Sep
6
US “Private Contractors” in Georgia
September 6, 2008 | 227 Comments
The Financial Times is reporting that two US military contractors, MPRI and American Systems, provided combat training to 80 Georgian commandos a few months before Georgia’s attack on South Ossetia. However, “here is no evidence” FT states, “that the contractors or the Pentagon, which hired them, knew that the commandos they were training were likely be used in the assault on South Ossetia.” According to one unnamed US military official, the training program began in 2006 after Georgia offered to send commandos to Afghanistan. Nevertheless, the revelation will give more weight to Putin assertion on CNN of US involvement in orchestrating the war.
This isn’t the first time MPRI trained commandos have used their skills in other matters. According to the FT,
MPRI was hired by the Pentagon in 1995 to train the Croatian military prior to their invasion of the ethnically-Serbian Krajina region, which led to the displacement of 200,000 refugees and was one of the worst incidents of ethnic cleansing in the Balkan wars. MPRI denies any wrongdoing.
I would imagine that the Georgians used some of its training to a similar effect in South Ossetia.
I would also like to stress the connection between government, military, and capital in all of this. MPRI and American Systems were contracted out “to help supplement its own trainers because of a lack of manpower.” It is clear all things can be outsourced. Even the nation state’s monopoly on violence is for sale.
Moscow has claimed that American mercenaries were fighting with the Georgians, though no credible evidence has been found of direct involvement. Apparently MPRI and American Systems trainers did arrive in Georgia on August 3, but as one former contractor told FT, “They would have only seen the inside of a hotel room.” FT inquires to both companies have remained lacking specific details.
MPRI and American Systems aren’t the first mercenary corporations to arrive in the region. American mercenaries have been in Georgia and the Caspin Sea region since 2003. In his Blackwater: The Rise of the World’s Most Powerful Mercenary Army, Jeremy Scahill writes that the American government launched a project called “Caspian Guard” in Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan. A similar plan was launched in Georgia which included $135 million to “create a network of commando and special operation forces that would protect the lucrative oil and gas exploration being plotted out by transnational oil corporations.”
In early 2003, Cubic, a private Washington military contractor, received a three year, $15 million contract, writes Scahill quoting the Guardian, “to equip and advise the former Soviet republic’s crumbling military, embellishing an eastward expansion that has enraged Moscow.” The impetus at the time was the supposed presence of “Chechen terrorists.” The real reason wasn’t lost on a Georgian security official who said, “the Cubic team would also improve protection of the pipeline that will take Caspian oil from Baku to Turkey through Georgia. Georgia has already expressed its gratitude by agreeing to send 500 troops to Iraq.”
The most notorious and lucrative American mercenary outfit, Blackwater, entered the Caspian region in early 2004. Their focus was to form “a SEAL team for Azerbaijan” to patrol oil interests, joining a U.S. corporate smorgasbord which included Bechtel, Halliburton, Chevron-Texaco, Unocal, and ExxonMoboil.
Given all of this, is it too much to at most suggest or in the least ask questions of direct American involvement in this war? Maybe Putin isn’t crazy after all.
It is no surprise that US Vice President stopped in both Azerbaijan and Georgia this week. He had a special present for Saakashvili. A guarantee of $1 billion from American taxpayers. Was this aid or really a payment? I only wonder how much of this money will be whisked away into Saakashvili and his people private coffers.
What a well oiled scam. The American corporate-political-military establishment has ensured its position in Georgia as protector and partner. Saakashvili got fat paper stack for playing the victim. And once again the American taxpayer didn’t even get a reach around.
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227 Comments so far
Exactly who, in the American government decides to give (away) one billion dollars at the drop of a hat, to Georgia? The great “Decider”-in-Chief? I doubt it. The housing market in America is collapsing, as we speak, and we are throwing money into the wind. Putin was certain of his facts when he said their were American troops involved. Much like the Roman Empire, we are overextended overseas as Rome goes into foreclosure.
There used to be a good webiste (mprisucks.com) that used to detail MPRI’s nefarious dealings, but it disappeared from the web…
…but thanks to the wonder of the world wide web (in this case the Internet Archive’s ‘Way back Machine), you can find some of it cached…
http://web.archive.org/web/*/http://www.mprisucks.com
And while we are there, by not dyncorp-sucks?
http://web.archive.org/web/*/http://www.dyncorp-sucks.com
Hallelujah! Praise the Lord and pass the bullets!
Coming to think of it, they must be pretty darn good at business if they can make money from making privates contract….
First of all, I\’d like to say that I\’m offended by your, guys, constant mentioning Vladimir Putin as the chief decision-maker in Russia. I\’m the chief, remember?
Next, about the promise to give (away) 1 billion dollars to Georgia. This is merely a \”promise\” to give this money over the period of 5 years. Sounds nice, but lest we forget that they\’ve done it to us in the 90\’s, to the former Serbia-Montenegro and other country. In the end a new government may simply cut down the payment all together as it happened many times before. Even if the money did arrive (some of it anyway), it was normally spent on the salaries of various American advisors working on \”our case\” and on buying American supplies. If I were the Gergian president (and thanks God, I\’m not!), I wouldn\’t put too much hope in that money. Cheers!
You really are a Russian KGB stooge. The US has been sending military advisors to Georgia in part to combat terrorism. Chechens used the mountainous border as a sanctuary. With the help of the US advisors, Georgian soldiers have been able to root out the Chechens.
As far as Putin’s imaginary American soldier, here is the truth about Michael Lee White.
American accused by Russia says he’s never been to Georgia
From the Associated Press
From the Associated Press
September 4, 2008
GUANGZHOU, CHINA — Russian officials have said Michael Lee White was a U.S. agent involved in the recent fighting between their troops and Georgia. They claim to have found the Army veteran’s passport in Georgia’s breakaway province of South Ossetia.
But in his cramped teacher’s apartment at a business college in southern China, the American said Wednesday that he’d never been to Georgia.
When the five-day war was raging last month, White said, he was in his hometown of Austin, Texas, caring for his sick father.
The CIA denied that White was working for it.
White thinks the passport the Russians have is one he lost during a flight from Moscow to New York in October 2005. White said he reported his lost passport and was given a new one the same year.
“It still seems bizarre that they would make accusations like that with so little evidence,” said White, a soft-spoken English teacher.
Russian officials have suggested that Americans directly supported Georgia’s Aug. 7 assault on South Ossetia, which is backed by Russia.
Russian Col. Gen. Anatoly Nogovitsyn, showed reporters a copy of what he said was White’s passport Aug. 28.
He said it was found in a basement among items that belonged to retreating Georgian soldiers
Their focus was to form “a SEAL team for Azerbaijan” to patrol oil interests, joining a U.S. corporate smorgasbord which included Bechtel, Halliburton, Chevron-Texaco, Unocal, and ExxonMoboil.
Chevron-Texaco, Unocal, and ExxonMobil have no operations in Azerbaijan.
Nevertheless, the revelation will give more weight to Putin assertion on CNN of US involvement in orchestrating the war.
Only amongst the dimwitted. As you point out yourself, the US have had military personnel in Georgia since 2003. This is about as much a revelation as the relief of Mafeking.
Tim.
As I understood Sean’s post is based on FT “expertise”
Also Exxon was there in 2004.
“The most notorious and lucrative American mercenary outfit, Blackwater, entered the Caspian region in early 2004. “
It’s not about “being” – it’s about doing.
Saak would never entered in such “adventure” without the support and approval from US. It’s simply impossible for Georgian army.
I wonder what orders did Russian spetsnaz get in case of engagement with foreign “instructors”? Catching them or avoiding them?
“I wonder what orders did Russian spetsnaz get in case of engagement with foreign “instructors”? Catching them or avoiding them?”
May I suggest stripping them naked, tying their hands and taping their butt cheeks together? Oh, and shown on tv of course??? Or maybe not. The contractors have probably already done such things (or been subject to such) at school or college already.
Maybe the best strategy would be to break them through their stomachs. Making them eat babushka prepared (i.e. everything cooked in an inch of oil) food and soaked with vodka (from Uzbekistan)?
Just heard, Fanny Mae & Freddie Mac (didn’t he just die?) have been nationalized. So much for the US having turned the corner.
Maybe the best strategy would be to break them through their stomachs. Making them eat babushka prepared (i.e. everything cooked in an inch of oil) food and soaked with vodka (from Uzbekistan)?
Actually, that doesn’t sound too bad. Maybe some hard-boiled eggs, some morkovcha koreyska, slices of sausage or smoked meat. I’m there!
Say, where did that discussion about Russia only being a regional power of limited influence end up?
I happen to notice that Russia and Venezuela are having joint military exercises in the Caribbean in November.
Want to bet if Cuba gets banged up by Hurricane Ike that Russia provides humanitarian aid delivered by the Russian navy? Medvedev has already hinted at the possibility.
Hey, maybe they’ll sneak in some nukes (snukes?) while they’re at it. It’ll be just like the good old days!
But it might be new bad days ahead as well
I would not make too much out of Russia being cozy with Venezuela. Venezuela is a deeply divided society and even if most Venezuelans are genuinely anti-American, Russians are not particularly popular. Moreover, despite the infusion of money and weapons the Venezuelan Army is a real joke. For example, a couple of months ago Chavez had a large (for Venezuela) military parade. There were so many comedic mishaps that people are still joking about it. It’s different right next to them. The effectiveness, professionalism and morale of the Colombian Army is much higher.
But let’s see the reaction of Washington guys on Russian navy over there (not as close as Georgia to Russia but anyway).
If they ignore this and McCain doesn’t mention it in his speeches – then Putin paranoia would be confirmed.
But so far Cheney – the Republican executive – is using most of the recent war for propaganda.
Well, I don’t think the US can hold on to its power around the globe any more. If they engaged us in Georgia, we can engage them in Latin America (Cuba, Venezuela), and they cannot do anything about it. If they push us harder, we’ll start giving a slack to Iran (weapons, etc).
The US has made a fatal mistake with Iran, – all those threats didn’t result in any actions, for the whole world to see that the US has no guts and resources.
??? Like Russia’s oil, the perceived threat is much more useful than the action (ratio 5% effort, 95% effect). Yes, the US stretched and can still bring a ‘world of pain’ at short notice, but its regular adventures has cost it trust, something the next US President will have to put a lot of effort and time in repairing.
LatAm is no longer really in the US sphere of influence (as it used to mean) and has diversified – i.e. made strong deals with other states and entities such as the EU. That’s not to say that they are particularly united (MERCUSOR anyone?) and won’t get on with the US, but they are more likely to resist pressure/bribes.
The latter case is the ‘news’ (which didn’t have a particularly high profile) that Panama will no longer allow US troops to remain on its soil (I think in at least base/stationing terms). Why is this significant? The Panama Canal and the fear that the Chinese could ‘take control’ of it via commercial means to the detriment of the US (as some of the more paranoid would have us believe). A minor (not even?) leaguer Lil’ old Panama saying ‘no thanks’ to the US.
What of Ecuador telling the US to quit the Manta airbase which has nice long runways (for tankers and stuff) and is very logistically important for Columbia’s anti-narcotic policy.
They’re being booted out of Manas in Kyrgyz Republic too… Not to mention that Russia’s offer of a land bridge requires the cooperation of uzbeks too..
These ‘little’ states in themselves can be ridiculed (i.e. Venezuela), but it does show a new trend of ‘thanks, but no thanks’ – i.e. a shift in the world’s power structures.
The US certainly could do something, but any sizable action could have unpredictable ripple effects in these volatile times, something we have seen with the Georgia adventure.
Still, competitors may be one problem, but allies (such as Pakistan) must figure even more closely in the US’ mind. Bombing Iran will be one thing, whoever does it, but if nuke armed Pakistan collapses, I’m certainly not placing any bets.
The Russians only need to play a cool hand and play it slow into the US election. It’s not as if they have to do much to get squeals from the paranoid about Russia cliques. What happens after the election is the $64,000 question.
