EU and Russia Cut a Deal
By Sean at 9 September, 2008, 3:23 pm
Talks between French President Nicholas Sarkozy and Dmitri Medvedev went in Russia’s favor. The Russian’s received a security guarantee that Georgia wouldn’t attack South Ossetia and Abkhazia in exchange for withdrawing its forces from Georgian territory and allowing the deployment 200 international monitors beginning Oct 1. Russia will keep nearly 8000 troops in Abkhazia and South Ossetia just in case.
This is not to say that the talks went smooth. At one point Sarkozy almost walked out. Sounds like Georgia was left in the dust. Saakashvili tried to save face by calling the agreement “a step forward.” The scorecard: Russia: win; the EU: win, South Ossetia and Abkhazia: win; Georgia: lose; and the American Cold Warrior blowhards: lose.
According to the NY Times, the hardliners in the Bush Administration have lost another internal battle. Bush, to his credit, has decided follow the EU’s lead and not to take any unilateral action against Russia. As US Defense Secretary Robert Gates said, “If we act too precipitously, we could be the ones who are isolated.” I hope that plate of realism served to Dick Cheney tasted real bitter.
Speaking of Cheney, here’s a good article from Kommersant on how the Azeris snubbed him. The Guardian’s Lionel Beehner sums up the real motives behind Cheney’s Caucasian swing: antagonizing Russia, oil, and helping the Republicans.
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It looks like “the beginning of an end” quoting Churchill for the USA. If you, guys, ever decide not to ignore me, I’d like to know your opinion on the following lecture by Dmitry Orlov:
http://www.energybulletin.net/node/23259
He speaks of obvious parallels between the collapse of the USSR and what is the US about to endure. Cheers, DM.
Yes, the end is nigh. Why things are almost half as bad as they were in the 70’s under Carter, about 1/4 as bad as during WWII, 1/8 as bad as during the Great Depression, and 0.1% as bad as during the Civil War.
I am just glad I am a God and guns freak. Bring on the apocalypse, baby.
Talking corps
“много букафф”
I hope I didn’t hurt anyone personally
And personally – I was very badly prepared, very…
But… but… but… how can this be? I thought Russia had no influence on the EU?!?!?!?
Rusia has no influence. that’s right.
But it’s gas and money have
Dima.
the main problem with Orlov’s analysis – it looks like show to earn money rather than serious thoughts.
US is a great country, but same time very unstable… and easy to collapse (знаю что смешно звучит – однако я ЗНАЮ что говорю).
Ivanov, greetings:
“Бытие определяет сознание”, как сказал Дж. Буш.
Is it safe to assume that you are a resident of the US? … and a market participant?
… if you are not convinced, here’s something shorter and easier to consume (DM desparatly trying to attract attention):
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=59H1DS6MvoQ
The Rant against Bush and Cheney continues when the real menace in the world is Putin and Medvedev. Russia deserves a real, hard spanking. Unfortunately, the Left has coyed Bush into being a limp noodle. Dictator Putin 1. Bush O.
Vladimir Putin has revived “democratic” Russia, which was about to collapse in the 90’s under the “democratic” (pro-American that is) rule of Eltsin. Now Russia bounced back, while the US is going down.
Although this is old stuff by now, perhaps some of you will be interested in checking out Dodge Billingsley’s stuff. I wrote about this guy elsewhere. He’s some sort of defense analyst & hot zones film maker with experience in Iraq, Afghanistan and especially the Caucasus area: Chechnya, Georgia, etc. He’s not a Russophile, but his reporting is less gullible and more objective than the likes of Michael Totten.
On August 14, National Review Online published a piece by Billingsley that was somewhat atypical for NRO. Here is how he ended it:
“It is astonishing that Georgia seemed intent to encircle and bombard the South Ossetian capital, full of civilians. It is as if the Georgian armed forces learned nothing from the military adventurism of a decade and a half ago.
Half a strategist would have told the Georgian planners that rather than strike at civilian centers, thus hardening Ossetian resolve, it would have been better to bypass Tskinvali and secure the only road from the border with Russia to South Ossetia — the logical ingress route for the Russian 58th Army out of North Ossetia — in case Russia responded with force. The road to the border is also ideally fit for guerilla warfare, the type the Chechens employed to stymie the Russian military in Chechnya for years. RPG and sniper teams well-placed along the route could have crippled the Russian assault before it even got started.
