incident.
Russia’s is not going to be an exception to the global rule of economic crisis. And it might suffer more because much of its economic eggs are in oily basket. What I reject is this idea that this is somehow going to produce some kind of mass social upheaval. It takes a lot for people to move from criticizing a policy or even the people in charge to wanting to rip the whole system up.
What I reject is this idea that this is somehow going to produce some kind of mass social upheaval. It takes a lot for people to move from criticizing a policy or even the people in charge to wanting to rip the whole system up.
Generally speaking, I’m with you on this, Sean, though, I think I am a bit more agnostic about the prediction game in either direction (coming social upheaval or implacable system).
Now that said, what I wonder about, in light of these protests in the Far East, is what regional and economic discontent will translate into in the coming crisis. It’s one thing to beat up NatsBol and antifa kids. But the motorists, disgruntled consumers, fishermen upset about their quotas, factory workers who lost their jobs… I don’t think that’s as easy to play off as outsider elements just making a fuss. Not predicting anything, mind you, just watching with attention.
Does anyone else find it significant that the protests in Vladivostok were not supported by the Society for the Defense of Motorists and didn’t have a permit thereby giving OMON the legality to pounce on them?
Sure – but that is the nature of protests almost anywhere. A ‘legal’ protest is barely one worth having. I saw that the “SDM” didn’t organize the protests and had some choice words for those involved, stopped just short of calling them hooligans.
What I reject is this idea that this is somehow going to produce some kind of mass social upheaval.
I haven’t seen much legitimate speculation that economic problems in Russia would result in mass social upheaval. I sort of wonder what you would consider mass social upheaval anyway. Was the US vote for Obama “mass social upheaval”? I’m thinking no, but it was definitely a reaction by citizens within the existing political system.
I do expect some protests and some social actions. I thought it was notable that Putin seems prepared to blame it all on foreign meddling.
But the motorists, disgruntled consumers, fishermen upset about their quotas, factory workers who lost their jobs
Heck, according to AP reports, they grabbed citizens and their kids who were just passing by.
I live in Vladivostok, and I can tell you that local people are incensed by what happened yesterday. The government, once again (and ad infinitum it seems), will do anything to make sure that any criticism is quieted. Many of my Russian friends/acquaintances were frightened to attend the protest, since the government made it known here that it would be supressed.
Khabar, I know much more about the situation here than you do, obviously. It doesn’t matter if cars that arrive here do so on a magic carpet, it still doesn’t change the fact that Russian-made cars are vastly inferior to Japanese-made vehicles. Everyone here knows it, and thus no one wants to spend their money of them. However, if the government actually spent the money from these higher tariffs on improving the appalling state of Russian automobiles–as opposed to pocketing it–then a raise in taxes would perhaps be warranted. People here are angry because customs taxes are through the roof on imports, while customs workers are the fattest cats on the block. Coincidence? I think not.
Also, bear in mind that perhaps 50% of people here in Vladivostok have jobs that are directly or indirectly connected to the Japanese car trade. Therefore, any sudden rise in tariffs will be met with angrily. Take into account that this new measure was implemented practically overnight, and it’s a recipe for discontent.
My wife and I recently bought a Nissan. We wanted to do so before the new year, since we had an inkling that the tariff increase would be quite big. That 2002 SUV cost us $14K; the price of the same car after January will be roughly $19-20K. That is just one illustration of how difficult it’ll be for those who choose to buy used Japanese cars in the future. The government is leaving most no option but to buy comparably awful Ladas or cut-rate Toyotas made in western Russia.
In a true free market, local car manufacturers would be forced to shore up their working conditions, technology and make a better product. However, these new measures will let them continue to produce junk, and people won’t have any option because imports will be artificially expensive. Eventually, there will be NO imports, and people will absolutely no choice but to buy what is available: Crap or not. Sound familiar?
Protectionism simply does not work. Check out Smoot-Hawley for just one example of this.
Dmitry wrote: “More and more, it seems clear that Bush and Greenspan’s plan for America’s “economy” was just to pray that housing market will always go up”.
Typical response: Deflect all blame on other countries. It reminds me of when a reporter asked Putin how he planned to deal with the mafia in Russia. His response was “mafia is an Italian word.” No recognition of the problem; no solution forthcoming. Blame it on the West, it’s so much easier than actually doing something.
Also, as has already been pointed out, speculation on the housing market was not part of either Bush or Greenspan’s plan. But don’t let the facts get in the way!