Just heard the Chinese have just announced another manned mission (into space that is) by the end of the month. Cue the China paranoia!
Oooh, just spotted this:
Bad French prolongs Russia-Georgia conflict:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/russia/2700177/Bad-French-prolongs-Russia-Georgia-conflict.html
“…One reason for the continuation of the conflict now appears to be a passage in the Russian translation of the agreement that speaks of security “for” South Ossetia and Abkhazia. The English version speaks of security “in” the two areas.
The difference is crucial, because Russia continues to keep its tanks and armed troops “in” Georgian territory. The international community, in turn, wants security “for” South Ossetia and Abkhazia without the Russian army staying in Georgia.
Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov agreed that the ceasefire wording made his country sound like an aggressor. He said the Georgian interpretation “contains a whole range of distortions” including replacement of the preposition “for” with “in”…”
I agree with you on that: the world is changing.
What concerns the situation with the US, it reminds me so much the USSR of the late 80s. It would be even more so if Obama elected – he is such a Gorbachev! I was at the University at that time and spent much time partying (you know), I wish I spent more time following political developments in the USSR, it would have helped me a great deal now what’s going on in the USA and what’s going to happen now in the biggest debt collector of the world.
FM: Armenia, Turkey ready to normalize ties:
http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2008-09/08/content_9843390.htm
Not even Michael Knight would have expect that (if it actually happens).
It might have happened sooner or later but in the context of the Georgia excitement, one wonders. By implication, good relations with Armenia will be seen as bad news by Azerbaidjan.
Is anyone else watching the Murray-Nadal match?
Murray in the final with Federer!
I suppose if Murray wins the final, he will make a magical transformation from Scottish to British…LOL!
But let’s see the reaction of Washington guys on Russian navy over there (not as close as Georgia to Russia but anyway).
I actually think the US wouldn\’t get too concerned about the Russian navy in the Caribbean. It isn\’t as if the Russian navy is anything like what the USSR navy was, in either size or capability. Also, it isn\’t provocative, in the sense there is no US military action in the Caribbean, to which Russia was responding, etc.
By the way, read an interesting editorial article in the Boston Herald that cited the 1936 Montreux Convention that prevented the US from bringing hospital ships (which are larger than ships that were used) into the Black Sea … which is why Coast Guard and smaller US Navy ships were used. It was also noted that Russia has violated the Montreux Convention in the past.
Also Exxon was there in 2004.
Yeah, so everyone keeps saying. But other than a 17% share in the Kashagan project, Exxon doesn’t have operations in the Caspian.
The US has made a fatal mistake with Iran, – all those threats didn’t result in any actions, for the whole world to see that the US has no guts and resources.
Actually, the US is distancing itself from Iran. Of all the “concerned countries”, the US is the least threatened by Iran. Europe and Russia will be far more threatened by a nuclear Iran than will the US. If the US can persuade Israel to not attack Iran, then the problem really isn’t a US one (which is pretty much the angle Bush took after the intelligence report which said Iran wasn’t a threat). If the US backs away and Russia continues to support Iran, Russia could find itself at odds with China. China relies on the US to keep the Straits of Hormuz open and the Gulf oil flowing: US and Chinese interests on Iran are far more aligned than is made out.
“Want to bet if Cuba gets banged up by Hurricane Ike that Russia provides humanitarian aid delivered by the Russian navy?”
Russia is providing humanitarian aid to Cuba.
Russia is providing humanitarian aid to Cuba.
I suppose they had to start repairing the relations sometime. Russia isn’t held in exactly high regard by Cubans, having bailed on them in the great communist project, taking their subsidies with them.
“Russia isn’t held in exactly high regard by Cubans, having bailed on them in the great communist project, taking their subsidies with them.”
Yep. That’s what people in Cuba tell me. They were really pissed off when Russia closed Lourdes (why? did this bring in money to the Island of Freedom (TM) ?), though I understand things have changed in the past couple of years.
“American accused by Russia says he’s never been to Georgia”
Doesn’t mean his passport wasn’t there.
“Say, where did that discussion about Russia only being a regional power of limited influence end up?”
It ended up with you winning.
“The impetus at the time was the supposed presence of “Chechen terrorists.””
How is this presence “supposed”? They were hanging out in Pankisi for years.
“to Putin assertion on CNN of US involvement in orchestrating the war.”
Wait a second — VVP didn’t assert anything. He speculated.
Let’s see WHO LET THE DOGS OUT (and who is really crazy)
He also said that “the return of our territories” and “the peaceful reunification of Georgia” were major goals.
The rest of report from Palata # 6
http://civil.ge/eng/article.php?id=19425
Enjoy
That’s really, really pathetic.
The question is whether Saak is realy crazy (in medical terms) or he is saying too much (means he is fool).
I don’t think he’s crazy. Probably self-deluded, but not crazy.
What is the difference between crazy and self-deluded?
Maybe it is because you guys are on the other side of the Atlantic, but Georgia-Russia is easily one of the top 10 news items here. It is getting quite a bit more press and commentary than Iraq, Iran, and any other number of foreign policy issues in the US.
So, I’m wondering why you would think Saakashvili is deluded – he’s right. Georgia vs. Russia, and what most Americans are perceiving as an aggressive, anti-US, anti-NATO, anti-EU Russia are pretty big topics over here for the past month. The way it is playing is pretty much exactly as he has described.
For example, in Yahoo’s top rated news articles for most viewed/most emailed are news articles about Russia dispatching a battleship to participate in war games with Venezuela – within that article is a reference to aggressive Russian tactics against Georgia. Also, among top articles is commentary by US and EU officials that Russia seeks to corner the oil and gas market.
Normally this only happens with Putin takes off his shirt.
So maybe you guys just don’t know how this is playing here. Sean wrote an item about “Russia barely being mentioned” by US candidates, but the fact remains the Georgia-Russia conflict was mentioned, is being discussed, where Russia has NOT been mentioned by political candidates (except in relatively positive terms) for almost 20 years.
Given commentary by Cheney regarding investors and oil-pipeline security in the Caucasus region, I fully expect that if a Republican wins the US presidency (which I think it going to happen) Dmitri O. Rogozin’s prediction of a US base in Georgia is accurate.
So, Shedd, do you agree with Saak that
??
Strange but you don’t seems to me as crazy deluded as Mishiko and his friends in DC.
PS. I do know what’s going on both sides of Atlantica (as I’m in the middle of it)
Turkish President: U.S. Must Share Power after Georgia Crisis
Civil Georgia, Tbilisi / 18 Aug.’08 / 12:38
Turkish President, Abdullah Gül, said in an interview with the Guardian
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2008/aug/16/turkey.usforeignpolicy
the conflict in Georgia had showed the United States could no longer shape global politics on its own and should begin sharing power with other countries.
“I don’t think you can control all the world from one centre,” he told the Guardian. “There are big nations. There are huge populations. There is unbelievable economic development in some parts of the world. So what we have to do is, instead of unilateral actions, act all together, make common decisions and have consultations with the world. A new world order, if I can say it, should emerge.”
I think both the Russians and US and Georgia had their primary actions and story-lines prepared in advance. You think it was a coincidence that Russian troops had excercises in the region and never withdrew?
I think the only surprise for the US was how far into Georgia Russia was willing to push in response.
As for bribing journalists and politicians – I would say that there are Russian-friendly journalists and politicians, just as their are US-friendly journaliss and politicians. Stories are biased on both sides. Money or favors being exchanged (with journalists, these favors are often just access and a source of information) does not surprise me even in the slightest. Christ, politicians in Russia and the US were both found to be taking money from Saddam Hussein in that oil for money scheme – what makes you think either side is above buying influence now? I doubt you would object to this accusation if it were made against the US, why would it surprise you that Russia might butter some palms?
Perhaps I am too cynical and judge journalists and politicians too harshly. However, I doubt it.
In a broad sense, both the US and Russia are buying influence in the EU through larger actions, such as Nordstream or NATO military support. You think it is a coincidence that Merkel has been the softest EU opinion towards Russia through this conflict? Perhaps you should remove those rose-colored glasses (perhaps a poor choice of idioms in this case).
I think it is just part of Russian-rhetoric that you guys are hearing and discussing over there daily, to paint Saakashvili as some crazy war-monger. You should realize he simply is not portrayed that way here. Russia seems to be counting on some Russia-friendly politician waiting in the wings in Georgia to take his place. However, even Shevardnadze appears to support inclusion of South Ossetia and Abkhazia back into Georgia, and Georgia joining NATO. So I think Russia is going to have to be prepared for unpleasant things like a US/NATO base in Georgia, perhaps longer-term naval presence in the Black Sea, and other nasty things. Demonizing Saakashvili isn’t going to change that – just makes it easier for the Russian public to support future military actions against Georgia.
In that sense, it isn’t much different than the US portrayal of Saddam Hussein and Iraq prior to this recent war, which was very different than the Russian imagery of that nation and leader. Ditto NATO bombing as regards Kosovo.
Each side is being sold a different image. This should make you suspicious as to sources of such imagery. You’re a suspicious guy ivanov, just direct some of that towards your own government as well, instead of just buying everything they are selling.
For the record, I think Saakashvili is a hot-head who acted rashly and the Georgian Army, despite US training, was not well prepared. However, the broader idea of Georgia retaining South Ossetia and Abkhazia seems to have wide support among Georgians, based on everything I have read. That doesn’t mean they support such military actions – any sensible person would wish for a peaceful resolution.
And yes, I think many of the Russian accusations regarding US intentions in the region or even using the conflict to influence public opinions leading up to the US elections has some merit. Many of the Russian government comments lead me to believe they have an ear into what US diplomats are whispering to Georgia – the commentary often sound like Russian officials even hint at this, perhaps even so that the US might recognize Georgia can not be fully trusted.
For that matter, I also think it is clear that Russia seeks to maintain maximum influence over oil and gas pipelines leading from the Caspian Basin to Europe. It is a wise strategy to do so – there is a reason for cartels such as OPEC.
For some reason, I am reminded of “There Will be Blood” … Drainage! If you have a milkshake, and I have a milkshake ..
PS. I do know what’s going on both sides of Atlantica (as I’m in the middle of it)
Iceland?
PS ~ latest headline proving the totalitarian Putin-regime (the puppet-like Medvedev doesn’t count):
“Russia in legal bid to ban “extremist” U.S. cartoon”
What cartoon could they possibly be discussing? Some lunatic fringe cartoon with some popularity on the internet, perhaps?
Why no – it’s South Park – one of Katja’s absolutely favorite shows here in the US (along with “The Office” and “30 Rock”)!
So, another reason for her to value life here in the US. She can buy Borjomi here and watch South Park.
Shedd.
Could you give us the list of bribed by Russians politicians throughout the world?
Also by your own logic your opinion is not very valid as you see everything from that side of the ocean
I’m not saying that by your logic it was Russia that planed NATO bases in Georgia
))
Could you give us the list of bribed by Russians politicians throughout the world?
You can start with Gerhard Schroeder.
Or does giving him a highly-paid job as the head of the Nord Stream consortium a week after he signed Germany up to the project in his last days in office not count as bribery?
“What cartoon could they possibly be discussing? Some lunatic fringe cartoon with some popularity on the internet, perhaps?
Why no – it’s South Park – one of Katja’s absolutely favorite shows here in the US (along with “The Office” and “30 Rock”)!”
I imagine it would look extremist if you saw it for the first time and took it out of context, or if (like most people) you didn’t find that kind of thing funny.
This honestly doesn’t bug me. You can show people (albeit little cartoon people) getting hacked into bloody bits, but you can’t show porn. OK.
“Or does giving him a highly-paid job as the head of the Nord Stream consortium a week after he signed Germany up to the project in his last days in office not count as bribery?”
Does it?
You can start with Gerhard Schroeder.
He’s certainly the first one that pops into my head.
How does retired politician Gerhard is related to the planned “aggression”?
