There is a cease fire on paper. There isn’t a cease fire in reality. Russia’s moving toward Tbilisi. Russia isn’t moving toward Tbilisi. Tomāto. Tomato. Potāto. Potato. Let’s call the whole thing off because checking CNN for updates on Georgia is liable to make your head spin. Every small Russian action is instantly viewed as part of a larger design. The latest evidence that sparked fears of an assault on Tbilisi? A Russian convoy that was heading toward the Georgian capital but then turned off the road back to South Ossetia. Saakashvilli interpreted this as Russian forces “encroaching upon the capital.” Thankfully, even CNN is starting to not be so easily fooled. CNN Correspondent Matthew Chance was traveling with said convoy, and though he couldn’t say where it was going, he did report that it didn’t get any
resistance from Georgian soldiers, and it was possible that the Russians were on a scouting mission to choose a buffer zone between the breakaway region of South Ossetia and Georgian territory. Chance described the flag-waving Russians as relaxed.
Not the atmosphere you would expect for soldiers mounting an assault.
Still Saakshvilli was persistent, perhaps trying to save face from a military debacle and that embarrassing video of him running for cover in Gori out of fear that he was the target of Russian bombing. “This is the kind of cease-fire that, I don’t know, they had with Afghanistan I guess in 1979,” he told CNN. “There is no cease-fire, they [Russian forces] are moving around.”
Perhaps the Russian forces aren’t the ones Georgians should be worried about. The real worry should be the so-called “irregulars” that are wreaking havoc in the wake of Russian armored columns. The Guardian‘s Luke Harding reports that these irregulars, who according locals are comprised of “Chechens, Cossacks and Ossetians,” are engaging payback.
“Eyewitnesses say they are looting, killing and burning. These irregulars have killed three people and set fire to villages. They have been taking away young boys and girls,” said Harding, watching smoke rise from another village, Karaleti.
He said he had witnessed people fleeing in the direction of Tbilisi. “For three hours there were people fleeing in cars, I saw one with 11 people and a Lada with eight people in it.” He had also seen people fleeing on a horse and cart and a tractor.
Though the Guardian adds that “eyewitness claims could not be immediately verified,” I wouldn’t be surprised if irregulars, especially Ossetian militias, are extracting some vengeance. The last few days have produced a Manichean atmosphere where violence is quickly becoming a whirlpool of reciprocity.
Human Rights Watch confirms these reports of Ossetian vengence:
Numerous houses in the villages of Kekhvi, Nizhnie Achaveti, Verkhnie Achaveti and Tamarasheni had been burnt down over the last day – Human Rights Watch researchers saw the smoldering remnants of the houses and household items. The villages were virtually deserted, with the exception of a few elderly and incapacitated people who stayed behind either because they were unable to flee or because they were trying to save their belongings and cattle.
“The remaining residents of these destroyed ethnic Georgian villages are facing desperate conditions, with no means of survival, no help, no protection, and nowhere to go,” said Tanya Lokshina at Human Rights Watch.
In the village of Nizhnie Achaveti, Human Rights Watch researchers spoke to an elderly man who was desperately trying to rescue his smoldering house using two half-empty buckets of dirty water brought from a spring. He told Human Rights Watch that the vast majority of the residents, including his family, fled the village when active fighting between Georgian forces and South Ossetian militias broke out on August 8, but he decided to stay to look after the cattle. He said members of the South Ossetian militia came to his house on August 11, and tried to take away some household items. When he protested, they set the house on fire and left. The man said he had no food or drinking water; his hands were burned and hair was singed – apparently as he was unsuccessfully trying to extinguish the fire – and he appeared to be in a state of shock. He said that there were about five to ten elderly and sick people left in the village, all in a similar desperate condition, and many of the houses were burned.
In the village of Kekhvi, many houses were set on fire between 6.30 pm and 7.30 pm on August 12 – they were ablaze as Human Rights Watch researchers moved along the road. Two elderly women from Kekhvi were weeping as they told Human Rights Watch about what happened in the village. One of them explained that the members of South Ossetian militias passed by the village and stopped at her house and “threw something” that set it on fire. She did not manage to rescue anything from the house and at the time of the interview could not even enter the house as it was still burning. She had no money on her and did not know if she could survive in this situation.
