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Rotting Russia
October 6, 2008 |
Russia outer face is one of a reemerging, “assertive” power while its inner core is rotting. That’s what demographer Murray Feshbach argues in his latest comment, “Behind the Bluster, Russia is Collapsing,” in the Washington Post.
Russia’s demographic problem is well known. Russia’s population declined by 237,800 in 2007, as the number of deaths was greater than the number of births by 477,770. This was better than in 2006 when the the number of deaths exceeded births by 687,100, but figure remains startling nonetheless. The main projection most experts cite is that by 2050, Russia’s population will decline by 30%. Not much for a resurgent power to celebrate there.
The Russian government has taken notice, but in pure campaignist fashion has turned to making June 12, Russia Day, into “sex day” to promote procreation. Officially called “Give Birth to a Patriot on Russia Day,” was the brainchild of Ulyanovsk governor Sergei Morozov to get women to squeeze out a few more for the Motherland. A variety of incentives are offered to couples who gave birth of this golden day: refrigerators, TV sets, washing machines and also cold hard cash. According to Yasha Levine, the grand prize was a brand new Russian jeep aptly titled the UAZ-Patriot.
Russia’s efforts to increase births don’t stop at the ridiculous. There are other practical, though also ineffective, measures being taken to increase the population. One is an emerging anti-abortion movement. Americans will be surprised to find that in Russia anti-abortionists don’t reside in the church. Rather, they are found among the very people and in the very clinics that perform abortions. Nor is the concern about some soul filled zygote or the threshold of life, but about women’s health and population decline.
Still, however noble these efforts my be, the problem as Feshbach outlines is not more breeding as it is keeping the ones you have alive and healthy. As he rhetorically asks, “So what’s killing the Russians? All the usual suspects — HIV/AIDS, tuberculosis, alcoholism, cancer, cardiovascular and circulatory diseases, suicides, smoking, traffic accidents — but they occur in alarmingly large numbers, and Moscow has neither the resources nor the will to stem the tide.”
Here is a sample of his startling statistics (these are also statistics he presented at a talk at UCLA last spring, which for any naysayers are not his concoction but are based on Russian government figures and the work of Russian demographers):
Three times as many Russians die from heart-related illnesses as do Americans or Europeans, per each 100,000 people.
Tuberculosis deaths in Russia are about triple the World Health Organization’s definition of an epidemic, which is based on a new-case rate of 50 cases per 100,000 people.
Average alcohol consumption per capita is double the rate the WHO considers dangerous to one’s health.
About 1 million people in Russia have been diagnosed with HIV or AIDS, according to WHO estimates.
Using mid-year figures, it’s estimated that 25 percent more new HIV/AIDS cases will be recorded this year than were logged in 2007.
He goes on,
And then there’s tuberculosis — remember tuberculosis? In the United States, with a population of 303 million, 650 people died of the disease in 2007. In Russia, which has a total of 142 million people, an astonishing 24,000 of them died of tuberculosis in 2007. Can it possibly be coincidental that, according to Gennady Onishchenko, the country’s chief public health physician, only 9 percent of Russian TB hospitals meet current hygienic standards, 21 percent lack either hot or cold running water, 11 percent lack a sewer system, and 20 percent have a shortage of TB drugs? Hardly.
TB, the famed disease of the 19th century taking 24,000 lives a year and the reasons for its death touch are inadequate medicines and facilities. That’s scary indeed.
I have only one quibble with Feshbach. And it’s not about his figures or the seriousness of the issue. It’s about his juxtaposing Russia’s recent projecting of its external power with internal decay as if it is some kind of contradiction. Not so in the least. It is precisely when a power begins to rot from the inside does it flex its imperial muscle on the outside. There’s just nothing better, or it seems more ideologically effective, than displacing an internal crisis on to the body of the external Other.
Thanks to frequent SRB commentor Kolya for pointing to the article.
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Comments
138 Comments so far
I hate to break this to Feschback, but steep population shrinkage is true of pretty much the entire developed world outside the United States once immigration is subtracted. The demographic projections for Japan are astonishing.
“an astonishing 24,000 of them died of tuberculosis in 2007.”
In prison.
Agree with Chris. Moreover, I think that while Russia is sick, America is dying. This article in Washington Post that is being widely discussed on many blogs and forums today, is a typical attempt to undermine Russia’s image.
I’ve noticed one thing, - when things go sour at home in America, they always start loudly criticize Russia. To divert attention from real problems, maybe?
I have to preface this with the reassurance that I in no way doubt the existence or gravity of Russia’s problems. We’ve probably all seen them first hand. And I personally have a hard time trying to picture a Russia where everyone is healthy and optimistic and driving western cars to their marketing jobs and everything is as fresh as the sushi they eat and as antiseptic as the Ikea they shop at.
Now: perspective
- I would be very interested to learn how these statistics of health & life-expectancy problems stack up in the context of the past 20, 25 years within Russia. Is it a downward spiral, has any progress been made, has progress fallen short of or exceeded the expectations of objective observers? How many health & life-expectancy problems have been inherited from previous administrations as a result of their policies, how many persist, or have worsened in the past 4 years? How many have improved?
- What is the govt’s attitude toward these matters? Are they trying to cover up endemic health or demographic problems? Do they acknowledge them but not make an honest effort to improve things? Or have they instituted intelligent, funded plans to combat these problems? What goals have been set?