I haven’t heard that Merkel was opposed to the gas pipeline. So may be this is fair reward for the good job done for Germany?
What about billion bucks for Georgia? Ah! I know, I know. These are “incentives”…
PS. I don’t like S.Park. And you can not argue that everything is done in “civilized” manner. The court will decide whether Spark is promote violence etc.
PS. Shedd, ask Katya about why it’s late to drink Borjomi
And I don’t understand why Georgians are complaining.
They’ve been begging for money for decades – and now thank to “Russian plan” the money pouring over Georgia.
What the bastards!
”“Say, where did that discussion about Russia only being a regional power of limited influence end up?”
It ended up with you winning.”
It didnt actually. As I recall a number of tinpot tyrant regimes that Putin has flashed the cash to or flogged weapons to were named, to which came the reasonable response that those were not major powers or worth talking about. Places like Uzbekistan, which has a lower GDP than County Tipperary, and Cuba. Yeah guys, major powers there. Like I said before Russia won a load of compensation money and is flashing the cash in the pub, but very few of the drinkers are listening, and only raise their head in acknowledgement when Russia throws a punch, like it did to Georgia. Compo doesnt last forever guys.
”Why no – it’s South Park – one of Katja’s absolutely favorite shows here in the US (along with “The Office” and “30 Rock”)!”
Good grief. Why are they banning that? Its very popular with Russians here too, along with Fr Ted and Alan Partridge (which contains the famous scene where he explained to his Ukrainian mail-order bride how to prepare his English Breakfast – ”you see Lana, dont put the eggs right beside the beans. The sausages should act as a kind of breakwater between the two of those”)
Anyway, bummer for Russian SP fans in Russia, but I dunno is it all that popular there – her indoors says it doesnt translate that well and is much funnier in English. Its certainly not funny in Irish language.
How does retired politician Gerhard is related to the planned “aggression”?
He’s already spoken out in defence of Russia’s actions, which is in line with his job description I suppose.
Does it?
It depends on whether he was offered this position before he signed the deal and left office. I wouldn’t want to be the one who picks up the cudgels in his defence.
But he don’t speak as politician, Tim.
The rest is just freedom of speech.
Otherwise we have to make very terrible conclusion. The whole Nordstream project was the part of Russian plan to invade Georgia and screw up US elections. But if Russia is so good – in planning – that the world is doomed. Поздно пить боржоми!
“As I recall a number of tinpot tyrant regimes that Putin has flashed the cash to or flogged weapons to were named, to which came the reasonable response that those were not major powers or worth talking about.”
Like Germany and China and France.
BTW Russia seems to be influencing the EU pretty well over this Georgia thing. Look like they’re finally getting those international observors they’ve been asking for for years.
“It depends on whether he was offered this position before he signed the deal and left office.”
Right, which we don’t know. In the absence of evidence, this is slander.
But if Russia is so good – in planning – that the world is doomed.
Heh! Russia was always good at planning, it was the execution they always struggled with.
“Why are they banning that?:
They’re not. The subject has been raised; that’s all.
Most likely he was. So what?
But he did a good job for Germany. And continues to do good job. I guess this was his conditions to sign the deal.
I would suspect something wrong if Schroeder got the chair in project about pipeline from Russia to Britain
Oh! About Britain. I guess Blair’s job is just a reword for his excellent job as peacemaker in the Middle East and in Iraq in particular
PS. But just one retired politician for such a great plan?
” Поздно пить боржоми!”
They should sell it here in normal shops after properly marketing it – they’d make a fortune helping to sort out Irish hangovers on friday, saturday, sunday and monday mornings and would still shift a lot of the stuff to midweek drinkers like students. As it is it can be got here in Eastern European shops, sitting forlornly on shelves alongside the crime against humanity that is saurkraut and the usual ten-litre drums of oily mayonnaise.
Right, which we don’t know. In the absence of evidence, this is slander.
Eh? For starters, slander must be spoken. I am writing, therefore for it would be libel, if anything.
Secondly, speculating as to whether his highly inappropriate actions in his last days in office constitute bribery or not is not libelous.
Take that back. Sauerkraut is delicious.
“For starters, slander must be spoken. I am writing, therefore for it would be libel, if anything.”
Can you prove you are not speaking to yourself as you type, a sort-of sounding the words slowly out thing?
But he did a good job for Germany. And continues to do good job. I guess this was his conditions to sign the deal.
Yes, he was doing such a good job for Germany that he was turfed out of office. As for whether signing Germany up to the Nord Stream project was good for Germany remains to be seen, but if it is, it is pure coincidence on his part.
”Like Germany and China and France.”
Yeah, Russian influence is so great with these guys that two of them have spent the last month roundly condemning Russia at every opportunity re Georgia and China havent given an iota of support for the independence recognitions of Ossetiya and Abkhazia.
With friends like these….
”They’re not. The subject has been raised; that’s all.”
Its still pretty pathetic to even raise it, to be honest. ‘Hostel’ was shown on Rossiya the other nite and surely that’s a lot worse than any SP episode.
Sounds to me like the total disrespect for any authority has gotten South Park in the line of fire, rather than cartoon depictions of gore.
”Take that back. Sauerkraut is delicious.”
Chris I cant. I just cant. I love schii made with crispy, just cooked cabbage, but the other stuff with the sauerkraut….no. No, no, no!!
Can you prove you are not speaking to yourself as you type, a sort-of sounding the words slowly out thing?
Yeah, I’m at work, supposed to be supervising some mechanical work on an offshore platform. People would notice if I started talking to myself.
I didn’t know that. I mean I didn’t know that such project as Nordstream takes few days to finish. But you are expert, Tim, you are expert.
PS. As expert, do you think this project is good for Germany?
I mean I didn’t know that such project as Nordstream takes few days to finish.
I’m not an expert, but I know the difference between committing to a project and executing one. And committing to a project doesn’t take long, not long at all in fact.
As expert, do you think this project is good for Germany?
As an expert, I wouldn’t know. As a layman, I wouldn’t know either. But as a layman, I know that the decision should have been much more transparent and open to far more discussion than it was. But then, Schroeder didn’t have much time, did he?
What platform your are working on, Tim. Nothing personal, but I don’t want to be blamed if something happens there
“Yeah, Russian influence is so great with these guys that two of them have spent the last month roundly condemning Russia at every opportunity re Georgia and China havent given an iota of support for the independence recognitions of Ossetiya and Abkhazia.”
No, they’ve been condemning Russia in public for domestic reasons while at the same time not doing anything and all to it, because they don’t have a leg to stand on. China is not going to recognize separatists anywhere, any time, because of Tibet and Taiwan and the Uighurs. which are kind of important issues for China.
Really, your muleheadedness on this issue is nigh-Averkian in its scope.
A propos of nothing, I’m playing Victoria by the Kinks on my guitar. That is on good song.
“For the record, I think Saakashvili is a hot-head who acted rashly”
I think it was an incredibly stupid decision, but not borne out of stupidity (as top IQ, Saak is obviously smart). Somehow Saak and his advisors convinced themselves that they can pull it off. Perhaps a combination of wishful thinking and bad intelligence.
“and the Georgian Army, despite US training, was not well prepared.”
The more I read the more obvious it becomes that Georgian military performance was just plain awful. Much worse that anticipated.
“However, the broader idea of Georgia retaining South Ossetia and Abkhazia seems to have wide support among Georgians”
You are probably right. Remember, though, that the overwhelming majority of Serbs were dead set against losing control of Kosovo. Just like the wishes of Kosovars counted, the wishes of the Abkhazians and South Ossetians should count.
Jack Matlock has it right when with much common sense he write:
“… experience tells me that Georgia’s future lies in developing the areas it really controls, making clear that it will not use force to try to regain South Ossetia and Abkhazia, and taking care–the way the Finns have done ever since the Winter War–not to poke Russia in the eye. Nothing can weaken any country more in the long run than trying to rule people who don’t want to be ruled. Why not use foreign aid to rebuild, to integrate the refugees into Georgian society, to improve the economy and reduce corruption? If Liechtenstein can stay neutral, Monaco self-governing, and other mini-states scattered around Europe, why can’t, at least for a time, South Ossetia and Abkhazia?”
“If Liechtenstein can stay neutral, Monaco self-governing, and other mini-states scattered around Europe, why can’t, at least for a time, South Ossetia and Abkhazia?””
Because Saakashvili wants Georgia to be in NATO?
Shedd.
Could you give us the list of bribed by Russians politicians throughout the world?
Oh sure, I have that list quite handy. FSB was ever so kind as to hand it over to me …
Ok, so you refuse to believe Russia could peddle influence in the international corridors of power (or even among journalists), but accept it as normal US strategy (you know, billion dollar aid packages and other more subtle methods).
Others have been so kind as to suggest one of the more obvious means that Russia has used to court influence among foreign nations – give a job to a former Chancellor. But of course, that was entirely coincidental and benevolent, and provides no obvious means of influence within the existing German government.
Still, Nord Stream is an important project and pure economics would dictate that Germany might look upon Russian political positions with a more favorable eye, simply because it might be in their best interest to do so. I don’t think this is so shocking an example.
As CM said, the South Park ban hasn’t happened yet, it was just some group in Russia calling for banning it as an extremist cartoon. They specifically cited an episode from Season 3, “Mr. Hanky’s Christmas” (I might have the title slightly wrong as I am going by memory).
As to South Park and civilized manner, etc. It is satire. Derision is part of satire, and therefore by its nature it is disrespectful and possibly offensive to those people or groups satirized.
What platform your are working on, Tim.
Lunskoye-A, in the Sea of Okhotsk.
Because Saakashvili wants Georgia to be in NATO?
Is he the only Georgian who wants this? It is interesting that Russia has this impression that Saakashvili is dragging Georgia kicking and screaming into an alliance that Georgian citizens do not want.
Apparently I the only person who read that Shevardnadze interview. If the guy who was “swept” out of office in a “revolution” supports Georgia membership into NATO, who is Russia backing as the supposed opposition to this?
“Is he the only Georgian who wants this? It is interesting that Russia has this impression that Saakashvili is dragging Georgia kicking and screaming into an alliance that Georgian citizens do not want.”
No, not at all. I didn’t say “Georgia” because Georgia has a collective mind. AFAIK most people in Georgia (as opposed to Ukraine) want NATO membership. HOWEVER it should be said that this seems to be in part die to the probably erroneous belief that NATO membership will make it more likely to get EU membership.
“Georgia has a collective mind”
Georgia has NO collective mind, I mean.
With respect to Shevvy — well, for all the crap about how the Rose Revo was supposedly pro-Western and all that, Shevvy was already pro-Western. It was one pro-Western politician supplanting another.
I think it was an incredibly stupid decision, but not borne out of stupidity (as top IQ, Saak is obviously smart).
In the end, his goal might not have been winning SO, but gaining more financial and military aid, which he accomplished quite well.
Georgia wants NATO? Fine.
S. Ossetia and Abkhazia don’t. They don’t want to be part of Georgia neither.
And look at this guy – he must be bribed by Russia
http://civil.ge/eng/article.php?id=19431
To W. Shedd – Given Freddie/Fannie takeover, I think China wants the US taxpayer to be paying off our debt, not building permanent bases in Georgia. Even former war cheerleaders like T. Friedman are starting to point out that we cannot afford it; note article yesterday in NY Times “Georgia on my Mind.”
To all you Marlboro Men Re: Southpark. Isn’t it about kids in this supposedly pristine Western place populated by God-fearing, rugged American individualists uncovering all the ugly underbelly stupidity, selfishness, hypocracy and evil? Well, it’s not just a cartoon here anymore. We have Sarah Palin.
Shedd, do you understand what you are SAYING?
So to get a couple of billions is easy. Just start the conflict with Russia then – when hit into the nose – start crying?
How many NATO “founding fathers” would support such idea and Georgia membership?
And please, don’t tell me that NATO is a friend.
