Georgia’s New “Evidence”

All I have to say is that you are an idiot if you think Georgia started this conflict. You must also believe that OJ didn’t do it.

Need evidence, go to http://www.michaeltotten.com

Totten is a journalist reporting from Georgia.

“Surely, they aren’t foolish enough to say sensitive information on a private Georgian cellphone network?” – Correct South Ossetia uses the Megafon network which is Russian.

Saakhasvili has lied to the west for years. He is an american puppet. He didn’t bring democracy to Georgia but Ethnic Nationalism. Russia should have invaded Georgia US style and should have captured Saakhasvili US style and then they should have put a Russian friendly president on the Georgian throne US style. That’s the only way to peace in the caucassus.

Excuse me Kolchak, but you calim *Totten* to be some kind of authoritative source on *anything*. The man wouldn’t know objective reporting if it kicked him in the head.

His frontpage has a missive that discusses some trip he makes through Georgia and Ossetia. Not only does he play kindergarten psychology with a focus on decrepit buildings in the Russian controlled areas, and lushly lit beautiful architecture in Georgian controlled areas (both areas are like to have both, in equal measure), but his real crime is his description of his trip once passed the Russian checkpoints – it is filled with menace and supposed danger, whereas in reality NOTHING HAPPENED. But he makes NOT BEING BOTHERED BY ANYBODY sound like the most traumatic experiences he has lived through. He even invokes graphic imagery from Iran and Iraq. Then he closes with this statement:

“I had noticed something while stalled at that checkpoint that didn’t even register until after we left. The letters CCCP – the Russian abbreviation for the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics – were written in black ink on the rifle slings the militiamen carried. Of course it didn’t mean much aside from the fact that their weapons and gear were old. But that didn’t even occur to me while I was looking at them and their communist era equipment. It seemed perfectly appropriate at the time. Communism, of course, is over. Yet during our day trip in Central Georgia – and even a bit on my train ride to Georgia – I felt distinctly like the Soviet Empire was back or had never left.”

What a tool……

So US intelligence has to relay on Georgian cellular operator?

As I said before – of “free media” wants to fool its audience – what can stop them?

“Evidence never lies” Grisham (CSI, Las Vegas)

P.S.: The anti-spam word was again “Borrow”. Sean, shouldn’t you substitute it with one of its synonyms “Lehman Brothers” instead?

Most hilarious comment in NYT

My question to some of the bloggers with a staunchly pro-Kremlin bent: If you’re writing on the NYT site, you obviously have access to Western media. So you can’t use the excuse that you don’t have access to alternative sources of news, and thus aren’t being totally duped by the monolithic Russian media. And yet you still are extremely invested in the notion that Russians were somehow the victims of Georgian aggression. Do you really believe this? Or is something else going on? Maybe the Russian government is infiltrating these sites with pro-Russian propaganda. Maybe some of these posts are even being written by KGB. Who’s to know? If KGB are writing here, my only advice would be to tone down the rhetoric. It’s too over-the-top for most Americans. Hope this helps.

— Jason, Syracuse

Looks like tooooo late to call a doctor

“Maybe the Russian government is infiltrating these sites with pro-Russian propaganda. Maybe some of these posts are even being written by KGB. Who’s to know? If KGB are writing here”

If KGB is writing somewhere as we speak, it WAS indeed one of the most powerful organizations, – capable to travel in time!

Kolchak,

Totten is no authority and although in the past I found him somewhat interesting but too gullible (when he was in Iraq), his recent posts convinced me that it’s not so much gullibility as advocacy. He picks a side and then writes as an advocate for that side. In his long piece about the “truth” of the Georgian war, I think he let himself being manipulated by his pro-Georgia handlers (Worms and Goltz).

Dekkers is correct about Totten. His post describing his brief entry into Russian-controlled Georgia was a hoot. Absolutely nothing happened, except for the fears and ominous feelings he had.

Has anyone noticed the timing of these calls? The first two were made around 4:00 AM on the 7th of August. That’s 20 hours before the Georgian attack. Whatever portion of the 135th motor rifle regiment (the regiment attached to the peacekeeping battalion) came through the Roki tunnel that morning, it would have been sitting in Java all day. I find it highly unlikely that Saakashvili wouldn’t have found out about this movement until 11:30 at night.

Saakashvili has been saying that the news of Russian armor moving through Roki was the “tipping point” for his decision to attack Tskhinvali. So when I read those transcripts, I had to ask “is this all he’s got?”

But we have not done and will not do one thing – surrender to the enemy; the enemy will never see our back;

I wonder what those backless soldiers think about their president?

PS. The guy should be really on drugs to believe his own words http://civil.ge/eng/article.php?id=19525

Kolchak,

I was always on your side against the Reds, but you are putting too much trust in Totten. Sadly, you always had a reputation for narrow vision and misplaced loyalties, which were some of the factors in your defeat.

To be fair to Totten, Georgia must be a scary place to be right now, what with all the armed ‘abreks’ running loose. Bad things can happen to anyone out on their own, very quickly. So let’s stop boasting how brave we are from the distance.

The funniest thing about Totten’s dispatches was how he went to Georgia, recited Saakashvilli line and rhapsodized about ‘beautiful’ Georgian democracy, while completely forgetting to check into views of the Georgian opposition, as if it doesn’t exist.

About Totten’s case of the hebejebes, and the KGB posting on NYT forums…

I’m convinced that much of what we’re witnessing outta the US is some demented kind of projection. We are aware – whether we’re ready to own it publicly or not – of our own capacity for propaganda, of our own unsavory motives for things done in the name of Democracy and Freedom, of our own lack of trustworthiness, of our own precarious position and the things we’re capable of doing out of desperation or manipulation. So, accordingly, we look for and find these things in others. Our own loss of control and power and leadership and stability and all things good and noble seems to be directly proportionate to our condemnation and fear of Russia. Why Russia in particular? Is it the devil we know? Is it that they are a rising star while we’re falling? Anyway – projection, projection, projection. That’s gotta be one of the core elements in a Cold War: the more loss of control (real or perceived) you feel at home, the more you demonize the enemy on the other side of the planet. Projection and distraction. America’s in all kinds of trouble right now, and I really can’t think of anything Russia’s done to directly create those problems. But Russia’s what we’re talking about.