- There’s nothing really surprising in the projection of power and internal decay. But the projection of power isn’t always a ruse for covering up internal decay, or the cause for it (diversion of resources from domestic infrastructure to defence or energy, for example) or vice versa. Sometimes our expectations or natural attraction to the extremes lead us to emphasize the discrepancies in things. A lot of people around the world who are angered ar America’s policies will be quick to point out everything that is wrong in America. But our military might isn’t an attempt to make up for epidemic diabetes and coronary heart disease. They actually stem from the same wealth of choices. And frankly, back in the 1990’s, when Russia was hardly flexing its muscle around the globe and being called “resurgent”, people were suffering. There was truly something rotting.
- Russia is not alone in some of this. France, for example, has a demographics problem, and a few years ago passed legislation basically paying people to reproduce. Germany too. And TB is on the rise worldwide, even in America. How many of Russia’s problems brought up in this post are “proof” of Russia’s internal rot, and how many are the natural consequences of modern economics (where the cost of having children outweighs the need to have them) and globalism (where disease travels rapidly across borders, but international coordination to combat disease moves at a snails pace)? And how much of Russia’s low standing, compared to other countries, is a reflection of its political history (playing catch-up after generations of isolation and incompetence), geography, etc. and how much is a result of conscious neglect or terrible policies?
- What are we, the rest of us, doing to invest in the solution to these problems? (BTW, while it would be bad for Russia in a lot of ways, I am not sure low birth rates are a bad thing. I think the world is over-populated. There is something rather responsible on not reproducing like rabbits. I also think reproducing out of patriotic duty is as creepy rotten as anything.)
I don’t know the answers to these questions, but I think they are the ones that we should be asking. Otherwise it feels a bit too much like confirmation bias or Schadenfreude.
I should add, while reproducing out of patriotic duty creeps me out, I’ve nothing against being paid to stay home and have sex.
I think you pose some interesting questions poemless, but the real figure that stands out to me is for AIDS. 1 million people and a 25% rise in 2008? I would also imagine that most of these new cases aren’t from sex but from intravenous drug use.
Poemless, Feshbach has been sounding this alarm at least since the mid-1980s. I remember reading a long Atlantic Monthly article on Feshbach sometime in the 1980s–perhaps even before Gorbachev. He has seen this coming for a long time and has been in the USSR several times to address this issue.
Chris, from the demographic perspective what Russia is facing is much graver than what France or the US are facing. In addition, there is no denying that in terms of life expectancy Russia is shamefully behind too many countries. Moreover, as you probably remember from discussions in this blog a few months ago, life expectancy in Russia instead of improving started to go down sometime in the 1980s. Something quite unprecedented in time of peace.
Is the fact that many of the TB fatalities in Russian are prison inmates somehow makes it more acceptable?
I surely hope that Feshbach is overstating his case. To dismiss him as simply another propagandist is idiotic.
25% seems insane. Do you think intravenous drug use will have risen comparably? That would seem counter-intuitive to me. The thing about Aids is that you have to get tested for it to know if you are positive, and there is so much social stigma attached to the disease, many people who are at risk don’t get tested. So I wonder if the 25% rise in cases means that actual cases will increase that much, or that more cases are being reported. It could be a bit of both, but getting people to get tested is one of the hugest problems in combatting Aids. I don’t know if it’s a result of policy (people are required to be tested?) or personal choice, but either, it seems a step in the right direction. Either there is a top-down effort to address the disease, or the social stigma is lessening, or both.
There are lots of statistics on this site: http://www.avert.org/ that put things in context. Russia appears to be the worst case in Europe, but not an anomaly.
From the wiki
link
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_Russia
“In addition, there is no denying that in terms of life expectancy Russia is shamefully behind too many countries.”
The reason for this is the same reason male life expectancy is even lower in parts of Scotland.
It is binge drinking and heavy smoking.
This is why the high mortality rate hits middle-aged men, not women, not elderly men, and not children, and is why life expectancy in Muslim regions is 15 years higher than the average. In fact the highest life expectancy in Russia is in Chechnya.
Also, can we talk about this:
Am I the only one who remembers just a decade ago Russian orphanages overflowing with kids because their parents could not afford to care for them? Surely there is nothing to celebrate there either. Lots of kids with nothing to eat v. fewer kids who have real futures seems like a positive development to me.
OK. I’ll shut up now.
“25% seems insane. Do you think intravenous drug use will have risen comparably?”
People have been predicting a catastrophic age problem for over a decade. I think it is bullshit. There aren’t that many IV drug users, and HIV, thankfully, is a difficult disease to catch, with a very very low transmission rate outside of direct blood exposure (i.e., shared needles, blood transfusions). The HIV transmission rate for the passive partner in unprotected anal sex — the highest for sexual contact — is about 2%. To stand a good chance of getting it, you need to have repeated sexual contact with an infected partner or partners.
Russia does not have the social setup which creates such a problem in Africa, which works like this:
1. There are huge mining and other labor operations that call male work force in from all over the place. These men travel from their villages and live at the enterprise for years. It sucks but Africa is poor and war-torn and you do what you have to do to survive.
2. These all-male enterprises are serviced by large prostitution camps, largely women who are refugees (for instance, the slang termfor “prostitute” in Ethiopia is “Somalian”). It sucks but Africa is poor and war-torn and you do what you have to do to survive.
3. The men contract HIV from the prostitutes and, after their contract is over, return to their villages, where they infect their wives.
“catastrophic age problem”
HIV, not age. What is up with my weird typos?
“Lots of kids with nothing to eat v. fewer kids who have real futures seems like a positive development to me.”
Poemless, the idea is to show that Russia is bad, not intelligently discuss alternatives.
…Hey, they don’t have the obesity thing going. And how about Kvass from those trucks on the street: “GOOD FOR YOUR HEALTH.” And don’t get any of them started on the benefits of various yogurt cultures.
the idea is to show that Russia is bad, not intelligently discuss alternatives
So true, so true…
You should employ your wisdom in finding yourself a more attractive username.