With respect to Shevvy — well, for all the crap about how the Rose Revo was supposedly pro-Western and all that, Shevvy was already pro-Western
I agree, but I find it interesting that Russian politicians personally demonize Saakashvili and attribute all the problems to him and so on. The words “regime change” were tossed about when people weren’t sure how far Russian tanks were going to push into Georgia.
There is also this whole business about Zurab Zhvania’s death, and Russians implying that he was killed by Saakashvili (or US allies) to carry MS into office, etc. The general tone appears to be one of painting his “regime’ as illegitimate, to justify possible greater actions in the future, etc.
High IQ you say, Kolya? I doubt it.
Take the note – it was on March 2008.
peacefull country?
So was Saak optimist or just idiot?
Oh! he forget about georgian battleships and aircarriers (inflatable – hence “air”).
They lied to you, Mishiko!
Aha! Bride politicians again!!!
full report from palata number six
http://www.civilgeorgia.ge/eng/article.php?id=17362
Who gives a shit what Saak is undertaking? And who is Sarkozy? Ah! The husband of Bruni
If I were Dima – I would talk to her!
“I think it was an incredibly stupid decision, but not borne out of stupidity (as top IQ, Saak is obviously smart). Somehow Saak and his advisors convinced themselves that they can pull it off. Perhaps a combination of wishful thinking and bad intelligence.”
My version of the Georgian attack on Tskhinvali (based on intimate perception and not supported by facts) is that Ossetins and Georgian people were shooting at each other forever until some Georgian commander lost it and ordered full-blown bombardment. Very simple. Saakashvilli is covering that, because the person who gave the order is his uncle or nephew, or somesuch.
Shedd, do you understand what you are SAYING?
Of course I understand. I have similar opinions about Russian (and US) goals in this whole mess.
And yes, all those involved, including Russia, put policy and ambitions ahead of lives of innocent civilians. Such is the very nature of war. Don’t pretend otherwise.
Don’t for a second pretend that Russia was entirely benevolent in this matter. The passing out of Russian passports to people in territories recognized internationally as part of Georgia was surely provocative and using these people as pawns within a larger game.
My version of the Georgian attack on Tskhinvali (based on intimate perception and not supported by facts) is that Ossetins and Georgian people were shooting at each other forever until some Georgian commander lost it and ordered full-blown bombardment.
I’d go along with this. It would explain why the Georgians were hopelessly unprepared for action.
number of our warplanes has doubled and the number of our helicopters ahs increased three-fold; the number of tanks has increased ten-fold
Sure, warplanes increased from 6 to 12 or some such number (actually, I had read 9 fighter planes, 6 operational but later read as many as 12). Same with helicopters, tanks. This is back to your “how many parrots long am I” references. The Georgian military is small and not terribly well equipped or trained. Yet.
You seem to be completely avoiding other parts of the discussion, as they don’t suit your purposes.
As far as I can reconstruct the timeline, heavy weapons were deployed that take a long time to be set up, and the Georgians almost took the city (in fact, they claimed they had). Which argues against a spur-of-the-moment operation.
If it is true that the Georgian peacekeepers abandoned their posts ahead of time, that also argues against it. (Something must have happened to them.)
“The Georgian military is small and not terribly well equipped or trained. Yet.”
Small and not well-equipped compared to what? All Georgia had to do was defeat the S. Ossetians and a few peacekeepers and seal off the Roki tunnel. This is not a major operation.
tim.
I respect you opinion about oil drilling and Russian politics.
But your military assumtions drives me crazy
To W. Shedd – Given Freddie/Fannie takeover, I think China wants the US taxpayer to be paying off our debt, not building permanent bases in Georgia.
I probably shouldn’t reply to this comment- but you can’t possibly be implying that China determines the size and cost of the US military or how that military is deployed?
“I probably shouldn’t reply to this comment- but you can’t possibly be implying that China determines the size and cost of the US military or how that military is deployed?”
If they don’t, that means China must not have any influence!
Small and not well-equipped compared to what? All Georgia had to do was defeat the S. Ossetians and a few peacekeepers and seal off the Roki tunnel. This is not a major operation.
I agree, especially with that Roki tunnel point, which is certainly suspicious or just down-right stupid.
Yet Russians seem to being creatng this fiction that Georgia is like another Israel, their military has grown by huge leaps and bounds, this war monger is being created on our borders by the US, and woe-is-us, how can the US be giving them so many weapons, and so much money, and we are going to be strong and not stand for it, and blah blah blah and ignoring Rosboronexports billions and billions in weapon sales to unsavory places in the world, etc.
Washington has just begun to crack open the wallet, so I would say … they ain’t seen nothing yet. To date, we have been measuring the growth of the Georgian military in parrots, we might be measuring its size in python’s soon.
Their commander-in-chief has contrary opinion…
Well from my point “georgian army” have always been a nonsense.
But if you are right – then Mishiko is dumb-dumb?
What parts are you talking about?
This is a topic about someone been crazy. I’ll provide you with report from palata No. 6 with directs words of the greatest democrat of the all times. But you didn’t want to talk about it
“To” not “top”. I wrote:
“as top IQ, Saak is obviously smart”
when I meant to write:
“as top IQ, Saak is obviously smart”
I do think Saak is smart. In this day and age you cannot get a graduate law degree at Yale unless you are smart. (I’m not saying genius, simply smart–that’s all.) This in itself does not say much. I have often seen smart people I know (unfortunately, myself included) act stupidly. Fortunately, none of those people I know are presidents.
“I agree, especially with that Roki tunnel point, which is certainly suspicious or just down-right stupid.”
I heard an interesting theory about why the Georgians may have left the pass open: Georgia shells South Ossetia, Ossetians flee through the tunnel, Georgia closes it off, and resettles South Ossetia with ethnic Georgians. Ethnic cleansing complete.
“Washington has just begun to crack open the wallet, so I would say … they ain’t seen nothing yet. To date, we have been measuring the growth of the Georgian military in parrots, we might be measuring its size in python’s soon.”
I doubt it, honestly. The last thing Washington wants is military tensions with Russia.
happy cracking your wallet
‘“as top IQ, Saak is obviously smart”
when I meant to write:
“as top IQ, Saak is obviously smart”’
These are the same thing.
I’d go along with this. It would explain why the Georgians were hopelessly unprepared for action.
It does, however, go against admissions by the US ambassador to Georgia that he recommended against Georgian military action in SO, prior to events unfolding.
Also, the reported length of time required for Georgia to station mobile artillery in the SO border region, would point to some sort of thought out military action, as opposed to a reaction to some supposed provocation.
I had thought that Russian’s opinion of Georgian fighting prowess was something akin to “their Gallic laziness combines with their Latinate voluptuousness with the result that they would rather eat and make love with their faces than fight.”
“their Gallic laziness combines with their Latinate voluptuousness with the result that they would rather eat and make love with their faces than fight.”
Where’s the quote from? I think I recognize it.
Kolya. I have no doubt you have more wisdom that many, many Yale graduates.
And one more. Yale dimplom doesn’t guarantee his owner can not go crazy
Have you read his last speech (I gave the link)? Do you think he is in clear mind?
PS. As to Shevarnadze – I’ll drink shampagne whe he dies…
Also, the reported length of time required for Georgia to station mobile artillery in the SO border region, would point to some sort of thought out military action, as opposed to a reaction to some supposed provocation.
I’d be surprised if Georgia’s artillery wasn’t already pointed in that direction for some time. It would certainly have been in the area, all 10 pieces of it. But I’m only idly running with a theme here, I’d not defend it if pushed.
happy cracking your wallet
You shouldn’t misunderstand my comments as offering support to many Washington policies.
I am personally fiscally conservative and find my governments current “borrow and spend” policies to be abhorrent.
Shedd is right – Georgian army is nonsense…
Their KVN teams were much better.
Our Chinese masters were moving the board this week-end. This was an unprecedented take-over – desperate in fact.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601080&sid=aslo2E01QVFI&refer=asia
As USA’s biggest lender, why wouldn’t China weigh in on the biggest line item in our budget.
”No, they’ve been condemning Russia in public for domestic reasons while at the same time not doing anything and all to it, because they don’t have a leg to stand on. China is not going to recognize separatists anywhere, any time, because of Tibet and Taiwan and the Uighurs. which are kind of important issues for China.
Really, your muleheadedness on this issue is nigh-Averkian in its scope.”
No, not really. My point was that Russia doesnt have any influence except with Pariah nations and intimidated neighbours. Nothing of what you have written has proven otherwise.
Can you give examples of Russia actually using their ‘influence’ into making France, Britain, Germany, China or Japan into doing anything in recent years? Again, for the cheap seats, selling stuff to countries doesnt count as influence.
But I’m only idly running with a theme here, I’d not defend it if pushed.
Ya ponimayu … we also, none of us, were actually there on the ground, and relying upon news and misinformation filtered through news reports, etc.
The last thing Washington wants is military tensions with Russia.
I’m much less sure about that. I don’t see the US buckling or changing policy, despite tensions over ABMs in Poland, warships in Black Sea, NATO expansion, and so on. What I see is Cheney running around, making promises, so investors won’t be scared away from pipeline projects. The message seems to be “full-steam ahead”.
Or “Damn the torpedoes”, if you prefer.
Where’s the quote from? I think I recognize it.
Last of the Mohicans. General Webb remarking about how they have no need for militias, as the French are poor soldiers, etc.
“Can you give examples of Russia actually using their ‘influence’ into making France, Britain, Germany, China or Japan into doing anything in recent years?”
“Influence” does not mean “force.” This is not like the relationship the US has with Britain.
(That was a joke, that.) Why is the EU doing NOTHING to Russia over Georgia, but is doing pretty much everything they want? Could it be because Russia is… influencing them?
YOU ARE AVERKO. You have become that which you most hate.
He who fights with monsters must take care, lest he thereby become a monster.
“I don’t see the US buckling or changing policy, despite tensions over ABMs in Poland, warships in Black Sea, NATO expansion, and so on. What I see is Cheney running around, making promises, so investors won’t be scared away from pipeline projects. The message seems to be “full-steam ahead”.”
Cheney is just Cheney, trying to make sure the next president is a Republican. I expect the US to do a lot of loud woofing and then bow out while nobody’s looking.
”YOU ARE AVERKO. You have become that which you most hate.”
NO! NO! NO! Comes the mournful cry of despair!
Why are you posting under this “Irishman” pseudonym, Mike? What have you done with Ger?
”Why are you posting under this “Irishman” pseudonym, Mike? What have you done with Ger?”
I buried the Irishman Troll in my Malverne Park ya’d, mwahahaha!
I expect the US to do a lot of loud woofing and then bow out while nobody’s looking.
In other words, you think Obama’s going to win the election?
Actually, I think it is almost impossible for the US to “bow out” on Georgia at this stage of the game, pipeline politics being what it is.
“In other words, you think Obama’s going to win the election?”
I wouldn’t want to bet my life on this, but I think it will happen no matter who wins the election. Russia has basically called the US’s bluff. Saak was apparently expecting the US to come save his ass, and the US did — nothing.
“I buried the Irishman Troll in my Malverne Park ya’d, mwahahaha!”
I saw this movie.
‘“as top IQ, Saak is obviously smart”
when I meant to write:
“as top IQ, Saak is obviously smart”’
These are the same thing.
////
Obviously I’m not smart
I meant, “as to IQ, Saak…”
Sorry, Ivanov, I have not read his last speech. Not yet.
Aren’t at least some Georgian politicians openly questioning Saak’s decision to attack as well as his performance in general? Naturally, those critics have to do it in a way that does not appear either unpatriotic or pro-Russian. Heck, Israel was victorious in the 1973 Yom Kippur War, and yet there was significant political fall-out that eventually compelled Golda Meir to resign as Prime Minister.
