Two references to Russia being the next Nazi Germany in two days. The one from the left came yesterday. Fortunately, Daniel Silva is no intellectual heavy hitter and his Russia paranoia is likely to quietly dissipate into the ether.
Today’s however comes from someone who carries a big intellectual bat. Namely, the ever loving Richard Pipes. Pipes needs no introduction. His Russophobia is well documented in print and Cold Warrior service. Always willing to challenge evil everywhere, Pipes has joined the Russia as Fascist bandwagon. Need proof? Just look at his letter to the Financial Times where he compares Russia’s behavior toward Georgia as akin to “Germany’s aggression against Czechoslovakia.” Here is the letter in full:
Sir, Peter J. Rooney (Letters, July 17) urges us to abandon the “insignificant statelet” of “tiny Georgia” to Russian aggression because its defence may lead to a military confrontation with Russia. This advice reminds me of Prime Minister Neville Chamberlain’s willingness in the autumn of 1938 to sacrifice “tiny” Czechoslovakia to Nazi Germany because it was a “quarrel in a faraway country between people of whom we know nothing”.
As it soon turned out, Germany’s aggression against Czechoslovakia was a prelude to her invasion of Poland, which unleashed the second world war. Aggressive large powers tend to begin their expansion with “insignificant statelets” in order to test the world’s reaction before going after bigger fish. I think Russia’s behaviour toward Georgia fits this pattern. It should not be ignored.
Richard Pipes,
Cambridge, MA 02138, US
Fascism is just the gift that keeps on giving. It’s no surprise Pipes the Elder has joined the “Fascism Beware!” choir considering that his son, Daniel, is one the “intellectual” architects of “islamo-fascism” (following Lefty gone Righty Christopher Hitchens, who coined the term).
Is your washroom breeding Fascists, Messrs Pipes?
1. Why me? This is not my country that is been trashed.
2. What for? I don’t think I’ll visit US in any near future.
Robert, I read the S.H.I.T. that you posted a link to. Thanks! Excellent! Bravo-o-o-o-o!
But you know what?
This is NOT a protest against something. This is just a plea “Please, when taking out my notebook, documents and even my favorite comics – do it in risponsebble way. Please, please, please.”
But as I said – this is not my country.
PS. Not so long time ago in a far-far away country there was a rule – all copy machines MUST be registered. Just in case. And kept in the locked room with limited access. Just in case. For the good, of course.
The policies cover “any device capable of storing information in digital or analog form,” including hard drives, flash drives, cell phones, iPods, pagers, beepers, and video and audio tapes.
On the surface, it seems way too much, however. this is WP after all.
This phrase above alone makes me wonder of how accurate this is. How many laptops, iPhones and MP3 players or FLASH DRIVES cross the border daily?
This reminds me of the scare several years ago (coincided with the Dubai port embarrassment) that only 5% of the containers imported into the US were inspected. I had a job where people from the Miami customs were and they told me quite frank: “we inspect 100% of the cargo we want to inspect (which constitutes about the 5% cargo that comes into the US). We have the authority to shut the goddamn port down if we need to and we will.”
If you ask the generation of late 70-s or early 80-s they will most likely say Виктор Цой was Russian. Except for obvious mongoloid features, everything about him seemed quite Russian.
Good point. Wealthy, good looking, celebrity ethnic minorities are normally permitted to be considered Russian.
Dima Bilan?
I have been out of circulation for a week or so and haven’t had time to follow this thread in detail (perhaps my good fortune?), but I wanted to mention one thing I saw toward the top, about Russia’s “allies.”
It’s a concern expressed at times even by Russian foreign policy analysts who are not “anti-government” that Russia does not in fact have any allies in the traditional sense of the word. It has countries with whom it cooperates on one thing or another, but almost none (and perhaps, indeed, none) of those countries could be described as allies. Even Belarus doesn’t really work – can you imagine the president of a US “ally” having designs on the US presidency?
Also, the “news” about laptop searches is terrifying but is based on a Court of Appeals decision that’s several months old, IIRC. I guess now DHS (our very own KGB) has decided that they are going to promulgate policies consistent with the decision. What is difficult is that there is a long line of court decisions supporting the idea that no level of suspicion at all is required for searches at the border. This may have made sense in a world when tangible goods presented the greatest danger, but I think now some standard is needed (at least some articulation of “reasonable suspicion,” which is a very low bar) to prevent completely arbitrary searches/seizures of information media.
I had a flashback (similar, I think, to ivanov’s) to Soviet border policies when any “printed media” was subject to being perused and confiscated if its contents were not amendable. It is a little disturbing to see the US taking pages from that particular book.
