Oligarchs by Day, Nascent Democrats by Night

Didn’t the infamous Oligarchs bleed Russia dry in the 1990’s? I think it is high time for Russia to rebuild it’s national pride and the well-being of the average Russian citizen rather than allow the Oligarchs to reap all the profits and benefits of global business. The huge increase in the price of oil was a lifesaver for Russia. Hopefully, the powers that be in Russia will share the wealth which has been bestowed upon them. Maybe then the life expectancy of the average Ivan will surpass 60 years, People need pride, lack of it will kill as surely as drinking Vodka to excess.

Chrystia Freeland!

She’s a doozy! The first time I learned of her existence, she was on a news analysis program declaring that anyone who is not actively condemning the Putin Administration and supporting people like Kasparaov can’t claim to care about the Russian people. Now it’s one thing to assert such people don’t care about democracy. There might even me a kernel of truth in that, given the curious incarnations of democracy these days, I don’t know. But Chrystia Freeland unilaterally deciding who cares about the Russian people is a bit rich. Esp. given her track record of supporting the “liberals” whose policies actually led to the suffering of a lot of Russian people. Esp. given that a lot of, er, Russian people don’t support people like Kasparaov. Anyway, I’m sure the Russian people are thrilled that she cares about them so much.

And to add to Sean’s glaringly obvious point about the Oligarchs in the government, even if we assume she just means the other Oligarchs, the ones not currently in power (which would leave who? those in prison, on the lam?). Let’s talk about the track record those rugged individualist free-market capitalists have at bringing progress to Russia. How did that work out last time? Can someone remind me.

What pisses me off about people who take this line is not that democracy and human rights and cooperation are not worthy of our concern. It’s that their concerns appear to be Trojan horse for an agenda whose contribution to the improvement of democracy and human rights and cooperation is extremely questionable.

Richard: Share the wealth? Pshaw! That would be Communism. Or Socialism. Or Stalinism. Obviously.

“All of this coincides with three Cold War anniversaries: Russia’s 1998 financial default”

1998 was the Cold War?

My prediction of what “the West” will do to Russia: Nothing.

I think ‘Oligarchs’ as a revolutionary force are envisioned here strictly in an abstract sense. Kind of like ‘Proletarians’ in some other works of social fiction.

Magic space ponies come in all sizes and colors.

What about magic space ponies manure?

“Oligarchs by Day, Nascent Democrats by Night”

Hey, maybe being oligarchs is their secret identity, like Batman.

“My prediction of what “the West” will do to Russia: Nothing.”

My prediction, based on nothing at all in particular, is that if Russia is still in Georgia (proper) next week, sanctions and possible G8 explusion will occur. I think the US and UK would push for G8 expulsion, but some of the other EU countries would probably go weak, so it’s iffy.

The feeling I get is that the US state dept has pretty much given up on the pipe dream of getting Russia to cooperate on anything at this point. Russia has proven itself to not be a honest broker. Pretty much the only thing the US needed from Russia is cooperation on Iran. If it can’t get that, why bother with worrying about what might piss off Russia.

It was pretty iffy before, but now, with Germany giving the green light, Ukraine and Georgia will be accepted into NATO. That is assuming Russia doesn’t fully occupy both countries before the agreements are signed. If I was Ukrainian, I would be keeping a close eye on the Crimea. Georgia is going to lose South Ossetia and Abkhazia though to the Russian Federation.

One last thing, while the agreement with Poland was going to happen sooner or later, I think the events in Georgia gave Poland the upper hand, such that they got a unilateral protection agreement from the US and a shiny new air defense system. Don’t know that the US would have agreed to those terms without the Georgia conflict.

”Cold War II,” as it’s being called, already has critics’ panties in a bunch as to what to do about Russia. Containment? Nato enlargement? Missle “defense” against Russia, err, Iran in Eastern Europe? The desperation has resulted in some grasping for some real straws.”