I hope to be wrong about this, but I’m afraid that McCain will win the elections. Perhaps it’s becoming less and less powerful, but I think it’s too soon to discount the Bradley Effect. From a NYRB article:
/////
Some people who are telling pollsters they’re for Obama could actually be lying. Such behavior has been called the “Bradley Effect,” after Tom Bradley, a black mayor of Los Angeles who lost his bid to be California’s governor back in 1982. While every poll showed him leading his white opponent, that isn’t how the final tally turned out. Things haven’t been far different in some other elections involving black candidates. In 1989, David Dinkins was eighteen points ahead in the polls for New York’s mayoral election, but ended up winning by only a two-point edge. The same year, Douglas Wilder was projected to win Virginia’s governorship by nine points, but squeaked in with one half of one percent of the popular vote. Nor are examples only from the past. In Michigan in 2006, the final polls forecast that the proposal to ban affirmative action would narrowly prevail by 51 percent. In fact, it handily passed with 58 percent. That’s a Bradley gap of seven points, which isn’t trivial. …
… the Bradley gap persists after voters have actually cast their ballots. Just out of the booth, we hear them telling white exit pollers that they supported the black candidate, whereas returns from these precincts show far fewer such votes. Thus they lie to interviewers they don’t know and will never see again. … Almost all people who reject black candidates say they have nonracial reasons for doing so. And many undoubtedly believe what they’re saying. So I’m not persuaded that the Bradley gap won’t emerge this year. The Obama campaign would do well to print signs to post prominently in all its offices: ALWAYS SUBTRACT SEVEN PERCENT!
/////
http://www.nybooks.com/articles/21771
”“I buried the Irishman Troll in my Malverne Park ya’d, mwahahaha!”
I saw this movie.”
The sequel is going to be even better. I’m going to Moscow for my first (cough!) I mean 20th trip to seek Chrisius Maximus and Peter Lavelle at a Shokolodnitsa. Then I torture them to death by reading my Serbianna artciles to them while they hang upside down from a tree in Izmailovsky Park. Its gonna be like ‘Hostel’ only much more unpleasant!
Then finally Russia Today will know the glory that is MAA and I’m gonna be their anchor. With NO EDITING.
Mwahahaha!
”Why is the EU doing NOTHING to Russia over Georgia, but is doing pretty much everything they want? Could it be because Russia is… influencing them?”
The EU never actually do anything, anyway. And with respect to Georgia, they arent even in the EU. The EU itself is not directly affected by what has happened. They’re annoyed, sure. If it was an EU country then I think the EU would surely do something. Think of it the other way – would Russia pull a stunt like that on an EU nation? No way. So who is influencing who, really? The EU needs the oil and gas, but Russia needs the cash just as much. Stalemate.
“Think of it the other way – would Russia pull a stunt like that on an EU nation?”
I think the question is more one of, “would an EU nation pull a stunt like that on Russia?”
Saak was apparently expecting the US to come save his ass, and the US did — nothing.
Nah, US wasn’t going to ride in like the cavalry in response. Logistically, just couldn’t happen.
But like I said, I would be completely unsurprised if the US put a base in Georgia.
I don’t see the US stepping away from Georgia, unless Obama completely changes course. I don’t think he’s going to win the election though.
The EU needs the oil and gas, but Russia needs the cash just as much.
Doesn’t Russia have the world’s largest financial reserves at this time? And they can always sell oil and gas to other places.
I think it is more likely that the EU would split, in the face of any real challenging Russian issue.
”Some people who are telling pollsters they’re for Obama could actually be lying. Such behavior has been called the “Bradley Effect,” after Tom Bradley, a black mayor of Los Angeles who lost his bid to be California’s governor back in 1982. While every poll showed him leading his white opponent, that isn’t how the final tally turned out.”
The same thing happened in Ireland last year, where the opposition seemed certain to win, and most famously to Labour in the UK in 1992, when at the last minute the Sun newspaper changed its mind and encoraged people to keep the Tories in.
I have to say that for a man who was a tortured POW and someone who has clearly seen a lot, McCain sure talks a massive load of bullshit. Are US voters really taken in by the utter crap that was spouted at those Conventions last week?
”Doesn’t Russia have the world’s largest financial reserves at this time? And they can always sell oil and gas to other places.”
No. The third largest. Half the country is a dump though, so they have considerably bigger long term infrastructural bills than developed nations like Britain and Japan. I read somewhere if oil was to drop below $70 a barrel Russia would be heading back to shit-land very quickly. The Russian reserve is I think 700 Billion. That works out at around 5,000 dollars per person in Russia. In other words half a handbag in Petrovskii Passazh.
“I read somewhere”
Seriously, I don’t think many professional economists — as opposed to people writing op-eds — agree.
“I have to say that for a man who was a tortured POW and someone who has clearly seen a lot,”
We have only his word that he was tortured, by the way, though I think it likely.
“I think it is more likely that the EU would split, in the face of any real challenging Russian issue.”
I agree.
A propos of nothing 2. Just watched the infamous Fr Ted episode ”Kicking Bishop Brennan Up The Arse” on tv.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kRMvY6zslYg&feature=related
well worth a look lads
”Seriously, I don’t think many professional economists — as opposed to people writing op-eds — agree.”
Fair enough. But consider that Ireland, population 4 million, costs 100 billion a year to run. Russia, population 125 million, has reserves of 700 billion. Its not a lot when you think of it in those terms.
”We have only his word that he was tortured, by the way, though I think it likely.”
I googled him recently and found a few Vietnam vets who werent one bit happy that he was mentioning this at all with respect to getting elected. Still though if half the shit he claims happened did then he’s some man.
”I read somewhere””
I did. I just cant remember where.
Here
Does making above mentioned “powers” (except China) do NOTHING but “strongly condemning” count?
Let’s see…
Sarkozy flying back and force between Moscow and Tbilisi. I think Bruni has missed him…
Milliband/Brown threatening Russia with…what really?
Merkel…yes, very scary…but her Foreign Minister said “Fuck eu, guys” (in diplomatic language) and announced he’ll beat Merkel on next election.
Japan…hm…I haven’t heard that Japan was really condemning much if at all. Surrounded by China, Koreas and Russia – Japan not in the good position to condemn much.
China. As far as I remember they said “All sides involved should resolve dispute by themselves”. By my knowledge of Chines – they said “Might is right. And we are not going to forgive August 8 as well…”
Did I miss someone else from the “world”? Oh yes! Estonia! They scare me…fast and furious indeed.
”I did. I just cant remember where.
Here”
db, you’re simply a Legend. Thanks a lot.
Don’t read then. I don’t want you to be disappointed by Yale.
try this above
“ivanov on September 8, 2008 9:18 am”
Speak for yourself, Shedd, speak for yourself…
I was getting info from the guys ON THE GROUND. And from the very first moment.
I’m also trying to read not news but “newsmakers” – like Saak’s speeches. You can do this also if you want.
“It does, however, go against admissions by the US ambassador to Georgia that he recommended against Georgian military action in SO, prior to events unfolding.”
W. Shedd,
I fail to see how insistence by the US for Georgians not to do anything stupid invalidates the theory that Georgians actually did something stupid.
Btw, yound democratic are known to do stupid things. For example, young US decided to ‘liberate’ Canada in 1812 and started agressive war against Great Britain. The war quickly proved very unpopular, American troops were quickly routed, fled and deserted, and the US almost lost its hard-gained Independence as a result.
Candide.
Did they do or they didn’t do VERY stupid step?
I’m somewhat confused by your last posts.
”Does making above mentioned “powers” (except China) do NOTHING but “strongly condemning” count?”
ivanov,
getting roundly condemned by just about everyone bar China for a military adventure is not influence. Its simply condemnation. If you are trying to equate notoriety with influence, then you’d better recheck the meaning of both in a dictionary.
Looks like Happy Tree Friends and Mr Hanky the Christmas Poo have fallen foul of City Hall:
http://www.themoscowtimes.com/article/1010/42/370779.htm
in fairness Happy Tree Friends is very definitely not for kids, and neither is SP. I wonder are they showing this stuff too early in the day or without adult warnings.
The SP episode when Santa gets shot down ”Black Hawk Down” style over Baghdad and is rescued by Jesus and the boys is just a classic. And the more recent one where Jimmy reaches puberty is a gem as well:-)
Irishman, could you repeat your мысль again?
“Just about everyone” – you mean EU and US? But as I said I would be really concerned (or scared) if China “condemned” Russia.
As to US – ya ponimayu their frustration. The “best army in Caucasus” seized to exists in few days and Russia don’t show any indication even to listen to US opinion about the matter.
And if both US and EU do nothing about “Russian aggression” – is this because of their kindness? Or because they don’t want to test Russian real influence? …
ivanov,
I was trying to say that Georgians were the ones who commited a stupid atrocity.
Russians may talk how US encouraged them, and Americans may talk how Russia provoked them, but ultimately the Georgians are responsible for their own actions. Hopefully, they’ll learn a good lesson.
”Irishman, could you repeat your мысль again?”
I said (and say again, for the millionth time) that Russia is not a major power and is unable to influence any decent class of a country worth talking about. My point about the flak Russia has been getting is that this flak does not equate to Russia having influence; it simply means Russia, once again, has pissed off the EU and the US with its antics. No-one has respect for Russia in this part of the world. Russia is just considered an annoyance. Your own state have made sure no-one has respect for Russia except the likes of Cuba and Uzbekistan. Thats not the fault of your people, its the fault of your government who are pretty nasty to be honest. No offence is meant by this; I’m calling it as I see it, which you may consider wrong but that’s my take. Wouldnt you think the Russian government would be more concerned with ensuring all its citizens have adequate toilet facilities and running water than wasting cash on humiliating Georgia?
”And if both US and EU do nothing about “Russian aggression” – is this because of their kindness? Or because they don’t want to test Russian real influence? …”
I think the Americans are simply over extended(as are the Brits) at the moment. And as I have stated above, Georgia is neither a member of the EU or NATO – they got themselves in this shit (probably provoked by Russia in the first place, after Russia’s nasty attempt to destroy Georgia with baseless food and wine bans didnt exactly work )
if a small portion of people in the west cycled to work and simply put on a jumper when they felt a bit chilly at home, Russia would have nothing worth arguing over, bar literature and women. So everyone,as the guy in the Telegraph article says, lets sort out Russia, shall we? BE ENGERY EFFICIENT!
I agree that Saakashvili is responsible (as well as his teachers at Yale).
And I’m sorry for Georgians. Since collapse of CCCP they still getting from one shit into other.
As to learning the lesson – I doubt about it. How they are supposed to learn the lesson if they get 1 billion cake?
OMG!
ivanov,
When you get your country overrun 1 billion doesn’t even begin to cover it. And for Washington, 1 bil is nothing. There is a saying there, “If they assign less than a billion, they just don’t care”.
So they care, but just barely.
And they can always sell oil and gas to other places.
Medvedev has just been busy threatening the Canadians about selling their gas to someone else if the Canadians block Gazprom’s involvement in one of their LNG projects. Russia seems to be a doing a good job of ditching its best customers before they’ve even entered the shop. I have a feeling they’re going to end up relying on China as their main customer, at which point they are going to get a nasty lesson in who holds the power in a buyer-seller relationship.
“Tim as victim of his own propaganda”
*типа заголовка в газете*
1. Medvedev but not Dima (aka president). It was Gazprom Deputy CEO Alexander Medvedev!
2. It was not Russian threatening Canadians in the first place. It was Canadian prime-minister.
“Canadian Prime Minister Stephen Harper said last month commercial natural gas deals with Russia could be put at risk because of Russia’s military action in Georgia.”
3. What Medvedev said was just and explanation
“”If there is a nightmare scenario that for some reason this project will be out of reach of realization based on a Canadian political decision, then for us it will be easy to find an alternative destination for our LNG,” Medvedev said.”
4. So if the crazy (or stupid) customer doesn’t want the shop – how we can help such a customer?
But looks like Canadian PM overestimate his importance
“Medvedev said Rabaska’s management had assured Gazprom the Canadian Prime Minister’s statement would not hinder the finalization of the project.”
http://uk.reuters.com/article/oilRpt/idUKL871891420080908
“No-one has respect for Russia in this part of the world.”