“Dmitry wrote: “More and more, it seems clear that Bush and Greenspan’s plan for America’s “economy” was just to pray that housing market will always go up”.
Typical response: Deflect all blame on other countries.”
JPV, false dima is a kid, don’t worry about him. Anyway, I never heard anyone tell me the housing market will always go up. As investments go, real estate was considered a fairly good one, but definitely not risk free. I don’t think I was the only one who knew that sooner or later prices will start going down. It has happened before, it will happen again.
Frankly, what I did not anticipate is oil prices going down as far as they did. I expected that they will come down somewhat, at least for a while, but definitely not by that much. Yes, they’ll start climbing again in the future, but I never expected they’ll go down to the extent they did.
Yes, the oil prices falling have had and will have a disastrous effect on the Russian economy. I suppose that is the price of nearly zero diversification. One advantage Russia does have, however, is the experience of the people with such hardship: Most have seen worse. This means that Russians will probably deal with the inevitable difficulties better than people in, say, the US. The Economist has a good article about the Russian economy (it’s not upbeat, but then again it’s WESTERN MEDIA and hates Russia…BOO):
http://www.economist.com/world/europe/displaystory.cfm?story_id=12797734&source=most_commented
Funny someone mentioned railways. According to a marketing study on container traffic into Russia I just read (proprietary, so can not post it here), overall cargo rates charged by Russian Rail makes it 3.5 times cheaper to ship containers from China via Suez into Bremen and then on feeders to St Pete or Kotka and then to truck them to Central Russia, compared to just shipping via Vostochny and then by rail.
Because of that racket Eldorado, for example, is shifting 40% of its cargo away from Far East to North West. The lesson is simple. Freight forwarding via North West is more or less a free market with enough of choices in terminals, shipping agents, truckers, etc. It works and it is competitive. A state monopoly never is.
Car imports to Russia slowed down big time before this announcement. In September-October a friend of mine that owns 300 trucks delivering new cars from Kotka to Russia has 150 of them sitting idle.
The KGB mentality of Mr. Putin shows up through his predictable knee jerk reaction to protests as pawns of foreign malcontents. Some of us have been very worried about Russian economy going through a process of monopolization under Putin, hoping against better judgment that it would not blow back into his face creating problems for millions. Sean is quite right, Putin has been very successful riding on a wave of economic growth. We shall see what the man is made of now.
I didn’t like Putin’s words much, but I thought he might have been talking to KPRF.
Cyrill “The KGB mentality of Mr. Putin shows up through his predictable knee jerk reaction to protests as pawns of foreign malcontents.”
Why is it a KGB mentality when the members of the present United States administration and close foreign allies have never made the slightest attempt to conceal their ambition to see regime change in Russia regardless of the likely disastrous consequences for the population? Either Putin is right and the discontent is being stirred by outsiders or he is wrong but has been given every excuse to say it. Indeed in the dying days of the Cheney presidency what could seem more likely? It is interesting to have a close look at what is going on in and around Azerbaijan at the moment.
JPV The idea that tariffs never work is classical economics but not supported by experience. The US and earlier British economic power were originally built up behind tariff walls. Only when their industry had an advantage over the rest of the world did they go for free trade.
Dear Sean and others,
Thank you for discussing the issue which is sooo remote from your Lands.
I’m living in Vladivostok and ‘ve been participated in all the meetings
within the last week.
I’m pretty successful and free, travel arouend the
world each quarter and enjoy my life and have nothing to do with used car business.
My problem is perhaps to much books
read and movies watched, and for at least 10 years I’ve been waiting when
oil prices crushed and Punta goes far far away.
The last situation opened eyes to many people who ve been previously charmed
with the glamorous image of Putin. We all got a little bit of pasted and punched and clearly understood
that money to cheat us finished and only lugs left. It’s good, because never Putin could restore his ratings
(even through zombiebox, as we called TV set for the last 5 years) in our slightly populated end.
What is bad is a vaccum of any positive ideas on the place
(but it’s pretty naive to believe that all the ideas will come immediately) and the most popular idea here for now -
separatism. People on the forums repeat DVR (Far Eastern Republic – independent body existed in 1920 – 1922 here) as a magic
letters and nobody knows how the situation will be developed when Moscow guys don’t have money to send Moscow
SWAT to stop people from irreversible changes.