FWIW, I suspect more than one of us have, unlike Totten, actually been in scary, threatening situations in Russia. I don’t know that these events prove anything, or that experiencing them makes a person take a “side.” Akin to Totten’s CCCP-o-phobia, I personally get the hebejebes when I hear Americans chanting “USA! USA!” So I don’t doubt the veracity of his feelings. But “You are creeping me out” is a ridiculous line of argumentation….

By the way, I don’t know about this “братишкa” designation…

Poemless, I usually do not indulge in psychological interpretations but with Totten it was indeed pretty obvious that much of it was “projection”.

Candide, you wrote:

“To be fair to Totten, Georgia must be a scary place to be right now, what with all the armed ‘abreks’ running loose. Bad things can happen to anyone out on their own, very quickly. So let’s stop boasting how brave we are from the distance”

I don’t know if anyone here is boasting about their bravery. I know, though, that there have been plenty of journalists and many other people who in the past weeks visited Georgia after the end of hostilities. They traveled to the recent war zone, went through check points, and somehow managed to describe things in a manner of fact way without coloring what they saw with feelings of ominous threat.

It’s not the style but the gender that doesn’t fit…

“I’ll probably do my paper for the upcoming AAASS on hyper-masculinity in the Komsomol.”

Wasn’t this a gay porn movie?

Isn’t the most damning bit here that when Saakashvili gave his victory speech when he thought he had taken Tskhinvali, he made no mention of these Russian soldiers whatsoever?

“why was it Ossetian militias and bands Kalashnikov wielding and molotov cocktail throwing teenagers that initially beat down Georgia’s forces?”

Red Dawn was ahead of its time!

I would have suggested Братишки и Cестренки, but you seem to have a whole historically referenced culturally ironic thing goin’ on – so I’ll defer to your preferences.

I really did not know that about the Komsomols. The early communists were down with feminism (equal rights for women), and I thought under Communism there were certain quotas regarding female representation in the Party. Hm. Or are you referring to more of a machismo attitude. Like, they weren’t very lady-like? Lol. No “dyevs” allowed?

“You really are lonely!”

No… just with a truly, incredibly bad sense of humor.

Krasnyi Don Juans”

Added to my fantasy list of names for rock groups…

I also have mention of a suicide group called the League of Death. They sat around and read Esenin.

1. So this would have been the group Chris would have belonged to?
2. Someone inform the Duma there’s Russian cultural precedent for Emo!

“He has two big brass ones and he’s not afraid to pull them out and clang them on the table.”

I’m pretty sure this was in the movie too.

“So this would have been the group Chris would have belonged to?”

Harrumph. It’s way cooler than being a hippy.

So let’s stop boasting how brave we are from the distance

Ivans The terribles, brave Georgians and terrorised reporters
http://civil.ge/eng/category.php?id=87&gallery=22&photo=272

Back to the US elections, something quite amazing just happened. An historical moment:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_TiQCJXpbKg

Harrumph. It’s way cooler than being a hippy.

Yes, yes it is…

Since we’re being funny, here’s some fun to end your day with:

http://punditkitchen.com/tag/vladimir-putin/

“Back to the US elections, something quite amazing just happened. An historical moment:”

Is this for real?

”Since we’re being funny, here’s some fun to end your day with:

http://punditkitchen.com/tag/vladimir-putin/”

Its very funny in fairness, especially the S&M magazine totalitarian issue!

I wonder how much of this will hurt McCain, who foolishly got himself too close to Saakashvili.

As for why the coverage and thus perception was so one-sided – there is a very dangerous black and white ideological strain in the US. The Bush administration exemplifies it better then anybody else. But lots of people in the media are just like Bush, no matter how much they claim to be different. Ideologies drive coverage with almost no exceptions.

I am not ready to subscribe to russophobia as the main culprit. I think this is a colossal example of wishful thinking. On both sides. What I saw of Russian coverage and perceptions seem to be almost exactly the opposites.

Whatever angered Russia (or Putin) about the rose revolution and how this anger formed its policy was to me a giant overreaction and it almost mirrors adulation in the West. This is a dangerous situation when opportunists and gamblers can try to play both sides against each other and succeed.

““Back to the US elections, something quite amazing just happened. An historical moment:”

Is this for real?”

No. I assume a techie or two with a good sense of humor put it together.

Russian officials have said Michael Lee White was a U.S. agent involved in the recent fighting between their troops and Georgia. They claim to have found the Army veteran’s passport in Georgia’s breakaway province of South Ossetia. But in his cramped teacher’s apartment at a business college in southern China, the American said Wednesday that he’d never been to Georgia. When the five-day war was raging last month, White said, he was in his hometown of Austin, Texas, caring for his sick father. The CIA denied that White was working for it. White thinks the passport the Russians have is one he lost during a flight from Moscow to New York in October 2005. White said he reported his lost passport and was given a new one the same year. “It still seems bizarre that they would make accusations like that with so little evidence,” said White, a soft-spoken English teacher. Russian officials have suggested that Americans directly supported Georgia’s Aug. 7 assault on South Ossetia, which is backed by Russia. Russian Col. Gen. Anatoly Nogovitsyn, showed reporters a copy of what he said was White’s passport Aug. 28. He said it was found in a basement among items that belonged to retreating Georgian soldiers.

– The Los Angeles Times, September 4th

The propaganda war has begun. Both sides are firing salvos. The problem is that Russia because of her history had a credibility issue. Statements like the one above do not help. So when Russia comes out with a statement you have to take it for the gum wrapper it is printed on. That is why Totten has more credibility than Putin.

What did the Georgian conflict get Russia? A big headache. That is all. Even if we assume that Georgia started it, Russia gained practically nothing and lost much prestige and its markets. Mr. Furman puts it even better below. (This is why you don’t appoint leaders but elect them. Putin and Medvedev are a tag team disaster sending Russia down faster than Lehman Brothers.

