Saakashvilli’s War
By Sean at 11 August, 2008, 10:13 am
How did Han Solo put it to Chewbacca after he was freed from carbonite in Return of the Jedi? Oh yeah, he said, “I–I’m out of it for a little while, everybody gets delusions of grandeur.” There I was in Israel with a self-imposed ban on blogging and war ignites between Russia and Georgia. In an instant, the information I was gathering on Russian immigrants and Israeli street kids suddenly appeared less relevant.
While Han Solo’s “delusions of grandeur” was meant to be ironic in Jedi, its current application to Georgia lacks ironic overtones. Just what was President Mikhail Saakashvili thinking when he sent Georgian troops into South Ossetia? Did he really think that Russia was going to sit by and twiddle its thumbs? Did he think that his paltry contribution of America’s War on Terror and its support for Georgia’s NATO membership was enough political capital for US save him? Was the move simply a cynical effort to propel Georgia’s international victimhood in the face of big bad Russia? Or was it a desperate attempt quell his own domestic travails by uniting the country against the external Other? Enquiring minds want to know.
Whatever the answers may be, one thing’s for sure: Saakashvilli fucked up. And fucked up bad. Trying to reestablish Georgian hegemony in South Ossetia with military force has only place his country in mortal danger. Now Georgia is at Russia’s mercy, and given how the Russians already think that Georgia is a child that needs a good spanking, the whipping might end up being worse than necessary just to prove a point. Kind of reminds me when my grandfather would get so infuriated, he would tell one of us, “Boy, go get me a switch from the tree.” It’s almost in a weird Oedipal way, by attacking South Ossetia, Saakashvilli was volunteering to pick the perfect switch for Daddy Russia to beat him with.
This is not to say that Russia hasn’t played the abusive Father in all this. You can cite, as many have, all of the Russia attempts to inflame the situation: supporting South Ossetian and Abkhazian rebels, issuing passports, and declaring itself Ossetia’s protector. Russia is the real power here and its using it to constantly poke Georgia.
But ultimately the blame game is rather boring. There just isn’t much analytical power in repeatedly saying, “It’s Russia’s fault!” “No, its Georgia’s fault!” If one wants to attribute blame then it might better to capture the situation as a dialectical Mobius strip and move on. This is what I think Charles King is trying to point to in his comment in the Christian Science Monitor. He writes:
Russia illegally attacked Georgia and imperiled a small and feeble neighbor. But by dispatching his own ill-prepared military to resolve a secessionist dispute by force, Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili has managed to lead his country down the path of a disastrous and ultimately self-defeating war.
Unfortunately, language must be presented linear. The more pro-Russian/Georgian reader will find fault and satisfaction in this statement. When read simply, Russia, by virtue of it being mentioned first, comes out the bigger aggressor, tempered by Saakashvilli’s brash and ill advised solution. I would suggest that the reader freely exchange the order of the sentences to escape determinism.
However, the main thing one should notice is that this effort to equally blame Russia and Georgia is predicated on a kind of colonial erasure. Namely, absent from this formulation are the South Ossetians themselves. Their agency is rendered invisible or worse reduced to the body upon which the larger powers dance. Perhaps we should redo the narrative to include them?
The reality is that South Ossetia is not alone in its aspirations for ethnic self-determination. The situation in South Ossetia, as with other places where political borders don’t align with ethnic ones, is kind of ethno-waste of modernity. When the Bolsheviks drew up its Republics, Autonomous Regions, and autonomous oblasts in 1936, the North Caucuses was an artificially crafted mosaic where political borders ran counter to (emergent) ethnic ones. The Ossetians where split politically into North and South, while their ethnicity remained unified. When the Soviet Union collapsed in 1991, the South Ossetians became one of the many internal Others for the Georgians to proclaim their new found nationalism. That is, Great Georgian Nationalism was predicated on its vicious denial to the Other. Brutality comenced. As Human Rights Watch reported in 1996,
Between 1989 and 1992, fighting flared in the South Ossetian A.O. and in Georgia between ethnic Ossetian paramilitary troops and Georgian Interior Ministry (MVD) units and paramilitaries. South Ossetia had demanded to secede, and Georgia cracked down on the renegade area by sending in troops. Approximately 100,000 ethnic Ossetians fled Georgia and South Ossetia, and another 23,000 Georgians headed in the other direction. One hundred villages were reportedly destroyed in South Ossetia. Also the North Ossetia-Georgian border went largely uncontrolled, providing an almost unhindered access point for weapons, fighters, and ammunition in both directions.
Since then South Ossetia has overwhelming approved seceding from Gerogia in two referendums, yet their right to self-determination remains ignored.
Contrary to Cold War Triumphalists, neo-Hegelian End of Historyites, Kantian Perpetual Peaceniks, and the Death of Nation State globalists, walls continue to be erected to create or harden ethnic-religious identities. If the symbol of the 20th Century was the Berlin Wall, the 21st appears to be marked by its fragmentation and redepolyment across a variety of ethno-political spaces. The concrete walls at the US-Mexico border, Israel-Palestine, and the streets of Baghdad (For the conjunction between walls and Shia and Sunni ethnic cleansing see Derek Gregory’s excellent “Biopolitics of Baghdad“), have their biopolitical and virtual expression in the new states of Southeastern Europe and the aspiring ones in the Caucuses, South Asia, and China. The formerly bipolar world of the 20th century has begotten a shotgun splatter of ethno-nationalist states of the 21st.
This is why, however much people want to point to South Ossetia as a Russian proxy, they still have to somehow account for the fact that South Ossetians gleefully take those passports, use Russian currency, and are running not into Georgia but into Russia to escape the violence. I think we have to remember that however one wants to attribute blame for the conflict, there are some real reasons why the South Ossetians want to ditch Georgia altogether. Yet in all the reporting that has come out in the last few days, the South Ossentian voice as an agent of his or her own present and future has been more or less muted. In its place has stood a number of metonyms: Russia, Putin, Georgia, rebels, proxies, oil pipelines, NATO, the United States . . .