Nuke ‘em. Nuke them and get it over and done with already. The Irish, after hundreds of years of half-arsed struggle, finally copped in 1919 that the only way to deal with the Brits was shoot them in the head. Talk wouldnt work (maybe they didnt understand our accents..?) so the Paddies just got out their (stolen British) guns and went bang-bang. Worked too!
Mind you, if we’d stayed with them we might have some gold medals this week…..!

Aright, sorry for that poor attempt at humour. I think right now the rest of the world is going to just have to live with Russia and deal with it. Russia is now beholden to no-one really and after years of ”humiliation” in the 1990s (means no-one gave a shit about them) Russia has now got the cash and can throw a few shapes.
The only way to sideline Russia right now is to figure out nuclear fusion. The minute that has been achieved, Russia will be back in Romania-Czech Republic territory. They can be kicked off the UNSC and nobody will give a shit and be replaced by Ireland who deifinitely wont veto sanctions against Burma, North Korea, Sudan etc and can be replied upon to stand their round of pints.

Yes, I have been drinking:-)

Jason, personally I feel that if a clear majority of Georgians and Ukrainians want to join NATO, well, let them join if that is what NATO wants. Why, though, would NATO want to have Georgia as a member? Don’t you think that in the long term this will actually destabilize NATO? Currently the membership of Greece and Turkey are NATO’s weakest links. However, if Georgia or Ukraine become members, they will become NATO’s weakest links.

“If I was Ukrainian, I would be keeping a close eye on the Crimea.”

If the clear majority of the residents of Crimea want Crimea to be part of Russia, then I’m all for Crimea rejoining Russia.

(BTW, I’m not talking as a pol. sci. type–I’m not one. FWIW, it always seemed wrong to me that Kant’s city is now part of Russia. Having virtually no Germans now, it’s probably too late for what used to be a great German city.)

Ger, I know you are sort of joking, but I think people overstate how much Russia neither cares nor needs the rest of the world (and Europe in particular). Among other things, the demographics of Russia is not conducive to aggressive expansionism. The people in the Kremlin may be ruthless jerks, but they are not stupid (which, of course, does not mean that they don’t make mistakes).

Isn’t Freeland a jew?

Me again before going out for a run and then some beers…

Just read in Kommersant an interview with the US Ambassador in Moscow. Interesting that he said that time and again the US warned Georgia not to attack. Also, he was trying hard (but not convincingly) to state that Kosovo was a totally sui generis situation that should not be compared to the South Ossetia and Abkhazia situation. Lastly, he actually admitted that Russia’s initial military response to Georgia’s attack was adequate (I think it was the first time I read that from a US official), but that Russia went too far by going into Georgia proper.

“Мы видим, что российские войска вполне обоснованно ответили на нападение на миротворцев РФ в Южной Осетии. Но теперь эти силы перешли на грузинскую землю, и территориальная целостность Грузии оказалась под угрозой.”

http://www.kommersant.ru/doc.aspx?DocsID=1014311

”Ger, I know you are sort of joking, but I think people overstate how much Russia neither cares nor needs the rest of the world (and Europe in particular).”

I dunno Kolya. In the most obvious sense, Russia is reliant on flogging a lot of gas and oil to the EU -but I guess the reverse is true too. The impression I do get from Russians though is that they one on the hand say they dont care how they are viewed by the outside world, but then on the other they go nuts when foreigners criticise the country and have a fixation with slagging off the West on tv. And at the moment are quite unhappy to be behind Britain in the medals table. These things are all vanities, which to be honest smack of paranoia and whilst I could be wrong, I do think that this paranoia does feed into things like Russia’s adventures in Ossetiya/Georgia and fury over ex-satellites jumping into bed with NATO and the US. Take the missile shield for example. There is simply no way that the shield will prevent a nuclear strike from hitting the US -the Russians have too many missiles, only the Lord Himself could stop them. And yet the Russians are having shit-fits over it, simply I believe cos its in Poland, an ex satellite. If the shield was in Tonga or Fiji doing the same job would they be getting as upset as they are? Maybe its not the fault of the Russian people, but the behaviour of the government, whilst not expansionist I guess, is certainly bullying and smacks of somebody trying to re-establish a position of power. And to be honest I think it looks pretty pathetic.

