Russia’s Protest Armageddon Averted

The barrage of mass protest fired in Russia’s far east ten days ago echoed with a whimper as opponents of the import car tax hike staged actions across Russia. Today’s protests lacked the manpower of the previous ones, and in Vladivostok, the epicenter of the movement, OMON easily dispersed a crowd of around a 500 people. Police detained about 30 100 people among them included protesters, onlookers, journalists, and broadcast footage by REN-TV’s Valentina Troshina. Here’s a BBC video of the zachistka.

The columns of cars which were so successful in paralyzing Vladivostok ten days go also had limited success.  One column of around 40 cars were able to make it to the center of town where the honked their horns.  Another column of about 30 cars jammed Magnitagorsk street, while a third of about 30 cars waved flags as they circled the town center.  No mass traffic disruption seemed to materialize.

In addition to Vladivostok, sparsely attended protests occurred throughout the countryActions in South Sakhalin, Barnaul, Blagoveshchensk, Tomsk, Kemerovo, and Khabarovsk were without incident. Police reported that about 25 people (another source says 150) gathered in legal protests in Moscow and St. Petersburg, a number that was completely overshadowed by the 1,500 police and 600 GUVD officers mobilized to contain the actions. About 300 people gathered on Lenin Square in Novosibirsk without incident.

The Vladivostok protests were called hastily, poorly organized and mired in confusion.  According to RIA Novosti, the call for today’s protests came from car enthusiast websites. Auto organizations said that they never called for a protest and weren’t going to participate in it. In fact, Dmitrii Penyaz, the leader of the Society for the Defense of Drivers and provincial Duma rep, urged his supporters to not participate in Sunday’s illegal action claiming that they were the work of opportunists. “Now we clearly see the jobbery of our problem among you–unknown provocateurs encourage mass disorder for the purpose of not solving our painful problems, but for the destabilization of the situation in the region.”

It does appear that opposition parties of all stripes are jumping on the tax protest bandwagon.  For example, in Kaliningrad, the local branches of the KPRF, Patriots of Russia, the Left Front, and the National Bolsheviks used the car protests to agitate against corruption, high fuel costs, and public services.  Most of the protesters, however, carried signs and slogans about the car tax. On Friday, the newly constituted “opposition” force, Solidarity, gave their support to the car tax protesters. In a statement published in Ezhednevnyi zhurnal, they said the tax hike was Putin’s effort to “protect oligarchs close to him, the owners of automakers S. Chemezov (AvtoVaz) and O. Deripaska (AvtoGaz). Such actions have no use except to raise the price of cars and preserve the remaining Russian auto industry.  In fact, in choosing between the 20 million motorists and the oligarchs, Putin chose the latter.” The statement went on to call for officials to drive domestic made cars.

To Solidarity’s and other Russian liberals’ chagrin, the domestic upheaval they’ve all been wishing and waiting for didn’t happen.  And if recent polls are any indication, they won’t happen anytime soon.  Plus if the nightmare scenarios being peddled in relation to the proposed changes to the treason law have any validity, the Kremlin won’t let it happen anyway.

One possible reason for Sunday’s low turnout is that Putin made a preemptive strike. Putin’s move: economic nationalism to feed protestors’ economism.  First, he called on the social sector, police and rescue services to buy domestic cars, saying the government would allocate $450 million to fund. He encouraged state owned companies and large private companies to do the same.  In addition, Russia’s state investment bank is considering giving Russia’s “Big Three” a total of $616 million in loans to help prop up the industry.  Lastly, Putin suggested that next year the government would begin to subsidize loans for individuals to buy domestic cars under $12,500 or less. Whether this will change Russians’ preference for foreign cars is unknown, and probably unlikely.

This is all nice, but wholly ineffective in the long term.  Especially since Russia is now intimately tied to global capitalism.  The current economic crisis has shown that while capital remains uneven, it shockwaves bat all nation’s shores. Remember VVP, as Marx famously wrote, capital batters all “Chinese walls.”  You might as well recognize that Russia’s walls are in the dead center of capital’s cannonade.

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80 Comments.