Cyrill, your point about it not being a big deal because they won’t search a very high percentage of laptops doesn’t fly. That’s like saying not many people’s homes are likely to be searched, so why not do away with the 4th Amendment. Are you really willing to leave such decisions (which could involve results including confiscation and pirating of people’s intellectual property) up to a customs official with no judicial review?
Cyrill, your point about it not being a big deal because they won’t search a very high percentage of laptops doesn’t fly.
I did not mean to say it was no big deal. It is if this article is correct. I was just a bit skeptical since media is prone to use hyperbole and likes to scare people.
As for allies, I remember one of my friends that lives there said a couple of years ago: Even with Brezhnev we had friends, under this guy we have none.
http://www.worldpublicopinion.org/pipa/images/apr08/BBCEvals/BBCEvals_Apr08_graph2.jpg
The average percentage saying that the US is having a positive influence has increased from 31 per cent a year ago to 35 per cent today while the view that it is having a negative influence has declined from 52 per cent to 47 per cent.
The country with the greatest improvement is Russia. Positive views of Russia have risen on average from 29 per cent to 37 per cent and negative views have fallen from 40 per cent to 33 per cent. In 12 countries, the view of Russia grew more positive.
http://www.worldpublicopinion.org/pipa/articles/views_on_countriesregions_bt/463.php?lb=btvoc&pnt=463&nid=&id=
PS. Sorry but I hate doing this manual “coding”
Ivanov, Cyrill means the United States, the only country that is important in Cyrillworld! Unimportant loser countries like China and India don’t count.
Chris, thanks for the
PS Kolya: http://www.nytimes.com/2008/07/31/world/europe/31hoax.html?pagewanted=print
Interesting and amusing.
“It has countries with whom it cooperates on one thing or another”
That’s pretty much what an ally is, no? “Allies” are countries that cooperate on a lot of stuff and say nice things about each other, while at the same time usually putting their country’s own perceived interests first.
The kind of mutual backstabbing going on between Roosevelt, Stalin, and Churchill, for instance, was hilarious, as Roosevelt was trying to undermine the British Empire and the USSR, Churchill was trying to undermine the USSR and preserve the British Empire, and Stalin trying to undermine the British Empire and US, all while slapping each other on the back.
PS. I highly recommend the transcript of Roosevelt and Stalin’s conversation at Yalta over the Baltic States. Roosevelt’s level of cynicism is jaw-dropping. (So is Stalin’s, but that;s to be expected.)
Ivanov, Cyrill means the United States, the only country that is important in Cyrillworld! Unimportant loser countries like China and India don’t count.
Not sure where you got this Chris. As a professional interpreter I can tell you your interpretation has failed miserably. I was not talking for myself and I was following Lyndon’s post that did not address how people think of other people but rather “allies in traditional sense”.
I am a Russian myself, if Russia did not matter to me, why would I be discussing it here? All you seem to see is dislike I or others might have for the current administration and its policies and extrapolate it on overall general attitude. Unlike most immigrants I know, I actually go to Russia twice a year.
“Allies?” Allies mean a serious common purpose. No matter the back stabbing, WWII allies had a serious common goal. There is no common goal between Russia, China and India that might overwrite their national interests, except maybe preventing each other from getting ahead.
Not to mention that being an ally usually means some sort of a formal alliance. I doubt the Shanghai protocol could qualify as an alliance akin to NATO or Warsaw Pact or the Axis.
“WWII allies had a serious common goal”. True – remove the menace of German militarism. After that it was every nation for itself. The Soviets never took a meaningful part in the war against Japan although they took serious advantage of it at the very end of the war.
Come to think of it, in a less dramatic form, the link between China and Russia could very easily be compared with that of the wartime Grand Alliance, to resist the pressure of US militarism.
Come to think of it, in a less dramatic form, the link between China and Russia could very easily be compared with that of the wartime Grand Alliance, to resist the pressure of US militarism.
Right, right, US invaded at least one of them and is constantly bombing another preparing for a… what’s Chinese for Seelöwe?
The analogy would only work if Czeck was sniping at the Sudetan Germans after having tried and failed to genocide them.
US Presence in the Republic of Georgia is Russia’s God Send
Georgia and the West once more on the March in the Caucuses
robert harneis The Soviets never took a meaningful part in the war against Japan although they took serious advantage of it at the very end of the war.
Yes, if you mean defeat a Japanese army in 1939 on the Mongolian border and than finishing off the Japanese force in Manchuria in 1945 as not partaking…than yes, why of course, no less than the British and French and Dutch who fought the Japanese long before US entry into the war.