Maria, tell for your little charming Vlad, but Khabar stays with Russia.
I am really unsurprised by such words of yours as a traveller “every quarter a year” and that guy with Japan in his nick. I am not really inspired by any form of separatism because example of Moldova and Ukraine is just before my eyes and I really don’t want people like you and that above-mentioned buyer of $15000 SUV, nouveaux-riches in short, to become a new elite.
Do you remember how the FE Republic ended up?
I don’t have a car, I can’t afford such expenditures and speculations like yours are a mere one-sided crap both economy-wise and politically.
I believe separatism is popular in Vladivostok as much as I believe in the Easter Bunny.
“Primordtsy” are a bit off-the-chair since yesterday.
‘preserve the remaining Russian auto industry. In fact, in choosing between the 20 million motorists and the oligarchs, Putin chose the latter.”’
Since when did the remaining Russian auto industry = the oligarchs?
>>>Does anyone else find it significant that the protests in Vladivostok were not supported by the Society for the Defense of Motorists and didn’t have a permit thereby giving OMON the legality to pounce on them?
The Society figured one protest is enough, the attention of Moscow is drawn. Putin promised to turn to zero transportation cost via railways, which is the fastest route from Asian markets to Europe, whatever they say. It was also said that the government is going to compensate these costs. Another proposal was to open special low-percent credits for the buyers of new cars.
It hardly averted people from two more protests, on the 20th and on the 21st December, the latter started as a New-Year celebration on the central square of the city. Sure thing, the militia first asked them to stop the “unlawful meeting”. They refused, walking around the New-Year Tree hand-in-hand.
Then riot police was thrown onto the crowd like in a classical Western democracy protest.
never made the slightest attempt to conceal their ambition to see regime change in Russia
Even if the above were true (and it is a complete BS) there is a matter of comprehensive faculties of Russian people. According to this circular reasoning hogwash, Russians are too dumb to think for themselves.
I talked to a friend in St Pete last night and apparently there was barely any coverage of the protest on pro-government news channels. Yes, of course, Bush did it. Maybe Mossad.
JPV The idea that tariffs never work is classical economics but not supported by experience. The US and earlier British economic power were originally built up behind tariff walls.
Yes, mercantilism worked for a while and so did slavery, and serfdom. You might have noticed a serious change in the world since these times. Russian economy is completely one-sided. Most is imported. Current seasonal item – новогодние елки – what percentage of those sold in Moscow and St Pete is locally grown? One? Five? And we are not talking about Kuwait for crying out loud.
Import tariffs will not make Lada any better and people will not likely to start buying more of them. Ability of Russians to spend way more then would be considered “within means” in say, US is quite apparent.
Cars are already some 20-25% more expensive in Russia. Russia’s per capita incomes are lower than in the West. But that did not stop lots of Russians from spending almost all their savings on cars.
Sean,
do you think the use of the word “Armageddon” in the title of your post is justified? Or, it is just to amplify the point? I’ve looked it up in Wikipedia:
Armageddon (Greek Αρμαγεδων; [armagedôn] also spelled Har-Magedon, or, in some modern English translations; the Mount of Megiddo), is the site of the final battle (or campaign) between God and Satan (whose name means ‘adversary’), also known as the Devil. Satan will operate through the person known as the “Beast” or the Antichrist, written about in the Book of Revelation in the New Testament. More generally, it can also refer to an apocalyptic catastrophe.
Dima, I used the word to poke fun at the idea in Western media that these protests mean Russia is experiencing some kind of social upheaval. It is also a reference to the title of Stephen Kotkin’s book Armageddon Averted, which the post has no substantive relation to.
“I used the word to poke fun at the idea in Western media that these protests mean Russia is experiencing some kind of social upheaval”
Perhaps my brain learned to somehow unconsciously discount headlines because I never got the impression that recent Western media reports indicate that Russia is experiencing social upheavals. My impression was the reverse, that so far Russia is not experiencing much unrest at all.
I guess there is something to this “unconscious discouting” of media reports, because it’s the same with Western reports about what’s happening in the US itself. If you read the headlines at face value you will get the impression that the US is falling apart, but to the vast majority of us so far there is almost no change in our day-to-day life.
Dima, I used the word to poke fun at the idea in Western media that these protests mean Russia is experiencing some kind of social upheaval. It is also a reference to the title of Stephen Kotkin’s book Armageddon Averted, which the post has no substantive relation to.