Human Rights Watch researchers also saw armed Ossetian militia members in camouflage fatigues taking household items – furniture, television sets, heaters, suitcases, carpets, and blankets – out of houses in the village of Nizhnie Achaveti and loading them into their trucks. Explaining the looters’ actions, an Ossetian man told Human Rights Watch, “Of course, they are entitled to take things from Georgians now – because they lost their own property in Tskhinvali and other places.”
Hopefully, this terror of the “irregulars” and Ossetian militias will not push things beyond control. That is assuming they haven’t already.
In Abkhazia, the Russian advance has embolden the Abkhaz military. Abkhaz forces have taken the initiative, without the aid of Russian forces, to expel the Georgians troops from the region. A symbolic turning of the tables has already commenced. “Entering the village, the Abkhaz military men first took off the Georgian symbols from the building of the administration hoisting the flag of the breakaway republic instead,’ reported Kommersant. Even Shota Utiashvili, the Georgian Interior Minister, was forced to admit that “Today, we’ve lost Kodori.”
According the Russia Today, Abkhazia was to be next on the Georgian list. A map found in a Georgia command vehicle are believed to show plans to invade Abkhazia.
Abkhaz Foreign Minister Sergey Shamba apparently intends to make this Georgian loss permanent. The taking of Kodori occurred after Medvedev’s declaration to cease operations, a fact that irked the Georgians even more. But Medvedev’s order didn’t seem to matter much to Shamba. As far as he was concerned the Russian President’s words simply don’t apply. “The words of the Russian President regarded Russia’s armed forces. Dmitri Medvedev’s decrees have no power in Abkhazia’s army,” he said [Emphasis mine]. Again, this emphatic “have no power” is a reminder that this conflict includes two parties that seems to be excluded from all the diplomatic wrangling between recognized nation states. Namely, the South Ossetians and the Abkhazians. I would imagine that as long as they are excluded, their voices will sing the songs of retribution.
Then there are the journalists. War is always hell for journalists as their craft and lives fall victim to the chaos of violence. So far, Reporters Without Borders named four journalists who have been reported killed in Georgia.
Cameraman Stan Storimans of Dutch TV station RTL-4 was killed and reporter Jeroen Akkermans, the station’s Moscow correspondent, was injured during Russian bombing of the Georgian town of Gori last night. Earlier yesterday, a Georgian reporter working for the Russian edition of Newsweek and his driver were killed when a shell hit their vehicle in Gori’s main square.
Yesterday’s deaths came just a day after two other reporters – Giga Chikhladze, the head of Alania TV, and Alexander Klimchuk, the head of the Caucasus Press Images agency and a correspondent for Itar-Tas – were killed in the breakaway republic of South Ossetia, apparently in an attempt to pass a roadblock manned by Ossetian pro-independence fighters.
That is not all. Russian media reports that two Russian journalists, Vyacheslav Kochetkov, a photographer for Ekspert and Igor Naidenov, a correspondent for Russian Reporter, have disappeared in Georgia. Aleksandr Kots, a special correspondent for Komsomolskaya Pravda was wounded, as was Zadok Yehezkeli, an Israeli reporter for Yedioth Ahronot. He sustained serious injuries after being hit in the shoulder by a bullet. Two Turkish reporters were wounded after being attacked by Russian and Ossetian troops. Two Czech reporters had their car and equipment stolen by Ossetian soldiers. And what of the Ossetian and Georgian journalists?
The reporters looking for a safe story now have an outlet. The Russian military has reved up its PR machine with hopes to reverse the dismal portrayal of Russian actions in the foreign press. Enter Colonel Igor Konashenko. Today, Konashenko gave a guided tour of Tskhninvali for foreign journalists. “Look around you,” the Russian officer instructed the tour group. “A lot of women and children died here. Who do we blame? You know the answer.”
Indeed we do. And so do the Ossetian militias.
“But I doubt Russia’s motivation was truly humanitarian, and if you think it was, you need your head examined.”
More of that cognitive dissonance I see. It can’t have been humanitarian because — I KNOW IT, DAMMITI! I KNOOOOOOOWWWWWWWW!!!!
Ya know, ger, you’re kind of reminding me of myself a few years ago when I was stridently antiamerican. I thought everything the US does must have some kind of nefarious ulterior motive — I actually believed that “they’re invading Afghanistan to build a pipeline!” crap. It ain’t true.
Kolya — you were a military guy. From what you know, how would you assess the Russian military’s effectivess in Georgia? Thanks.