  1. Khabar wrote:
    “Ok, just a few words.
    Ukraine is poorer nation with lower income(and salary)than Russia. Ukranian mentality isn’t quite unified. In fact Ukraine consists of patches more than two. Galicia and Tatar Crimea don’t match up. Ukraine is a parliamentary republic while both Russia and Belarus are Presidential Republics, it makes Ukraine explode every now and then.
    Kiev looks as provincial as St. Pete…And so on and on.”

    Most everyone knows that salaries in Ukraine are, overall, lower than in Russia. However, as in Ukraine, Russia is mostly poor, with its capital centralized in a few cities and fewer pockets. I wouldn’t get too haughty about Russia’s earnings, as 90% of the people will never get a whiff of the real wealth; this is illustrated by the average salary here in Russia still hovering around $500-600/month.

    I don’t know what you meant by “Ukraine’s mentality isn’t unified”. If I didn’t know better, I would think that was a compliment. If you’re talking about factional issues, I suppose I don’t have to list all the examples of the very same thing here in Russia (whese they are much more explosive).

    I’m not sure what your point about the different types of governments was. You’re right: Ukraine does explode every now and again, but I’d argue that is mostly a result of people who are adamant about what’s happening in their country; as opposed to some countries where people are complacent and almost totally apathetic to their political surroundings.

    I’m also not sure what you were trying to prove with the Kyiv/St. Pete comparison, either.

    By the way, real classy jab with the Jewish “joke”.

    Obama is no socialist. There are no completely free-market policitians in America (though some like to posit that they are); if there are, they would never be elected. Therefore, one could argue that Bush is every bit as much “socialist” in his policies–and certainly actions–as Obama may be.

    The Nordic countries are socialist in policy, but not as much in practice: The are free-market models with high taxes. They are not pure “socialist” (a hairy idea in itself to define), where the government controls production.

  2. Chrisius Courtappointedrussiafriendlius

    “You’re right: Ukraine does explode every now and again, but I’d argue that is mostly a result of people who are adamant about what’s happening in their country; as opposed to some countries where people are complacent and almost totally apathetic to their political surroundings.”

    If by “some countries” you mean Russia, it’s hard to reconcile this with the current protests or the gargantuan ones in 2004. Anyway, I think this probably has to do with the central government in Russia reflecting the views of the population, whereas that in Ukraine does not. If it did, Yushchenko would not be pushing so hard for NATO membership.

  3. Chrisius Courtappointedrussiafriendlius

    “this is illustrated by the average salary here in Russia still hovering around $500-600/month.”

    Without making this into a comparison thread, this is hugely higher than they were several years ago and, in fact, in the upper 20% of the world population. You’ve got lots of Chinese out there fleeing the Chinese economic miracle, don’t you. :)

  4. “[Obama] is hardly a socialist.”

    What do you think of that Candide: Cyrill and jpv are saying he’s not a socialist! It was always clear to me that he’s not a socialist. Not that long ago, though, you were accusing him of being a Marxist.

  5. Evil Statist Enemy of Liberty

    Obama is going to bring all Americans socialist tyranny, misery and woe, which is why I voted for him. Yay Obama! Yay Dear Leader!

  6. I’m not sure what your point about the different types of governments was. You’re right: Ukraine does explode every now and again, but I’d argue that is mostly a result of people who are adamant about what’s happening in their country; as opposed to some countries where people are complacent and almost totally apathetic to their political surroundings.
    The point is simple. Parliamentary republic is bad for a big country.

    As for political surroundings of Russia, Ukraine and Georgia are these surroundings proper. The cherished pets of the West, fed by credits and informational support in media. I would also mention Lithuania where income is appalingly close to the St. Pete’s.
    :)

  7. Chrisius Courtappointedrussiafriendlius

    I wonder what happens to NATO membership when Ukraine’s government actually starts taking public opinion outside of Galicia into account.

    Actually, I don’t think Yushchenko cares at all about NATO membership. He knows it’s never going to happen. It’s a ruse he uses to retain the support of the Ukrainian Diaspora in Canada and the United States and its lobby groups.

  8. Excuse me Khabar, that it takes so long for me to respond. Looks like my nouvorish life-style
    lefts me too little time to chat in Internet;-) I’d like to reiterrate that the point I’m concerned
    is a vacuum of alternatives for the regim which is clearly became unpopular in the region, I’m
    not a fan of separatism in the absence of leaders for this move, but that trend becomes more and more popular.
    For me the most evident answer is anarchy we already had in that place and flow of people out of the region.