Apparently, U.S. military training and assistance to Georgia did not take into account the stigma the Georgian military had earned vis-à-vis Abkhazia and South Ossetia, instead concentrating on hardware and unit tactics. We may have forgotten Georgia’s past, and we may associate Georgia with the Rose Revolution, but local memory is deeper.”
http://article.nationalreview.com/?q=MTEyZTIxYzVjZWM1YTY4MGEzYjg2ZDlhNzJmOGQ3NTg=#more
Last February, at BUY, Dodge Billingsley gave a talk about Georgia, Abkhazia and NATO. You can watch it on video–about 45 minutes long. Basically, it’s a backgrounder on the last 18 years of Georgia and Abkhazia that sometimes touches upon other areas of the Caucasus. I found it interesting. At least back then he didn’t think that it was a good idea for NATO to have Georgia as a member. Here is the link for the talk (the first guy in the video is not Billingsley, is the guy introducing him):
http://fora.tv/2008/02/06/Abkhazia_Untold_War_Story
For a short 1997 video segment in which Shamil Basayev talks to Billingsley about his experience in Abkhazia:
http://www.combatfilms.com/cfrtv_archive_0009.asp
And here is an online comment by Billingsley replying to a commentator about the Georgian-Abkhazian conflict of 92-93:
“Don’t believe everything you read–even in Wikipedia. If you reread the article ask yourself why there is no mention of Georgian war crimes, of which there were many (plenty of Georgian volunteers will tell you what they did in Abkhazia). The Wiki article is not a balanced view of the conflict at all and is obviously written from the pro-Georgian perspective.
Good historical accounts of conflict will usually strive to include or incorporate both sides’ position, this doesn’t even attempt to do so.
I have traveled all over Abkhazia and spoke to Georgian, Chechen, Ossetian, Cherkess, Russian, Ukrianian, Armenian and Abkhaz participants about what happened and the Wiki article is a joke. It reminds me of the propaganda that the Croatians were churning out via a PR firm in Washington DC, that would, and did, make the world believe that they were the poor little innocent Croatians being brutalized by the devilish Serbs. Did the Serbs do bad things, of course the did. But did the Croats as well? You better believe it, although the spin wouldn’t tell you so.
It is war, don’t be so gullible.
Finally, losing one life is too many but to say that Abkhazia is “one of the worst genocides of the 20th century” is an insult to the real genocides of that time, and should also further indicate the extreme bias of the article you just read.
Dodge | 12.17.07 – 10:41 am | #”
“Half a strategist would have told the Georgian planners that rather than strike at civilian centers, thus hardening Ossetian resolve, it would have been better to bypass Tskinvali and secure the only road from the border with Russia to South Ossetia”
Georgians shell city; population flees north through pass; Georgians seal pass; ethnic cleansing complete.
US is a great country, but same time very unstable… and easy to collapse
People have been saying this since, ooh, about 1776. One thing the US is, is incredibly durable and adept at surviving crises. Civil war, two world wars, great depression, Watergate, the Civil Rights era, Vietnam, and Mike Averko: the US has survived them all, and will continue to survive. The reason for this is that its foundations are rock steady, even if the edifice itself doesn’t seem too sturdy at times.
If Russia thinks its going to outlast the US, they should wait more than a decade before getting too cocky.
“Civil war, two world wars, great depression, Watergate, the Civil Rights era, Vietnam, and Mike Averko: the US has survived them all”
Operation Kick Ass 2008 isn’t over yet.
Kolya.
I think Georgians followed the advice of other half of “strategists”
But most likely they followed the advice of The Greatest Strategist of The Modern World Saakashvili. Who – in turn – followed the advice of the voices in his head
PS. Also don’t forget about the whole Russian soldiers, officers and planners. I think they figured out georgian strategy long in advance
Negative, Dima!
I’m not resident of the US neither resident in the US (aka “our man in Washington”)
I’m not a market “participant” either.
Is this the market?
The full story about thw power of supid word over free market
But this is not what I mean “unstable”. There is more fundamental problem.
“Unfortunately, the Left has coyed Bush into being a limp noodle”
Wait…The American Left?!?
does not compute
excuse me while head explodes…
Wait…The American Left?!?
does not compute
excuse me while head explodes…
Don’t try and figure it out daut. Kolchak is probably still sore about his execution in 1920. And given the good Admiral’s politics, the only people right of him are probably Nicholas the Bloody and Hitler.
I forget where the debate about Russia’s foreign influence was, but here is an example of how it might larger than we think.
Israel tells businessmen to stop visiting Georgia
The Associated Press
JERUSALEM – Israeli defense officials say the government has told all businessmen involved in military sales to Georgia to immediately cease visits to the former Soviet republic.
The officials say the directive was decided upon this week because Israel is concerned about damage to its relations with Russia. Israel had decided to stop most weapons sales to Georgia even before the Russia-Georgia war last month.
One of Israel’s primary concerns is that Russia could sell Iran advanced weapons, including anti-aircraft missiles.
The officials spoke on condition of anonymity because the directive had not been made public.
Israel has sold Georgia drones and other technologies, and Israelis trained Georgian units in urban warfare and counterterrorism tactics.
“it might larger than we think.”