Kolya,
If you look at all the saber rattling that Putin has done over the last few years, there is a real, deeply felt concern that Russia is not going to stop until Georgia is all but a vassal state. Ukraine will then be next on the list, if it is successful in Georgia in getting regime change.
Putin has made it known previously, that Russia losing its empire (with the breakup of the USSR) was a catastrophic event. Can anyone be faulted for believing that Russia would like its empire back?
There is a certain amount of collective shame in the West over not standing up to the USSR during Yalta, Hungary, Czechoslovakia, etc. There is the fear among many that the US is going to stiff an ally again over this matter. Georgia has been a strong (and yes probably opportunistic) ally with the US in Iraq. For the US to turn its back on Georgia now would make the US look undependable. It doesn’t matter if Georgia started it (although I think the Russian media has greatly exaggerated the events in S.O.) and deserves what it is getting from Russia, they are an ally. I would agree that Saakashvilli is a dork, but to paraphrase Cordell Hull, “He may be a dork, but he is our dork”. Most of the hawks in the US will consider anything less than American boots on the ground in Georgia to be a betrayal of that country.
If Russia is in Georgia for purely peacekeeping reasons, then they will have no problem allowing American peacekeepers and humanitarian assistance by way of the US military to enter Georgia. If that happens, all will be fine, and the relationship b/w the US and Russia, as pathetic as it is, will not be damaged any further. I am not very hopeful this will happen though.
“Putin has made it known previously, that Russia losing its empire (with the breakup of the USSR) was a catastrophic event.”
Category mistake. Putin made no reference to Russia’s empire.
a Few gruesome pics ahead:
http://www.navoine.ru/forum/viewtopic.php?p=551#551
Most notable, BMP-2 with ‘Cechnya Yamadayevstis Vostok’, armored british landrovers (perfidious albion providing armaments? It’s the first I’ve heard, but with hindsight, no surprise), US anti-tank weapons (picture instructions included) and some foreign armored personnel carrier.
“There is a certain amount of collective shame in the West over not standing up to the USSR during Yalta, Hungary, Czechoslovakia, etc.”
I understand this feeling, but it doesn’t make any sense. Risking confrontation with the USSR wouldn’t have been noble — it would have been stupid. In Yalta, of all places.
”Ya know, ger, you’re kind of reminding me of myself a few years ago when I was stridently antiamerican. I thought everything the US does must have some kind of nefarious ulterior motive — I actually believed that “they’re invading Afghanistan to build a pipeline!” crap. It ain’t true.”
Chris it isnt true. I’m not stridently anti-Russian. Genuinely. But Russia has, ahem, ‘form’ in the Caucuses, and, to say the least, I would view everything they do there with great suspicion.
”More of that cognitive dissonance I see. It can’t have been humanitarian because — I KNOW IT, DAMMITI! I KNOOOOOOOWWWWWWWW!!!!”
Chris that’s a pretty cheap one and if it was a rugby match the linesmen wouldnt be raising their flags from behind the goal. It wasnt humanitarian – from what has happened subsequent to the Georgian defeat in Ossetiya, it is obvious to me that the Russians are trying to seriously fuck up the Georgians for quite some time into the future, and aiding the Ossetiyans was simply a convenient pretext to do it. That you choose to believe otherwise is your own choice, obviously.
”If Russia is in Georgia for purely peacekeeping reasons, then they will have no problem allowing American peacekeepers and humanitarian assistance by way of the US military to enter Georgia. If that happens, all will be fine, and the relationship b/w the US and Russia, as pathetic as it is, will not be damaged any further. I am not very hopeful this will happen though.”
It will be interesting to see if that happens. I doubt it though, considering the hissy fits Moscow had been having over the presence of a few drill US drill instructors and uniforms in Georgia already.
“subsequent to the Georgian defeat in Ossetiya, it is obvious to me that the Russians are trying to seriously fuck up the Georgians”
You are mixing up cause and effect. The Georgian military is being disarmed to prevent them in engaging in similar military adventures in the future. You’re acting like Saak just made a little goof. THEY JUST SHELLED A CITY IN A SURPRISE ATTACK DURING A CEASE-FIRE, a cease-fire they used to buy time to said up heavy weapons. You’re going to trust these fuckers? No, you’re going to neuter them.
“it is obvious to me” is not an argument.
As far as Ossetians go, Russia’s form in the Caucasus has historically been defending them. Just ask the Ossetians.