Human Rights Watch has shed some light on the situation. According to documents provided by the Russian Operative Headquarters for Providing Humanitarian Assistance to the Residents of South Ossetia, from 8 August to the afternoon of 10 August, the Russian Federal Migration Service recorded 24,032 people crossing the border to Russia. Given that the population of South Ossetia is a mere 70,000, that is quite a large percentage of the population. Perhaps more telling is that 11,190 of them have gone back, many of which “to join to volunteer militias of South Ossetia.” Granted, as HRW admits these figures are hardly accurate given the fluidity of the situation. They should merely be taken as a snapshot of what Ossentians are doing in all this.
As for the violence, here is what HRW has culled from refugee interviews:
Human Rights Watch visited a camp for the displaced in the village of Alagir and interviewed more than a dozen individuals, including those from Tskhinvali and neighboring villages. Those from the city reported spending more than three days in the basements of their houses, unable to come out because of the incessant shelling. Two individuals from Tskhinvali – a mother and her pregnant daughter – said their apartment building was severely damaged by shells and they only dared to come out of the basement on the fourth day, early in the morning of August 10, when Russian troops took full control of the city and started transporting local residents to a safe zone. They said the convoy consisted of six buses (about 27 people each), escorted by the military to the safety zone.
Residents of Satskhenet village told Human Rights Watch that after the village came under heavy artillery fire on the night of August 7, all women, children and elderly (more than 100 people) started fleeing their homes; most of them spent the next two days hiding in the woods and then trying to make their way toward the Russian border. They were assisted by the Russian military in the village of Ger and transported to North Ossetia.
Many families were separated while fleeing the fighting in South Ossetia, and to date they have not been able to obtain any information as to the fate and whereabouts of their relatives whom they left behind.
This seems to confirm RAI Novosti’s telling of events a few days before the Russian military entered the conflict.
South Ossetia has evacuated more than 1,000 children across the border into Russia since violence broke out on Friday. The separatist authorities say six people were killed and 15 injured in mortar and sniper attacks from Georgian forces. Georgia had denied using snipers, and says it only retaliated against South Ossetian grenade attacks.
On Sunday, a total of 543 evacuees arrived in Russia’s North Ossetia, and over 500 are expected to arrive by Monday evening.
South Ossetia’s Interior Ministry said on Monday that Georgia had deployed a howitzer battalion and two mortar batteries along the border over the weekend, while police posts on the southern outskirts of the separatist republic’s capital, Tshinvali, had come under sniper fire.
South Ossentian rebel leader Eduard Kokoity told Interfax that up to 1,400 killed by Georgian troops. The Independent quoted Ludmila Ostayeva, 50, a resident of Tskinvali who fled to the Russian border, “I saw bodies lying on the streets, around ruined buildings, in cars. It’s impossible to count them now. There is hardly a single building left undamaged.”
Given these images, it’s rather funny to read Saakashvilli’s op-ed in today’s Wall Street Journal as he conjures the historical images of Russian aggression. “This invasion, which echoes Afghanistan in 1979 and the Prague Spring of 1968, threatens to undermine the stability of the international security system,” he writes. He goes on to explain to American audiences how “This war is not of Georgia’s making, nor is it Georgia’s choice.” Nor is it simply about the South Ossetia or Abkhazia. Indeed, he claims, this war was designed by the Kremlin to crush freedom. The war is more about those lofty ideas about “the kind of Europe our children will live in” and “the future of freedom in Europe.” All of these can easily be turned against himself.
What is most wondrous however is Saakashvilli’s geographic wizardry. It’s also ironic since geography as an expression of knowledge and power is part of the problem. Georgia, he asserts, is part of Europe and part of “our common trans-Atlantic values of liberty and democracy.” This war is about Georgia’s self-determination; a self-determination which apparently is rooted in denying the Ossetians theirs.
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“The head of the local KGB, Anatoly Baranov, used to head the Federal Security Service (FSB) in the Russian Republic of Mordovia. The head of the South Ossetian Interior Ministry, Mikhail Mindzayev, served in the Interior Ministry of Russia’s North Ossetia. The South Ossetian ‘defense minister,’ Vasily Lunev, used to be military commissar in Perm Oblast, and the secretary of South Ossetia’s Security Council, Anatoly Barankevich, is a former deputy military commissar of Stavropol Krai. So who exactly is a separatist in this government? South Ossetian ‘prime minister’ Yury Morozov?”
Hi Sean!
welcome back and I hope you enjoyed your travels.
I found this hilarious:
http://www.themoscowtimes.com/article/600/42/369695.htm
Russia Today basically forced one of their journalists to resign cos he wanted to report the Russian aerial bombardment of Gori.
Funny, cos the entire world knew that Gori was getting pounded very early on saturday courtesy of the BBC. What were they trying to do hiding something everyone knew?:-) Reminds me of when the Kursk sank. I was speaking to Russians on the phone on the monday morning after it happened and I said ’sorry about your submarine’. They didnt know in Moscow what I was talking about, a full 24 hours after the West knew she had sank. It hadnt been made public yet in Russia. Pathetic.
This is nuts too. Why in fucks name Georgia would try to shut down a website no-one in their right mind would use for info:
http://www.russiatoday.com/news/news/28835
This is even worse:
http://www.peterlavelle.com/?p=36
”To date, Saakashvili is one big loser.”
Talk about blatant propoganda!:-)
http://www.russiatoday.com/news/news/28829
I may be, ahem, wrong about point number 2 above. If the story in the link is true, wow, big trouble ahead!
This is the first time that Russia has pushed back in any truly meaningful form. The game has changed as NATO/euro-atlants can no longer comfortably predict that the Russians are all mouth and no trousers.
I wonder what this will do to NATO which to all intents and purposes should have died in 1989 with a steak through its heart. The frogs had earlier been pushing for a european planning office for NATO that drove the US ballistic and the US’ handling of affairs that are in Europe’s back yard hardly lends much confidence in US leadership (I definitely won’t mention the credit crunch).
With grow rates in the euro-atlantic region predicted to be flat for the next few years, doing something nasty to Russia economically in any substantial way would not exactly be a genius idea. They could always kick them out of the irrelevant G8 or say ‘no WTO’ but short of puffing out their chests, it would quite probably make agreement with Russia on a number of issues much more difficult.
Curiously, now that the euro-atlants have a reaction after 20 odd years of pushing Russia, it would be in their interest to secure what they have gained so far, so some sort of agreement with Russia over all sorts of outstanding issues would be in their favor.