Done!
Is that spelled right?
I have no problem with Russians having fewer children. Much better to raise one or two children to be productive members of society rather than half a dozen “never do wells” As far as flexing imperial muscles to conceal internal rot, may I suggest a brief moment of introspection. America has over 700 bases worldwide to spread “democracy” everywhere, when in fact, our form of government is in self-destruct mode. Democracy has evolved into a pork barrel feeding frenzy where the greedist pigs push aside health care, retirement, education programs to slop at the trough until they binge and purge themselves to death. Greed without restraint is death. There is a genetic disorder called Prater Willi syndrome where the self-regulating mechanism of satiety is lacking. These poor unfortunate people binge on food until they die. They are forever scheming ways to steal food from others and must be kept in check or they will self-destruct. Democracy has this genetic defect as everyone wants their piece of the pie to be bigger than the next citizen, even if it is a bridge to nowhere. We have binged and soon it will be time to purge or die.
“The reason for this is the same reason male life expectancy is even lower in parts of Scotland.”
Perhaps so, Chris. I have no idea. Quite possibly a demographer can come up with areas of the US whose numbers are worse than Russia’s. It’s quite sad if there are such pathetic places in Scotland and the US, but it’s much worse when we are dealing with a much larger entity, a whole country of over 100 million people.
“‘the idea is to show that Russia is bad, not intelligently discuss alternatives’
So true, so true…”
That’s hogwash–a way of sweeping the problem under the carpet to avoid talking about it. Does Feshbach, the person who wrote the piece, has no interest in an intelligent discussion of the issue? How about Sean? Even if it is true that so-called “enemies of Russia” are using this info for their own propaganda purposes, it does not follow that the problem does not merit attention and public discussion. Is the US financial crisis warrants less discussion if a Russian publication uses it to try to score propaganda points? Of course not. (I wonder, Chris, if your comments were not mean to be taken seriously. That you wrote them tongue-in-cheek, without really believing your words.)
In any event, at least some Russian demographers are quite concerned about the issue.
“Is that spelled right?”
The Grammar Nazi Poemless hypocritically points out my spelling mistakes while ignoring those of equally deserving others.
“That’s hogwash–a way of sweeping the problem under the carpet to avoid talking about it. Does Feshbach, the person who wrote the piece, has no interest in an intelligent discussion of the issue? How about Sean?”
I was talking about the WaPo, the agenda of which is so obvious I often find myself wondering if they’re paid for it.
“It’s quite sad if there are such pathetic places in Scotland and the US, but it’s much worse when we are dealing with a much larger entity, a whole country of over 100 million people.”
Why? The causes are the same — a binge-drinking culture and a resigned, laissez-faire attitude to mortality.
That’s hogwash–a way of sweeping the problem under the carpet to avoid talking about it.
I think I was pretty explicit in my acknowledgement of the problems and my willingness to talk about them. Nor did I accuse anyone of propaganda. I just don’t understand the obsession with Russia’s problems in which any talk of origins, solutions or the actual needs of actual people is somehow considered to be changing the subject. As if every single attempt to provide explanations or contexts to anything at all is automatically considered an dismissal of the problem! And it is a fact that these types of stories ARE used as propaganda. I mean, why is it even framed in the context of Russia’s international resurgence? Why is it framed as “rot” (usually an irreversible condition, btw) and not “challenges” or “unfortunate suffering”? Are these statistics being used to garner international attention to a human interest issue in order to save lives, or to simply undermine Russia’s claims to power? And who is calling Russia resurgent? Russia? Lucas? I don’t even know. All I know is that in my lifetime, there has certainly been profound unnecessary suffering in Russia, but we only ever care about it in WaPo when we feel threatened by Russia’s leaders, and then the suffering become pawns in our little international pissing contest.
“Why”?
Are you serious, Chris? It’s much worse for a 100+ million country to suffer from “a binge-drinking culture and a resigned, laissez-faire attitude to mortality” than to have the same in a much more limited area with fewer people.
Poemless, this is a problem that has consumed Murray Feshbach most of his career. He’s been researching, writing and talking about it for years–in the US, in the USSR and in Russia. To no avail, it seems.
It seems Poemless that you and Chris are primarily reacting to the fact that the article was published in the Washington Post and not to the substance of what Feshbach wrote. As I already stated several times before, I hope he’s overstating his case, but I don’t doubt his integrity and good will.
What is the problem that has consumed him for most of his career? He was born in 1929, so not Aids. The demographic crisis seems to be a newish problem. From what I can see, he spent most of his career working for the US gov’t. He was also the “Sovietologist-in-Residence, in the Office of the Secretary General of NATO.” And appears to have spent his life devoted writing about to Russia’s impending demographics collapse.
Since 1957.
I don’t know him personally so will not question his motives. Maybe he truly cares and has just had the misfortune to work for institutions with less angelic motives. It does appear that the Russian government has taken clear steps to address the Aids and falling birthrate problems. So maybe his work has not been in vain after all.
“It’s much worse for a 100+ million country to suffer from “a binge-drinking culture and a resigned, laissez-faire attitude to mortality” than to have the same in a much more limited area with fewer people.”
So? We’re talking about causes, not levels of badness.
“As I already stated several times before, I hope he’s overstating his case, but I don’t doubt his integrity and good will.”
I have no idea of his motives or beliefs. But the fact is that the WaPo likely published it because it fit in with their agenda.
Maybe if Murray hadn’t framed his entire effing article in the above politically charged rhetoric, I would be more inclined to share your admiriation, Kolya.
I am not arguing with the facts. I’ve been through the Russian healthcare system, tripped over corpses on Moscow sidewalks, etc. I’m arguing with the intent with which they are presented.