”Me again before going out for a run and then some beers… ”

there are few things sweeter than a pint or two on friday nite!

Crystia Freeland wrote \”Sale of the Century\” about Russia\’s late \’90s financial crises and the rise of the Oligarchs. I read it along with \”Casino Moscow\” by Bryzinski (sp?) and \”Godfather of the Kremlin\”. Once I was introduced to the topic, I just couldn\’t get enough. All were library books though, so I don\’t have them around for reference. But, as I remember Boris Berezovsky was one of her best sources for that book, and her conclusion was that the oligarchs\’ pillaging was a necessary evil for economic, and eventually, social progress. Kind of what she is saying now. Maybe she means the west should be backing Berezovsky in London? He\’s always up to some interesting stuff. The latest is his fight for the spoils accumulated by the recently and mysteriously dead Georgian oligarch, his chum and a former challenger to current prez of Georgia. What about this sideshow? Any dotted lines?

”BTW, I’m not talking as a pol. sci. type–I’m not one. FWIW, it always seemed wrong to me that Kant’s city is now part of Russia. Having virtually no Germans now, it’s probably too late for what used to be a great German city.)”

I thought Woland said that Kant was in Silovki? Or was it somewhere even more remote?

And what is a better expression of the brilliance of capitalism than when the state becomes the private property of the capitalists?

Erm, how about when the state does not become private property and is thus able to uphold the rule of law consistently and guarantee property rights, the two foundations without which capitalism cannot function?

“Erm, how about when the state does not become private property and is thus able to uphold the rule of law consistently and guarantee property rights, the two foundations without which capitalism cannot function?”

I think you have an idealistic, or atypical, definition of capitalism. Typically, it means a system in which a) “the means of production” are privately owned (rather, non-state-owned, since few major property owners are indivuals) and b) wage labor is the the main contributing force to production. Consistency of application of the rule of law and guaranteeing of property rights are norms for most economic systems. Thomas Aquinas wrote about this long before capitalism.

Really, I think you are using a definition of “capitalism” that means “capitalism the way it should be.” Obviously, you can have a corrupt capitalist system, but it is still capitalism.

“There is simply no way that the shield will prevent a nuclear strike from hitting the US -the Russians have too many missiles, only the Lord Himself could stop them. And yet the Russians are having shit-fits over it, simply I believe cos its in Poland, an ex satellite. ”

Two things.

First, Russian military planners, like all others, are paid to consider worst-case scenarios and to extrapolate. The worry is not what this base can do now, but what it can do in 5, 10, 20, 50 years.

Second, the main issue is that the base in question is positioned to gather intelligence on Russian territory. Or so I have been told.

“Lastly, he actually admitted that Russia’s initial military response to Georgia’s attack was adequate”

US Ambassador to Moscow: Russia Was Justified in Responding to Georgia
Attacks

22 August 2008, Friday

The former US Ambassador to Bulgaria John Beyrle, who is already in charge of the American Embassy in Moscow, said Russia was justified in responding to the Georgian attacks on the Russian peacekeepers in South Ossetia.

In an interview for the Russian newspaper Komersant, Beyrle points out the United States repeatedly tried to persuade the Georgian leadership not to make any offensive steps.

In his words both Russia and America had been trying to resolve the frozen conflicts on Georgia’s territory for a long time.

The Russian response to the shelling of the South Ossetian capital Tskhinvali by the Georgian forces was justified, according to Beyrle.

Yet, he makes it clear that after the initial stage of the conflict the Russian troops had penetrated deep into Georgia, and had
threatened the territorial integrity of the country.

“The feeling I get is that the US state dept has pretty much given up on the pipe dream of getting Russia to cooperate on anything at this point. Russia has proven itself to not be a honest broker.”

After 20 years of the US reneging on every promise made to Russian, all I can do after reading this is have another beer and hope I can forget I ever read it.