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Thank you for clarification. Point taken. RP
Most headlines are merely to get you to read the story. Internet headlines are particularly hyperbolic. In fact one story about the Vladivostok protests I found in a Google news search said one thing and when I clicked on it the headline said something else that was far less bombastic. Still it is interesting to compare the headlines from eng lang press and the Russian press. For example, an AP report is titled “Police beat people celebrating holiday in Russia” while a TASS article is titled with the softer “Unauthorised protest by motorists stopped by police in Vladivostok” Now if I’m into sensationalism (which I am) I’m picking the first.
Khabar wrote: “I am not really inspired by any form of separatism because example of Moldova and Ukraine is just before my eyes and I really don’t want people like you and that above-mentioned buyer of $15000 SUV, nouveaux-riches in short, to become a new elite.”
I am not “nouveaux riche”, but I am an American (which, of course in your eyes makes my opinion moot) who has lived (and started a family) here in Vladivostok for four years. I have worked my tail off to “make it” in Russia as an English teacher, and certainly don’t qualify for your ridiculous moniker. You see, when people work hard, they can do things like buy a car: Go capitalism!
By the way, my car is nothing special here: You want to direct your envious rants towards the fat-cat customs officials making $20K/month and driving $75K Infiniti SUVs (and there are MANY).
I have also lived for two years in Ukraine–a country which I’m sure you know nothing about outside of your myopic, ethnocentric worldview–and I contend that you should be inspired, but aren’t; perhaps you believe only what you see on the laughable programs they call “news” here. We will see where Ukraine is in 15 years (likely EU-bound) in comparison to Russia.
I’ll guess your response (although you’ll deny this is that you’re thinking): If you HATE mother Russia so BADLY, why don’t you LEAVE?! Again, a sad, myopic idea from someone who has no pertinent nor relevant response. I simply live here and understand the situation; as I have lived in Ukraine and understand its circumstances. It’s called educating oneself. The mark of a great country is the people feel free–and obligated–the criticize where criticism is warranted. But you, Khabar, don’t–and likely will never–understand that.
“We will see where Ukraine is in 15 years (likely EU-bound) in comparison to Russia.”
Since two-thirds of Ukrainians do not want EU membership, but rather closer relations with Russia, I find this highly unlikely. I am also unsure that EU membership brings any real benefits to anybody, or that most Europeans are in favor of expanding it further. In fact, I’m not even sure Ukraine is going to be around in 15 years considering its shambolic political scene, massive regional differences, and inability of the government to addres popular concerns (and Yushchenko’s related pitiful approval rating).
Oh, and did I mention that people emigrate from Ukraine to Russia, not vice versa, which might have something to do with standards of living in Russia being much better. In fact, by some amazing coincidence the only former Soviet countries with net positive immigration are Russia and… ta-da, Belarus.
I have relatives in Kiev, the aunt and two brothers-in-law. I am visiting with them every year so save me of your remarks how thing work there.
>>>You see, when people work hard, they can do things like buy a car: Go capitalism!
Thanks for revelation. My whole life I was trying to build up Democracy. Wasted time
Any other tips on how to improve things?
Capitalism is way more important than democracy. Don’t be silly.
I think Ukranians move to Moscow as season workers which is not quite “emigration into Russia”.
Any other tips on how to improve things?
Chris above is right. Capitalism is what you should have been building. Democracy without capitalism is a shell, working democracy is a consequence of capitalism.
Chris wrote:
“Since two-thirds of Ukrainians do not want EU membership, but rather closer relations with Russia, I find this highly unlikely.”
I don’t. Of course I understand that things are a mess in Ukraine, politically, right now, there’s no denying it. But take a look at where Bulgaria and Romania were just 15 years ago. We shall see. Its unique location and fertile land make it an attactive possibility for the EU.
There are many reasons why joining the EU are constructive, the most imperative for Ukraine being that the government will be forced to improve conditions.
In response to the possibility that Ukraine won’t be around at that time: This has some merit, definitely. Perhaps the most likely situation is that the country will split into two, with the East joining Russia (or becoming a true satellite), and the West becoming its own entity. Again, we’ll see.
Chris wrote:
“Oh, and did I mention that people emigrate from Ukraine to Russia, not vice versa, which might have something to do with standards of living in Russia being much better. In fact, by some amazing coincidence the only former Soviet countries with net positive immigration are Russia and… ta-da, Belarus.”