    “Why none of you didn’t mention about Putin’s decision to lower railway transportation costs for the cars to zero?
    Though, everyone of you smacking lips on how you have overriden Putinists.
    Usual Western claptrap and no cidar.”

    Regarding your comment (conventional and often used by putin propaganda, without any luck, meanwhile):
    1. Putin did make that statement without any advisoring with bodies responcible for the effecting and measuring
    that desicion;
    2. He stated that budget will compensate all the losses of Railways;
    3. He also mentioned that stabilization fund will cover losses of banks for subsidizing trades with discriminative
    interest rate to force the people to buy these Russian cars;

    At least, I think all the described is irresponsible and is dangerous for the economy especially in the current
    context.
    And a little bit statistics (GosKomStat, not some Western-bought-by-evil-Soros-statictics agency):
    persentage of Japanese used cars in domestic trades – negative dynamic over three years, 4,7% (as a prognosis for 2008)
    persentage of new cars distributed through the big autodealers – 55,6%
    the main dealers of new cars – Sollers, Fiat, Isuzu, Maxus
    owners of the main dealers – S. Chemezov (Head of the Board of AvtoGaz), V.Shvetsov (Severstalavto)

    I hope there is no need to explain anything – in reality everything in Russia is very-very simple, so simple that
    even people without sofisticated education understand that somebody lies and go outside with the protests, not only
    in charming Vladivostok, but also in Khabarovsk (but looks like you, Khabar, live in some other Khabarovsk).

  9. Chrisius Courtappointedrussiafriendlius

    “not a fan of separatism in the absence of leaders for this move, but that trend becomes more and more popular.”

    It would make China very very happy.

  10. Chrisius Courtappointedrussiafriendlius

    “Remember VVP, as Marx famously wrote, capital batters all “Chinese walls.””

    It doesn’t seem to have battered China’s. :)

    Seriously Sean, I’m not sure what your assertion here is. Is it that a capitalist economy cannot insulate (to greater or lesser extents) itself from global crisis?

  11. Individual economies can try to cushion themselves to come extent. I don’t think many can insulate themselves since we are all so connected.

    Since capital is uneven, some countries are hit harder than others, or certain sectors are hit harder than others. Protectionist measures, at least when it comes to the car industry, will only be short term fixes. Russian cars can’t seem to make cars as good as the Japanese. My point is that capital in the form of international competition will eventually make even protectionist efforts ineffective.

  12. What about North?
    Finland, Norway, Sweden.

    Do not confuse extended social services with socialism. Socialism is government control of means of production (since no implementation ever managed to create a truly public control, except small hippie communes).

    Finland and Norway are in the league of their own. One has huge oil revenues and can afford whatever it throws at its populace. Another has always been very much oriented towards Russia and gets lots of revenue from selling/transporting Russia-bound trade.

    Tsarist times are not capitalist? Lenin-implemented NEP?

    How long did it take Britain to establish truly functional capitalism without excesses of early periods? 200 years? How long did it take France since the classic bourgeois revolution of 1783? Russia only got rid of serfdom in 1861. There is no way to transition from prime attributes of feudalism (nobility, serfdom, land gentry, merchant guild system) to capitalism in 50 years.

    Lenin’s NEP was as much about capitalism as Gorbachev’s Закон о коопераци of 1988. Again, capitalism is private ownership of means of production. Farm land being one of the most important ones at early stages.

    After the initial attempt at building capitalism, Russia has been thrown back into feudalism of the USSR for 80 years. It even had restored some of the trappings of feudalism – nobility, nepotism, serfdom, clannishness, dictatorial system as a precursor to a monarchy. It now tries to get out of it again and seems to be going through the typical process of ГМК that Lenin thought was the last, but turns out to be the first meaningful stage of capitalism. Who says Russia is unique? Maybe only in its ability to step on a rake collectively.

    Since capital is uneven, some countries are hit harder than others,

    I would suggest it might be the other way around, Sean. It is not the capital that’s uneven, it’s the countries and sectors that are uneven due to lack of structure and regulation.

    A country with corruption levels like Russia and fewer real enforceable regulations is a prime target not because capital hates Mother Russia, but because it does not care and will find the weakest link to the utmost chagrin of Mr Putin.