While he is not a businessman, Dmitry Furman, one of Moscow’s most distinguished historians, may have provided some insight into the thinking of many in Russia now when he suggested in an interview posted online today that Moscow’s “war with Georgia gave Russia nothing except euphoria”. One can explain, he says, what Moscow did in Georgia in psychological terms – the Kremlin decided that President Mikhail Saakashvili needed to be punished for his outspoken anti-Moscow views and that Georgia was small enough and far enough away from Europe to make it “an ideal boy for beating.” And it is also possible to explain the support the Kremlin has received so far from the Russian population in psychological terms as well, the Moscow historian continues. The population, he says, has the psychology of a teenager. It wants to demonstrate that it cannot be pushed around. When the government strikes a similar pose, the Russian people will support it.

But neither of these psychological impulses has generated the kind of strategy that justifies what Moscow is doing, something that might allow it to attract support from others and guarantee that the Russian government and the Russian people will continue to act in a consistent way. Indeed, Furman says, at the present time, Moscow “does not have any strategy at all or any long term plans.” That is a major shift from Soviet times, then Moscow had a policy and both the Soviet people and the world knew what it was, allowing for both consistency and predictability. But “in the current political system which copies the Soviet system with its lack of rotation at the top, its unity of power, and its ritual democratic process, there is not the former ideological basis.” And the ideological basis that the leadership offers to the Russian people and the world “is contradicted by our reality.”

“Medvedev and Putin say of themselves ‘We are democrats,’ and they are not lying; they really think of themselves that way. But at the same time, Putin over the course of his time in office finished building the undivided presidential system of power which Yeltsin had begun and both did everything they could so that Russia would not be surrounded by democratic states.”

“We have no ideology which could justify our current reality,” Furman observes. “And therefore, there cannot be a strategy.” Without a strategy, he says, it is impossible to decide what to do or to determine what constitutes victory. With regard to Georgia, “what did we want?” That is a question that no one in the Russian government answered or even tried to answer. And all the suggestions by others have fallen short. “Did we want to support small peoples oppressed by the Georgians out of humanitarian considerations? That explanation is completely excluded to the extent that we had [the two military conflicts with independence-minded] Chechnya, and there humanitarian considerations did not play any role.”

“Had we decided to include within Russia Georgian territories and thus expand the size of our state? Then the question immediately arises: what do we in general want to add? Where is the territory? Before, there was the idea of the victory of socialism in the whole world. But what is involved here? Whom do we want to join with us?” Furman said. Asked by his interviewer whether Moscow might have taken this action to remove Saakashvili. His response to that notion is devastating. “This is not the way to do it. Instead, by our actions, we strengthened his power.” And even if he were removed, Moscow lacks “the people and mechanisms” to put Moscow’s man in his place. And if “we wanted not to allow the Americans to assume a major role in Georgia,” then what Russia did has had the opposite effect, driving that country and its citizens further away from Russia than ever before and closer than ever before into the arms of the West in general and the United States in particular.

Without a strategy, Moscow has not expanded its control over pipeline routes and it has acted in a way that guarantees not only “the increase of our isolation in the world” but “a new outburst of separatism in Russia” because “it is impossible to have at one and the same time a Russian embassy in Tskhinvali and a peaceful Chechnya and Ingushetia inside Russia.” Moreover, without a strategy, it has not won over even its supposed allies in the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) because that body, which he says is “melting” like an iceberg is now little more than a mutual protection society for authoritarian regimes who are fearful of “orange”-style revolutions.

There is, Furman says, “no principle difference between the regimes of [Uzbekistan’s Islam] Karimov, [Kazakhstan’s Nursultan] Nazarbayev and [the Russian Federation’s Dmitry} Medvedev.” When times are good, they all look to the West; when times are bad, they gather around Moscow for protection. But there is an even more serious problem with Moscow’s lack of a strategy, Furman argues: It both reflects and reinforces the reality that Russia is now a country where everything could change overnight, the hope of some but the greatest fear of many in the business-bureaucratic elite, who would likely be among the biggest losers such change occurred.

“Totten has more credibility than Putin.”

Even so, a bit more than zero may be, but still not very much.

Btw, has someone said ‘dyev”? I thought we only recently conducted a show trial on comrade Irishman to teach everyone a lesson not to use this abomination…

Kolchak, as folks in this blog know, I don’t like Putin and I find much of Russia’s propaganda laughably crude (e.g. White’s passport.) On the narrow issue of Totten and his claims about Georgia and Russia, you are simply wrong in finding him credible. Candide is even more critical of Putin and Russia’s current government than I am also finds that Totten lacks credibility with respect to Georgia. And Candide (from what he wrote) was someone who used to trust Totten’s Middle East missives. Don’t construe criticism of Totten as an endorsement of Putin and Medvedev.

If you want to read and hear what an American war reporter with several years of experience in hot zones such as Abkhazia, Ossetia, Chechnya, Pakistan, Afghanistan and Iraq, check out Dodge Billingsley. He’s not a Russophile, he likes Georgia, and yet he’s a fairly objective reporter. Here is his sporadic blog:

http://www.combatfilms.com/blog/

For an interesting lecture on Georgia and Abkhazia, very timely even though it was given in February:

http://fora.tv/2008/02/06/Abkhazia_Untold_War_Story

““We have no ideology which could justify our current reality,” Furman observes. “And therefore, there cannot be a strategy.””

Does anybody else find this statement to be truly bizarre?

“And it is also possible to explain the support the Kremlin has received so far from the Russian population in psychological terms as well, the Moscow historian continues.”

Hey, here’s an idea — maybe the support the Kremlin has received so far from the Russian population has to do with the human psychological condition of liking to eat?

Hey, here’s an idea — maybe the support the Kremlin has received so far from the Russian population has to do with the human psychological condition of liking to eat?

If this is true, then it is an acknowledgement of what I have thought for a long time: that Russians, in judging their leaders, set the bar incredibly low.