“the hissy fits Moscow had been having over the presence of a few drill US drill instructors and uniforms in Georgia already.”
Ger, the presence of US backing such as “drill instructors” (which is not what they were) is the precise reason Saak felt he could get away with what he did. Do you not see an issue here?
Are other forum posters allowed to attribute points to both CM & Irishman? We could then tally them up and see who gets the gold medal and who gets the silver!
I’ve noticed that some websites include the ability to give a thumbs up/down to posts or ‘recommended’.
Personally, I’d both give you a tv show. What was the name of those two characters in the Muppet Show who used to hurl abuse at each other and the show again???! :>
”You are mixing up cause and effect”
No, you are mixing up meaning. The Georgians had been run out of Ossetiya by sunday/monday. Its now thursday and Russian troops are still outside Gori, and are believed to be between Gori and Tbilisi. If you consider that an ‘effect’ of Russia’s ‘peacekeeping’ well its your own business. But I do not.
”it is obvious to me” is not an argument.”
I never said it was. Its simply my point of view. The fact that you dont see that Russia is no more there for peacekeeping then they are for the scenery is I think a result of a severe over-exposure to Russian tv, too much smetana on your food and a hatred for the US. Thankfully I have no such ills
”Ger, the presence of US backing such as “drill instructors” (which is not what they were) is the precise reason Saak felt he could get away with what he did. Do you not see an issue here?”
What I see there is paranoid Russia not allowing a neighbour to develop their own foreign relations. Georgia does not belong to Russia anymore. It is simply not Russia’s business what Georgia chooses to do with NATO. Your point also ignores the fact that Georgia may have been deliberately provoked – we dont know that yet, true, but i wouldnt be suprised if it comes out in the wash. I’m not condoning Georgia’s actions (response?)but Russia’s response does not appear to have been measured to the task they claim to be performing. It looks like they are trying to ruin Georgia completely.
” What was the name of those two characters in the Muppet Show who used to hurl abuse at each other and the show again???!”
Chrisius the Fox and Irishman the Moose?
”Personally, I’d both give you a tv show. What was the name of those two characters in the Muppet Show who used to hurl abuse at each other and the show again???! :>”
I think we’re suffering from Averko withdrawal and in the absence of Mike we’re tearing strips off each other for amusement. And I’m Irish – we’d fight with oursleves if we had no-one else to argue with.
In fairness I take back the smetana/Russian tv comment. Offside.
Or maybe you do eat smetana? FUUUU.
Only if forced to. You know what, though? Salo’s not half bad.
“And I’m Irish – we’d fight with oursleves if we had no-one else to argue with.”
Is that what you tell your wife when she comes home to find you drunk in front of the porn channel next to an open tube of grease?
The Internet, yet again delivering crisp cultural understanding and peace:
Statler & Waldorf:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Statler_&_Waldorf
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=14njUwJUg1I
It’s up to you to decide who is who…
Thanks for pointing out Mike has not been around. I knew there was something missing but couldn’t quite put my finger on it.
I was thinking more of that old SNL skit.
“Ger, you ignorant slut.”
Here is a solution to the problem, to make everyone happy, I propose that Saak be replaced with the journalist in the following video:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4eyQ5Maqf80
Yeah, Chris I agree that nothing could be done, but the events were still demoralizing. The empire quip was an “interpretation” of his remarks. I understand others could have a different interpretation of those remarks.
”And I’m Irish – we’d fight with oursleves if we had no-one else to argue with.”
Is that what you tell your wife when she comes home to find you drunk in front of the porn channel next to an open tube of grease?”
Blatantly caught! She saw through it though. Bloody Russkayas! Funny enough though Russian women would be offended if they caught you, simply cos its OTHER women you were looking at. Irish women would just call me a pervert.
I actually DID catch my father looking at porn a few weeks ago. I was staying overnite at home, my Mum was in bed and I just went to the kitchen for water and here he is in the sitting room watching ‘Badly Dubbed Porn’, this atrocious comedy programme on satellite that does actually show quite a bit of nudity. He jumped up, switched off the tv and announced blushing “I’m going to bed now”
I said ”you dirty old man. Caught by the nuts”
75 years of age and still looking. And he has only one eye that works.
“Ger, you ignorant slut.”
As a Scotsman I knew in NZ used to say, ”I love sluts man. Sluts are just brrrrilliant”
”Thanks for pointing out Mike has not been around. I knew there was something missing but couldn’t quite put my finger on it.”