For Russia, it will certainly make its neighbors more cautious, in particular the Ukraine considering its split population. I read that both Israel and the Ukraine are holding off armament shipments for the forseeable future.
As for Kosovo recognition, whoever can continue to say blue in the face that recognition is not a precedent, but all those states who have not yet decided, they will be even more reluctant to do so. Malaysia(?) has already said that it will be putting off the question of the recognition of Malaysia. I expect a similar effect among the OIC states.
As for the next US president, I think it may well be irrelevant what they think about Russia unless the euros are onboard. It’s easy to make statements from afar, but when you are neighbors.
Of course, I could be totally wrong, but like in gambling, there’s no fun in making predictions without a chance of getting egg on one’s face.
’steak through its heart’ – heart disease? I think I meant ’stake’…
in all the reporting that has come out in the last few days, the South Ossentian voice as an agent of his or her own present and future has been more or less muted.
This is an excellent point, ignored by most of the press.
I’m glad you didn’t pay any attention to the oil pipeline angle: the crude price fell $15 over the weekend, hardly a sign that the BTC pipeline is essential to world supplies.
Latest on the BBC is that Russians are outside Gori, but not in the town – still a mere 50 miles from Tbilisi though. Nervous times indeed for the Georgians. It seems to me that the Russians are trying to utterly fuck up the Georgians ”whilst their at it”.
Not Ossetia, but Abkhazia, as it will probably come up: UNOMIG\’s website+1994 Moscow cease-fire agreement:
http://www.unomig.org/documents/relevant/
A bit of jiggery-pokery uncovered…
Photo 1:
http://k.img.com.ua/img/gallery/756/8fbdf560b7f5dfb5d1305d32f0d5392a.jpg
Also on NYT site:
http://www.nytimes.com/slideshow/2008/08/09/world/20080809-GEORGIA_4.html
Photo 2:
http://k.img.com.ua/img/gallery/756/8fbdf560b7f5dfb5d1305d32f0d5392a.jpg
Reuters has done it again. Not photoshop this time!
But not uncovered by me but by Sevra:
http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2008/aug/10/georgia.russia?commentpage=1
“They didnt know in Moscow what I was talking about, a full 24 hours after the West knew she had sank. It hadnt been made public yet in ”
I knew about it, and I was living in a village. Maybe your friends should watch the news.
“”To date, Saakashvili is one big loser.””
Well, he kind of is.
“If the story in the link is true, wow, big trouble ahead!”
I’m probably just too tired to think, but why?
”“They didnt know in Moscow what I was talking about, a full 24 hours after the West knew she had sank. It hadnt been made public yet in ”
I knew about it, and I was living in a village. Maybe your friends should watch the news.”
I am sorry, but I think you are actually mistaken or lying. I remember the day very clearly, and deliberately asked 2 people – a man and a woman, in separate phonecalls – had they seen the news, which they said they’d had, and had they seen that one of their submarines had been lost. They said this was not on the news, and they were quite suprised. 2 Muscovites. ”What submarine”? was the response I recall.
”“”To date, Saakashvili is one big loser.””
Well, he kind of is.”
http://www.dw-world.de/dw/article/0,2144,3556146,00.html
The above piece, admittedly an opinion one, thinks the Russians irked the Georgians into action. I’m sure we’ll hear more about that in the coming days, but if you mean Saakasvilli is a loser because:
(1) Russia has supplied rebels in two of its provinces with weapons and issued passports to Georgian subjects, causing immense instablilty (and, please, bear in mind Russia’s offical postion is ‘1991 borders stay where they are’)
(2) Groundlessly banned Georgian agricultural products from entering Russia, thus making shit of the Georgian economy and
(3)Forcibly deported hordes of Georgians living in Russia, most of whom were legally working in Russia and sending money home to feed extended families
then yes, you are right, he is a loser I guess. The Big Brave Bear quelling the Georgian dragon!:-)
By the way were there working toilet facilities in that village you visited? Locals graduate from acetone to vodka? Or maybe the money is being better spent on Olympic medals. Priorities, I suppose.
“If the story in the link is true, wow, big trouble ahead!”
I’m probably just too tired to think, but why?”
Well if there were Russian squadies 50 miles from our capital, I’d sure be worried. Ask the Chechens.
Dont stress your brain thinking about it, God Forbid! Moscow is such a long way from all this unpleasantness, isnt it? And lets face it, if it wasnt for the internet nobody in Moscow would have a clue what was really going in Georgia.
You’ve been drinking, haven’t you Ger?
“By the way were there working toilet facilities in that village you visited? ”
In fact, I was. More precisely, shovelling animal manure. It was an orphanage in rural Russia.
I think Saakashvili is a loser because, well, he accepted a ceasefire, then violated it, shelling a city, and then invaded it, thinking George W. Bush Street would make Russia too scared to respond. Didn’t work that way now did it? PS are you normally in favor of getting people to join your country by shooting howitzers at them? Before you bring up Chechnya, let us note that the Ossetians are not harboring Taliban look-alikes and raiding the surrounding region for slaves.
Where do you get this idea that most deported Georgians were here legally, anyway?
“Russia has supplied rebels in two of its provinces with weapons and issued passports to Georgian subjects, causing immense instablilty”
I would suggest that these moves may have been a reaction to Georgia’s increasing belligerence, had stated many times it was going to take those places back, and was building its military into by far the most powerful in the region, and that it was these events — along with the horrific village-fascist hate fest that was the Georgian government in the early 1990s — that are the source of the instability.
I would also like to draw your attention to the fact that modern wars are not fought with pointed sticks, but with long-range artillery and aircraft, and that to neutralize them, you must travel long distances — such as 50 miles from the capital of a small country where everything is in proximity to everything else.
With all real respect, I think when you start looking at anything involving military action, your ability to think logically flies out the window.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/894638.stm
Have a look at the dates here. On Monday – likely the evening – Russian officials admit the Kursk is on the seabed. A full day after everyone in the West had copped that a Russian sub had sunk. It was all over the news here on the sunday – and yet it took a full day later for officials to even admit it, let alone explode onto the news. And even in admitting it the Russians couldnt be honest – they said it happened on sunday, most likely to write off the delay in admission. It didnt happen on sunday. It happened on sat evening Moscow time – that was when the Norwegian earthquake sensors went bananas from the two explosions.