There are myriad reasons for this which would take much too long to highlight. But bear in mind that Russia has massive amounts of natural resources which Ukraine, for example, doesn’t enjoy. It also has Moscow, which is a huge magnet for not only former Soviets satellite countries’ citizens, but also for Russians themselves. I have to say that I have no idea why anyone would want to emigrate to Belarus. For that little factoid I’d say: There’s no accounting for taste
Khabar wrote:
“I have relatives in Kiev, the aunt and two brothers-in-law. I am visiting with them every year so save me of your remarks how thing work there.”
Ok, so if you visit Kyiv every year, then why don’t you give specific reasons why you aren’t impressed with “how things work”; especially in comparison with Russia?
Khabar wrote:
“Thanks for revelation. My whole life I was trying to build up Democracy. Wasted time
Any other tips on how to improve things?”
Sorry that you view your life as being a waste (though I can see you’re being facetious, there’s probably truth in there somewhere). My point was that I’m not some nouveau-riche opportunist who bought an entire region’s industrial factories for three bottles of vodka and a stack of coupons. I work my behind off, and save what I earn, and buying a mid-level car is one reward for it.
And, yes, I have a whole host of ideas on how to “improve things” in Russia (who doesn’t?!). One piece of advice I’d give is to stop blaming others (including America) for one’s lot in life and get out and work hard everyday. One would be surprised what benefits it will bring. Also, Democracy is a means, not an end. Expecting it to change something won’t work. It has to be developed, tweeked, and improved, just like anything else. If I had a nickel for every one of my Russian friends who blame Democracy for Russia’s current ills, I’d be as rich as Abramovich. What they don’t seem to grasp is that there’s work involved in making a viable Democratic society.
I’m sorry, I meant to write that Democracy is an end, not the means. My fingers got ahead of my brain (not unprecedented for me, I’m afraid
).
Chris above is right. Capitalism is what you should have been building. Democracy without capitalism is a shell, working democracy is a consequence of capitalism.
What kind of capitalism should we follow?
Of the Bush-the-lame-duck or of Obama-the-Socialist?
With more or less big share of the state assets in every single sphere of the People’s Business?
jpv, toomanyletterz (%)
Khabar wrote:
“What kind of capitalism should we follow?
Of the Bush-the-lame-duck or of Obama-the-Socialist?
With more or less big share of the state assets in every single sphere of the People’s Business?”
LOL. If you have no salient point you just make shit up?
If you have no salient point you just make shit up?
Are you always answering the question with another question?
It’s a Jewish habit.
I am currently at work. Time-pressed
Ok, so if you visit Kyiv every year, then why don’t you give specific reasons why you aren’t impressed with “how things work”; especially in comparison with Russia?
Ok, just a few words.
Ukraine is poorer nation with lower income(and salary)than Russia. Ukranian mentality isn’t quite unified. In fact Ukraine consists of patches more than two. Galicia and Tatar Crimea don’t match up. Ukraine is a parliamentary republic while both Russia and Belarus are Presidential Republics, it makes Ukraine explode every now and then.
Kiev looks as provincial as St. Pete…And so on and on.
What kind of capitalism should we follow?
Simple. As little state ownership of means of production as possible. As for Obama, we shall see, but don’t hold you breath. He is hardly a socialist. There are very few left in the West. Even British Labour party removed clause 4 from its platform.
Russia never had capitalism yet and the current trend is towards Italy in 1930-s.
Khabar,
People who speak of “Jewish habits” usually have few nasty habits of their own.
candide, it’s part of an old soviet joke.
Russian-detectible.
There are very few left in the West.
What about North?
Finland, Norway, Sweden.
Russia never had capitalism yet and the current trend is towards Italy in 1930-s.
Tsarist times are not capitalist? Lenin-implemented NEP?
Khabar wrote:
“Ok, just a few words.
Ukraine is poorer nation with lower income(and salary)than Russia. Ukranian mentality isn’t quite unified. In fact Ukraine consists of patches more than two. Galicia and Tatar Crimea don’t match up. Ukraine is a parliamentary republic while both Russia and Belarus are Presidential Republics, it makes Ukraine explode every now and then.
Kiev looks as provincial as St. Pete…And so on and on.”
Most everyone knows that salaries in Ukraine are, overall, lower than in Russia. However, as in Ukraine, Russia is mostly poor, with its capital centralized in a few cities and fewer pockets. I wouldn’t get too haughty about Russia’s earnings, as 90% of the people will never get a whiff of the real wealth; this is illustrated by the average salary here in Russia still hovering around $500-600/month.
