Here is the Lieven piece link:

http://newsweek.washingtonpost.com/postglobal/needtoknow/2008/08/georgias_miscalculation.html

There is also a Dmitri Trenin piece. It starts okay, but then he becomes too much of an alarmist.

http://newsweek.washingtonpost.com/postglobal/needtoknow/2008/08/georgias_risky_move.html

May I interpose with an answer about Georgian night fighting abilities?

\Bad joke

It is simple, the Georgian army knows the lyrics of Boney M’s ‘Night Flight to Venus’ better than the Russians!

/Bad joke

I have little doubt that Georgian night vision equipment is of western origin though…

Do you have a link to the Lieven piece, Kolya?

Here

As I remember you are the “military” person so for now try to guess why Georgian army was launching its offense at night and very often were able to get back positions lost in the day

At the end of the day what all this proves is that Saakashvili, regardless of his IQ, acted like reckless fool.

I think Anatol Lieven has it right when at the end of his piece he writes:

“Promises by NATO leaders to bring Georgia into the alliance at some stage in future, and ostentatious declarations of support from Washington, appear to have convinced the Georgian administration that if they began a new war with Russia over South Ossetia, the West would be compelled to come to their aid. Hence the Georgian military move into South Ossetia in recent days.

In this however the Georgians appear to have miscalculated very badly. Russia has made it clear over the years that it has no intention of suffering defeat in South Ossetia or Abkhazia. It is exceptionally unlikely that the U.S. will send troops to fight for Georgia, or even impose serious sanctions on Moscow, given the certainty of a Russian response against vital U.S. interests in other areas (notably Iran). And if Russia exerts even a fraction of its strength, the Georgian forces will be crushed. The only very faint hope from this miserable situation is that yet another defeat might conceivably persuade the Georgians to let South Ossetia and Abkhazia go, at which point Georgia’s path to join NATO and perhaps even one day the EU would be vastly easier.”

To get into conflict then:

1. If he wins – Saak gets the nation’s hero and the Saver title. Russian influence in the region destoryed – that means more troubles – that means more ways to “poke” Russia.

2. If he looses – Saak claims Georgia is under attack of evil empire – please send “mediators” and “international peacekeepers”. Russian influence in the region destoryed – that means more troubles – that means more ways to “poke” Russia.

Now think about:

1. Saak background
2. who in fact control Georgian army (communication and command systems)
3. what US top guys (and the top US girl in particular) are “demanding” Russia to do

– and you can get the full picture by yourself. No need to be a genius

PS. Bush has nothing to do with this. he is not that smart and he is out of the game now anyway.

PS-2. And also to make a small “surprise” for China for free…

johnnie b. baker

hey! there’s a war going on! where are you sean? fuck russia!

Sorry, boy, but this time it’s your term to be fucked up by Russia.

I agree that that’s hard to believe. Frankly, I have no idea. Yes, more than likely some Americans knew that something was about to happen. How far up the chain of command this knowledge went is another matter. Time will tell (maybe). Either way it does not reflect well on the US state/intelligence services.