The Soviet entry into the war against the Japanese was meaningful enough that the USSR regained control over the southern half of Sakhalin Island (and helped themselves to the Kuril islands in the process, Russiena sovereignty over which the Japanese refuse to acknowledge). And most of us here having been to Japan, it is tempting to imagine what the place would be like had the Japanese still been here. I’ll bet the Japanese would have heard of drainage, for starters.
Yeah, they heard of Korean slaves too.
Yeah, they heard of Korean slaves too.
They’re still here, despised by the Russians because they don’t mind doing some work occasionally.
Hi everyone.
Since Sean seems to not be posting, I just wanted to let people know there are some good discussions of the S. Ossetia situation over at European Tribune, if you’re interested.
Today: Georgia: oil, neocons, cold war and our credibility
Yesterday: Wannabe NATO member on war path
Thanks, poemless.
As everyone here knows, I’m no fan of the Putin/Medevedev government, but the decision of Georgia’s president to attack South Ossetia was extremely idiotic. It’s because of him that people are dying in his own country. Did he really think that he’ll come out ahead?
Even those who sympathize with Georgia and believe its stance that Abkhazia and South Ossetia are integral part of Georgia would have to agree that the launching of this attack was rash, stupid and self-defeating.
I don’t know how it will all play out in the world of politics and diplomacy, but military it makes perfect sense for Russia to strike deep into Georgia. Regardless of the US officials say, they know that under similar circumstances they would have done the same.
Kolya.
If the Georgian president is in fact a US law graduate, if the Georgian army is paid by, equipped, trained and in practical terms under US command, if State Department don’t show a slightest surprise and provide full political (so far) support, if the full scale small war started same day as Olympics in CHINA – who do you think is in fact behind this plan? Crazy Saakashvili?
Ivanov, I’m certainly no fan of the disastrous Bush administration, but I really don’t think that they are behind the attack. Perhaps I’m wrong, but my guess is that privately the White House is very displeased with the stupid rashness of Georgia’s president.
hey! there’s a war going on! where are you sean? fuck russia!
Вся ситуация ужасает.
“Perhaps I’m wrong, but my guess is that privately the White House is very displeased with the stupid rashness of Georgia’s president.”
I would agree.
ivanov,
Isn’t ironic that you are saying virtually the same thing as Berezovsky?
… необходимо отметить, что Грузия пошла на силовой вариант решения конфликта в Южной Осетии, лишь почувствовав за собой мощь США, которые пытаются решать в регионе Южного Кавказа свои геополитические задачи.
Chrisius Maximimus “Perhaps I’m wrong, but my guess is that privately the White House is very displeased with the stupid rashness of Georgia’s president.”
I would agree.”
It seems that the gamble Sakaashvili took was to take over South Ossetia before the Russians could react militarily. This is not as crazy as it sounds because apparently the only land route in is through the Roki tunnel. They failed to block the tunnel and so they failed period. had the Russians been shut out it would have been very difficulty to invade Georgia across the mountains. What seems to have stopped them is the effective holding action of the South Ossetians in Tiskinvali against their tanks, just as Hezbollah in Lebanon stopped the Israelis using Russian or Russian derived antitank missiles. I read about this scenario a couple of years ago pointing out that the Russians could not simply “pour across the frontier” as the press has suggested because of the roadless 5000 metre mountain range in the way.
It is certain the US is very displeased with Sakaashvili for failing in his coup. It is hard to believe that they would have been too upset with him if he had succeeded. Did they give him the green light? Hard to believe that somebody in the US administration was not aware of the big military build up necessary for an attack of the size mounted by the Georgians. Who paid for it all? Was the huge US intelligence set up completely deaf to what was obviously a carefully planned attack? Have they no one keeping an eye on Sakaashvili? No doubt the US would have us believe they were not consulted or at some level aware- wholesale slaughter in Tskinvali is not really what the world’s leading democracy is supposed to stand for.
The other question arises were the Russians tipped off? The speed of their reaction indicates that they were at least ready and may have known the attack was coming.
Diplomatically the West has not got a leg to stand on after Kosovo, Iraq, Afghanistan and now Pakistan to name but a few. To hear GWB talking about wide spread bombing and respecting the territorial integrity of nation states warms my heart.
The Russians will presumably want to push the Georgians back so that South Ossetia cannot be shelled. They will also try and clear the Khodori Gorge to make Abkhazia safe but that may not be so easy as the terrain appears difficult to say the least. They will also attempt to eliminate as much military equipment as possible, particularly planes.
As a footnote BP have apparently said that Georgian claims that bombs fell near the BTC pipeline are untrue. It is anyway out of action through a fire which may have been Kurdish sabotage in Turkey.