  13. Kolya,

    The election was, like, almost 2 month ago. Time to move on, man.

  14. “Kolya,
    The election was, like, almost 2 month ago. Time to move on, man.”

    A month and a half ago. You are right, though. As Chris says, it was only a gentle jab.

  15. Cyrill, the partial government control is the partial ownership of means of production i.e. participation of the state capitals in a nationally priorative enterprise. Read stories on Statoil or Norsk Hydro.
    North countries are the countries of their own leage, historically collectivist in nature. Because it’s north. Long stripes of wasteland scarecly-populated.

    Russia only got rid of serfdom in 1861.
    Half of Europe are still monarchies.
    Waste of public money and nothing else.

  16. Actually, I like Obama so far. He just needs to kick out that gasbag Biden and give VP to Palin.

  17. Cyrill, the partial government control is the partial ownership of means of production i.e. participation of the state capitals in a nationally priorative enterprise. Read stories on Statoil or Norsk Hydro.

    Again, my point is that Norway can afford this. Large oil reserves, low population, small territory. Most countries do not have the luxury or Norway or Canada where some 90% of population lives within 100 miles from US economy and can benefit from it. These countries are exceptions, not a norm.

    Half of Europe are still monarchies.
    Do not confuse superficial social institutions with economic structure.

  18. Cyrill, Norway is adjoint to the US?

    Everyone knows Canada is more leftist than the USA ti the south.

  19. Cyrill, Norway is adjoint to the US?
    Not that I am aware of. Why would you need to ask? You don’t sound like a product of the US public education system.

  20. Pity, there is no “Edit” button. :)

    Ok, what exactly makes Norway different from Italy of the 30s?

  21. Cyrill,

    If you had ever been schooled by any of the wonderful California public school teachers I’ve seen at work in the classroom, you would know that when you add a descriptive clause to a prepositional phrase that has a compound subject like “of Norway and Canada” that clause is assumed to apply to both elements of the compound subject. Hence, Khabar’s question. Of course, if one is a lazy fat-ass composer of sentences, these misunderstandings are inevitable.

    Norway or Canada where some 90% of population lives within 100 miles from US economy and can benefit from it.

  22. Tess, you mentioned that having young kids you are very busy with Christmas and all that. Here in Vermont it’s incredibly beautiful to walk the quiet streets at night: with all that deep snow, the Christmas lights, and the Christmas trees visible through the windows, homes here look wonderfully cheerful, cozy and warm.

    Merry Chistmas to you and to everyone else!

    (And I mean everyone–whether you celebrate or not. You know under what sentiment I meant this.)

  23. that clause is assumed to apply to both elements of the compound subject

    Perfect. No wonder kids come out with no brains if they are taught not to think but assume that grammar trumps geography.

    But thank you for the lesson, I appreciate all the help I can get in learning English. I wish I could ever understand articles.

  24. Thanks, Kolya. I almost experienced a Christmas in New England once. It was when I lived in Chicago, and I had a very self-centered boss based near San Diego who set up meetings for me and him in Petersborough, New Hampshire, on December 22/23rd. My counterpart in the NH company, who was also a mother of young children, could not believe he was scheduling it like this. (He was Christmas-ing somewhere on the Eastern seaboard and wanted his flights covered by the company.) She set me up in the most charming bed & breakfast in the area, believing I should have some benefit from the risk. Of course,the snowflakes were mounting on the tree branches outside my window when I woke up. It was beautiful. And if staying there by myself didn’t mean missing my son’s 2nd Christmas and my husband’s first in the USA, I might have considered it. The meeting seemed excruciatingly long as I could see the unstopping flurries outside, when I dared look at a window. As I had nabbed the last Subaru Outback car rental in town the day before, Mr. Bossman asked that I drive us both to the airport. I remember how he kept trying to stomp the snow off his black patent leather shoes (with tossles) and would shiver in his nylon baseball jacket. (He’d lived in Southern California too long to know better?) I did get the last laugh that time, however. As the flight to Chicago was to be the last to leave before the airport shut down, and there were no East Coast take-offs. It was a ‘so long sucka… moment’.