Great, Now I am angry and cannot shut up.
He says, about the demographics crisis, “Moscow remains bent on ignoring the devastating truth.”
Now, it looks like they’ve def. passed some legislation to address the Aids and people refusing to have babies problems, though it may not be enough. But “ignoring” the problem? These problems were actually highlighted in Putin’s addresses to the country. Maybe VVP secretly didn’t mean a word of any of it, but you can’t actually accuse him of ignoring it. Moreover, the problems we are discussing are symptomatic of larger economic problems, which have not been ignored either.
Can we all agree that much more needs to be done without all of the hyperboles and outdated rhetoric?
Poemless, as I wrote before, in the 1980s Feshbach was already writing about the coming demographic crisis in the Soviet Union/Russia. That’s precisely one of the points: he saw it coming and started to warn people about it. Now, of course, his words have more poignancy because so much of what he was warning about came to pass.
Chris, as newspapers go, I like WaPo. It’s one of the best around. Since I read it primarily from a domestic (US) perspective, I did not notice a glaringly anti-Russian slant in it. FWIW, the Bushies hate it.
“So? We’re talking about causes, not levels of badness.”
I don’t understand what that “so?” is all about. A hypothetical: if in country X 5 percent of its population died of TB and AIDS and in country Y that’s the case with 40 percent of the population, country Y has much more of a problem than country X.
One of the sad aspects of this whole thing is that the health figures in Russia were much stronger in the 1960s than they are now. And yes, Feshbach noticed worrying trends years before they became apparent to others (in Russia, the US and elsewhere). It certainly gave me a pause the first time I read about Feshbach’s finding (over 20 years ago.) Back then, though, some of those trends were much easier to reverse than now.
Sean, how many kids do you have?
Hello, gentlemen, from Connemara!
sorry for being unable to contribute of late, as my internet connection has been haphazard, and whilst I have been able to read posts actually posting a reply has literally depended on which way the wind is blowing. If Ireland has a Norilsk or Sakhalin, this is it, sans Tim Newman. And oil. Plenty of turf though.
Whilst I would agree with Chris that this has been something bandied about for 10 years now, the fact is the numbers are utterly stark.
”About 1 million people in Russia have been diagnosed with HIV or AIDS, according to WHO estimates.”
Call it what you want, this is a numerical disaster, and no amount of pointing fingers at Scotland(?) can escape this fact. This is 0.77% of the population. Its fucking huge. Compare with Ireland - around 0.3%. And Ireland has a serious problem with heroin addiction and has done so for more than 20 years. If you factor in the fact that around 30% of a given population are of reproductive age, and assuming the majority of Russians who are positive are at or around that age, thats around 2.2% of the population unavailable for reproduction. These are not small numbers at all - they just look it.
”Am I the only one who remembers just a decade ago Russian orphanages overflowing with kids because their parents could not afford to care for them? Surely there is nothing to celebrate there either. Lots of kids with nothing to eat v. fewer kids who have real futures seems like a positive development to me.”
Russia is not India or China, who could do with putting on the johnnies and keeping them on for a while - Russia is losing people. Perhaps not spending money on penis-size competitions like pointless bomber missions, the Sochi Olympics, new nuclear subs etc, but rather spending the money feeding and clothing these ’surplus’ kids would be a more prudent course of action, no? Just throwing that out there.
”It does appear that the Russian government has taken clear steps to address the Aids and falling birthrate problems.”
If you say so, I believe you - in fairness you know what you’re talking about. I saw an Irish language program about HIV in Russia about two years ago, and at the time Russian Aids activists were complaining about lack of support and the unwillingness of the Russian state to pay for needles, condoms for prostitutes, screening of prostitutes for HIV etc and privision of medicines. Hopefully the Russians are doing something about it now.
Sean, how many kids do you have?
Not sure what this has to do with anything, but I’ll bite. I have none. Why? Are you already making your Christmas list?
Irishman,
Actually - I have no idea what I am talking about. It’s why I am so suspicious of those who think they do.
Perhaps not spending money on penis-size competitions like pointless bomber missions, the Sochi Olympics, new nuclear subs etc, but rather spending the money feeding and clothing these ’surplus’ kids would be a more prudent course of action, no? Just throwing that out there.
In a fairy-tale village, Russian orphans thrive
Dmitri Morozov, a former radio talk-show host, founded Kitezh in 1992 as a kind of orphan collective, building it with the help of volunteers and adoptive parents on a rural plot donated by the Kaluga Region government. Today, there are about half a dozen houses built in Russian-folk style, a school, a communal dining hall and a small Orthodox church.
The 30 or so children who live there study, work and eat together, and live in private homes with their adoptive parents, who are also trained teachers, psychologists and medical personnel.
“We are trying out the latest methods in psychological therapies: play therapy, art therapy, drama therapy,” Shchurav said. “We even play economic games. No one in Russia has tried what we are doing with these children.”
The experiment has yielded notable results. Of the 40 or so children who have graduated from Kitezh, about 60 percent have gone on to higher education and all have found good jobs, parents in the village said.
Vasily Burdin spent four years in an orphanage after his parents died from complications related to alcohol abuse when he was 4. He said he was treated fairly well there, but gained “an understanding of the world” only when he moved to Kitezh.
With almost fluent English picked up from British students who at times volunteer in the village, Burdin, now 18 and enrolled in a Moscow law university, described his struggle to overcome his past, and — something few Russian orphans have — his hopes for the future.
(Was meant to be in blockquotes)
Is that where Chris lived as a volunteer?
That scoundrel Medvedev promised to devote himself to improving social services and public health. Now that elections are over, he’s doing nothing but clowning on the http://WWW.