Here we have a Russia which claims it is once again a power to be reckoned with and on a better footing than the US due to its enormous gas reserves, yet the government is deemed to be doing well because people have enough to eat. Never mind that in the countries alongside which Russia thinks it can rub shoulders, having enough to eat has not been a concern (outside of wartime) for about a hundred years. On this measure, Russia would find more in common with the governments of banana republics.

Statament using rhetorical hyperbole misconstrued as statement of fact.

Statament using rhetorical hyperbole misconstrued as statement of fact.

I should have known better.

17 09 08 Arguments over the details are a waste of time. So Mr White wasn’t there. So who stole his passport? So what?

Fact is that Saakashvili, almost certainly encouraged and assisted by the Cheney element in the US administration, tried to pull off a quick victory and for whatever reason messed it up. They failed to block the Roki tunnel in time probably because they planned to chase the South Ossetians out through it first. This is a straight imitation of what succeeded in Croatia against the Serbs in ‘95.

The US involvement has to be hushed up. NATO, the EU know what happened, they probably were waiting to see how it would turn out. Even the Russians do not seem keen to push the point very far.

However the Russians lose because they cannot as things stand avoid accusations of over reaction. Its the Soviet syndrome. There have been no answers to the question “what would have been a reasonable reaction?”. They also lose because they do not want any sort of an arms race, they want to rebuild Russia economically. The US will now try and scare the Europeans into accepting Ukraine and Georgia into NATO which was one of their reasons for helping Georgia start the war in the first place. But finally it would be simplistic to say that the expansion of NATO and all this ballyhoo is only to pin back Russia . There is another more immediate reason. Without an expanded NATO to provide cannon fodder the US is either going to have to abandon its expansionist military policies or reintroduce the draft. It cannot continue with its present policies as things are as there is no money and not enough men.

Do you have any evidence that the US was instrumental in starting the war other than Saakashvili (suuposedly) being close to Cheney?

I really, really love that photo of Saakashvili munching his tie. It’s iconic!

”Hey, here’s an idea — maybe the support the Kremlin has received so far from the Russian population has to do with the human psychological condition of liking to eat?”

They’re easily pleased then. Mobile phones and expensive knickers must totally drive them wild with love for the Kremlin

Fact is that Saakashvili, almost certainly encouraged and assisted by the Cheney element in the US administration, tried to pull off a quick victory and for whatever reason messed it up.

I’m wondering what the story will be by Christmas:

“Russian reports of captured Georgian tanks and aircraft with the Georgian markings still wet having been hastily painted over divisional markings of the US Army, are certainly true. As are reports of “Georgian” soldiers reverting to Deep South drawl under torture. Of course the US denies everything, but fortunately Putin is not so stupid, and rightly sees this as a direct American attack on the Russian Federation, against which it is entitled to retaliate by recapturing Crimea.”

The UN refugee agency (UNHCR)….also said that the destruction of buildings and houses “is not as widespread as was initially feared and varies from village to village.”

In Karaleti, for example, a UNHCR team counted 29 houses destroyed, out of some 600 there. UNHCR said that in Kitsnisi, only a few buildings have been burned or bombed,

http://civil.ge/eng/article.php?id=19529

“Mobile phones and expensive knickers must totally drive them wild with love for the Kremlin”

BINGO!!!!

“I really, really love that photo of Saakashvili munching his tie. It’s iconic!”

I agree. Another good one is where he’s cowering under his body guards.

Hey, here’s an idea — maybe the support the Kremlin has received so far from the Russian population has to do with the human psychological condition of liking to eat?

I thought it had more to do with liking Armani and Dolce & Gabbana.

Most Russians I know have moved well beyond worrying about affording food, and save their money for those luxury and ultra-luxury items they can afford (afford in a different sense than most Americans or Europeans would look at it).

Nobody wants to look like a лох.

I thought we only recently conducted a show trial on comrade Irishman to teach everyone a lesson not to use this abomination…

I witnessed that. But I think anyone who has ever been called that word has immunity when using it themselves. Something about co-opting the vocabulary of the oppressor class… Like “queer” or “b*tch.”

More Evidence that Saak was telling the truth and Putin was lying.

The latest news is Georgia’s revelation of Ossetian radio transmissions showing Russian armor moving into Ossetia, Georgian territory, without authorization a full day before Georgian forces moved against Ossetia’s capital, making a boldfaced liar and naked aggressor out of Russian dictator Vladimir Putin. Meanwhile, Robert Amsterdam reports that China, supposedly Russia’s ally, has joined the rebuilding effort in Georgia in a big way.

C – C “Do you have any evidence that the US was instrumental in starting the war other than Saakashvili (suuposedly) being close to Cheney?”

No sorry no scoop but I did say “elements in the US administration” They are clearly divided. A number of things convince me. First they have admitted they knew what was brewing. How could they do otherwise? So it is only a question of the small step in the direction of “was there help?” I think it is extremely likely, probably without telling the State Department. It is not as if it was a sudden new departure for the US to give friends a quiet helping hand. First of all Saakashivili is not crazy, despite his tie chewing. Second Putin has made the accusations and linked it to the Republican presidential campaign and he does not speak lightly. There is in addition the whole Schoeneman connection. Sarkozy who negotiated the ceasefire has been quietly quite sympathetic to the Russians. He accepted publicly on day one that they were entitled to do what they did. There were the NATO exercises just ending. Saakashvili was running out of time and so was the Bush administration to fulfil the promises to regain the lost territories. I think there was very likely an agreement dating back to 2003 – troops in Iraq and pipeline security against what? But it is similarity with operation Storm of 1995 in Croatia that most convinces me. The similarities between the two events are uncanny. “It had to be over in five days”. It was during a pre electoral period. The ambassador was not informed. There was a very interesting article from the Croatian Weekly Magazine describing it all on
http://www.nacional.hr/index3e.php?broj=2005-05-24&kat=english&id=516 that curiously seems just to have disappeared from the net. Luckily I have a copy. If you are interested I will post it but it is quite long.