I ask of you, would you believe a word out of these people’s mouths?
The first mention of the it in TMT archive is on tuesday august 15th, which meant they didnt hear it till late monday, as even back then they updated the site during the day.
To be honest, I can’t vouch for the date I heard the information about the Kursk. It is lost in the mists of memory.
Why wouldn’t the TMT get it and read the internet? They get the BBC.
Sorry, should have been
“Why wouldn’t the TMT get it? They get the BBC and read the internet.
”I would suggest that these moves may have been a reaction to Georgia’s increasing belligerence, had stated many times it was going to take those places back, and was building its military into by far the most powerful in the region, and that it was these events — along with the horrific village-fascist hate fest that was the Georgian government in the early 1990s — that are the source of the instability.”
well, according to Russia’s own stated official position, 1991 is the border. So what was Russia doing sponsoring rebels in two foreign provinces in the first place?
I dont for a second deny Georgian misbehaviour in the early 1990s, but it doesnt justify Russia trying to destabilise both places. No, Russia’s problem is that Saakashvili has told them kiss his arse once too often and Russia doesnt like that. And when Russia gets mad Russia blows things up (Grozny, Gudermes etc).
”I would also like to draw your attention to the fact that modern wars are not fought with pointed sticks, but with long-range artillery and aircraft, and that to neutralize them, you must travel long distances — such as 50 miles from the capital of a small country where everything is in proximity to everything else.”
And I’d like to draw your attention to the fact that Russian jets can (and did) fly and bomb military installations at Gori, and are quite capable of flying considerably more than 50 miles. Therefore, what is the exact need of having troops there on the ground? And Georgia, according to Janes, has all of EIGHT fighter jets. What are the Russians doing, ’securing’ the wreckage? No Chris – Russian troops have no business whatsoever in Gori, a long way from Ossetiya. None at all. Kick the Georgians in the head, that’s the plan.
”With all real respect, I think when you start looking at anything involving military action, your ability to think logically flies out the window.”
It may have something to do with reading a bit on how Grozny was levelled, twice. Russians+fighter planes+spurious excuses for invasion = scared Irishman
I’d like to point out I am no fan of Saakashvili. But this is going for too long, and too far. Russia had the bloody thing won on saturday morning, and should stop.
“Why wouldn’t the TMT get it? They get the BBC and read the internet.”
I’m baffled by that too, and thought twice about mentioning the TMT. But it really was all over the news here on the sunday. I like subs and immediately clued in.
Sorry for my tone in fairness. I’ve spent the evening watching the news and its not pretty. I just genuinely wish it would stop. War just bothers me terribly, in a child-like way. I’m very squeamish. I happened to see ‘Dawn of the Dead’ when I was only 12 and as result have a real aversion to gore or horror of any description.
http://krig42.livejournal.com/2008/08/10/
“- Дожили, – горестно сказал мне Давид, – русские с грузинами воюют. Конец времен пришел, дальше – только тьма.”
“well, according to Russia’s own stated official position, 1991 is the border. So what was Russia doing sponsoring rebels in two foreign provinces in the first place?
I dont for a second deny Georgian misbehaviour in the early 1990s, but it doesnt justify Russia trying to destabilise both places.”
For one thing, Russian peacekeepers were there according to an agreement SIGNED BY GEORGIA.
The idea that this was somehow the result of a provocation by Russia is hard to square with it having taken a DAY AND A HALF for soldiers to get there, prior to which the Georgians were being fended off by a few peacekeepers and Ossetian militiamen.
Russia’s idea, as far as I can read it, is that since Georgia decided to blow off the cease-fire last time and shell a city instead, they’re going to make sure the Georgian military is in no position to it again.
PS according to msn (not a good source I know) Georgia has resumed shelling Tskhinvali. Way to go peacelovers!
I categorically deny (well, doubt) that Russia has attempted to destablize the area. In fact, I think it is the opposite. War between Tbilisi and South Ossetia, like it did last time, brings in lots of volunteers from Chechnya and North Ossetia and all over the Caucasus and Cossacks. Thus, it destabilizes the whole area. That’s why the peacekeepers were there in the first place.
I have hellish insomnia and only slept half an hour. Shit.
“I happened to see ‘Dawn of the Dead’”
I love that movie!
The game has changed as NATO/euro-atlants can no longer comfortably predict that the Russians are all mouth and no trousers.
It is still quite possible to predict that Russia will not likely to attack anything that is bigger then a peanut.
With grow rates in the euro-atlantic region predicted to be flat for the next few years, doing something nasty to Russia economically in any substantial way would not exactly be a genius idea.
Actually, there is quite a lot that can be done economically. Russia hardly produces anything. Just poke inside a grocery, hardware or a department store. As for Russia cutting off energy supplies, just like the US and China need each other, Russia needs markets for its oil and gas.
They could always kick them out of the irrelevant G8
If it is irrelevant, why does Russia bother to go there?
or say ‘no WTO’ but short of puffing out their chests, it would quite probably make agreement with Russia on a number of issues much more difficult.
As far as I remember Georgia is a WTO member that has not yet conclude final bilateral agreements with Russia which is required for Russia to get WTO membership. It might be a moot point since I am not sure what would be the benefit for the current Russian government in joining the WTO. Its customs are corrupt to the bone and generate quite a chunk of state revenues. One of my interpretation jobs lead me to believe that it might be 20%. Some time ago Putin did suggest he might actually try to set his own little WTO with buddies.
As for the West expecting any help from Russia in pushing Iran or anyone else – these were pipe dreams and hopefully now they will just disperse like smoke. Destabilizing Caucasus area is in direct interests of current Russian and Iranian governments to prevent new crop of BTC-like pipelines being built.
Curiously, now that the euro-atlants have a reaction after 20 odd years of pushing Russia,
Nobody pushed Russia any more then it is a regular push and shove in foreign policy dependent on size and importance. For a while it was not as important for multiple reasons.