Poemless, perhaps you would like to read Da Russophile’s three part series on Russia’s demographic situation (link below). As you probably know, Da Russophile is a fan of Putin and bullish with respect to Russia’s future.
Here is a quote from the second part:
“This is best illustrated by a measure called “Probability of dying (per 1 000 population) between 15 and 60 years”. For Russian women in 2005, this was 17% - not much worse than, say, Egypt. Yet almost half of Russian men, at 47%, died before reaching retirement age. This compared with 9% in Japan, 14% in Finland and the US, 16% in China, 21% in Poland, 28-33% in the Baltic countries and 40% in the Ukraine. In fact, it was worse than in many African countries, e.g. Ghana (36%) and Ethiopia (41%). The only states to have the dubious distinction of beating Russia in this sphere were those with mass AIDS epidemics, like South Africa (60%) and Botswana (76%).”
For part I:
http://darussophile.blogspot.com/2008/04/editorial-demographics-i-climbing-out.html
Then go to II and III.
“This is 0.77% of the population. Its fucking huge.”
0.77% is huge?
“Is that where Chris lived as a volunteer?”
Yes.
With all of my enormous respect for Kitezh and sub-Kitezh, it’s like 50 people. Not really reproducible on a large scale.
““This is best illustrated by a measure called “Probability of dying (per 1 000 population) between 15 and 60 years”. For Russian women in 2005, this was 17% - not much worse than, say, Egypt. Yet almost half of Russian men, at 47%, died before reaching retirement age.”
Yes, and we know why. It’s not health care, and it’s not AIDS, and it’s not TB. It’s booze. As the piece quoted says, it is MEN.
But, Pimp Daddy Sean, I thought you had little peeps all over the LA area?
“This is 0.77% of the population. Its fucking huge.”
0.77% is huge?”
Of course its huge. Thats an almost one-in-a-hundred chance of sleeping with someone with HIV - and actually its likely a lot more than that, as most people with HIV will be under 40, and at an age of having sex. Do you think thats small? I do appreciate that getting HIV through sex isnt as prevalent as campaigners would have us believe, but surely its a chance one would rather not take, with such a high number?
”In a fairy-tale village, Russian orphans thrive”
Thats a lovely story peomless, but unless I’m mistaken it was you who originally said that its better have fewer fed children than lots of hungry ones. You pretty much defeated your own point there. So, are you saying its better have less kids in Russia, lest they be hungry, or are you now saying its ok to have them in large numbers cos of fairy-tale villages?
”Actually - I have no idea what I am talking about. It’s why I am so suspicious of those who think they do.”
I thought you had spent a lot of time involved with the Russian health services. Wrong person I guess - I had guessed you were someone else.
Kolya - the stats there are shocking. Am I the only one who thinks 0.77% is very high?
“Of course its huge. Thats an almost one-in-a-hundred chance of sleeping with someone with HIV”
Except that the cases are almost certainly concentrated 95% among the largely overlapping junky and street prostitute populations.
“Am I the only one who thinks 0.77% is very high?”
I grew up listening to Oprah claiming AIDS would kill 25% of the world’s population by 1995.
It is high from the human suffering POV, but from the “this poses a threat to society” view, I would say no. This is localized in a definite subpopulation (heroin addicts and street prostitutes).
Chris, is whole shebang: TB, AIDS, cancer, heart disease, alcohol, and so on. I never assumed otherwise. Alcohol abuse, though, is a key factor that exacerbates all the others. How a nation deals with it is very much part of health care.
Yes, those stats are for men. The stats for women, although not great, are much better.
actually Russia’s population increased in July for the first time since many years
I doubt this 30% decline projection will ever become real
“Chris, is whole shebang: TB, AIDS, cancer, heart disease, alcohol, and so on.”
Alcoholism contributing as it does to heart disease.
TB and AIDS are a drop in the bucket. Given the HIV incubation period, I would imagine that the number of people who have died of AIDS is actually very small.
Thus, the question is how to tackle this problem.
I forgot to mention tobacco…
Nothing in particular. Just trying to estimate how rotten US is
1. Although Russia’s super-mortality amongst working age men isn’t great the effects aren’t very severe from the point of view of sustainable demographics.
All it means is that Russia is experiencing its ‘population crunch’ around two decades ahead of countries like Germany, Japan or Italy which have transitioned to low total fertility rates from the 1970’s. And from the point of view of things like dependency ratios its actually (perversely) positive. Mortality amongst women of child-bearing age is statistically insignificant and that is the important thing from population reproduction.
Finally, about AIDS. I was very concerned about it back in 2005-2006. I am no longer since as of now huge amounts of money are being devoted to the problem, the vast majority of registered HIV-positive people are receiving anti-retrovirals and as already mentioned here the conditions for a generalized spread of the disease amongst the population has never existed in modern Russia.
2. After looking into this in my 3-part series (thanks for dropping the link Kolya) I have concluded:
a) the very low TFR rates from early-90’s to mid-2000’s were almost certainly an anomaly and can be expected to again approach replacement ratios for at least the next generation (based on surveys of desired family size).
b) mortality rates are extremely dependent on alcohol (over)consumption in Russia. Nonetheless, things such as the incidence of deaths from alcohol poisonings halving since from 2005 to 2007 (reaching pre-1992 levels); more income and greater health care spending; my own informal observations of an increased emphasis on safety and the healthy lifestyle in an expanding social sphere; lead me to conclude that they have nowhere to go but down.
c) “doomster” demographers like Feshback are good at making noise but not so good on concrete solutions or level-headed analysis. I’ve lost track of the number of times I’ve read that because Russia’s population will (supposedly) decline to 100mn by 2050 it will no longer be able to “hold” Siberia. I mean wtf? How does this compute? Russia acquired and held Siberia well enough when it had a population of c.30mn and gunpowder technologies. Why should it fall apart with 100mn people bound together by wireless, the Internet, railways, air routes, etc??