    I think one of the benefits of being married to a Russian is that there is no December 25 tradition. When we met in Paris, the focus of Christmas was food – a great meal. And we try to keep it there. My own family was so numerous, we never attempted to give each other gifts. So, up until the children reached school-age, my Christmas’s were pretty easy. I still try to keep the children’s expectations in line with fiscal realities, but I’ve given in some to the peer pressure and get them gifts. New Years is big — again food-wise and then on Russian Christmas we get to pull out the caviar dish again. (Sometimes we do an Orthodox service, which I actually enjoy, despite my last post on the subject which might lead you to think the contrary.)

  25. I’ve been on a ship for the past couple of weeks, dumping rock in the sea of Okhotsk, so missed the protests in Sakhalin. This move will hit a lot of Sakhaliners hard – both people wanting to buy a decent car, and those who make a living from importing them. Nobody here buys Russian cars because they are appallingly bad quality and almost as difficult to get onto the island as Japanese cars.

    This looks to me like the Russian government, facing desperate times, shoring up support in the west at the expense of a small population in the east. The far easterners will now have to buy a crap product for the benefit of autoworkers and factory owners west of the Urals.

    But even more disgraceful is the amount they charge to import tyres. Russia’s roads are lethal, one reason being that people drive about on poor quality tyres. Russian tyres are appallingly bad, so people are forced to import western ones. What does the government do? Tax the hell out of the imports, thus ensuring that road safety in Russia remains on a par with the developing world.

    I’m just glad that I imported my Toyota in September.

  26. Tess, that boss of yours was a total absolute jerk. Good riddance! If he was from San Diego this means that he was probably Chris’s blood relative. White Christmas’s are becoming rarer. Vermont farmers are noticing that the trend (with zig zags) is that both winter and spring start later. This year, though, it’s a definite white Christmas.

    My daughter has the best of both worlds: what she calls American Christmas and then Russian Christmas. Of course, at 16 it’s not quite the same as when she was 8.

  27. Chrisius Courtappointedrussiafriendlius

    “Tess, that boss of yours was a total absolute jerk. Good riddance! If he was from San Diego this means that he was probably Chris’s blood relative.”

    You will pay for your words, Kolya.

  28. “Японский протест” становится театром абсурда

    Автомобилисты допротестовались. В прямом смысле слова. Волна санкционированных, не очень санкционированных и вовсе незаконных акций против повышения пошлин на подержанные иномарки, столь громко начавшаяся в декабре месяце, к началу января выродилась в малочисленные пикеты.

    На очереди театрализованные акции протеста. Далее, по законам жанра, автомобильный междусобойчик ждет маргинализация и забвение.

    Очередная общероссийская акция протеста автомобилистов, состоявшаяся 8 января, собрала по всей стране в общей сложности две-три сотни человек. Проведение акции было заявлено во Владивостоке, Санкт-Петербурге, Екатеринбурге, Благовещенске, Новороссийске, Чите, Иркутске и других городах. В Иркутске, к примеру, собралось около 30 протестующих. В Санкт-Петербурге – столько же (вместо заявленных 700 участников). Причем почти всех из собравшихся – местные активисты различного рода оппозиционных организаций: от каспаровского Объединенного гражданского фронта до сторонников Лимонова. Не исключено, впрочем, что некоторые из них тоже умеют водит автомобиль.

    В Благовещенске «протестом автомобилистов» почему-то было названо мероприятие местного отделения компартии. Дабы ни у кого не возникло сомнений, кто «рулит» митингом, организаторы заранее позаботились о большом количестве красных знамен.

    В центре «народного гнева» – столице Приморья Владивостоке, жители которого якобы наиболее страдают от повышения пошлин на б/у японские авто, в мероприятии приняли участие около 40 человек. Не помогла даже моральная и дипломатическая помощь японских властей, обратившихся перед Новым годом к России с просьбой отменить постановление правительства.

    Японские претензии понять легко. Япония махнула рукой на акции против повышения пошлин на иномарки. «Правительство Японии считает лучшим вариантом не приводить в действие нынешние меры, – цитируют представителя МИД страны восходящего солнца российские СМИ. – Мы полагаем, что движение в сторону протекционизма не соответствует позиции России, которая стремится к вступлению во Всемирную торговую организацию». Потери Японии из-за повышения ставок могут составить порядка $10 млрд.