Robert, knowing all we know about Putin/Medvedev I doubt very much that Russia would have not attacked Georgia had they successfully blocked the tunnel. It would have made things more difficult and bloodier, but, if anything, it would have enlarged the conflict even more. And I’m sure that Russia’s military had plans for such a turn of events. So yes, Saakashvili’s decision was idiotic and because of him Georgians living miles from South Ossetia died needlessly (and might still be dying–had not check the latest news).
Kolya – you could be right about that certainly in hindsight after what we have seen in the last day or two. But do you really believe that absolutely no one in the US administration knew what was cooking.
On the other hand I attended an off the record press briefing with a senior Polish dimlomat about a month ago and asked him what he thought would happen in Georgia and he said he thought it would simmer but not boil over. I have no reason to believe he was kidding me along so perhaps the cock up theory of public events should prevail over the conspiracy theorists – just this once. On the other hand somebody at some level must have known something or they should be sacked.
Kolya – dimlomat was not a deliberate insult to diplomats but a typing error. Not a bad new word though in the circumstances.
“do you really believe that absolutely no one in the US administration knew what was cooking.”
I agree that that’s hard to believe. Frankly, I have no idea. Yes, more than likely some Americans knew that something was about to happen. How far up the chain of command this knowledge went is another matter. Time will tell (maybe). Either way it does not reflect well on the US state/intelligence services.
Sorry, boy, but this time it’s your term to be fucked up by Russia.
Kolya.
the whole “idea” is very simple.
To get into conflict then:
1. If he wins – Saak gets the nation’s hero and the Saver title. Russian influence in the region destoryed – that means more troubles – that means more ways to “poke” Russia.
2. If he looses – Saak claims Georgia is under attack of evil empire – please send “mediators” and “international peacekeepers”. Russian influence in the region destoryed – that means more troubles – that means more ways to “poke” Russia.
Now think about:
1. Saak background
2. who in fact control Georgian army (communication and command systems)
3. what US top guys (and the top US girl in particular) are “demanding” Russia to do
– and you can get the full picture by yourself. No need to be a genius
PS. Bush has nothing to do with this. he is not that smart and he is out of the game now anyway.
PS-2. And also to make a small “surprise” for China for free…
Ivanov, I understand your argument but I doubt very much that your guess is correct. First, I find it very improbable that any high-ranking US person thought Georgia has much of a chance to succeed militarily. Second, it is clear that besides talk the US is not doing much. I think they were not prepared for either one of the two contingencies you wrote about.
At the end of the day what all this proves is that Saakashvili, regardless of his IQ, acted like reckless fool.
I think Anatol Lieven has it right when at the end of his piece he writes:
“Promises by NATO leaders to bring Georgia into the alliance at some stage in future, and ostentatious declarations of support from Washington, appear to have convinced the Georgian administration that if they began a new war with Russia over South Ossetia, the West would be compelled to come to their aid. Hence the Georgian military move into South Ossetia in recent days.
In this however the Georgians appear to have miscalculated very badly. Russia has made it clear over the years that it has no intention of suffering defeat in South Ossetia or Abkhazia. It is exceptionally unlikely that the U.S. will send troops to fight for Georgia, or even impose serious sanctions on Moscow, given the certainty of a Russian response against vital U.S. interests in other areas (notably Iran). And if Russia exerts even a fraction of its strength, the Georgian forces will be crushed. The only very faint hope from this miserable situation is that yet another defeat might conceivably persuade the Georgians to let South Ossetia and Abkhazia go, at which point Georgia’s path to join NATO and perhaps even one day the EU would be vastly easier.”
Do you have a link to the Lieven piece, Kolya?
Kolya, I’ll try to show you that Lieven is wrong in his every assumption, but now I’m just busy.
As I remember you are the “military” person so for now try to guess why Georgian army was launching its offense at night and very often were able to get back positions lost in the day
Here
Ivanov,
May I interpose with an answer about Georgian night fighting abilities?
\Bad joke
It is simple, the Georgian army knows the lyrics of Boney M’s ‘Night Flight to Venus’ better than the Russians!
/Bad joke
I have little doubt that Georgian night vision equipment is of western origin though…
… second attempt, Chris…
Here is the Lieven piece link:
http://newsweek.washingtonpost.com/postglobal/needtoknow/2008/08/georgias_miscalculation.html
There is also a Dmitri Trenin piece. It starts okay, but then he becomes too much of an alarmist.
http://newsweek.washingtonpost.com/postglobal/needtoknow/2008/08/georgias_risky_move.html
Chris, for some reason when I send the link my comment does not make it through (Georgian intelligence, no doubt). Check the Washington Post (down the left side, postglobal box.)