Yes, Ger, it’s Friday!

“(BTW, I’m not talking as a pol. sci. type–I’m not one. FWIW, it always seemed wrong to me that Kant’s city is now part of Russia. Having virtually no Germans now, it’s probably too late for what used to be a great German city.)”

Reading Kant’s Cliff Notes to the Critique of Pure Reason, aka the Prolegomena, when I was 20 was what made me start studying philosophy (instead of French lit, my first love) as an undergrad and then in grad school. I need to make a pilgrimage to Kaliningrad before I die.

And what is a better expression of the brilliance of capitalism than when the state becomes the private property of the capitalists?

Excuse me, and Gazprom, the biggest source of state revenues, is owned by whom now, a private capitalist or was expropriated to the state’s elites? That’s hardly how capitalism works. Your statement is ass backwards.

Russia is a totalitarian serfdom where those that amassed wealth pay bribe money and swear an allegiance to the corrupt siloviki at the top. There is probably more money off shore and in Swiss banks from Putin and his cronies than the combined wealth of the original oligarchs at this point. Somehow you’ve not caught up to that reality.

Bill Gates gets taxed. He doesn’t have his company expropriated at the whim of the state. He can hold any opinion or fund any political party that he wants. Nor is he vilified for becoming a wealthy man except by petty dullards.

In the Russian, the thug state owns the capitalists rather than the other way around.

Re:

“And what is a better expression of the brilliance of capitalism than when the state becomes the private property of the capitalists?”

I think we need to go easy on Sean. He’s obviously still under the spell of Jack London’s novel ‘Iron Heel’ he read in his youth. And I don’t blame him. It’s a fascinating work of fiction, both clueless and prophetic at the same time.

Yes, I’ve been drinking too…

C-M “Yet, he (US Ambasador to Moscow) makes it clear that after the initial stage of the conflict the Russian troops had penetrated deep into Georgia, and had
threatened the territorial integrity of the country.”

At a separate press conference he told journalists that the Russian reaction was “inappropriate” the current Western diplomatic buzzword, which means that it was legal and justified but excessive. He was asked what would have been appropriate. He gave an evasive reply.

The West will do nothing to Russia because Russia is legally in the right and all those that conspired to mount the coup in South Ossetia which certainly includes elements in the US administration, whatever the State department may say, are in the wrong. It is beginning to look as if the inner councils of NATO were in on the plot.

Finally they will do nothing because Russia is helping them solve their desperate lines of communications problem with Afghanistan by allowing overland transport of supplies. As Lavrov said the other day the fate of NATO is being decided in Afghanistan. There is of course much more to it than that but it is very important.

“…all those that conspired to mount the coup in South Ossetia which certainly includes elements in the US administration, whatever the State department may say, are in the wrong. It is beginning to look as if the inner councils of NATO were in on the plot.”

Come on, Robert, besides your penchant to blame everything on the US and fondness for conspiracies, what’s your evidence for that?

BTW, as you probably know, I also think that Russia’s response was justified and found the West’s reaction rather ridiculous (Prague 68! Budapest 56!)

[I wrote this comment elsewhere...]

Yep it does seem that Georgia’s military as well as President Saakashvili forgot to read their Sun Tzu for Dummies.

This is from the Financial Times:

“Georgia did not believe Russia would respond to its offensive in South Ossetia and was completely unprepared for the counter-attack, the deputy defence minister has admitted.
Batu Kutelia told the Financial Times that Georgia had made the decision to seize the South Ossetian capital of Tskhinvali despite the fact that its forces did not have enough anti-tank and air defences to protect themselves against the possibility of serious resistance.
“Unfortunately, we attached a low priority to this,” he said, sitting at a desk with the flags of Georgia and Nato (to which Georgia does not belong) crossed behind him. “We did not prepare for this kind of eventuality.”
The Georgian military felt there was only a low probability of a massive Russian counter-attack, despite the bloody way in which Russia destroyed Chechnya, on the other side of the Caucasus mountains, in two wars during the 1990s and the fact that separatists in South Ossetia and Abkhazia had Russian backing.”