I suppose this is at root due to an innate fear of and negative associations with depopulation. In prior times it indicated things like economic collapse, degradation of the carrying capacity of the land, collapse of central authority, etc. Nowadays the reasons are totally different and related to greater concern for per capita wealth; but it seems not everyone, including professional demography commentators, have made this mental paradigm shift.
d) Quoted from my “Medium Scenario prediction”:
“The population will decline gently until 2010, when it will start growing again for the first time in nearly two decades. The demographic reversal will gain strength and in 2025 for the first time in its history Russia’s population will surpass the 150mn figure. By 2050 there will be 157mn Russians. At that time Russian women will die at the same rate as Swedish women, although Russian will still have a little bit of catching up left to do with their Swedish counterparts. Total life expectancy will reach 72 years in 2020 and surpass 80 years sometime in the 2040’s, with the gender gap narrowing from 13 years today to 7 years at the end.
The age structure will not be radically different from the first scenario, the main difference being in more children and fewer workers. On the other hand workers will still make up 60% of the population by 2050 so there is no cause for worry. The birth rate will surpass the death rate for the years 2012-25, but will fall slightly below it for the remainder of the period. However, migration will cause the overall population to grow throughout the whole period.”
(Well, assuming the world doesn’t hit Limits to Growth particularly hard, which was the topic of my last post on DR).
Da Russophile, thank you for the detailed comment! I purposefully singled you out because while looking at the available data without denying its grimness, your interpretation is considerably more positive. I respect that in your postings you dove right into the numbers without denying their validity. I also noticed that you took the long view, seeing how the situation deteriorated from a more stable place a few decades ago. I hope you are right in your projections about the future, but it’s beyond my level of competence to assess which projections will prove to be a better approximation of the future population.
Years ago I had a course in population biology, but in my days as a field biologist I didn’t do any sophisticated number crunching.
By the way, what’s your opinion of the work of Anatoli Vishnevsky? If I remember correctly, he also mentions alcohol as a major factor.
“How does this compute? Russia acquired and held Siberia well enough when it had a population of c.30mn”
The population of enormous Canada, by the way.
“It is precisely when a power begins to rot from the inside does it flex its imperial muscle on the outside.”
Wait a second. How does this work? The opposite is usually the case — it is precisely when a power begins to rot from the inside that it ceases to flex its imperial muscle on the outside. Otherwise, say, Rome would have been starting to rot about 30 BC, this triggering its transformation into THE Meditteranean power, and then somehow survived the rot for 400+ years thereafter during the course of its empire, this rot lasting another 1000 years in the east. A rotting power gives up on foreign engagements because it cannot afford them.
(And what “imperial muscle”? “Flexing muscle abroad” does not equal “flexing imperial muscle.”)
actually Russia’s population increased in July for the first time since many years
I doubt this 30% decline projection will ever become real
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In fact as one popular Russian journalist put it: “If you see a woman within the ages 18-40 on the streets of Moscow these days who is not pregnant, she must be no more than 2 months pregnant, so it is not visible yet.”
Moscow is going through it’s first baby boom in years…. The people have believed the state, there is a future.
Another comment. I’ve noticed that many people on this blog sort of enjoy picking the “garbage”: they look for any news that suggest that Russia is going down. Although they are “interested in Russia”, it seem they get special pleasure in believing that the Russians are not doing well (AIDS, alcoholism, constant problems with democracy, Politkovskaya, etc)…
I think it’s all in their head. They want to feel superior (about something at least) and Russia used to be such an easy target in the past. You know what? It’s no longer the case. If you want to feel good about yourself, - volunteer in soup kitchen for homeless this Sunday, or if you need a more radical solution - go to Africa and “work” at one of the many camps for HIV-infected children, or something like that …
Or else, look at what’s going on in the US. If you ever managed to pass calculus, and know what derivative is, let me put this way: The derivative in Russia is positive, while in the USA - negative (rate of change).
On Russia’s demographic situation I defer to Da Russophile since he knows much more about it than I do. He studied the data without flinching and without finding easy excuses. And, once again, I hope Da Russophile’s and not Feishbach’s projections are the more accurate ones. Time will tell. On the other hand, hats off to Feishbach for being one of the prescient voices on Russia’s current demographic problems–he started to write about them at a time the Soviet Union seem strong and stable.
I’m not as sanguine as Da Russophile with respect to Siberia. Siberia is not Canada. Siberia is bordered by an overpopulated China and China is becoming stronger and stronger. Perhaps I’m being old fashioned, but looking back at history, powerful and highly populated states seldom stay within their old borders when their neighbor is weaker and relatively underpopulated.
China may yet implode (or explode) from its internal problems, but I would not count on it. Also, nuclear weapons make a difference, but I’m not necessarily talking of an all out military invasion. And, of course, I’m not talking about the immediate future. In any event, as I commented before, looking at the future, Russia should be more concerned abut China than about the West.
just stopping in…
Kolya: Why yes, I have seen Da Russophile’s demographics series! (I am a fan of DR.) I was going to respond, but, well, I’ve nothing to add to his response. Except to repeat something he said, “doomster” demographers like Feshback are good at making noise but not so good on concrete solutions or level-headed analysis. Again - I will never deny there are real, serious problems. I just question the way in which these issues are presented. And it’s not because I am a fan of Putin or bullish about Russia’s future or a Court-Appointed Russia Friendly. I’m not peddling an agenda. I just have trust issues.