For Russia, it will certainly make its neighbors more cautious,
This can easily cut both ways. This whole situation has an ample chance of backfiring right into Russia’s face eventually. Lots being said about “stupid” Saakashvili, especially by arm chair admirals with little understanding of chess. I am in no way defending his actions (or condemning them, since I do not know enough), but Saakashvili forced Russia into a fairly tight spot. If Russia does not crush Georgia completely, immediately and decisively, it looses the fear credibility it apparently seeks and wants to rely upon. If it does, its relationships with the West will be seriously mired. I am not sure that Eastern Europe would just surrender again. And the same goes for the Ukraine.
As for Kosovo recognition, whoever can continue to say blue in the face that recognition is not a precedent,
Isn’t there a clause that prohibits Kosovo from joining any country, i.e. becoming a part of Albania? If Russia wants to follow such a precedent, then it will be creating a buffer mountain area independent state next to its own part of Ossetia. I am not sure it would be a smart thing to do, unless the ultimate goal is constant destabilizing of the region.
As for the next US president, I think it may well be irrelevant what they think about Russia unless the euros are onboard. It’s easy to make statements from afar, but when you are neighbors.
Completely agreed if we are talking about anything serious and drastic. However, there can be other ways to deal with the situation other then direct intervention. Afghanistan comes to mind.
What, no mention of the Magic Space Pony enclave that all right-minded people must defend?
I think the title of this post and some of the other arguments are a bit inconsistent with your rightfully strong argument about the “mobius strip” of blame in the frozen conflicts.
A good friend of mine was in Tbilisi when the first hostilities erupted after the Ossetians attacked and killed two at a Georgian police post. Take that for what it’s worth, but sure, I’d agree that this war was one of choice for both parties.
I think we are in a situation of such moral ambiguity that many find themselves helping to manufacture excuses for the Russian conduct simply out of the certainty that Saakashvili’s cooperation with the Bush administration must mean something ominous (there’s no question whatsoever that they were willing to cooperate with whichever government could help them with security and basic interests, regardless of ideological orientation). Perhaps we should also just drink the haterade on El Salvador for having sent troops to Iraq, and encourage Hugo Chavez to annex the region where his business partners live.
You write that “South Ossetians gleefully take those passports, use Russian currency, and are running not into Georgia but into Russia to escape the violence.”
I am wondering if anyone has any kind of numbers to show this, especially in terms of the passport use? The Russians keep saying that they can’t tolerate Georgian “aggression” in South Ossetia because the Georgians are killing Russian citizens. For the record, these “Russian citizens” are actually ordinary Ossetians who have been issued Russian passports in the recent past (and who have probably kept their Georgian passports just in case, not knowing which way the winds of war will blow). It is NOT known if they actually wanted these passports or had asked for them. It is quite likely that some of them don’t even know they’re now Russian citizens! This is not a Raul Wallenberg moment. The Russian Federation has merely declared all the people living in South Ossetia (and Abkhazia) to be Russian citizens, and hence can now justify its response to any military action by Georgia to regain its sovereign territory by accusing the Georgians of attacking Russian citizens whom it is duty-bound to protect.
But what is really missing from this discussion above, and from most media coverage, is the important fact that all of this is happening IN Georgia. Talking about an “invasion” of South Ossetia is somewhat self-defeating rhetoric from Russia’s perspective, which creates a credibility crisis for their position as “impartial” peacekeepers. Do we call Russian forces going into Chechnya an invasion? When a Spanish Guardia Civil crosses into Bilbao, is this an invasion?
OK, many may disagree there with the familiar arguments. But then why aren’t we talking about why Moscow hasn’t recognized South Ossetian and Abkhazian independence? I really don’t think that Russia wants to see two new separate states appear at its periphery, and the local governments likely know that being an ethnic minority region in Russia isn’t exactly the strongest way to protect your autonomy and rights (Georgia has made serious efforts to offer autonomy). I haven’t really heard a convincing explanation on this one.
“It is NOT known if they actually wanted these passports or had asked for them.”
Why wouldn’t they?
You’re in a border area. On one side is a poor, small country that is ruled by a nationalist government (of a nation you are not) that keeps threatening you and that 15 years ago sent its army around hacking your people into little bits. On the other side is a big, powerful country where people earn 4 times as much money and whose army has never gone around hacking your people into little bits. C’mon.
“But then why aren’t we talking about why Moscow hasn’t recognized South Ossetian and Abkhazian independence?”
Because, like I said, they want the status quo.
“the local governments likely know that being an ethnic minority region in Russia isn’t exactly the strongest way to protect your autonomy and rights”
Wait a second. Tatarstan? Baskkortostan? Kalmykia? These are the most autonomous areas in Russia.
No Chris – Russian troops have no business whatsoever in Gori, a long way from Ossetiya.
Quite. This would be like the British Army making an incursion into Eire towards Dublin at the height of the troubles.
The Russian Federation has merely declared all the people living in South Ossetia (and Abkhazia) to be Russian citizens, and hence can now justify its response to any military action by Georgia to regain its sovereign territory by accusing the Georgians of attacking Russian citizens whom it is duty-bound to protect.
This is why the comparisons with Germany’s promises in 1938 to ethnic Germans in Czechoslovakia carry some credibility. Having read about Russia’s treatment of its own citizens – of which Chechens are as much a part as Muscovites – since Tsarist times, I am having trouble believing protection of Russian citizens is the sincere motivation here.
“Quite. This would be like the British Army making an incursion into Eire towards Dublin at the height of the troubles.”
I suppose if the Irish had had long-range howitzers and Grad systems.
“Having read about Russia’s treatment of its own citizens – of which Chechens are as much a part as Muscovites – since Tsarist times, I am having trouble believing protection of Russian citizens is the sincere motivation here.”
Well, I think it is part of it — Ossetians are not looked at like Chechens are — like I said, I think preserving the status quo is the main factor.
I suppose if the Irish had had long-range howitzers and Grad systems.
Or supposing the IRA had mortars, snipers, and raiding capabilities. Oh, look! They did!
Are the mortars, snipers, and raiders capable of hitting a target from 40 km away? Oh, look! They aren’t!
By the way, the Irish Republican Army IS NOT ACTUALLY AN ARMY.
”I have hellish insomnia and only slept half an hour. Shit.”