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/0d8beefe-6fad-11dd-986f-0000779fd18c.html

Kolya “…all those that conspired to mount the coup in South Ossetia which certainly includes elements in the US administration, whatever the State department may say, are in the wrong. It is beginning to look as if the inner councils of NATO were in on the plot.”

Come on, Robert, besides your penchant to blame everything on the US and fondness for conspiracies, what’s your evidence for that?

Yes I admit I rather enjoyed the emotive words that i am not allowed to use in the workaday world. However to answer your question we now know that the US knew what Saakashvili was up to. They have admitted it presumably because they could not plausibly deny it. Remember when this spat irrupted the narrative was that Saakashvili was nuts and the US knew nothing despite the intimate links of the US military with the Georgian army. Apparently they have liaison officers down to battalion level. Therefore as anyone who has had the slightest experience of the military will tell you they could not possibly have been in ignorance of the build up that went on. It is a very small step from there to noticing that a considerable NATO excercise “Rapid response” wound up days if not hours before the attack. How is it possible that the NATO officers present did not know what was in the works? If they knew and said nothing -why? We shall see. The dynamics of truth will operate and the Russians may well have something to say if it suits them because if anybody knows what was going on they do.

As to the legal points that is much easier. NATO the EU and the US have already conceded that Russia was entitled to react by the use of the phrase “inappropriate response”. End of argument. Sarkozy negotiated a deal which put everything back to where it was before Georgian attack and the Russian response. What the MSM is skirting round like a turd in a swimming pool and not telling us is that therefore the agreements before that date can be held ot apply. The Russians are now saying thanks very much we will use the 1999 agreement which is why they dont need to go retreat so far. I spent yesterday talking to the French Foreign office. Suffice it to say that a certain Monsieur Chevalier has now said publicly that we now need a UN resolution to clarify what was agreed in the “Moscow Accords” would you believe. What was agreed was very simple but totally vague. The devil is in article 5 measures of security Sarkozy tried to change it afterwards in a letter but Medvedev is as sharp a lawyer as Sarko and Saakashvili.

I am a bit busy but watch out for the words to the affect that the “Russians are not abiding by the ceasefire”. The Russians saying they don’t need to and talking about earlier agreements. This is lawfare not warfare.

I find it difficult not to criticise the US for everything simply because they tamper with everything. If they did less they would attract less criticism. As a contemporary historian I note that it is gradually emerging that a great many of what were considered conspiracy theories are being confirmed as only too true. In haste. Back to work now.

Hey, Ger, if you like to keep score, in my opinion the best measure of a country’s Olympic prowess is to tally the medals by population.

Below is the site that compares countries according to their medal/per million ratio. Gold medals (leaders are Jamaica, Bahrain, Estonia); total medals (leaders are Bahamas, Jamaica, Slovenia); and (my favorite) by weighted score (4 of gold, 2 for silver, 1 for bronze) (leaders are Jamaica, Bahamas, Bahrain).

In all those the score of the big three are very mediocre, with Russia leading, then the US and China last. For example, according to the weighted score, Russia is in 34th place, the US 42 and China 64. To Tim’s delight the UK scores ahead of the big three.

http://simon.forsyth.net/olympics.html#TMPM

I disagree with the notion that penny suggested, namely that Bill Gates does not have Microsoft expropriated by the state. Not too long ago, the state wanted to break Microsoft up, correctly seeing it as a monopoly. All of a sudden lobbyists in Washington D.C were living in the land of milk and honey by greasing the palms of politicians left and right. Bribery is a way of life in Russia, as it is here. We simply hide the fact by retaining high priced lawyers and lobbyists to do our dirty work for us. Bill Gates dropped a few billion dollars on lobbyists and the war on malaria in Africa, and all was forgiven. On another note, I agree that NATO must have known Georgia was about to attack Ossetia. They are simply saving face by not admitting foreknowledge. Had Georgia succeeded, they would be clucking about like a mother hen and not screaching like a startled rooster. I think the tide has turned against NATO.