Chris: You actually worked at a fairytale village orphanage? wow…
Mr. President: Send Vovka our birthday wishes!
When I wrote Siberia I was also including Russia’s Far East. Actually, that was the main area in my mind.
Mr. President: Send Vovka our birthday wishes!
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I already did:
http://thepresidentofrussia.blogspot.com/2008/10/happy-birthday-vladimir.html
Poemless: Do you think it’s a good idea to call the Russian Prime Minister “Vovka”? It’s degrading his value and contribution. If I were you I wouldn’t call one the most popular political figures on the planet (I mean his constituency).
hehe
I read somewhere, maybe in “First Person,” that he really doesn’t mind. Also, isn’t Nashi, famous for their “We’re with you Vova!” underwear, supported by the Kremlin?
More importantly, how do you think his constituency feels about their President using their valuable resources to hang out on Sean’s blog?!
Poemless, our comments were crossposted.
It seems that we simply had different reactions to the Feshbach’s WaPo piece. We focused on different aspects of the article. While the piece reminded me of Russia’s demographic problem, the piece reminded you and Chris of the many not-so-friendly-to-Russia writings you see around. (Sorry, Chris, forgot how Averko would say it.)
As I wrote yesterday (excuse the pomposity):
“Even if it is true that so-called “enemies of Russia” are using this info for their own propaganda purposes, it does not follow that the problem does not merit attention and public discussion. Does the US financial crisis warrants less discussion if a Russian publication uses it to try to score propaganda points?”
PS Ivanov, looks like Russia is saving your ass:
Russian talks to bail out Iceland as crisis bites
Tue Oct 7, 2008 9:05am EDT
By Omar Valdimarsson and Keith Weir
REYKJAVIK/LONDON, Oct 7 (Reuters) - Russia negotiated an emergency bailout for Iceland and unveiled an aid package for its own banks on Tuesday, while Japan called for greater coordination in tackling the global financial crisis
…
ICELAND ACTS
Home to 300,000 people, Iceland used emergency powers adopted on Monday to dismiss the board of Landsbanki and put its second largest bank into receivership.
Iceland also propped up its battered currency and said it planned to send a delegation to Russia to discuss a 4 billion euro ($5.44 billion) loan to help it through a financial meltdown that threatens national bankruptcy.
Russian President Dmitry Medvedev announced an extra 950 billion roubles ($36.4 billion) of new credit for banks at an emergency Kremlin meeting after Russian stocks suffered their worst pounding ever the previous day.
Medvedev said that most of the money, which is offered over five years, would be channelled through the biggest two state- controlled banks, Sberbank and VTB.
“Chris: You actually worked at a fairytale village orphanage? wow.”
It’s not so fairytale when you’re up to your knees in horse manure.
hehe
I read somewhere, maybe in “First Person,” that he really doesn’t mind. Also, isn’t Nashi, famous for their “We’re with you Vova!” underwear, supported by the Kremlin?
More importantly, how do you think his constituency feels about their President using their valuable resources to hang out on Sean’s blog?!
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Poemless: See that’s the difference - you “read somewhere”, and I know for a fact since Vladimir Vladimirovich and I hang out on a daily basis. He wouldn’t let me call him anything but the polite Vladimir Vladimirovich, or “VV” when he is in a good mood.
My constituency doesn’t mind me using (very little) resources to spread a good word about Russia and its great people on Sean’s Blog. Every bit counts. They wouldn’t let me speak on CNN (the CNN air time is reserved for Saakashvili), so I’ve to use Sean’s blog instead, - as we say in Russia: “Assymmetric response” :-). It’s nothing like starting a war in Iraq, spending trillions of dollars in the process (well those dollars are actually paper, now most people on the planet realize this), and losing respect of all, but three nations in Africa. That’s what I’d call “wasting valuable resources”.
Here’s an idea: instead of exporting brides, Russians should start importing bridegrooms.
“and I know for a fact since Vladimir Vladimirovich and I hang out on a daily basis.”
Could you get me a date with one of his daughters? They’re cute (and smart too!).
“and I know for a fact since Vladimir Vladimirovich and I hang out on a daily basis.”
Could you get me a date with one of his daughters? They’re cute (and smart too!).
Mr. President,
Could you just get me a date with Vladimir Vladimirovich?
Also, I see you are a “vlogger” now too. Next thing we know, you’ll be surfing facebook during important cabinet meetings. I’m just voicing some concern. It’s a slippery slope, Internet-addiction.
“Ivanov, looks like Russia is saving your ass”
If it happens, Ivanov will be happy. Here is a short post from Marginal Revolution–a good blog authored by two US capitalist economists with wide-ranging interests.
http://www.marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2008/10/conundrums-to-p.html
The loan, if it goes forward, would be for about 1/3 of Iceland’s GDP. As a rough equivalent imagine that instead of 700 billion dollars the US bail out package was for five or six times as much. Or, more appropriately, imagine the US having to ask someone for a 4000 billion (4 trillion) dollar loan…
Interesting times. Would love to revisit this a year from now.
As to Iceland itself, amidst all the gloom I already saw some conservative schadenfreude. Folks from both the right and the left seem to forget that nobody has assumed that their respective systems are immune from deep economic downturns. They happened before and they will happen again.
Saakashvili warned you, and you fools wouldn’t listen. First Tbilisi. Now Reykjavik. When will you learn, world? WHEN?!?!?!
Here’s an idea: instead of exporting brides, Russians should start importing bridegrooms.