First things first. Go to apteka and tell the chemist you cant sleep. Russian chemists are genuinely very good and will give you something to sort you out. They give me Fenibut, the cosmonauts chill-out drug, cos I’m scared of flying and it works a treat.
”Russia’s idea, as far as I can read it, is that since Georgia decided to blow off the cease-fire last time and shell a city instead, they’re going to make sure the Georgian military is in no position to it again.”
In fairness the Russians would have had trouble getting a lot of troops in Ossetiya very quickly, but I think it naive to assume that there werent large quantities of ‘Russian peacekeepers’(a contradiction in terms if ever there was one!) already there irking the Georgians into action on friday. This is looking more and more like a Russian trap with every hour that passes – Russia are trying to send the Georgians back to the Stone Age. Just heard that Gori has been bombed AGAIN. Again according to Janes, Russia has around 700,000 soldiers and 1,200 war planes, Georgia has EIGHT warplanes and less than 30,000 troops. Are the Russians really that worried about mighty Georgia threatening? No. Whats happening here is that the Russians want Georgia permanently fucked up.
” Having read about Russia’s treatment of its own citizens – of which Chechens are as much a part as Muscovites – since Tsarist times, I am having trouble believing protection of Russian citizens is the sincere motivation here.”
I have never believed that Russia has had any interest in protecting its own citizens, Chechen or Russian – dont forget that thousands of Russians were killed when Grozny was bombed in 1995-1996.
This is about ruining Georgia, pure and simple. If it wasnt, the Russians would’ve stopped on saturday when they had the thing won already.
”Or supposing the IRA had mortars, snipers, and raiding capabilities. Oh, look! They did!”
They sure did, and frequently ran across the border into the Republic after fights with the British. Did the Brits push on to Monaghan, Dundalk, Dublin? No, they never did and it was never even on the table.
“I happened to see ‘Dawn of the Dead’”
I love that movie!”
Irishman very scared of zombies:-(
”Are the mortars, snipers, and raiders capable of hitting a target from 40 km away? Oh, look! They aren’t!”
Still doesnt explain why Russian troops are outside Gori. Russia has a massive air-force that is now unchallenged in the skies above Georgia and could level everything from above. And your point ignores the fact that when the IRA did raid, they ran very quickly, often to more than 40km away. Did the Brits land troops across the border to catch them? No.
”By the way, the Irish Republican Army IS NOT ACTUALLY AN ARMY.”
Neither were the Chechens. Didnt stop Russia using full force, did it?
“They sure did, and frequently ran across the border into the Republic after fights with the British. Did the Brits push on to Monaghan, Dundalk, Dublin? No, they never did and it was never even on the table.”
Ger, please admit that fighting the IRA is not like fighting a regular army with tanks and artillery in pitched battles. They are totally different things with different logics. I have no idea whether it was a good idea to attack Gori or not, but you can’t compare it with dealing with the IRA or the Crips. It’s a completely different ball game.
“This is about ruining Georgia, pure and simple. If it wasnt, the Russians would’ve stopped on saturday when they had the thing won already.”
I think it’s more about ruining Saakashvili.
Could you give me a link on that “8 planes” thing? I can’t find anything totally reliable on google but I keep seeing “22 planes, 11 attack helicopters.”
“Did the Brits land troops across the border to catch them? No.”
This may be because artillery can hit you from 40 km away, while sniper fire cannot. Thus, if the sniper retreats 40 km, he cannot shoot you, whereas the howitzer is raining death on your head.
Chechnya has nothing to do with this.
Hey, did the IRA ever fire at the Brits using any of these babies, which have an operational range of 405 kilometers?
The BM-21 122 mm multiple rocket launcher (MRL) system entered service with the Soviet Army in 1963 to replace the aging 140 mm BM-14 system. It consists of a Ural-375D six-by-six truck chassis fitted with a bank of 40 launch tubes arranged in a rectangular shape that can be turned away from the unprotected cab. The vehicle is powered by a water-cooled V-8 180 hp gasoline engine, has a maximum road speed of 75 km/h, road range of up to 750 kilometers, and can cross fords up to 1.5 m deep. The original vehicle together with supporting equipment (including the re-supply truck 9T254 with 60 rockets) is referred to by the GRAU index 9K51; the launcher itself has the industrial index of 2B5. In 1976, the BM-21 was mounted on the newer Ural-4320 six-by-six army truck.
The crew of five men can emplace the system and have it ready to fire in three minutes. The crew can fire the rockets from the cab or from a trigger at the end of a 64-meter cable. All 40 rockets can be away in as little as 20 seconds, but can also be fired individually or in small groups in several-second intervals. A PG-1M panoramic telescope with K-1 collimator can be used for sighting. The BM-21 can be packed up and ready to move in two minutes, which can be necessary when engaged by counter-battery fire. Reloading is done manually and takes about 10 minutes.
Each 2.87-meter rocket is slowly spun by rifling in its tube as it exits, which along with its primary fin stabilization keeps it on course. Rockets armed with high explosive/fragmentation, incendiary, or chemical warheads can be fired 20 kilometers. Newer high explosive and cargo (used to deliver anti-personnel or antitank mines) rockets have a range of 30 kilometers. Warheads weigh around 20 kilograms, depending on the type.
The relative accuracy of this system and the number of rockets each vehicle is able to quickly bring to bear on an enemy target make it effective, especially at shorter ranges. One battalion of eighteen launchers is able to deliver 720 rockets in a single volley. However, the system cannot be used in situations that call for pinpoint precision.
By the way, that’s what the Georgians were hitting Tskhinvali with. I wonder what that baby does to a residential building.
Stupid me. The operational range refers to the vehicle’s range — the missiles range is a mere 30 kilometers. Wow, pushing those guys back 30 kn is sure going to help a whole lot.
Ah bollix I wrote a big comment and its gone up in smoke even though I submitted it.
Anyway, Georgian paltry plane numbers:
http://www.cnn.com/2008/WORLD/europe/08/11/georgia.russia.forces/index.html?eref=rss_latest
”Hey, did the IRA ever fire at the Brits using any of these babies, which have an operational range of 405 kilometers?”