“We” = “Ger”
http://civil.ge/eng/article.php?id=19460
Tim don’t forget Kim Zigfeld, the US is still weathering its presence as well.
And what was I saying earlier about the ammorality of business achieving what the moral posturing of politicians could not:
After further falls on Friday, the Russian stock market has plunged more than 30% since the country’s invasion of Georgia last month.
Investor confidence has been hit hard by the conflict.
Some international banks estimating that between up to $20bn (£11bn)in foreign capital has been pulled out of Russia in the last month alone.
Since the invasion the value of the rouble has slumped, reportedly leading to the central bank stepping in.
So whereas Russia may have got away with a slap on the wrist from Europe for its invasion, Moscow is being punished much more directly by international investors.
Analysts in Moscow say Russia is now seen as a risky place to invest and it will be a long time before confidence returns.
“it might larger than we think.”
“We” = “Ger”
Bollocks!:-)
I’m like The last survivors in ”From Dusk Till Dawn”, fighting a hopeless tide of Russian propoganda!
“And what was I saying earlier about the ammorality of business achieving what the moral posturing of politicians could not:”
This kind of presupposes that Russia did something im/amoral, which it didn’t.
This kind of presupposes that Russia did something im/amoral, which it didn’t.
It presupposes no such thing to point out that European politicians have been exercising moral posturing over the issue.
And immoral and ammoral are not interchangeable terms.
“It presupposes no such thing to point out that European politicians have been exercising moral posturing over the issue.”
Sure they have — I’m just objecting mildly to the idea that the markets are somehow punishing Russia, because that has the idea of moral iniquity and come-uppance for it lurking in the background. The markets are (I guess) reacting to perceived instability.
“And immoral and ammoral are not interchangeable terms.”
I know. Hence the slash.
Sure they have — I’m just objecting mildly to the idea that the markets are somehow punishing Russia, because that has the idea of moral iniquity and come-uppance for it lurking in the background.
The markets are punishing Russia (in the economic sense of the term), and there is an element of come-uppance, although not especially related to the war with Georgia. Forced takeover of the Sakhalin II project, threats against TNK-BP over Kovytka, threats against Mechel, rigged auctions of Yukos assets, ever-changing retrospectively applied tax laws, selective application of the law, all from a government backed by a population who thought that there was no downside to such behaviour. Thanks to all this, stuff is going to get more expensive for the ordinary Russian, who might like to factor this in next time they give 86% approvals to their leadership.
As for the moral element, I am sure I have clearly stated that markets are ammoral.
Ah, I thought you were refering to Georgia.
Ah, I thought you were refering to Georgia.
I think the markets were worried about the things I said, and more. I think the war with Georgia confirmed that more is to be expected as Russia is buoyed by the confidence in beating Georgia and relations with the west deteriorate. It was confirmation that the Russia which was giving the foreign businesses the hard time is the Russia which is here to stay, and not just some flash in the pan.
Oh shit, we can all shut up now. The definitive analysis has been made:
Had Russia not recognized South Ossetian and Abkhaz independence, the anti-Saakashvili/not so Russia unfriendly sentiment among Georgians would have a better chance at gaining strength. It can take awhile for a population to realize when their government has misled them. A point relating to the August 7 Georgian government strike into South Ossetia and Saakashvili’s overly negative attitude towards Russia.
http://www.americanchronicle.com/articles/72954
“Kolchak is probably still sore about his execution in 1920.”
I thought maybe he was just grouchy from being up all night chasing vampire serial killers/
The markets are punishing Russia (in the economic sense of the term), and there is an element of come-uppance, although not especially related to the war with Georgia.
Yes, I was just going to point out in this matter … the RBC composite index has been sliding since May. So continued losses do not seem to be solely about Georgia, but general reaction to the global economy and Russian policies.
http://stock.rbc.ru/demo/rbc.0/daily/COMPIND.eng.shtml?show=6M
“Kolchak is probably still sore about his execution in 1920.”
I thought Kolchak was cancelled in the 1970s?
I understand you can still watch the reruns online, via Netflix, however.
For the young-uns … Kolchak, the Night Stalker was the X-files, waay before there ever was “The X-Files”.
The show was much more interesting than 90210. Although, it did have much less of a bimbo-factor.
Yes, I was just going to point out in this matter … the RBC composite index has been sliding since May.
To be fair though, my own stocks which are invested in Eastern Europe (excl. Russia), India, US, and UK show similar graphs for the past 6 months.
I guess part of the decline is down to Russia feeling what the rest of the world is feeling.
I guess part of the decline is down to Russia feeling what the rest of the world is feeling.
Yeah, no doubt – I tried to reference that.
I was going to chime in also regarding a rather positive outlook by most foreign retail and real estate developers regarding Russia. ICSC has a rather glowing opinion of the Russian market (I suspect this is a topic that fellow New Englander Timothy Post would be much better prepared to address).