You live in Ireland, a place so small you could trip over it by accident coming home drunk in the dark, not in a European country of importance, such as Germany, which is a Russophilic country, a fact of which you seem blissfully unaware.
I also think you are doing this thing where you conflate what people on the street think and what the better-informed people in the government think, that is, the people who matter. It is totally irrelevant what Joe Fuckwit who gets his news from the BBC thinks about foreign affairs, except insofar as his beliefs can be manipulated by domestic politicians, as they constantly are. What metters is what Chancellor Bubba thinks, and if you think any European head of state thinks Russia is unimportant, you’re out of your friggin’ mind.
Which brings me to something else. European heads of state do not give a fuck about “Russian barbarism in Chechnya” or that you have to “earn respect” (whatever that means). In reality, they have supported and continue to support these very things they are condemning rhetorically for purposes of manipulating Joe Fuckwit. This is because, unlike Joe Fuckwit, they live in the real world and have access to real information.
>em>If there is a nightmare scenario that for some reason this project will be out of reach of realization based on a Canadian political decision, then for us it will be easy to find an alternative destination for our LNG,” Medvedev said.
Yes, and where is this alternative destination, given Russia is doing its best to tell the EU much the same thing?
And also, why is Gazprom – itself a political organisation – now complaining about political decisions. Even Russians are complaining about Gazprom playing the political/non-political game as it sees fit. if Gazprom wants to present itself as the interests of the Russian political class and get itself involved in political decisions dressed up as “national energy security”, then they’d better get used to governments treating them as a political entity and being subject to political decisions.
I said this before on another thread, but I really find Russia to be hopelessly out of its depth in the international arena. Their foreign policy is all at sea, they’ve pissed of practically everyone over Georgia and are baffled as to why anyone would object, and now they are treating the Canadian government as if they are some uppity private business in Moscow who has trodden on the mayor’s toes.
So if the crazy (or stupid) customer doesn’t want the shop – how we can help such a customer?
Yes, calling your customers stupid and crazy: always endears them to your wares.
“Yes, and where is this alternative destination, given Russia is doing its best to tell the EU much the same thing?”
Probably the EU, since the EU’s alternatives to Russia are Algeria and Iran.
Irishman
You could read by yourself
about
respect
“they’ve pissed of practically everyone over Georgia and are baffled as to why anyone would object,”
I doubt they’ve pissed off very many governments over Georgia. I’m pretty sure 90% of governments know they would have done the same thing.
“You could read by yourself
about
respect”
I have newfound respect for the Brits!
This was my favorite.
“Added: Thursday, 28 August, 2008, 19:16 GMT 20:16 UK
I think people should vote with their feet on this issue. I’m going to make a special effort to buy Russian goods.
Bilal Patel, London, UK”
Probably the EU, since the EU’s alternatives to Russia are Algeria and Iran.
Qatar, mainly. Or go nuclear. The EU could, if pushed (and Russia is doing some pushing) diverisfy away from Russian gas. As I said, if Russia doesn’t sell to the EU and doesn’t sell to Canada, who do they sell to?
I doubt they’ve pissed off very many governments over Georgia. I’m pretty sure 90% of governments know they would have done the same thing.
Yeah, hence the massive show of support.
2 Kolya.
By any means I ant to disappoint you about Yale. But do yo think anyone – unless being insane – would talk to and trust the guy?
Saakashvili: We Can Prove Georgia did not Start War
His buddy is claiming
I forgot the name of the guy who was claiming that victory just around the corner…when there were Red Army tanks around the corner. Could you recall the name?
PS. When some “world leaders” express support – are they really insane? Or just pretend to be?
”No-one has respect for Russia in this part of the world.”
You live in Ireland, a place so small you could trip over it by accident coming home drunk in the dark, not in a European country of importance, such as Germany, which is a Russophilic country, a fact of which you seem blissfully unaware.”
Ouch. Bitchy. If you could give a few examples of genuine German russophilia, as opposed to hyperbole, it’d enlighten me no end. And buying and selling stuff doesnt not count. I buy cigarettes from my shopkeeper who’s a Corkman. It doesnt mean I love Cork.
”I also think you are doing this thing where you conflate what people on the street think and what the better-informed people in the government think, that is, the people who matter. It is totally irrelevant what Joe Fuckwit who gets his news from the BBC thinks about foreign affairs, except insofar as his beliefs can be manipulated by domestic politicians, as they constantly are. What metters is what Chancellor Bubba thinks, and if you think any European head of state thinks Russia is unimportant, you’re out of your friggin’ mind.”
A gas station, a mere gas station. Everyone get those jumpers on and mighty Russia is timewarped back to 1995.
”Which brings me to something else. European heads of state do not give a fuck about “Russian barbarism in Chechnya” or that you have to “earn respect” (whatever that means). In reality, they have supported and continue to support these very things they are condemning rhetorically for purposes of manipulating Joe Fuckwit. This is because, unlike Joe Fuckwit, they live in the real world and have access to real information.”
Chris, only someone who hates the West (for whatever reason) could come out with such a pile of bullshit. If you genuinely believe that Western leaders actually dont care what has happened in Chechnya, all I can say is that I wonder did you get a hard time in high school and have some allergic reaction to everything left of the Russian border. The fact that Western leaders cant actually do anything about barbarism in Chechnya does not equate with not caring. When Brown and Merkel give Russia a hard time for the latest bit of brutality, I believe them. If that makes me a fuckwit, I’d rather stay that way. Please stop trying to equate the nastiness and cynicism of the Putin government with everyone in the EU and the US. There is no doubt cynicism exists in the EU, but at the same time, nobody here would level one of their OWN cities and kill at least 40,000 of their own citizens. Brown and Merkel are not Western versions of Putin. They are not brutes.
”if you think any European head of state thinks Russia is unimportant, you’re out of your friggin’ mind.”
You’ve moved the goalposts. The original argument was that Russia was a power up there with Britain and the UK. Nobody said Russia was unimportant. It has its uses – like Saudi, the UAE and Iran – namely pumping oil. But it is bascially of no greater importance than Iran or Saudi. It just happens to have nukes. If it didnt it’d be part of China long ago.
Tim.
You should be aware more than anyone here – if not EU or canada – there is JAPAN and the whole Asia.
PS. have you heard about Mitsui?
”“You could read by yourself
about
respect”
I have newfound respect for the Brits!”
This is the problem when students dont have summer jobs. They spend all their time idling on the internet with fanicful notions.
Irishman, you don’t have to type so many bukoff indeed. You point is clear. But I’m more convinced by “most recommended” section of BBC’s Have your say.
BTW it was Stalin who left Russia with nukes. And it is his statue that stays in the center of Gori in Georgia. The irony of the history.
”I doubt they’ve pissed off very many governments over Georgia. I’m pretty sure 90% of governments know they would have done the same thing.
Yeah, hence the massive show of support.”
90% of governments wouldn’t have acted like a short-dick man to Georgia in the first place, with baseless food and wine bans and endless provocations. They’d be busy, as I said above, making sure all their citizens had proper heating, toilet facilities and water, rather than getting upset over the Ossetiyans and Abkhaz, whom they dont really care about anyway but have simply used for their own nefarious purposes.
”Irishman, you don’t have to type so many bukoff indeed.”
I know. Its a slow wet day in Ireland and am just being a cnut for the sake of it, really.
“Chris, only someone who hates the West (for whatever reason) could come out with such a pile of bullshit. If you genuinely believe that Western leaders actually dont care what has happened in Chechnya”
Now, they don’t. In fact, they gave, and give, support. Especially, supposedly, Germany.
This is because, since they read CIA and Interpol reports, rather than the Economist, they knew Chechnya was a tumor ready to explode (if tumors can explode), spreading Islamoid puss all over the place, and was a danger to them as well as to its neighbors, given its habit of hosting jihadis similar to that bearded guy in Pakistan.
They also know that they would have done the same thing if something similar had occured in their own countries — and would have been right to do so. Kindly note that, as far as I know, while there have been a billion condemnations of Russia in Chechnya in the civilian press, there have been next to none in the military press. Just the opposite. Why is that? Could it be because the military actually know something about this shit?
The public condemnations are for the sake of pandering to the European variant of Joe Fuckwit, who has deluded himself into thinking he lives in a pacifistic world and thinks the quiet of his village is a universal norm.
“90% of governments wouldn’t have acted like a short-dick man to Georgia in the first place, with baseless food and wine bans and endless provocations.”
Right. 90% of governments would never use economics as a political weapon.
What 90% of governments do when their peacekeepers are fired on is open up a can of whupass, as happened in Mogadishu.
You should be aware more than anyone here – if not EU or canada – there is JAPAN and the whole Asia.
Ah, finally. So Russia is going to supply Asia with gas, by far and away the largest customer is going to be China. And what did I say earlier? I have a feeling they’re going to end up relying on China as their main customer, at which point they are going to get a nasty lesson in who holds the power in a buyer-seller relationship.
PS. have you heard about Mitsui?
I kind of work for them. I kind of work for Gazprom for that matter.
“They’d be busy, as I said above, making sure all their citizens had proper heating, toilet facilities and water, rather than getting upset over the Ossetiyans and Abkhaz,”
Couldn’t you say this about Georgia, and to a much greater extent? And since when can’t countries do two things at once?
“whom they dont really care about anyway but have simply used for their own nefarious purposes.”
How do you know this?
Actually, I think the main party here who doesn’t care about the Ossetians and Abkhaz is you. They don’t fit into your narrative of events, so they are discarded. The fact that they don’t want to be part of Georgia is, apparently, irrelevant, as was the fact that over 300 of them just got murdered.
This is because, since they read CIA and Interpol reports, rather than the Economist, they knew Chechnya was a tumor ready to explode (if tumors can explode), spreading Islamoid puss all over the place, and was a danger to them as well as to its neighbors, given its habit of hosting jihadis similar to that bearded guy in Pakistan.
I’ve said it before, I’ll say it again: you’ve been in Moscow too long. Even the Arabs didn’t believe this.
The public condemnations are for the sake of pandering to the European variant of Joe Fuckwit, who has deluded himself into thinking he lives in a pacifistic world and thinks the quiet of his village is a universal norm.
This would carry more weight if the UK had not embarked on two wars based purely on humanitarian grounds.
“I’ve said it before, I’ll say it again: you’ve been in Moscow too long. Even the Arabs didn’t believe this.”
Of course the Arabs didn’t believe it. It would have been contrary to their worldview.
“This would carry more weight if the UK had not embarked on two wars based purely on humanitarian grounds.”
I do not see how this is relevant. (Which wars?)
Anyway, as we know a priori, the UK must have been in these wars for their own nefarious purposes!
Of course the Arabs didn’t believe it. It would have been contrary to their worldview.
Trust me, if the Arabs didn’t think Chechnya was a place where many jihadists go, then it wasn’t.
I do not see how this is relevant.
Because you are saying that European condemnation of Russia’s brutality in Chechnya is not sincere and in reality the governments couldn’t give a stuff. Yet the UK government committed itself to war in stopping brutality in both Kosovo and Sierra Leone, which does not marry up too well with your assertion that governments only pretend to condemn brutality.
“Trust me, if the Arabs didn’t think Chechnya was a place where many jihadists go, then it wasn’t.”
Ah, I see what you mean. Yeah, the jihadi presence in Chechnya was mostly composed of locals and a few foreigners, which does not mean they were not jihadis.
“Yet the UK government committed itself to war in stopping brutality in both Kosovo and Sierra Leone, which does not marry up too well with your assertion that governments only pretend to condemn brutality.”
Those are wars fought somewhere else to stop somebody else’s brutality, and so are not directly relevant to what a government views as acceptable in the perceived action of defending itself.
Yeah, the jihadi presence in Chechnya was mostly composed of locals and a few foreigners, which does not mean they were not jihadis.