US/NATO possible knowledge of Georgian intentions doesn’t incriminate them in any way.

Strictly hypothetically, I may know a person that has a gambling problem. One day that person mentions to me,

“I want to go to the casino and gamble a little.”

I say, “Don’t”.

“Just a little”

“Don’t”

In few days,

“I went to the casino and gamble away all my savings, and now I need help!”

And I say, “No! Well, Ok, I stop buy and bring you some food.”

The same happened to Georgia. They planned use of military force. They were told not to use military force repeatedly and they didn’t listen. In the aftermath they begged for help and got some staples to survive by, and that’s all.

Thanks for the reply, Robert. I’m still skeptical about the US and NATO knowing (without trying to prevent it) about Georgia’s attack. I have no proof of it, except that it was obvious from the beginning that the attack was reckless and badly planned. I cannot believe that the US military or NATO officers would have approved of such a stupid plan (perhaps a freelancer who decided not to inform his superiors, but that’s a different scenario.)

For Kolya, if you think that the US, or NATO, for that matter, could not possibly be stupid enough to pre-approve Georgia’s invasion into Ossetia, look how well George W Bush planned for the predictable looting of Bagdad after the initial invasion, or how Paul Bremer simply dismissed thousands of Saddam troops, or how they left tons of explosives unguarded in the dessert sun. These folks in charge are simply overgrown children who have become convinced of their own self-importance. One of them said “we create reality while you merely record it” These folks are ripe for a fall of historic proportions and it may be happening, now.

The US is not omnipotent, as much as its enemies may think it is. The CIA is a sad, sad joke. When is the last time it was right about anything. Also, the US has no real control over what its allies do, since it is not a empire, in the strict definition of the word. If Canada decided to invade Iran tomorrow, there is nothing the US could do about it over the short term.

“Jason, personally I feel that if a clear majority of Georgians and Ukrainians want to join NATO, well, let them join if that is what NATO wants. Why, though, would NATO want to have Georgia as a member? Don’t you think that in the long term this will actually destabilize NATO? Currently the membership of Greece and Turkey are NATO’s weakest links. However, if Georgia or Ukraine become members, they will become NATO’s weakest links.”

I agree, the current leadership in Georgia is borderline nuts. While corruption in Ukraine is still an issue, they seem to be more sober though. When I first heard about accepting both countries into NATO, I was skeptical it would ever happen. Just too close to Russia, and just to big a can of worms. I think the US was happy that Germany and Italy were putting up resistance to acceptance. But once Russia crossed Georgia’s border, the switch was thrown, and all of a sudden it became clear Russia had not changed since the end of the Cold War. At least that is my interpretation based on comments from US gov’t officials.

Look, Saak was/is an idiot. If Russia had occupied just South Ossetia, the West would have said/done nothing significant. From what I have read of Georgian accounts, when the story was just about Georgia attacking South Ossetia, many Georgians were critical of their own gov’t. But when Russia started boming Poti and Gori, they rallied to support the gov’t. The US encountered the same phenomenon in Iraq.

“After 20 years of the US reneging on every promise made to Russian, all I can do after reading this is have another beer and hope I can forget I ever read it.”

Okay, your chance to school me, other than the ABM treaty, what has the US reneged on. The ABM treaty was a treaty b/w opponents locked in a weapons race. Once the Cold War had ended, and there was no more weapons race, the ABM treaty became meaningless. Russia pulled out of the CFE treaty, and I don’t remember a whole lot of wailing and gnashing of teeth from the EU, at least not as much as over the current circumstances. My interpretation on why that was the case, was before, Russia was not considered a credible threat to peace in Europe, such that the CFE wasn’t really needed. Now with Georgia, it is.

Really, I think you are using a definition of “capitalism” that means “capitalism the way it should be.” Obviously, you can have a corrupt capitalist system, but it is still capitalism.

Erm, I am not defining capitalism. Read again what I wrote, and what I was responding too.