Kolchak, did you read this post? The one Sean wrote, “Georgia’s New ‘Evidence’”? It seems that you are emotionally invested in one idea and you simply will not let it go. Oh, well. Suit yourself.

The truth, you want the truth. You can’t handle the truth. Sean is Putin’s love puddle. How often do you go and bend over for Vlad? Does he invite Dimitri over for a three some?

At the height of the crisis over Russia’s invasion of Georgia last month, Prime Minister Vladimir Putin summoned the top executives of his nation’s most influential newspapers and broadcasters to a private meeting in the Black Sea resort of Sochi.

The Kremlin controls much of the Russian media, and Putin occasionally meets with friendly groups of senior journalists to answer questions and guide news coverage. On Aug. 29, though, for the first time in five years, he also invited the editor in chief of Echo Moskvy, the only national radio station that routinely broadcasts opposition voices.

For several minutes, according to people who attended the session or were briefed about it, Putin berated the editor in front of his peers, criticizing Echo’s coverage of the war with Georgia and reading from a dossier of transcripts to point out what he considered errors. “I’m not interested in who said these things,” one participant quoted Putin telling the editor, Alexei Venediktov. “You are responsible for everything that goes on at the radio station. I don’t know who they are, but I know who you are.”

The message to the 30 or so media executives at the gathering was clear: With Russia occupying parts of Georgia and locked in perhaps its most serious conflict with the West since the Cold War, they should be especially vigilant against reporting anything that the government might find objectionable.

“All hope is gone,” she said. “Basically, most of the liberals are trying to figure out if we are about to go into a repressive period in our history. It means what’s left of the free media may disappear. We don’t know if Echo Moskvy will exist a month from now.”

“Kolchak, did you read this post?”

Evidently not.

Personally, I think Kolchak is probably a teenager, circa 17 or 18, 21-22 tops, with a silly preoccupation.

Kolchak, I’d be more impressed by satellite photos than anonymous phone calls from a source that clearly has an axe to grind. The Russian’s simply explained that it could be just the regular rotation of peace-keeper units.

As for the lack of Chinese support for Russia, the answer is of course much more nuanced (just like Chinese policy always is). The Asia Times* has an interesting take on this:

China still on-side with Russia
http://atimes.com/atimes/China/JI06Ad01.html

They also have a very, very interesting piece on the developing Russia-Turkey relations:

Russia and Turkey tango in the Black Sea
http://atimes.com/atimes/Central_Asia/JI12Ag01.html

To me, the runes have long since been cast – and NATO is now heading to its inevitable, slow and miserable end. With no glue to keep it together (Cold War rather than Cold Sore), multiple and varying centripetal forces are starting to do its stuff. Turkey is a case in point, ever since GWI and particularly GWII.

They are still royally p*ssed off over the economic damage done to their trade relations with Iraq because of the US adventures. Their prize? Being a great NATO member! NATO isn’t feeding Turkey which is facing its own pressures. Like Germany, NATO’s interests (read the US, Poles and Balts) are increasingly divergent with key NATO states (Germany & Turkey).

Even if by some miracle Sweden & Finland are stupid enough (frightened into) to join, however unlikely, there is no sign that a major country like Germany will put its troops up for a McCain/Palin stand-off with Russia.

Whatever.

*AT seems to have a decidedly indian bent on asiatic affairs, but even keeping this in mind, it is still pretty good.

Brothers (and sisters) of internet!
Kolchak is talking corps after all

Kolchak sounds like a sock-puppet.

I had thought Venediktov resigned in February? Or was that April? Or was that July?

He’s been crying about being the vassal of the Kremlin ever since Gazprom Media bought controlling interest in EM last year.

And yet, content at EM has not changed since then and the station has not been shut down, despite dire predictions. Seems Venediktov has not resigned yet either, despite publicly threatening to quit at least 3 times since then.

BTW, I’ve noticed that those who take more reasonable comments about recent events or point out that Russia does have reasonable worries are now labeled members of the’web brigades’.

I had to look that up on sh*tipedia.

Looks like Kolchak is a copy/paste troll. Don’t feed the trolls…

To me, the runes have long since been cast – and NATO is now heading to its inevitable, slow and miserable end.

No evidence for this. Quite the opposite, in fact. There is no evidence that NATO member states have widely divergent goals either.

Really sounds like Russian government wishful thinking.

“BTW, I’ve noticed that those who take more reasonable comments about recent events or point out that Russia does have reasonable worries are now labeled members of the’web brigades’.”

Isn’t that most people?

“Fact is that Saakashvili, almost certainly encouraged and assisted by the Cheney element in the US administration, tried to pull off a quick victory…”

Robert Harneis,

That ‘almost’ word bothers me for some reason. Can you just provide some supporting evidence for your statement so we can take that ‘almost’ word out?

“Really sounds like Russian government wishful thinking.”

My runes say otherwise. Dunno about the russian government, but I’ve got some sacrifices to carry out at Stone Henge just to be sure. Now where’s my staff?

“There is no evidence that NATO member states have widely divergent goals either.”

Wait a second. Aren’t you the guy that says that any serious anti-Russia campaign (on the part of the US or whoever) would split Europe?

Wait a second. Aren’t you the guy that says that any serious anti-Russia campaign (on the part of the US or whoever) would split Europe?

Nope. I had to think what you could be referring to.

I have said that Russia has a goal of using influence (such as access of oil and gas resources) as a wedge with certain member states and the US. In other words, Germany and France are likely more cozy to Russian points of view, due to their attempts to build direct gas pipelines to Russia, etc.

But I don’t see NATO or Europe as being anything like split at this time. Russian authorities might like to imagine that they can fracture the EU or NATO, but any such prediction of NATO falling apart is premature to foolish, at best.

Maybe because the Warsaw Pact and Soviet Union came apart so quickly, it is easy for Russians to imagine NATO doing the same. However, it really isn’t feasible and discussions or disagreements between allies are not indications of deep structural flaws within the organizations.

I doubt most people realize just how interconnected NATO states are and what the repercussions would be for leaving the organization.