Yes: and it also means that Europeans governments did not think that “Chechnya was a tumor ready to explode, spreading Islamoid puss all over the place, and was a danger to them as well as to its neighbors”.
“Yes: and it also means that Europeans governments did not think that “Chechnya was a tumor ready to explode, spreading Islamoid puss all over the place, and was a danger to them as well as to its neighbors”.”
Does not follow, unless one wants to infer from the fact that the Taliban are 99% Afghan that therefore the Taliban pose no threat.
Those are wars fought somewhere else to stop somebody else’s brutality, and so are not directly relevant to what a government views as acceptable in the perceived action of defending itself.
Defending itself? I’m not sure many European government saw Russia as defending itself during the Chechen wars, it was more a case of Russia using brutal methods to crush an ethnic minority who supposedly wanted to secede, which is exactly how they viewed Kosovo.
”Now, they don’t. In fact, they gave, and give, support. Especially, supposedly, Germany.”
The war is over Chris. The people are dead. Of course they give ‘’support” to rebuilding. Its not the same thing as supporting the war.
“whom they dont really care about anyway but have simply used for their own nefarious purposes.”
How do you know this?”
I dont. But based on past form – namely the Russian inability to let Georgia do its own thing – I think its a reasonable assumption.
”This is because, since they read CIA and Interpol reports, rather than the Economist, they knew Chechnya was a tumor ready to explode (if tumors can explode), spreading Islamoid puss all over the place, and was a danger to them as well as to its neighbors, given its habit of hosting jihadis similar to that bearded guy in Pakistan.”
I dont think you’re getting info from interpol, more like ORT. A bunch of nuts with no popular support whatsoever SUPPOSEDLY invade Dagestan and Russia conveniently has an invasion force on hand to move in, after a series of explosions in Moscow whom no-one knows who carried out. Remember Ryanzan? The FSB ”drill” with a truckload of hexogen? Some drill that.
Does not follow, unless one wants to infer from the fact that the Taliban are 99% Afghan that therefore the Taliban pose no threat.
The Taliban didn’t pose any threat, other than hosting foreign jihadists who used Taliban controlled territory as a base from which to launch international acts of terrorism. Chechnya didn’t host such jihadists, nor was their territory used as a base in such a manner.
“The war is over Chris. The people are dead. Of course they give ‘’support” to rebuilding. Its not the same thing as supporting the war.”
No, they supported them during the war. As when they cut off funding to the various Islamist charities who were supporting the Ichkerian/Islamist hodgepodge.
“I dont. But based on past form – namely the Russian inability to let Georgia do its own thing – I think its a reasonable assumption.”
Nobody was willing to let Georgia do its own thing. Those peacekeepers were there based on an international agreement, and the idea was floated several times for European peacekeepers to be present, who it appears now will actually be going, but no European country was willing to send any.
“A bunch of nuts with no popular support whatsoever”
Basaev came in second to Maskhadov in the Chechen elections.
“SUPPOSEDLY invade Dagestan”
Supposedly? This didn’t really happen?
“and Russia conveniently has an invasion force on hand to move in”
Hardly convenient. There was no Russian armed forces presence in Dagestan, with the result that the incursion was repelled by Dagestani militias.
You seem to not be aware, or have forgotten, that the war was precipitated by Maskhadov’s refusal to hand over Basaev and Khattab.
“after a series of explosions in Moscow whom no-one knows who carried out.”
Doesn’t it bother you that this narrative is the same as those of the 9/11 conspiracy theorists, that the bombings took place just after Khattab announced he would bomb Russian cities, that Basaev originally said the apartment bombings were the work of mujaheedin, and that the main advocate of the theory is Alexander Prokhanov?
“The Taliban didn’t pose any threat, other than hosting foreign jihadists who used Taliban controlled territory as a base from which to launch international acts of terrorism.”
I’m pretty sure Khattab counts as a foreign jihadist, and, unless you subscribe to the “it was an FSB plot!” theory, I’m pretty sure blowing up apartment buildings counts as an international act of terrorism. Well, not international, but that’s beside the point.
Actually, even if you do subscribe to the FSB theory, I’m pretty sure all those bombs in Dagestan count.
“they cut off funding”
Sorry, this should be “put on the terrorist list and froze the accounts of”
I’m pretty sure Khattab counts as a foreign jihadist, and, unless you subscribe to the “it was an FSB plot!” theory, I’m pretty sure blowing up apartment buildings counts as an international act of terrorism. Well, not international, but that’s beside the point.
But European governments were not concerned with him or anyone else. They were concerned when Russia flattened the place.
“But European governments were not concerned with him or anyone else.”
Yes, they were.
Yes, they were.
If you can find me any contemporary reports of European heads of state warning of the dangers of jihadists in Chechnya, then you’ll be in with a ghost of a chance of me believing you.
”You seem to not be aware, or have forgotten, that the war was precipitated by Maskhadov’s refusal to hand over Basaev and Khattab.”
lol! Chris, in fairness, Maskhadov had no control over Basaev, EVER. As far back as 1995 Basaev launched the attack on Buddyonovsk hospital without ANY clearance or orders from Maskhadov. Blaming Maskhadov for the carry-on of Basaev is simply unfair, but it suited Moscow’s purpose – to teach Chechnya a lesson – to this.
”A bunch of nuts with no popular support whatsoever”
Basaev came in second to Maskhadov in the Chechen elections.”
He did. With 20% of the vote, in 1996. A full three years before 1999. Doesnt that tell you anything about his support?
”Doesn’t it bother you that this narrative is the same as those of the 9/11 conspiracy theorists”
Its not in the same league at all. The FSB in Moscow said it was put there in Ryazan as a drill. The local FSB said that was a load of shite before they quickly shut up. Who put it there?
”that the bombings took place just after Khattab announced he would bomb Russian cities,”
Talk is cheap. Truckloads of hexogen are harder come by.
”Actually, even if you do subscribe to the FSB theory, I’m pretty sure all those bombs in Dagestan count.”
I’m not saying I do. What I am saying is the whole thing stinks.
As for Dagestan, yes in fairness there was a bit of a battle. It was hardly El Alamein though. Whether this constituted a fresh invasion and a second round of Grozny-levelling is at the very least highly debateable.
“As far back as 1995 Basaev launched the attack on Buddyonovsk hospital without ANY clearance or orders from Maskhadov.”
But… but… but… I thought Maskhadov was the democratically elected president of Ichkeria, and so Russia should negotiate with him!!!”
“Blaming Maskhadov for the carry-on of Basaev is simply unfair, but it suited Moscow’s purpose – to teach Chechnya a lesson – to this.”
How do you know this was Russia’s purpose, considering it was far from certain they would win? For a more plausible motive, how about, “thse guys are destabilizing the region and blowing shit up, maybe we should stop them”?
“With 20% of the vote, in 1996. A full three years before 1999. Doesnt that tell you anything about his support?”
Combined with the fact that there was a civil war between Ichkerians, Sufi nationalists, and Basaev’s guys in 1999, and that Maskhadov had no control over him, this tells me his already sizeable 20% of support had increased in the intervening two years. Probably because he had access to foreign money.
“The FSB in Moscow said it was put there in Ryazan as a drill. The local FSB said that was a load of shite before they quickly shut up. Who put it there?”
How about the simplest explanation — it was an incompetently executed drill, of the type the FSB had announced it would be carrying out a few days before?
“Talk is cheap. Truckloads of hexogen are harder come by.”
Let me guess. You’re going to claim Basaev was on the Russian payroll, Kagarlitsky-style.
Not “truckloads. “Barrels.”
Hey, here’s a narrative that has the advantage of making sense!
1. Dagestanis and federal forces bomb Little Chechnya in Dagestan.
2. Khattab announces a bombing campaign in retaliation.
3. Bombs explode! WHAT AN AMAZING COINCIDENCE!
4. Basaev says the apartment bombings were the result of retribution by the Dagestanis for the bombing of Little Chechnya.
5. By another AMAZING COINCIDENCE!!!!, all the people indicted for the bombings are Dagestanis.
WOW!!!
“Whether this constituted a fresh invasion and a second round of Grozny-levelling is at the very least highly debateable.”
It’s debatable, sure. However, I think a lot of the criticism is disingenuous — it starts from the presupposition that Russia’s motives must have been the most dastardly conceivable, and then gathers data to buttress that position, instead of looking at what to my mind is the simplest explanation of events.
In this, it closely resembles the “Bush blew up the towers to justify invading Afghanistan to build a pipeline there” theory, which later morphed into “Bush blew up the towers to justify invading Iraq.” Or various narratives according to which all terrorist attacks by Palestinians against Israelis are all provocations secretly engineered by MOSSAD. I used to subscribe to versions of these silly theories, so I know that whereof I speak.
”But… but… but… I thought Maskhadov was the democratically elected president of Ichkeria, and so Russia should negotiate with him!!!””
Chris, that is neither here nor there. Your argument was that Russia was right to attack Maskhadov cos he couldnt hand over Basaev. Its ridiculous. Basaev was subordinate to nobody and couldnt even be found 90% the time.
”How about the simplest explanation — it was an incompetently executed drill, of the type the FSB had announced it would be carrying out a few days before?”
Did the FSB make such an announcement? If you have a link, provide it and I’ll accept the point.
”Let me guess. You’re going to claim Basaev was on the Russian payroll, Kagarlitsky-style.”
I dont recall saying that anywhere actually. Who said anyone needed Basaev?
”Not “truckloads. “Barrels.””
It was a KAMAZ full of sacks of hexogen. Your point is what exactly? And more seriously, who in fucks name would use LIVE HEXOGEN for a DRILL? More authenticity? Hexogen is a white powder material that looks like a million other compounds. They could have used talcum powder or sugar if they wanted a drill!
”Hey, here’s a narrative that has the advantage of making sense!..etc”
More like here’s a narrative courtesy of ORT news
“Your argument was that Russia was right to attack Maskhadov cos he couldnt hand over Basaev.”
I did not say it was right. I said the ultimatum was that Maskhadov hand over Basaev and Khattab, or Russian troops would be introduced. He couldn’t or wouldn’t. Moreover, he didn’t even condemn their actions, or apologize to the Dagestanis.
“Did the FSB make such an announcement? If you have a link, provide it and I’ll accept the point.”
I’m pretty sure they did, but I’m relying here on second-hand commentary and don’t have a link.
“They could have used talcum powder or sugar if they wanted a drill!”
Maybe they did?
“More like here’s a narrative courtesy of ORT news”
It’s more like, here’s a listing of events that actually happened, in the order they happened.
Khattab says stuff will be blown up. Then stuff is blown up, just like he said. Then, Basaev says stuff was blown up by mujaheedin, just like Khattab said was going to happen. So, why did they say all this stuff? On the FSB payroll? 
I am, by the way, not completely convinced that Maskhadov didn’t gave any control over Basaev. If memory serves, whenever Basaev pulled off something like Dubrovka, he would say he was doing in for Aslan. Maskhadov would stay silent until the attack fizzled out, and only then pronounce some negative comments.
“…Germany, which is a Russophilic country…”
Thanks for the laugh & tears, Chrisius.
Both Russia and Germany are just littered with monuments certifying their long history of mutual love. Anywhere you go in Russia and Germany you see a monument to Russo-German friendship. Those monuments are, like, in every small city and village. This is all very touching, really.
Hey, Ivanov, I agree that Saakashivili’s statements are ridiculous. That doesn’t mean he’s an idiot, just that his statements (to our ears) are idiotic. Saddam Hussein was a bad guy who ended up hanging at the end of a rope because he made several bad decisions, but he was no idiot. Before the 1991 Gulf War he boasted that the US will lose in the Mother of All Battles. The funny thing, though, is that after that war, after being badly and easily defeated, he, time and again, claimed victory. I guess some Georgians are doing the same now.
