One stat that I won’t forget is that for every 3 births there are 2 abortions.

This particular figure is falling quite rapidly, though. In the 1990’s, IIRC, there were two or three abortions for every birth.

With what’s available now to students (and faculty), it gives me the impression that it was during the Middle Ages when I went to college….

@Sean,

I would question whether high alcohol prices did much to lower consumption. For example, the prohibition 1914-1925 did virtually nothing to lower consumption. In fact, it appears that all it did was increase bootlegging and cause the state to lose a lot of money because it held a monopoly on alcohol production.

While illicit production does increase in times of prohibition, the overwhelming evidence for Russia, at least in mid to late 1980’s, was that in health terms it was outweighted by lower overall consumption. After all, at least in its early days, there were serious penalties for selling moonshine. Unfortunately that effort collapsed, because the USSR decided to have perestroika and social loosening at the same time, and because this prohibition did more than anything to dent Gorby’s popularity (which is sad – it’s one of the few unquestionably good things he did)…

Hello to you Kolya. It makes sense to me too especially considering DR’s intricate analysis. But I’m not fully satisfied with the alcohol explanation. Alcohol is always raised as a cause when it might be more a factor among many. I wonder if the dip in mortality in the 1960s also has to do with the WWII generation entering their 40s and presumably dying off earlier. Living under 4 years of war and then 10 years of reconstruction will do that.

I agree that it’s many causes. Russian men in particular have a perfect fusion of lifestyle choices that guarantee their early demise, including smoking, high-fat, high-sodim diet, as well as alcohol. (Although I still think alcohol is the biggest single culprit).

The WW2 explanation is totally unconvincing. There was no such mortality increase in Germany, a country where 5.3mn soldiers died and which faced something close to a famine in the aftermath of WW2. It also doesn’t explain why Russia’s mortality for older men continued to increase, including amongst those too young to have lived through WW2 or the Stalinist period in general.

I would think the hardships of total war and prison camp conditions would have more of a longterm impact on the health of a population no matter how many people are huddled in basements gulping cheap vodka. Frankly, while alcohol is a problem, to overemphasize it sounds too stereotypical to me.

The theorizing about stressed out WW2 veterans and Gulag inmates having lower life expectancies are conjectures; the correlation between alcohol consumption and mortality, on the other hand, is solid.

Note that the Gulag prisoners were released in mid-1950s’. Mortality rise started only in mid-1960’s.

Thanks for the link Kolya. Incidentally, I got an email today that Murray Feshbach is coming to speak at UCLA on May 1 on the demographic issue in Russia. I plan on going and will give a full report.

That would be very kind of you. I especially interested in indepth information about the AIDS situation.

@Kolya,

In any event, Da Russophile thinks that, among things, cheaper prices played a role in increasing Russia’s alcohol consumption. Makes sense to me. Whether he’s correct, I don’t know.

If you look here (http://darussophile.blogspot.com/2008/04/editorial-demographics-ii-out-of-death.html) at the graph called Alcohol and Life Expectancy in Russia 1990-2007, you will see that there’s is a remarkable correlation between changes in alcohol prices relative to food prices, alcohol consumption levels and life expectancy.

For what is worth, I distinctly remember people drinking vodka out on the street when the Soviet Union still existed and Yeltsin was not in power. Not only drinking out on the street, but also drunks lying right there on the sidewalk.

True. The only time there was ever an effort against this was during Gorby’s anti-alcohol campaign. Otherwise, the continuity from RSFSR to RF is almost perfect.

About Eberstadt…

His stats are true, but he is an incorrigle pessimist. As I covered in my mortality post, rapid improvements in that area are possible, as shown by Karelia in Finland since the 1970’s (when its stats where comparable to Russia’s today) and Estonia since 1995.

@Candide,

Actually, modern Russians are way behind some other nations in alcohol consumption (leastwise officially). Irish drink a whole lot more, for example. Luxembourg is No. 1 in drinking, I believe.

These are by official stats. It’s estimated that Rosstat estimates are a third lower than the real figure because a lot of alcohol sales/consumption is unregistered.

It will be probably be a fascinating talk, Sean. I’ll certainly be eager to read your report.

A few quotes:

“Life expectancy for Russian men is astonishingly low, well below current levels in either Pakistan or Bangladesh. And trends have been moving in the wrong direction for decades. In 2005, male and female life expectancy at birth in Russia were both lower than they had been 40 years earlier.”

“In 2005, for men between the ages of 27-57, death rates were typically 100% higher than they had been in 1965. As for Russia’s women, their situation might only be described as “good” in comparison to that terrible record for Russian men. Death rates for women aged 26-59 in 2005 were at least 40% higher than in 1965.”

“The causes of death are clear enough: Skyrocketing mortality from cardiovascular disease and injuries (accidents, poisoning, suicides and homicides). The underlying causes here are harder to pinpoint, but we can mention a number of plausible factors: Poor diet, lack of exercise, heavy smoking, and social stress. Russia’s deadly love affair with the vodka bottle remains legendary, and looks to be another significant factor, with per capita consumption extraordinarily high.”

Here is the link to the article:

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB120907994764042837.html

I remember reading an article some time ago (maybe in ‘Atlantic’), putting Russia behind many European nations in alcohol consumption.

As I tried to find the information now, Russia seems to have disappeared from the rankings for some reason (I blame Dr. Who).