No, but then again, even if they did, you can be sure that the Brits wouldnt have violated a foreign border to give chase. And I still dont see why fighter-bomber couldnt deal with them. I DONT SEE WHY RUSSIAN TROOPS HAD TO ENTER GEORGIA TO FIND AND DESTORY THESE THINGS. Surely the Sukhois could do this? The things are big enough.
”Chechnya has nothing to do with this.”
It has everything to do with it. Russia ‘has form’ in levelling places, and everyone therein, that dont toe the line.
”I have no idea whether it was a good idea to attack Gori or not, but you can’t compare it with dealing with the IRA or the Crips. It’s a completely different ball game.”
I didnt compare them in the first place. Tim correctly pointed out, using NI as an example, that the Brits have respect for foreign borders that the Russians simply dont. Russia should not be inside Georgian territory.
Anyway, it’s stopped:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/7555858.stm
“I DONT SEE WHY RUSSIAN TROOPS HAD TO ENTER GEORGIA TO FIND AND DESTORY THESE THINGS.”
BECAUSE YOU HIDE THEM UNDER OTHER THINGS, SO THEY CANNOT BE SEEN FROM THE AIR. By the way, what do you think does more collaterial damage — troops on the ground, or fighter-bombers dropping bombs? Hell by your logic the US should never have entered Iraq (well, they shouldn’t have, but we’re talking about from a military POV here) — they should have just blown the place to bits with cruise missiles!
“No, but then again, even if they did, you can be sure that the Brits wouldnt have violated a foreign border to give chase.”
Right. If somebody was firing volleys of high explosives from across the border, the Brits would just sit idly by.
“Tim correctly pointed out, using NI as an example, that the Brits have respect for foreign borders that the Russians simply dont.”
Exactly how many foreign borders does Britain have? One? How many times has a British city been under sustained howitzer fire destroying its hospitals? Well, never. Wow, I’m sure glad I’m not a Brit — if the French decide to shell me from across the Channel, my armed forces will sit back and let me get blown to bits. God Save the Queen!
“How many times has a British city been under sustained howitzer fire destroying its hospitals? Well, never.”
Sorry, I was wrong. I can think of one occasion. Well, those were V-2 rockets.
There is yet another problem with the IRA analogy. South Ossetia was not being bombarded by a terrorist group located in a foreign territory; it was being bombarded by a foreign territory.
I also apologize for my tone. I get carried away when I polemicize — it’s a holdover from my editorial-writing days.
I realize this is my billionth post today and I may have already eclipsed Averko on the Hall of Shame, but would really, really pisses me off regarding Saakashvilli is the constant lying.
First, we have “the Russians bombed the pipeline!” Then British Petroleum comes in and says “no they didn’t. We would have noticed.”
Then, we have “80% of our casualties are military,” which morphed within a day into “90% of our casualties are civilians.” This is actually conceivable, but IMO very doubtful unless the Einsatzgruppen showed up.
Then, we have the claim, repeated over and over, that “Russia has occupied Gori,” which turns to be, again, bullshit.
I was just listening to the Beeb where they were interviewing a few people from the balts and Poland. One made an interesting comment about ‘russian passport holders’ how this is a strong reason for Russian action.
This leads to the logical question that considering the non-status of quite a number of russians in the Baltic states, wouldn’t those authorities now be more inclined to give them citizenship rather than making them jump through more hoops???
@Cyrill
1: True, it is unlikely that Russia will attack anything larger than a peanut (either of the roasted or salted kind), but it now introduces an element of doubt. This is now a serious calculation that needs to be taken into account and prepared for which also will have a number of knock on consequences of different proportions.
As is most of the case, perception can count for as much as reality and even more. The rough rule is 5% action, 95% effect. As to how this will work out with regards to Russia is anyone’s guess.
2: As for doing something economically to Russia, your point is contradictory. OTOH you point that something can be done, but on the other you point out that Russia needs to sell its energy. Firstly, if Russia produces very little, then it is selling very little to the Euro-atlants and there is little to sanction in the way of goods. Secondly, who does Russia sell its energy to? Europe. It does not have an alternate source. I note that Russia is now building a branch line to Daquing in China… So your point about mutual dependency supports my point that nothing substantial can be done economically to Russia without hurting those who impose the punishment….
3: Re. the G8, it is a legacy institution and Russia joined it a long time ago as G7+1(?). It was about prestiege and the benefits that Russia thought would flow from being in such a club. No serious economist thinks the G8 has much relevance any more for a number of reasons, starting with why isn’t China a member?
4: Your points about the WTO are well taken, but as with all large trans-national institutions, there is a strong element of politics. How is it the Ukraine is in the WTO? Is it less corrupt or more corrupt than Russia? Not to mention that particularly with a country like Russia, other ‘unofficial’ issues can be tagged on to membership criteria.
Further evidence of where politics trumps golf club rules is the entry of Bulgaria and Romania into the European Union. Neither fulfilled the Justice and Home Affairs chapter of the acquis communautaire, the body of european law that must be adopted before entry, and now both states are being sanctioned for still being corrupt and funds are being withheld. It was a political decision to let them in, strongly pushed for by the UK and France.
The big question to do with corruption is whether Medvyedev’s announced platform to crush corruption will actually have any effect. He has already announced that there are several hundred investigations into state corruption at all levels…
I’m not sure about what you mean “new crop of BTC-like pipelines being built.” Even if such pipelines are built, they will hardly diminish Europe’s dependence on russian energy in the near, middle or long term..
5: The pushing refers to the steady expansion of NATO right up to Russia’s border and it turning from a defensive military organization in to an active offensive and expeditionary one. Not to mention missile defense and sponsoring ‘democratic’ coups. The words coming from the euro-atlants may be soft, but the actions are hard. Are the Russian’s paranoid? Who wouldn’t be considering their history and long borders.
6: I think there is something about Kosovo not being able to join Albania, but there is also a clause that it is not allowed to have an army. It is just sophistry. The borders between Kosovo and Albania are practically non-existant and NATO is training and setting up a ’security force’.