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Candide,
Actually, the Nature is taking its course. The export of brides is going down (Internet is more and more available, so the potential brides can figure for themselves ;-)), while more and more bridegrooms are coming to Russia to live with their beautiful wives. For example, Tim, who contributes to the blog, - visit him at:
http://www.desertsun.co.uk/blog/
Isn’t the silly mail order bride thing more centered on Ukraine and Moldova?
The human trafficking for prostitution thing is…
“and I know for a fact since Vladimir Vladimirovich and I hang out on a daily basis.”
Could you get me a date with one of his daughters? They’re cute (and smart too!).
Mr. President,
Could you just get me a date with Vladimir Vladimirovich?
Also, I see you are a “vlogger” now too. Next thing we know, you’ll be surfing facebook during important cabinet meetings. I’m just voicing some concern. It’s a slippery slope, Internet-addiction.
——————————————-
Poemless,
That’s a bold choice, but I appreciate it. However, please remember that millions of (beautiful) Russian women want to get a date with VV. Send me your picture please and if you meet his standards, I’ll put a good word for you. Is it going to be just one date? Or, something more permanent?
See. Slippery slope. Now you are running an online dating service…
Saakashvili warned you, and you fools wouldn’t listen. First Tbilisi. Now Reykjavik. When will you learn, world? WHEN?!?!?!
———————————————-
Chris,
What do you mean by “Tbilisi”. To the best of my recollection, we’ve not invaded it, or have we?
See. Slippery slope. Now you are running an online dating service…
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Poemless,
Kudos for trying to evade answering questions posed by President. I wouldn’t call it a ‘dating service’, - just trying to help out a woman who fell in love with VV. So many of them though - may be you are right, I should start charging a “small fee”. One condition: We don’t take any $US dollars, Rubles only!
Isn’t the silly mail order bride thing more centered on Ukraine and Moldova?
———————————————
Chris,
It’s centered wherever the average salaries are less than $500 and the Internet is not readily available. Russia doesn’t qualify any more.
Dima! You’ve given me an idea! You should start selling VVP dates to those millions of beautiful Russian women. You’d make a killing. It could be seed money for a rainy day (a.k.a. when all the oil runs out and we’re flat out of way to feed our country) fund!
What were your questions? Oh. Yeah, just something casual. Whenever he’s stateside.
poemless on October 7, 2008 1:38 pm
Dima! You’ve given me an idea! You should start selling VVP dates to those millions of beautiful Russian women. You’d make a killing. It could be seed money for a rainy day (a.k.a. when all the oil runs out and we’re flat out of way to feed our country) fund!
What were your questions? Oh. Yeah, just something casual. Whenever he’s stateside.
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Zdravo,
You really want Russia to be in trouble, aren’t you (talking about us running out of oil)? Why?
How can you wish misfortunes for Russia and want to date her Prime Minister? I see a contradiction.
Oil isn’t going to run out because I wish it to. You must think I am some kind of Goddess who has the power to make non-renewable energy magically renewable.
I wish you and your country only the best. Why do you think I am sitting around coming up with brilliant new strategic industries, like Putin-dating?!
Oil isn’t going to run out because I wish it to. You must think I am some kind of Goddess who has the power to make non-renewable energy magically renewable.
I wish you and your country only the best. Why do you think I am sitting around coming up with brilliant new strategic industries, like Putin-dating?!
———————————————–
Well, I couldn’t help noticing that you always focus on the negative when it comes to Russia.
As for the oil, it will lust longer than the credit available to the bankrupt Russia.
As for dating service as a “new strategic industry” - it’s been done to death in Russia!
Let’s talk for a change about something like “Russia has become in recent years the biggest auto-market in Europe”. How is that for a change?
sorry I meant “last” not “lust” - Freudian slip
“What do you mean by “Tbilisi”. To the best of my recollection, we’ve not invaded it, or have we?”
More cynical Russian doubletalk!
“What do you mean by “Tbilisi”. To the best of my recollection, we’ve not invaded it, or have we?”
More cynical Russian doubletalk!
———————————————
Are you kidding? “cynical Russian double talk”?
After what Condi has been doing and saying (mainly saying)? Democracy on you!
I don’t care about your so-called facts. My beliefs are strong!
I don’t care about your so-called facts. My beliefs are strong!
————————————————-
Yeah, I heard someone recently saying: “The fundamentals of our economy are strong!”. Later on he was very sorry to have said that.
Here’s an idea: instead of exporting brides, Russians should start importing bridegrooms.
Waste of time. Russia makes it so damned difficult for a foreigner to marry a Russian and have the marriage recognised in Russia that a lot of couples simply don’t bother. Which is why my wife’s surname is not Newman.
On another note, this should be worrying for Russia.
“Russia makes it so damned difficult for a foreigner to marry a Russian and have the marriage recognised in Russia that a lot of couples simply don’t bother.”
Really? Has something changed recently?
“I surely hope that Feshbach is overstating his case. To dismiss him as simply another propagandist is idiotic.”
True but one thing about demographic projections is that they are almost invariably wrong. The more dramatic they are the more wrong they are. Some of us can remember when we were assured that there would be so many Chinese that they would have to stand on each others heads. France for the record is now producing enough babies to maintain its population and has few problems in this field for the moment.
The second important thing to remember about the Russian figures is that the early death rate is a separate problem to a low birth rate. An early death rate is actually an economic benefit as it means that the pension problem is greatly reduced. The Japanese economic “miracle” after WW2 is partly attributed to their poor life expectancy at the time. As long as people have enough babies when they are young, they are doing their fellow citizens a favour by dying as soon as they reach retirement age. This is more true of men than women who are economically useful as babysitters for their working daughters
Finally a quick look at Feschbach’s career path indicates that his motives, if not his facts, in publishing the article at this time may not be above suspicion.