That ‘almost’ word bothers me for some reason. Can you just provide some supporting evidence for your statement so we can take that ‘almost’ word out?

It’s almost right there – in the article that Sean mentioned.

A U.S. Official’s Account

Matthew J. Bryza, the deputy assistant secretary of state who coordinates diplomacy in the Caucasus, said …

“During the height of all of these developments, when I was on the phone with senior Georgian officials, they sure sounded completely convinced that Russian armored vehicles had entered the Roki Tunnel, and exited the Roki Tunnel, before and during the cease-fire,” he said. “I said, under instructions, that we urge you not to engage these Russians directly.”

I would like to hear the rest of instructions as well as who issued them…

By the night of Aug. 7, he said, he spoke with Eka Tkeshelashvili, Georgia’s foreign minister, shortly before President Saakashvili issued his order to attack. “She sounded completely convinced, on a human level, of the Russian presence,” Mr. Bryza said. “ ‘Under these circumstances,’ she said, ‘We have to defend our villages.’ ”

By bombing Tshinval with Grad rockets?

Candide, do you really believe that mobile phones were ALL that US intelligence is using over there?

I have said that Russia has a goal of using influence (such as access of oil and gas resources) as a wedge with certain member states and the US.

I should add, this is just my opinion of Russian goals.

By bombing Tshinval with Grad rockets?

Some of the reading that I’ve done regarding rocket artillery versus conventional “gun” artillery would suggest that rocket artillery is better suited for offensive fire, as it is less precise and has the ability to drop many rockets on a target or region at once (although modern computer-controlled gun artillery now has this ability as well, known as Multiple Rounds Simultaneous Impact).

So, just the fact that the Georgians reportedly used BM-21 rocket systems indicates it was a likely offensive attack on Tskhinvali, rather than an attack on Russian forces in that town, etc. In other words, if you really want to hit a Russian tank in a city, gun artillery is more accurate and therefore more suitable.

Although, I really didn’t get the sense that any regulars here had much doubt about that aspect of this “war”.

“Candide, do you really believe that mobile phones were ALL that US intelligence is using over there?”

Of course not! Честное слово, за кого вы меня принимаете? They use Mind Rays, all the time. To tell the whole truth, I use them myself every time I want to mess up with your posts and make them less coherent.

“But I don’t see NATO or Europe as being anything like split at this time. Russian authorities might like to imagine that they can fracture the EU or NATO, but any such prediction of NATO falling apart is premature to foolish, at best.”

I think the issue is not of NATO or the EU (which Russia has no problems with) splitting, but rather becoming disfunctional institution(s).

I’m really not sure what benefit Germany gets out of being in NATO at this point.

US State guy: “I said, under instructions, that we urge you not to engage these Russians directly.”

And the Georgians obeyed the Americans! To use artillery, tanks, and even rifle fire is an indirect form of engagement. As everyone knows, only hand-to-hand fighting is truly direct engament. The Georgians are good wrestlers, so I’m sure that they now deeply regret that they followed America’s advice about not engaging the Russians directly.

“The Georgians are good wrestlers, so I’m sure that they now deeply regret that they followed America’s advice about not engaging the Russians directly.”

Saakashvili wanted to face Kokoity in a personal duel, a test of arete, a la Achilles.

I was actually rereading Book I of the Iliad recently, and it struck me how un-Homeric Saakashvili is.

“Fleet-footed tie-eater Saakashvili, conquerer of no one and cowerer from airplanes”

Nope, just doesn’t work. Except for the fleet-footed bit, as we have all seen on youtube.

Please, let’s give credit where credit is due. The guy is using his tie to wipe his mouth in a classical guy manner. What else are ties for, anyway? Ok, hanging too, but what else?

If fleet-footed mankiller Achilles had had a tie, would he have eaten it on Pan-Hellenic live television? I think not.

Or better yet — when Achilles was arguing with Agamemnon about the slave girl, complaining that Agamemnon was getting all the good loot and slave chicks even though Achilles was the guy with the “mankiller” title (“hello? my mother is a goddess! where is my bling?”), would it have helped him in making his case before sly Odysseus and the rest of the assembled heroes if he had — begun munching on his tie?

Seriously, the guy pick his tie and dabs at his mouth. This is caught on tape and looped repeatedly to music, that’s all.

To be sure, the Trojan war could go down in history quite differently on YouTube.

Don’t rain on the parade, Candide.

What parade, Trojan war heroes parade? The only evidence we have is from a guy who lived hundreds years later and was also blind.

“What parade, Trojan war heroes parade? The only evidence we have is from a guy who lived hundreds years later and was also blind.”

He was blind but he could see through …

Trojan propaganda! Homer’s vision was as keen as that of Divine Apollo.

Sadly, Monthy Python crew didn’t get to the Trojan war. Could be a gold mine of raunchy comedy.

Candide on September 17, 2008 8:56 am “Fact is that Saakashvili, almost certainly encouraged and assisted by the Cheney element in the US administration, tried to pull off a quick victory…”

Robert Harneis,

That ‘almost’ word bothers me for some reason. Can you just provide some supporting evidence for your statement so we can take that ‘almost’ word out?

Candide I have noticed over the months and even years that you are not dull so we both know, don’t we that in the short term there will be no evidence in the legal sense of the term. However if you read my last post and above all read the Croatia article you will understand even if you wish to disagree.

Let us not kid each other. Who was in charge in Moscow when GWB went to Olympic Games?

Don’t worry the evidence of the smelly secrets always leaks out over time. The Croatian article appeared years after the event. It is only now that a journalist has dared write that probably Youschenko’s Acne was not KGB induced but a booze induced allergy. How many years did it take for the evidence to leak out the Israel sank a US warship and tried to blame it on Egypt?

“It is only now that a journalist has dared write that probably Youschenko’s Acne was not KGB induced but a booze induced allergy.”

People have been writing this for years.

C – C People have been writing this for years.

Not as far as I know in the Anglo-Saxon MSM. If so I would be genuinely interested to know where. But that of course was not my main point.