I don’t know what you meant by “Ukraine’s mentality isn’t unified”. If I didn’t know better, I would think that was a compliment. If you’re talking about factional issues, I suppose I don’t have to list all the examples of the very same thing here in Russia (whese they are much more explosive).
I’m not sure what your point about the different types of governments was. You’re right: Ukraine does explode every now and again, but I’d argue that is mostly a result of people who are adamant about what’s happening in their country; as opposed to some countries where people are complacent and almost totally apathetic to their political surroundings.
I’m also not sure what you were trying to prove with the Kyiv/St. Pete comparison, either.
By the way, real classy jab with the Jewish “joke”.
Obama is no socialist. There are no completely free-market policitians in America (though some like to posit that they are); if there are, they would never be elected. Therefore, one could argue that Bush is every bit as much “socialist” in his policies–and certainly actions–as Obama may be.
The Nordic countries are socialist in policy, but not as much in practice: The are free-market models with high taxes. They are not pure “socialist” (a hairy idea in itself to define), where the government controls production.
“You’re right: Ukraine does explode every now and again, but I’d argue that is mostly a result of people who are adamant about what’s happening in their country; as opposed to some countries where people are complacent and almost totally apathetic to their political surroundings.”
If by “some countries” you mean Russia, it’s hard to reconcile this with the current protests or the gargantuan ones in 2004. Anyway, I think this probably has to do with the central government in Russia reflecting the views of the population, whereas that in Ukraine does not. If it did, Yushchenko would not be pushing so hard for NATO membership.
“this is illustrated by the average salary here in Russia still hovering around $500-600/month.”
Without making this into a comparison thread, this is hugely higher than they were several years ago and, in fact, in the upper 20% of the world population. You’ve got lots of Chinese out there fleeing the Chinese economic miracle, don’t you.
“[Obama] is hardly a socialist.”
What do you think of that Candide: Cyrill and jpv are saying he’s not a socialist! It was always clear to me that he’s not a socialist. Not that long ago, though, you were accusing him of being a Marxist.
Obama is going to bring all Americans socialist tyranny, misery and woe, which is why I voted for him. Yay Obama! Yay Dear Leader!
I’m not sure what your point about the different types of governments was. You’re right: Ukraine does explode every now and again, but I’d argue that is mostly a result of people who are adamant about what’s happening in their country; as opposed to some countries where people are complacent and almost totally apathetic to their political surroundings.
The point is simple. Parliamentary republic is bad for a big country.
As for political surroundings of Russia, Ukraine and Georgia are these surroundings proper. The cherished pets of the West, fed by credits and informational support in media. I would also mention Lithuania where income is appalingly close to the St. Pete’s.
I wonder what happens to NATO membership when Ukraine’s government actually starts taking public opinion outside of Galicia into account.
Actually, I don’t think Yushchenko cares at all about NATO membership. He knows it’s never going to happen. It’s a ruse he uses to retain the support of the Ukrainian Diaspora in Canada and the United States and its lobby groups.
Excuse me Khabar, that it takes so long for me to respond. Looks like my nouvorish life-style
lefts me too little time to chat in Internet;-) I’d like to reiterrate that the point I’m concerned
is a vacuum of alternatives for the regim which is clearly became unpopular in the region, I’m
not a fan of separatism in the absence of leaders for this move, but that trend becomes more and more popular.
For me the most evident answer is anarchy we already had in that place and flow of people out of the region.
“Why none of you didn’t mention about Putin’s decision to lower railway transportation costs for the cars to zero?
Though, everyone of you smacking lips on how you have overriden Putinists.
Usual Western claptrap and no cidar.”
Regarding your comment (conventional and often used by putin propaganda, without any luck, meanwhile):
1. Putin did make that statement without any advisoring with bodies responcible for the effecting and measuring
that desicion;
2. He stated that budget will compensate all the losses of Railways;
3. He also mentioned that stabilization fund will cover losses of banks for subsidizing trades with discriminative
interest rate to force the people to buy these Russian cars;
At least, I think all the described is irresponsible and is dangerous for the economy especially in the current
context.