Yeah he dont come here around no more. I see that lately he’s been under the cosh a bit at his Lying About Russia page. Tempting though it is, I havent joined in – there are enough giving him a hard time there as it is.
”Only if forced to. You know what, though? Salo’s not half bad.”
I had pelemeni in a pseudo-Russian restaurant here in Limerick a few months back (the wife cannot cook, even if it meant the gulag, hence the lack of home pelmeni) and inspite of my saying ”pazhaluista, bez smetani” it still came out covered in the stuff. I ate it, but it amazes me how Russians cannot fathom that some people dont like smetana, and look at you as if to say ”the poor foreigner, he doesnt know any better. Pile on the white stuff there Nadya”
I’d just like to reiterate for Russian readers that my moanbagging about the war is not down to any Russophobia -it really isnt.
“Kolya — you were a military guy. From what you know, how would you assess the Russian military’s effectivess in Georgia? Thanks.”
Hey Chris, don’t embarrass me. My qualifications as a military expert are very very slim. I served as a US infantry grunt for a couple of years and the highest rank I ever reached was corporal (E-4). This means that my highest command was as a team leader–five soldiers including myself (half a squad). I can brag, though, that I did qualify as expert in rifle (not that easy) and hand grenade (not that hard). (Incidentally, the proportion of NCOs increased dramatically in the US Army. Judging from the photos, I get the impression that about half of the soldiers are already NCOs–perhaps because so many of them reenlist.) In any event, considering my somewhat unconventional lifestyle, friends find some incongruity in that I volunteered to be a soldier and that I often read about war and military history. Perhaps I should blame my genes (from both sides, maternal and paternal).
Frankly, from the little I know about the military operations in Georgia, I cannot give much of an assessment. Although the performance of the Russian air force was not at all impressive, it seems that indeed the Russian ground forces performed much better than in the 1990s. As I wrote before, I have no problems with Russian troops moving beyond the borders of South Ossetia and Abzakhia (as long as they don’t linger and move back into the enclaves sooner rather than later).
One of the reasons it’s hard to assess how much did the Russian army improve is that they fought against an enemy that folded surprisingly quickly. Assuming the same number of troops and equipment, but if instead of Georgians they were Chechens, how would have things turned out? Judging from the number of military casualties the Georgians themselves reported, I can only conclude that they didn’t resist much before fleeing and abandoning much of their equipment. Not much of a test for the Russian army (just like fighting against Saddam’s army was not much of a test for the US forces.)
I’m disappointed and disheartened by the activities of all those irregular (whether Ossetians, Chechens or Cossacks). They should not be given any free rein to pillage and burn. As I wrote, the Russians should capture and try anyone implicated in such activities. I doubt it will happen, though. (But, hey, I may be wrong.) And this brings me to another reason why the Russian forces should move back to South Ossetia, Abzakhia and Russia proper as soon as possible: Judging from Chechnya, I would not yet trust the Russian troops to conduct themselves as disciplined professionals while occupiers. For young soldiers to be an occupier is incredibly boring work. Combine boredom with the sense of empowerment weapons give, and add alcohol to mix. Not a good formula. An occupying force should consist of highly disciplined units professionally committed to protect the civilian population.
My apologies for rambling so much….
Considering that these people all have guns and everybody thinks he’s Rambo and they have a culture of revenge killing, I would say it’s a bit more than just opportunistic looting.
So would I. The South Ossetians have been waiting for the opportunity to kick the Georgians out for years, and now they have that opportunity they are taking it. I doubt their actions are motivated primarily by recent activities.
The russian military could of course have sent in the Chechens first as a shock force…
Would the Chechens fight on behalf of the Russians? And even if they did, I doubt the Russians would want to mobilise a Chechen “army”. As Sean has already said, and it is an important point, once an army is mobilised, stopping them is difficult. The last thing Russia needs is a Chechen army who is mobilised and has temporarily run out of people to fight.
“My apologies for rambling so much….”
Not at all! Thank you very much.
My understanding is that the soldiers in Georgia are not the regular conscript army, but rather professional combat veterans.
“Would the Chechens fight on behalf of the Russians?”
Aren’t they?
“The South Ossetians have been waiting for the opportunity to kick the Georgians out for years, and now they have that opportunity they are taking it. I doubt their actions are motivated primarily by recent activities.”
I do not think the motives are mutually exclusive.