Does someone here really believes “The beast” had been poisoned by KeGeBe?
Then he has really “open” mind

“Not as far as I know in the Anglo-Saxon MSM. If so I would be genuinely interested to know where.”

IIRC John Laughland among others mentioned it.

This Hagel letter to Rice is interesting re: US having adequate pre-warning of Georgia conflict:
She ignored it. R. Sen. Hagel has voiced his opinion as to Sarah Palin being a clown today as well. Encouraging to hear him speak up.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/steve-clemons/previously-unknown-hagel_b_127360.html

NATO is disunited. Maybe not in words, but actions certainly. The first obvious splits occurred during the 1999 war about Kosovo and the use of ground troops (amongst others) and its failure to force a solution quickly. I won’t even mention that that famous ‘war by committee’ led to serious disagreements right down to the level of targets, quite a number being blocked by other states (France in particular).

Since then the US has given up with trying to get NATO onboard for all its operations preferring a ‘coalition of the willing’.

Despite invoking article 5. after 9/11, what is the situation in Afghanistan? There is constant moaning by forces in the region that they do not have enough troops, airlift capability etc. and open complaints that NATO allies (the Euros particularly) are refusing to provide what is available.

There is plenty of available equipment and forces to provide what is needed in Europe but it is not forthcoming, why not?

Because it is a political question.

A good portion of the Euros (Germany, lesser so France & Italy) are not interested in endless war that they are committed to via NATO. They don’t say publically, but the lack of commitment of troops and weapons does. Or does a diplomatic silence or everyone signing a NATO communique mean that they all agree?

Only a couple of years ago or so, there was interest in Europe to set up and independent european planning office for NATO. The US went ballistic and the plan was dropped. Why? Could it be as a first sign that Europe was developing its own defense identity, something that is actually fundamental to the success of an EU common foreign and security policy to make up for the political developments since the 1992 Treaty of the European Union (Treaty of Amsterdam -Maastricht Treaty)??

What other evidence have we seen? As already mentioned, Turkey refused to allow the US to use its territory to invade Iraq for the second time, some senior american commanders since blaming Turkey for all the consequent troubles because of this. As the article in the Asia Times pointed out, Turkey has a lot more in common with Russia with regards to the Black Sea than with NATO/US plans – after all, the Black Sea is Turkeys back yard and it is highly unlikely that they will take to kindly to its further militarizations, especially in the current context of US plans with Iran etc.

And why ignore Germany? Are they somehow irrelevant to NATO’s future? Where is the massive German support for both of NATO’s current operations?

In the early 1990s, Germany and the US had a major love in, but fell apart mainly because the Germans main interests are European, i.e. integration whilst the US preferred (and still continues to prefer) bi-lateral agreements and deals (currently immunity for US soldiers agreed with a number or EU states and other bilateral agreements with EU states over air transport).

NATO is incompatible with the development of the EU. OTOH it provides unrivalled interconnection between military forces, but OTOH it is dividing Europe between ‘old’ and ‘new’ (the usual suspects) which is incompatible for a CFSP.

New Europe may be weary of Germany and use the US as its foil to protect itself from an encroaching EU (i.e. Germany) in combination with their voting rights within the EU institutions, but Germany is still the economic powerhouse of Europe and reasonably refuses to have its strategic interests (energy, integration of Russia closer into the EU economy) be held hostage to a new europe/russia stupid arguments.

How does NATO confrontation with Russia jive with German interests (also the frogs and the Italians), especially when it is seen as driven by the US and its proxies? Germany has remained diplomatically silent, but that does not mean it is happy with the situation.

And what of the giant elephant in the room that I have yet to see reported over the whole Georgian crisis? Something really, really obvious is missing.

The Euros should be really p*ssed off with the US over Georgia. Europe was yet again shown as incapable of dealing with a crisis on its own door step (let alone being aware of what was happening). Even its own CFSP supremo Javier Solana, NATO sleeze-bag that he is, was caught out – someone who should have known what was going on considering his connections.

Either certain NATO states knew exactly what was going on in the run up to and during the Georgia embroglio(sp?), or the alternative is that NATO states had any idea.

That’s pretty bad by any standard.

The US says they knew nothing about it and basically that Saakashvili had gone rogue. If that is true, though hard to believe, and knowing that Georgia is basically the US proxy, what does that say? That even the US can’t control its ‘own’?

Was Europe dragged in to this crisis in its own back yard by a power from a different continent just because of bad ‘handling’? Even if this is the best spin one can put on this *@#%$$* mess, it is nothing if it turns out Saakasvili was given the wink by the US.

Competence, responsibility, communications etc.? This again brings up massive questions about NATO as an organization. It was either a catastrophic intelligence failure or most members were cut out of the loop. Sure, stupidity is always a factor, but even then one has to wonder what is NATO for after all this?

As for the continued existence of NATO, it is not just political either, it is also industrial. I’ve been following the tanker competition in the US. The Euros want a slice of the pie of the previously (and still mostly) closed US military market. That’s mucho $$$. Many US politicians are loath to let in the Euros and there is a strong protectionist streak when it comes to the ‘defense’ business (or more accurately the ‘attack’ business), yet if they are all good allies, why should the Euros continue to buy big ticket equipment from the US and nothing vice-versa? This is not an insignificant issue between the US and EU. It is almost as if the US does not want Europe to have an independent & effective defense identity.

Leading back to my original comment that NATO is now on the downwards spiral, I have given some evidence that there are fundamental structural and strategic issues (political & economic) that are incompatible with NATO in its current form. NATO has lurched on from crisis of credibility to crisis of credibility and has shown itself incapable of reform.

Something has to break.

Fundamental US & European interests are increasingly divergent. If only the Euros had turned the WEU into its own defense arm rather than agreeing on the exansion of NATO…

“Who was in charge in Moscow when GWB went to Olympic Games?”

Luzhkov?