And a little bit statistics (GosKomStat, not some Western-bought-by-evil-Soros-statictics agency):
persentage of Japanese used cars in domestic trades – negative dynamic over three years, 4,7% (as a prognosis for 2008)
persentage of new cars distributed through the big autodealers – 55,6%
the main dealers of new cars – Sollers, Fiat, Isuzu, Maxus
owners of the main dealers – S. Chemezov (Head of the Board of AvtoGaz), V.Shvetsov (Severstalavto)
I hope there is no need to explain anything – in reality everything in Russia is very-very simple, so simple that
even people without sofisticated education understand that somebody lies and go outside with the protests, not only
in charming Vladivostok, but also in Khabarovsk (but looks like you, Khabar, live in some other Khabarovsk).
“not a fan of separatism in the absence of leaders for this move, but that trend becomes more and more popular.”
It would make China very very happy.
“Remember VVP, as Marx famously wrote, capital batters all “Chinese walls.””
It doesn’t seem to have battered China’s.
Seriously Sean, I’m not sure what your assertion here is. Is it that a capitalist economy cannot insulate (to greater or lesser extents) itself from global crisis?
Individual economies can try to cushion themselves to come extent. I don’t think many can insulate themselves since we are all so connected.
Since capital is uneven, some countries are hit harder than others, or certain sectors are hit harder than others. Protectionist measures, at least when it comes to the car industry, will only be short term fixes. Russian cars can’t seem to make cars as good as the Japanese. My point is that capital in the form of international competition will eventually make even protectionist efforts ineffective.
What about North?
Finland, Norway, Sweden.
Do not confuse extended social services with socialism. Socialism is government control of means of production (since no implementation ever managed to create a truly public control, except small hippie communes).
Finland and Norway are in the league of their own. One has huge oil revenues and can afford whatever it throws at its populace. Another has always been very much oriented towards Russia and gets lots of revenue from selling/transporting Russia-bound trade.
Tsarist times are not capitalist? Lenin-implemented NEP?
How long did it take Britain to establish truly functional capitalism without excesses of early periods? 200 years? How long did it take France since the classic bourgeois revolution of 1783? Russia only got rid of serfdom in 1861. There is no way to transition from prime attributes of feudalism (nobility, serfdom, land gentry, merchant guild system) to capitalism in 50 years.
Lenin’s NEP was as much about capitalism as Gorbachev’s Закон о коопераци of 1988. Again, capitalism is private ownership of means of production. Farm land being one of the most important ones at early stages.
After the initial attempt at building capitalism, Russia has been thrown back into feudalism of the USSR for 80 years. It even had restored some of the trappings of feudalism – nobility, nepotism, serfdom, clannishness, dictatorial system as a precursor to a monarchy. It now tries to get out of it again and seems to be going through the typical process of ГМК that Lenin thought was the last, but turns out to be the first meaningful stage of capitalism. Who says Russia is unique? Maybe only in its ability to step on a rake collectively.
Since capital is uneven, some countries are hit harder than others,
I would suggest it might be the other way around, Sean. It is not the capital that’s uneven, it’s the countries and sectors that are uneven due to lack of structure and regulation.
A country with corruption levels like Russia and fewer real enforceable regulations is a prime target not because capital hates Mother Russia, but because it does not care and will find the weakest link to the utmost chagrin of Mr Putin.
Kolya,
The election was, like, almost 2 month ago. Time to move on, man.
“Kolya,
The election was, like, almost 2 month ago. Time to move on, man.”
A month and a half ago. You are right, though. As Chris says, it was only a gentle jab.
Cyrill, the partial government control is the partial ownership of means of production i.e. participation of the state capitals in a nationally priorative enterprise. Read stories on Statoil or Norsk Hydro.
North countries are the countries of their own leage, historically collectivist in nature. Because it’s north. Long stripes of wasteland scarecly-populated.
Russia only got rid of serfdom in 1861.
Half of Europe are still monarchies.
Waste of public money and nothing else.
Actually, I like Obama so far. He just needs to kick out that gasbag Biden and give VP to Palin.
Cyrill, the partial government control is the partial ownership of means of production i.e. participation of the state capitals in a nationally priorative enterprise. Read stories on Statoil or Norsk Hydro.
Again, my point is that Norway can afford this. Large oil reserves, low population, small territory. Most countries do not have the luxury or Norway or Canada where some 90% of population lives within 100 miles from US economy and can benefit from it. These countries are exceptions, not a norm.
Half of Europe are still monarchies.
Do not confuse superficial social institutions with economic structure.