As for Russia and S. Ossetia, my guess is that in part of any cease-fire agreement, they will demand some sort of demilitarized zone between the two. Putin and co. are going to try and do this as cheaply as possible and such an agreement is the way to go rather than paying for the permanent presence of very large numbers of russian troops there. If the Russians are clever enough, they’ll get the UN to pay for it and the other ‘peace-keepers’ (if they are allowed) will come from non aligned countries such as India. We’ve seen in Kosovo how the ‘right kind of peace-keepers’ impose the ‘right version’ of a UN implemented peace plan…
7: I’m not entirely sure what you mean to say about Afghanistan, but if I am correct, I find that unlikely if only for the fact that Russia has by far the largest ‘diplomatic’ presence there. At the end of hostilities, Russia flew in 10 Il-76’s worth of equipment to Kabul, but despite this one hears very, very little about presence of the Russians there.
It looks similar to the relationship between France and Algeria, i.e. despite the extreme historical nastiness, they are still closely linked economically and politically and both keep quiet about it. One day the euro-atlants will leave which will leave the Russians.
“How is it the Ukraine is in the WTO?”
Magic space ponies?
On the subject of bad historical parallels (1938, 1956, 1968, whatever), I’d like to throw my hat in to the ring. With regards to Georgia, who in the West that played the equivalent role of former ambassador to Iraq, April Glaspie, who intoned to the then leader of Iraq, Saddam Hussein, that ‘whatever you do is fine with us’?
The Glaspie transcript (not confirmed by US State Department):
http://whatreallyhappened.com/WRHARTICLES/ARTICLE5/april.html?q=ARTICLE5/april.html
Any bets? No prizes.
‘We cut Georgia arms sales months ago’ – Israel
http://www.jpost.com/servlet/Satellite?cid=1218104259498&pagename=JPost%2FJPArticle%2FShowFull
“Several months ago, we carried out an evaluation of the situation in Georgia and realized that Georgia and Russia were on a collision course. We have good relations with both, and don’t want to back either in this conflict,” the official said. “We therefore made a decision to drastically minimize sales of weapons to Georgia.
Frantic requests from Georgia to Israel for military hardware leading up to the current conflict with Russia set off alarm bells at the Ministry of Defense.
“We saw that there was a surge in requests for weapons, and we therefore decided to, in effect, minimize the entire issue. After our decision, we sold only defensive weapons in small quantities to Georgia,” he said. “If Georgia asks us to send in first aid to treat casualties, we will oblige. But we will not get into the heart of the war between Georgia and Russia,” he added.”
Funny that, no one else saw the war coming. The israelis may not have sold any weapons systems recently, but they still had advisors and probably provided spare parts for exisiting systems.
It looks to me that Israel wants to keep good relations with Russia, which considering all the bellicose statements about ‘dealing with Iran’, does not jive. It seems as if someone still needs Russia….
Speaking of Saak’s war, I would like to draw everybody’s attention to what this fucktard said a few hours before blowing the shit out of Tskhinvali with this thing http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p-lGwyySrwY:
——
Georgia is undertaking an immediate, unilateral cease fire.
We do not have the will to respond to violence with yet more violence.
We have been tolerating this for so many years. We have not responded to so many provocations throughout the years, to countless violations. No other state would have shown such restraint. Please, do not test the Georgian state’s patience. Because this is your country, which is willing to defend each of you.
Let’s stop this spiral of violence. I address everyone: Let’s do everything to stop the escalation—today, tomorrow, or the day after—and return to the negotiating table. Let’s use every possible format—direct, multilateral, and other formats—to overcome this absolutely critical situation, to come out of this unacceptable deadlock in which we all find ourselves.
My dear people!
I rely on your wisdom, on your historical experience, that lies in our shared past and in our genes.
This is the Caucasus, where violence harms everyone.
Let’s give peace and dialogue a chance.
I really believe in you!
http://www.civil.ge/eng/article.php…=natural%20ally
a peanut
I apologize, my peanut comment was unnecessary.
2: As for doing something economically to Russia, your point is contradictory. OTOH you point that something can be done, but on the other you point out that Russia needs to sell its energy. Firstly, if Russia produces very little, then it is selling very little to the Euro-atlants and there is little to sanction in the way of goods.
I was referring to consumer and agricultural goods. As for energy, yes, it completely cuts both ways but other sources can potentially be found, while for Russia, there is very little that can substitute a drop in state revenue with over 60% of it coming from energy commodities. I am not suggesting it is easy, just possible.
3: Re. the G8, it is a legacy institution and Russia joined it a long time ago as G7+1(?).
Not really a legacy institution. A rich boys club is never a legacy institution.
How is it the Ukraine is in the WTO? Is it less corrupt or more corrupt than Russia?
I have no knowledge of trade related corruption in the Ukraine. As for membership, it is a matter of process – signing bilateral agreements with each member.
Further evidence of where politics trumps golf club rules is the entry of Bulgaria and Romania into the European Union. Neither fulfilled the Justice and Home Affairs chapter of the acquis communautaire, the body of european law that must be adopted before entry, and now both states are being sanctioned for still being corrupt and funds are being withheld. It was a political decision to let them in, strongly pushed for by the UK and France.
European Union membership process has been ridden with problems from the very beginning, when countries like Italy with chronic budget deficits suddenly trimmed their books to satisfy the 3% rule. And it later became apparent that even France and Germany never really qualified. Validity of memberships in institutions wasn’t my point, only that if needed, these memberships can be used as levers.
The big question to do with corruption is whether Medvyedev’s announced platform to crush corruption will actually have any effect.
I think that the only way to seriously reduce (underline the reduce) corruption is to make government less powerful in daily business related decision making. So far, most of Putin’s policies lead in the opposite direction. I doubt Medvedev’s policies will change any of it regardless of investigations.
I’m not sure about what you mean “new crop of BTC-like pipelines being built.” Even if such pipelines are built, they will hardly diminish Europe’s dependence on russian energy in the near, middle or long term..
Sure they will. Having three sources is better then one.
5: The pushing refers to the steady expansion of NATO right up to Russia’s border and it turning from a defensive military organization in to an active offensive and expeditionary one.
I personally see no reason for Russia not to be a member of NATO if it would wish to join. It has to qualify, but I do not think there are any fundamental reasons beyond Russia’s desire to stand alone.
Who wouldn’t be considering their history and long borders.
This logic would prevent Germany and France from being in the same alliance ever.
7: I’m not entirely sure what you mean to say about Afghanistan
Stingers.