Further to support my view that there are fundamental strategic divergences between important NATO states:

Sweden to carefully review Nord Stream
http://www.neurope.eu/articles/89745.php

Sweden to carefully review Nord Stream:
Sweden needs to “take the lead” in efforts within Europe to reduce dependence on energy supplies from Russia, US ambassador to Sweden Michael M Wood wrote in an op-ed article in the Svenska Dagbladet daily on September 10. Stockholm should also “carefully consider” plans by a consortium to build an underwater Baltic Sea gas pipeline from Russia to Germany, the ambassador said. “Nord Stream bypasses the Baltic states and Poland, potential consumers, and offers a special a arrangement between Germany and Russia….

Either the US really doesn’t care what its ambassadors say (and some of them really do say some dumb things), or it is into some major stirring.

The comments can be seen at minimum as kras, but this is really fingering their German ‘allies’. Could it be in response to Germany’s less than warm uptake on the US’ view over Georgia, not to mention an outgoing administration that doesn’t give a fk?

Dude. Sweden isn’t part of NATO.

Dude, Sweden, though officially neutral, was never really neutral (during the Cold War, NATO was provided with mine maps of Sweden’s ports ‘unofficially’) and has been closely exercising with other NATO nations.

The point is that Germany and the US are members, so we have one member (US) winding up another member (Germany) by adding support to Swedish critics of Nord Stream (who are using the environmental argument against its construction). Whether Sweden is a member of NATO is irrelevant.

Your entire evidence for NATO coming apart at the seams appears to consist of … Germany working with Russia on NordStream.

Wow. That’s really damning.

No doubt, Russia and Germany are working on developing an alternative gas pipeline together which will result in closer economic ties. But that is not a case for suggesting deep divisions within NATO.

You would have a stronger case to present if you focused on Turkey, but even that is not a strong argument.

There seems to be this problem on this forum lately of people extrapolating far, far beyond the facts that exist. A great deal of Russian wishful thinking, tied to this idea that Russian’s star is ascending and that the US and NATO are deeply divided and economically devestated.

It is gross overstatement and premature. Further, as something like 60% of Russia’s GDP is tied to export of gas and oil, they better hope the world economy remains strong. Much of the current oil price is tied to speculation, meaning those prices are projected based upon increasing demand.

Changes in the US economy has ramifications across the globe and would affect oil and gas demands or consumption. Oil prices have corrected themselves before and likely will do so again, with unpleasant ramifications for the Russian economy, which is not so well developed or diverse as some might like to believe.

In other words, be careful what you wish for.

The point is that Germany and the US are members, so we have one member (US) winding up another member (Germany) by adding support to Swedish critics of Nord Stream (who are using the environmental argument against its construction).

Since when is discussion or even debate among close allies evidence of an alliance soon to fall apart?

It isn’t and never was. You are exaggerating and being wishful over something that is not going to happen.

You are very long-winded about it also, but you present almost no facts or details.

Show me the quotes from German leaders discussing how they should resign from NATO.

There seems to be this fundamental Russian flaw, likely cultural, that sees debate or discussion within government or among nations as being evidence of deep problems.

It is like saying that having an argument with your wife about her purchasing a new dress … means you are about to get a divorce. Very silly logic indeed.

“My entire evidence”?

Who is ‘extrapolating’ now???

I simply provided an example of one of many smaller pieces. NATO cannot be taken separately from other European developments.

I really do like the way that you lump everyone together you don’t agree with and ascribe to them the simplistic “Russian’s star is ascending and that the US and NATO are deeply divided and economically devestated.”

BTW, why are you doing this straw man thing (above and your comment about Sweden being in NATO)?

I guess the opposite of ‘extrapolation’ is ‘myopia’.

You think Saak is not insane? Think twice!

Stephen Sackur talks to Georgia’s president, Mikhail Saakashvili. It was really Hard Talk for Sackur
You should listen to this piece. The guy was so insane that Sackur wished him to choke with his tie I guess. It’s also clear from the interview that Saak was sent “на йух” by NATO.

I don’t know about Saak’s IQ at Yale but now his IQ is irrelevant – he is leaving in his Illusions and Dreams… far-far away

sorry for off-top

Fresh from the kitchen

Britain and the United States are headed for a diplomatic row after the U.S. let slip hopes that 4,000 more British troops will be sent to Afghanistan.

UK Defence Secretary Des Browne promptly rebuffed the claim.

Here’s more stuff I made up without any evidence about how the US and Germany have divergent strategic interests:

German-US Tensions Grow Over Baltic Pipeline
http://www.spiegel.de/international/world/0,1518,579677,00.html

The real question in this case is would a new potential democratic administration actually be any different in its outlook and its behavior?

So what does this deliberate pissing off of the Germans achieve?

Why the tantrum (rhetorical question)???

Isn’t it safe to assume that the US and the rest of the world have divergent strategic interests? The rest of the world does not wish to go down.

Dunno about the rest of the world. The US is tight with the Japanese & Australians who are part of the China containment ring.

There are now big demonstrations by young Japanese against the new stationing of the George Washington (a nuke CV (aircraft carrier that is replacing the former conventionally powered Forrestal)) and regular demonstrations by the South Korean youth against a continued US presence (the US will be shifting 5,000 odd marines soon to Guam, paid for by the South Korean government).

The most telling is western influence in the UN, in particular the UN Human Rights Body:
http://www.thenews.com.pk/daily_detail.asp?id=137201

It is difficult not to see this shift in light of Western policy since 1989, i.e. ‘humanitarian intervention/bombing’ in other countries without UN sanction. Add to this that Serbia has succeeded in getting is demand for approval of its plan to challenge the West’s illegal recognition of Kosovo at the ICJ (something that many western governments have put Serbia under very strong pressure to drop) to be discussed at the UN General Assembly (http://www.b92.net/eng/news/politics-article.php?yyyy=2008&mm=09&dd=23&nav_id=53679) before following this up (Octoberish) , and there is a shift occuring.

There is little doubt that the pendulum has started to swing back, but how far and where it will ultimately settle is impossible to say. The next US administration may well ‘bounce back’ quickly, but as always, many of these things come down to timing/windows of opportunity which the US may well have missed a number already. Wall Street & Canary Warf will have to share with one or two more financial centers in Asia for sure….