That AEI panel on C-span I mentioned previously had a guy on it who was previously involved in training the Georgian army. What he said that I found interesting was as follows:
1. The Georgian military has been trained by the US primarily for counter-terrorism type of of operations. They have not been trained in conventional warfare, because it was thought that it would be seen as too confrontational towards the Russians, etc.
2. The US original got involved in training the Georgian army after 9/11, to help them clean out the Pankisi Gorge, which Georgia had the will to do, but not the means or training. It was one area where the US saw a common GWOT interest between the US, Georgia and Russia. As of today, the operations in the Pankisi gorge have been successful and the area is quiet and under control.
3. The Georgian army still has not got around to defining a cohesive doctrine for their military. They were in the process of do this when the current hostilities went off.
Basically, the overall gist I got from his presentation was that the Georgian military wasn’t so much a military as it was a glorified police force.
OT, but C-Span has been doing a bang up job on the conflict in Georgia. They had a Brookings panel on today, and the press briefings over the last 24 hours from the Sec of State and Defense have been very interesting. They also re-broadcasted some RT coverage as well yesterday.
Thanks for the interesting comment, Jason.
I just read a very interesting account written by Ruslan Yarmoliuk, an Ukrainian journalist who was in Tsinvali when the Georgians started the attack and got stuck there until the Russians reoccupied the city. The guy writes in a very matter of fact style. I assume he’s a trustworthy source, but I don’t know anything about him.
If you read Russian, check it out:
http://www.telekritika.ua/media-suspilstvo/view/2008-08-13/40007
A last one before going to bed. A couple of comments ago I wrote that it was strange that the Georgian started a chaotic retreat after suffering very light casualties (according to official Georgian sources). Well, maybe the casualties they suffered were considerably higher than the Georgian are so far admitting. It’s hard to tell with all those lies and misinformation (from all sides). I suppose that in a few weeks we’ll have a much better picture of what happened.
I already knew all that, Jason.
My understanding is that the Georgians were equipped and trained for counterinsurgency, not dealin with armored tank columns, so when they saw one coming down the pass, they ran away. I would have.
“Well, maybe the casualties they suffered were considerably higher than the Georgian are so far admitting.”
I’ve been hearing this too. It’s starting to look less like a retreat and more like a rout.
Check out this clip from Fox News: http://www.antiwar.com/blog/2008/08/14/american-girl-interviewed-on-fox-news-we-were-running-from-georgian-troops-thank-you-to-russian-troops/
American media are AWESOME!!!!
Sean’s spam filter won’t let me post a link, but has anybody seen that clip on Fox News where the fuckhead interviewer interviews people from Tskhinvali and cuts them off when they blame Georgia?
American media are AWESOME!!!!
Jason “Basically, the overall gist I got from his presentation was that the Georgian military wasn’t so much a military as it was a glorified police force.”
This is what Edward Lucas had to say before he went of on holiday for two weeks somewhere the internet does not work.
“Thanks to American military aid, Georgia’s 18,000-strong armed forces are the best-trained and equipped fighting force in the Caucasus.” For some reason he forgot to mention the Israeli training. I hate to be fair but he did go on to say,
“But it is one thing for them to defeat the raggle-taggle militia of a tinpot place like South Ossetia (population 70,000). It is another for a country of less than five million people to take on Russia (population 142 million).”
There were fairly widespread statements to the effect that the Georgian military were pretty good.
Pravda, hinting broadly that US personnel were present in the Georgian attack, the other day, implied that black soldiers look green seen through a night sight. Does anybody know if this is true. Georgian prisoners are being interrogated at the moment. It will be very interesting to see what emerges.
Robert, please be aware that Pravda.Ru is not Pravda.
I think these “US soldiers” Pravda.ru is talking about are probably actually Georgians dressed in US uniforms (assuming that reports I have heard that they did this are true).
C M Here is an interesting link to a Stratfor analysis which you may not have seen.
http://www.stratfor.com/weekly/russo_georgian_war_and_balance_power
They are very close to the Pentagon and say that the US must have known about the attack and the prepared Russian response.
You have probably seen the preliminary Polish Russian agreement that has just been announced. Is this what the US wanted? But impossible that Putin did not foresee that as well?
My opinion of Stratfor is very low.
I had only recently come across them but they were puffed up as something great. However I am bound to say that they did not appear to answer their own question as to why, given the circumstances they themselves outlined, Saakashvili made his move. Even so they seem to make a stack of money selling their inside knowledge.