Cyrill, Norway is adjoint to the US?
Everyone knows Canada is more leftist than the USA ti the south.
Cyrill, Norway is adjoint to the US?
Not that I am aware of. Why would you need to ask? You don’t sound like a product of the US public education system.
Pity, there is no “Edit” button.
Ok, what exactly makes Norway different from Italy of the 30s?
Cyrill,
If you had ever been schooled by any of the wonderful California public school teachers I’ve seen at work in the classroom, you would know that when you add a descriptive clause to a prepositional phrase that has a compound subject like “of Norway and Canada” that clause is assumed to apply to both elements of the compound subject. Hence, Khabar’s question. Of course, if one is a lazy fat-ass composer of sentences, these misunderstandings are inevitable.
Norway or Canada where some 90% of population lives within 100 miles from US economy and can benefit from it.
Tess, you mentioned that having young kids you are very busy with Christmas and all that. Here in Vermont it’s incredibly beautiful to walk the quiet streets at night: with all that deep snow, the Christmas lights, and the Christmas trees visible through the windows, homes here look wonderfully cheerful, cozy and warm.
Merry Chistmas to you and to everyone else!
(And I mean everyone–whether you celebrate or not. You know under what sentiment I meant this.)
that clause is assumed to apply to both elements of the compound subject
Perfect. No wonder kids come out with no brains if they are taught not to think but assume that grammar trumps geography.
But thank you for the lesson, I appreciate all the help I can get in learning English. I wish I could ever understand articles.
Thanks, Kolya. I almost experienced a Christmas in New England once. It was when I lived in Chicago, and I had a very self-centered boss based near San Diego who set up meetings for me and him in Petersborough, New Hampshire, on December 22/23rd. My counterpart in the NH company, who was also a mother of young children, could not believe he was scheduling it like this. (He was Christmas-ing somewhere on the Eastern seaboard and wanted his flights covered by the company.) She set me up in the most charming bed & breakfast in the area, believing I should have some benefit from the risk. Of course,the snowflakes were mounting on the tree branches outside my window when I woke up. It was beautiful. And if staying there by myself didn’t mean missing my son’s 2nd Christmas and my husband’s first in the USA, I might have considered it. The meeting seemed excruciatingly long as I could see the unstopping flurries outside, when I dared look at a window. As I had nabbed the last Subaru Outback car rental in town the day before, Mr. Bossman asked that I drive us both to the airport. I remember how he kept trying to stomp the snow off his black patent leather shoes (with tossles) and would shiver in his nylon baseball jacket. (He’d lived in Southern California too long to know better?) I did get the last laugh that time, however. As the flight to Chicago was to be the last to leave before the airport shut down, and there were no East Coast take-offs. It was a ’so long sucka… moment’.
I think one of the benefits of being married to a Russian is that there is no December 25 tradition. When we met in Paris, the focus of Christmas was food – a great meal. And we try to keep it there. My own family was so numerous, we never attempted to give each other gifts. So, up until the children reached school-age, my Christmas’s were pretty easy. I still try to keep the children’s expectations in line with fiscal realities, but I’ve given in some to the peer pressure and get them gifts. New Years is big — again food-wise and then on Russian Christmas we get to pull out the caviar dish again. (Sometimes we do an Orthodox service, which I actually enjoy, despite my last post on the subject which might lead you to think the contrary.)
I’ve been on a ship for the past couple of weeks, dumping rock in the sea of Okhotsk, so missed the protests in Sakhalin. This move will hit a lot of Sakhaliners hard – both people wanting to buy a decent car, and those who make a living from importing them. Nobody here buys Russian cars because they are appallingly bad quality and almost as difficult to get onto the island as Japanese cars.
This looks to me like the Russian government, facing desperate times, shoring up support in the west at the expense of a small population in the east. The far easterners will now have to buy a crap product for the benefit of autoworkers and factory owners west of the Urals.
But even more disgraceful is the amount they charge to import tyres. Russia’s roads are lethal, one reason being that people drive about on poor quality tyres. Russian tyres are appallingly bad, so people are forced to import western ones. What does the government do? Tax the hell out of the imports, thus ensuring that road safety in Russia remains on a par with the developing world.
I’m just glad that I imported my Toyota in September.
Tess, that boss of yours was a total absolute jerk. Good riddance! If he was from San Diego this means that he was probably Chris’s blood relative. White Christmas’s are becomi