Perhaps Russia should learn how to do better PR. They can stress, for example, the restraint of Russia: after all, the Russian forces could have easily destroyed the fleeing Georgian forces. Whether purposefully or not, they didn’t destroy them. Well, Russia could have capitalized on that fact by claiming that they restrained themselves out of pity for Georgian mothers or something like that. Seriously, though, Georgia, as stupid as it was, is better at the PR game. Unfortunately PR matters more than it should.
To be fair, Russia was quite possibly within its rights to invade Chechnya to get to Khattab and Basaev.
For example, just recently Israel inflicted summary punishment on the whole of Lebanon for the actions of Hizbollah that Lebanese gov’t had no power to restrain.
“For example, just recently Israel inflicted summary punishment on the whole of Lebanon for the actions of Hizbollah that Lebanese gov’t had no power to restrain.”
Yeps.
“The funny thing, though, is that after that war, after being badly and easily defeated, he, time and again, claimed victory. I guess some Georgians are doing the same now.”
In fact, they’re doing it in the same way. “We’re still here, so we won!”
BTW if you can get it, I really recommend Primakov’s last book on the Middle East. He discusses Saddam’s psychology in some detail.
For example, just recently Israel inflicted summary punishment on the whole of Lebanon for the actions of Hizbollah that Lebanese gov’t had no power to restrain.
To Israel’s credit they did an investigation of this war and ruled that Olmert messed up bad. I’m happy to see that he might end up on trial for corruption. At least that country has some accountability.
To be fair, Russia was quite possibly within its rights to invade Chechnya to get to Khattab and Basaev.
Can Russia invade itself? Can the US invade Florida? When I go from the living room to the bedroom, am I invading my bedroom?
Language gets used in such sinister fashion during such events. Genocide, blitzkreig, ethnic cleansing, and (in this example) invasion. US is as guilty (or maybe more guilty) as anyone … “regime change” or “nation building” being used to camouflage invasion and installation of favorable governments. Discussions of “military action” against Iran, a camouflage for an act of war.
Likely a long-winded rant on an errant word, but sometimes these word choices are glossed over and readers (and writers) don’t examine what is said and why.
To Israel’s credit they did an investigation of this war and ruled that Olmert messed up bad. I’m happy to see that he might end up on trial for corruption. At least that country has some accountability.
Imagine Bush impeached for (mis)leading the country into war and corruption.
Imagine Bush tried for war crimes.
And no religion toooo.
What STEP is he – Eric Edelman, the under secretary of defense for policy, on September 9 – talking about?
“Imagine Bush impeached for (mis)leading the country into war and corruption.
Imagine Bush tried for war crimes.
And no religion toooo.”
You, you, darn hippie!
It’s your right to believe that Yale can install brains into heads
“А это мысль!” (с) Have no objection of such end for Saak.
As part of idiot vs. wise discussion would you read and comment following US MoD comments
http://civil.ge/eng/article.php?id=19455
(at least it relates to the topic)
So georgia just decided to “suppress firing positions” according to US MoDuki…but keep status quo…
Irishman! Are you scared to death by Russian might? You should (according to US)
Kolya, what is your opinion?
Is this delusion, cretinism or pure PR? And where did the study this?
PS. as I said – I was getting information from the guys on the ground from the very first minutes. So guys – be careful with mAss media shit when answering
“Imagine Bush tried for war crimes.”
Speaking of loose use of language.
I’m pretty sure that for Bush to be guilty of a war crime, he would have had to have deliberately ordered or encouraged the killing of civilians, which, despite my intense dislike of Bush, I doubt he has done.
Yes, by all means let’s not forget to denounce Bush. He was notoriously absent from this discussion where he most certainly belongs.
Are you sure Bush was behind all those decisions? Somehow I doubt it.
”Irishman! Are you scared to death by Russian might? You should (according to US)”
Not at all. Let loose Kilkenny senior hurlers on them:
http://www.rte.ie/sport/gaa/championship/2008/0907/kilkenny_waterford.html
they’d sort out the Russians!
Speaking of loose use of language.
Actually, not loose language at all. War Crimes are “Any of various crimes, such as genocide or the mistreatment of prisoners of war, committed during a war and considered in violation of the conventions of warfare.”
You could make a case against Bush based upon both jus ad bellum (laws regarding legitimacy of war) and jus in bello (laws regarding the conduct of war).
It is not going to happen, however, because victors are not put on trial for war crimes, victors write the rules and laws judging those who are defeated. However, men have been tried and convicted of war crimes for less than anything Bush has ever authorized.
I mean, Bin Laden’s driver was convicted of a war crime. And how many civilian deaths have occurred in Iraq to date?
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_convicted_war_criminals There is a list for you to chew on.
So, I was very specific with my language.
You, you, darn hippie!
Aren’t you the one living in Vermont?
To sum up, this post argues that American mercenaries (contractors) are in the region to secure American oil & gas interests. [This seems entirely believable to me.]
“Given all of this, is it too much to at most suggest or in the least ask questions of direct American involvement in this war? Maybe Putin isn’t crazy after all.”
It isn’t logical to assume that American contractors were involved in starting this war since it would go against the very reason you gave for their presence: to secure oil & gas interests. You are essentially contradicting yourself. A war (against a numerically superior opponent) would put those oil & gas interests at risk.
Maintaining the status quo — Russia in the breakaway regions only — would be the best way to keep those interests secure. Wars are after all, unpredictably destructive (potentially to pipelines) and also produce political uncertainty (which could also put control of pipelines at risk).
As for the link between Pentagon-sponsored training and other military invasions … there is a big difference between correlation and causation. Let’s say I went to a third world country and taught people English and computer skills. Subsequently, these people ran internet scams that bilked a lot of people out of money. Does that mean I caused the internet scams? Am I responsible for the criminal conduct of those I taught?
Does that mean I caused the internet scams? Am I responsible for the criminal conduct of those I taught?
First, I actually don’t think that the Americans orchestrated the war. I believe worse: that the Americans have been duped by all of Saakashvili “democracy” rhetoric.
I actually think the heart of this war had to do with Georgia, South Ossetia, and Abkhazia. Russia and the US were a consequence.
However, to say that the Americans had no role is difficult to deny. American tax money was used to train and arm Georgian troops and give private war companies in some cases no bid contracts to do the work. For these facts, America does have a role.
If we apply computer example across the board, then we should probably dump the notion of not recognizing the difference between terrorists and the states that support them.
Look at it this way, would the US or Israel hold Iran to blame if they airlifted in 2000 Hezbollah soldiers to fight Israel? Absolutely. And rightfully so.
Actually, the real intent of the post was to point to military contractors’ role in training Georgian troops. I would be much more at ease if American military personnel were doing this directly. I’m incredibly disturbed with the corporate privatization of war especially by companies that have strong political ties to the state.
If the US didn’t return the Georgian soldiers home (or delayed them by refusing to transport them), it still would have been taking sides in the conflict — but against Georgia. The US would have been impeding the Georgian military’s ability to defend their own country. From your perspective, damned if you do, damned if you don’t.
Your Hezbollah-Israel analogy doesn’t work. Iran would be transporting soldiers to attack another country. The US transported soldiers back to their country of origin AFTER that country was invaded. The situations are different, not analogous (offensive versus defensive actions). Also, waving scary words like Iran and Hezbollah isn’t going to salvage your weak argument.
Terrorist groups that are organized enough to be supported by states have clearly stated intentions that are usually something along the lines of a “declaration of war on” or intention to “kill Americans/Jews/etc”. For the computer skills example to be analogous, my students would have said to me, “Gee, I’m really poor. But, I heard about how someone can make lots of money over the internet by scamming rich Westerners. Will you teach me English and computer skills so I can do this?” In this situation, I would be responsible since I know how my students will use this knowledge.
Yes, Americans were training and arming the Georgians. But, was it for action against the breakaway regions? Very few countries are willing to send their soldiers to Iraq, but the Georgians were willing. Thus, they got training and equipment.
The Russians were financially supporting those breakaway regions and handing out Russian passports. Were they also arming the Ossetian irregulars? It seems like they did. Russia had a lot more to gain from this war.
The American government wound up with a rapid, unexpected drawdown on forces in Iraq at a time when the American public is calling for a reduction in American forces in Iraq. Presumably, American soldiers will now have to stay longer to replace the Georgian forces that left.
Amen, Sean. I agree with what you wrote:
“I actually don’t think that the Americans orchestrated the war. I believe worse: that the Americans have been duped by all of Saakashvili “democracy” rhetoric.
I actually think the heart of this war had to do with Georgia, South Ossetia, and Abkhazia. Russia and the US were a consequence.
However, to say that the Americans had A role is difficult to deny.”
All I can say is that in terms of leaders since its independence, Georgia had terrible luck.
“So, I was very specific with my language.”
Damn you and your point-by-point refutations, Shedd!
“If the US didn’t return the Georgian soldiers home”
Which by some odd coincidence they did when fighting was over, after hemming and hawwing for several days. Hmmm.
“All I can say is that in terms of leaders since its independence, Georgia had terrible luck.”
In my opinion, Georgia’s main problem is nationalism, all that “we are a freedom-loving mountain people with great traditions who were great once and we will be again” bullshit.
Contrary to what that Lenin guy said, the worst, most putrid nationalisms are those not of the big guy, but of the little guy, or rather of the little guy with respect to his own little guys. Kind of like the Chechens, in fact, and the Ichkerian “we are the natural leaders of the North Caucasus” line.
Sort of like the kid who beats up his little sister because Dad likes her more and he hasn’t gotten his allowance.
To Israel’s credit they did an investigation of this war and ruled that Olmert messed up bad.
That must have been the shortest investigation in history.
In my opinion, Georgia’s main problem is nationalism, all that “we are a freedom-loving mountain people with great traditions who were great once and we will be again” bullshit.
Take out “freedom-loving mountain people” and you’ve just described the prevailing opinion in Russia. All I keep hearing these days is bullshit like “we’re back” and “we’re gonna…” and “everyone will have to…”
One of my translators was telling me that Crimea rightly belongs to Russia and that Ukraine will have noticed what happened to Georgia and that unless they want the same they’d better get ready to ghand back Crimea in a few years. Worrying thing is, if Putin was stupid enough (which he most certainly isn’t) to announce a full-scale invasion of the Crimea tomorrow in order to make it part of Russia again, I think most Russians would think it was brilliant. At least half of the US opposed Bush going into Iraq, I think Russians would go along with pretty much anything right now.
Contrary to what that Lenin guy said, the worst, most putrid nationalisms are those not of the big guy, but of the little guy
A Russian warning of the dangers of small-country nationalism whilst downplaying big-country nationalism?!! Whatever next?!!
“A Russian warning of the dangers of small-country nationalism whilst downplaying big-country nationalism?!! Whatever next?!!”
That’s the opposite of what Lenin said. Since I’m not Russian, you can’t mean me.
Tim, who have actually been the perpetrators of pogroms in the fSU? Hacking people apart with axes, ethnic cleansing, and stuff like that? HINT: not Russians.
That’s the opposite of what Lenin said.
Ah, okay.
Tim, who have actually been the perpetrators of pogroms in the fSU?
Why, court-appointed not-so-Russia-friendlies, of course. Who else?
Lenin argued that the main enemy was “Great Russian Chauvinism” and asserted, at least rhetorically, that small nations should have the right of self-determination all the way to secession. That’s why the Chechens supported the Bolsheviks. He also had that things about “oppressor nation nationalism” (bad) and “oppressed nation nationalism” (good).
“Why, court-appointed not-so-Russia-friendlies, of course. Who else?”
Nice photos
http://vif2ne.ru/nvk/forum/0/co/1692330.htm
US servicemen training Georgians the art of hand-made mines?
A thought on the Crimea. Would the Ukraine be tempted if Russia bought it back? They could either do this by announcing energy price rises (but for you sir, 20% less over 10 years in return) or providing the locals with the cash to buy up as much land as possible? What am I talking about? The Ukranian law on property rights is as clear as mud. Bugger.