I am no fan of Stratfor, but I have to say, their analysis of the situation, which I heard on NPR, was leaps and bounds more informative and sober than most anything else I’ve heard in the mainstream media on this side of the pond, which is usually something along the lines of “Hitler, Stalin … Putin. Here we go again.”
http://www.wbez.org/content.aspx?audioID=27675
I haven’t looked at them recently, but a few years ago they had been predicting the imminent demise of Russia since 1999.
“However I am bound to say that they did not appear to answer their own question as to why, given the circumstances they themselves outlined, Saakashvili made his move.”
I think it probably has something to do with something happening in Baijing beginning with the letter O.
Moreover, I think one can go overboard with the looking at the reason for the time events happen. All events have to happen sometime. “Why did Robert order pizza at 8 pm, when he could have done it any time before? Did he get a signal?”
Another myth punctured:
Kids, not Russian government, attacking Georgia’s Net, says researcher
http://news.cnet.com/8301-1009_3-10016152-83.html?tag=nefd.pop
Quelle suprise. Non!
I’m an American with no personal interest in the region other that it’s world news. I do, however, like to think I can read the news through unfiltered glasses, and keep out what makes most Americans appear stupid, and that is bias.
The US is going nuts here and the media has done a great job of spinning this as evil Russia. Here’s an outline of how I gather events happened:
Georgia either thought it could win a battle against Russia, or didn’t think Russia would respond, so it aggressively attacked the separatist region of South Ossetia.
South Ossetia is a region that looks favorably on Russia, and maybe even looked to them as protectors. (was there an agreement in place?)
There was already anecdotal evidence that Georgia maybe was not known for it brains because it was the only nation on earth with a favorable view of Bush.
Anyway, Georgia attacks, and Russia has a decision to make: do we help out our friends, or do we turn our backs and let our friends fall to a pro-western government?
Russia decides to help out, swoops in, and efficiently pushes Georgian troops back to Georgia, and adds a little incentive for them not to regroup and attack again.
So far, do I have the events somewhat correct? Does anyone want to inject any propaganda at this point? No? Fine.
So, the US media, taking their direction from the White House, start spinning this a naked Russian aggression. The White House is thinking about a few things:
1) Georgia’s leader is an abject moron, similar to Bush.
2) Georgia just kissed their chance at NATO membership goodbye.
3) Bush’s popularity in Georgia just went down.
4) NATO is likely to make the admissions standards much, much tougher because adding volatile nations greatly increases the chances of a forced confrontation. (especially with dumb-as-bricks leaders).
5) Hopes for a missile shield just went bye-bye (I’ll talk about this in a moment)
6) They should have been working on a Tank and Artillery Shield instead.
7) Bush has ruined the future of another country. That now makes the US, Iraq, and Georgia as nations that will suffer for years.
Actually, I’m being presumptuous about Georgia. I have not seen evidence that Russia is going to torture Georgia. It’s just that if they wanted to go Western, then they are going to wait.
As for the missile shield, the US was quick to splash an agreement with Poland in the papers yesterday, but that was the old trick of putting good news on top of bad, even if the news is a lie. The agreement yesterday was between two people, not between two nations. They may as well agreed to resurrect Jesus, cure cancer, and stop hunger. Until the Polish parliament ratifies the agreement, it means nothing.
Now, why would Poland ratify the agreement? The missile shield is being touted as a defense against Iranian and Al Qaeda missiles. In other words, against imaginary threats. That would normally be OK, but it is complicated by the announced, very real threat of Russia taking severe actions against any country that hosts the shield. What ‘severe’ means is anyone’s guess, so let’s ask Georgia what they think it means.
The agreement also stated that the US would sign an agreement with Poland to protect it, and to build a military base there.
Now as a US citizen, I have to say that I never agreed to this. I was never even asked about it.
Hopefully Poland will look to the past to see what happens to their country when it is used as a battle theatre and decide the missile shield for imaginary missiles is not worth the risks of real tanks and artillery.
I’m calling it for Poland, which means the US has lost major face and influence all around on this one, and therefore is furiously trying to spin the news otherwise.
Look for it to do many stupid things in the coming weeks, all of which will hurt itself.
Anytime there is death and mass killings the spector of the world’s angst emerges…when all is said and done will Russia be justified in their actions… http://www.enewsreference.com/newspaper/russi.htm