King Kadyrov
By Sean at 7 December, 2007, 5:56 am
For Chechen hetman Ramzan Kadyrov, last weekend’s Duma elections was just another opportunity to show his loyalty to Moscow and further entrench his own power. 99.36 percent of the Chechen vote–574,101 votes out of an electorate of 580,918–went to United Russia. A staggering turnout of 99.5 percent. A number which appeared to Central Electoral Commission head Vladimir Churov as “absolutely pure, transparent and logical.”
Kadyrov himself explained the United Russia’s excessive landslide as simply the reflection of the people’s trust. “There’s nothing unexpected here” he said. “The federal list was headed by head of state Vladimir Putin and in Chechnya the president of the republic was first on the list. The vote showed how much trust the leaders of the country enjoy.”
Yes, trust. And Kadyrov made sure to capitalize on this “trust”. For alongside electing four members to the State Duma, all of which are part of Kadyrov’s khvost–Akhmar Zavgayev, Adam Delimkhanov (Chechen deputy Prime Minister), Magomed Vakhayev (head of the Chechen Constitutional Court) and Said Yakhihajiev–was a referendum that changed the Chechen Constitution so Kadyrov could be president in perpetuity. The referendum received 85 percent approval. Considering that United Russia got 99 percent of the vote, perhaps Kadyrov’s 85 percent should be considered a somewhat of a defeat. What? His people couldn’t muscle that extra 15 percent?
For Kadyrov’s allies, the referendum’s passage was all part of Plan Kadyrov. Chechen Parliament speaker Dukvakh Abdurakhmanov said, “Two terms of four years – that’s just a western stereotype. Who came up with the idea, why do we have to follow it? I think that to end all the transformations and reforms we have begun a leader needs between 22 and 27 years.” 22 to 27 years!? When do the coronation invitations go out?
Popularity: 10% [?]
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“The referendum received 85 percent approval. Considering that United Russia got 99 percent of the vote, perhaps Kadyrov’s 85 percent should be considered a somewhat of a defeat. What? His people couldn’t muscle that extra 15 percent?”
Probably he had more opposition on this one from people in the Chechen elite.
There is an interesting argument out there that Kadyrov has basically succeeded in doing what Dudayev et al. failed at – i.e., creating a Chechnya ruled by Chechens with little day-to-day interference from Moscow.
I think that interesting argument is quite likely to be correct.
creating a Chechnya ruled by Chechens with little day-to-day interference from Moscow.
It’s amazing what you can accomplish after beating a people to submission.
What’s that line from “Crimson Tide”?
‘The Lipizzaner stallions. The most highly trained horses in the world. Their training program is simplicity itself. You just stick a cattle prod up their ass and you can get a horse to deal cards. Simple matter of voltage.’
I don’t buy the people beaten into submission bit. It presupposes that “the people” form a unitary bloc. Chechnya was in a state of low-intensity civil war in 1999 (roughly speaking, Sufis vs. Salafists), and Russia intervened on one of the sides. It was never a war against “the Chechens.”
We had a (French) Red Cross worker stationed, if that is the word, with us for a couple of days a while ago and according to her Kadyrov is indeed very popular in Chechnya. Though probably not at the 99% level.
I think Goble makes a mistake in his article. He seems to presuppose that Chechen War II was about independence and so its current de facto independence is therefore a defeat for Russia. It really wasn’t. It was about containing radical Salafism. I don’t think Moscow cares about Chechnya’s status as long as it is peaceful and is not a destabilizing element.
Korenizatsiia worked well in the past and it seems to work in Russia’s other autonomous regions in the present. The idea that Kadyrov has basically achieved a measure of autonomy that many of the rebels hoped for has been circulating for over a year now.
Darn it, I meant to say she was “stationed” in Ingushetia (which she says is a lot more dangerous than Chechnya).
“The idea that Kadyrov has basically achieved a measure of autonomy that many of the rebels hoped for has been circulating for over a year now.”
Hmm, you think there might be a connection between this and the kadyrovtsy being largely former rebels?
For me, the death blow for any legitimacy Maskhadov had was when he said that he wasn’t struggling for independence anymore, but rather for wide autonomy within Russia. Considering that Chechnya already had that, I think that it was a good sign that Maskhadov was really fighting so he could be leader of Chechnya instead of Kadyrov.
Ah, Tom Parfitt! I used to work with him.
Well, okay, let us say that Kadyrov and Putin are popular in Chechnya. But 99.36 percent of the vote for United Russia!? It would have been much smarter for them to lower that figure by at least a few percentage points.
Hmm, you think there might be a connection between this and the kadyrovtsy being largely former rebels?
Of course. According to my memory, people have said that Kadyrov’s amnesties weren’t working. But clearly they have. The Salafi leaders have been eliminated or driven out to neighboring regions (or maybe even saw the jihad in Iraq or Afghanistan as more fruitful and went there. Deals appear to have been made with the rest. Kadyrov is even using “folk Islam” to bolster his political credibility. The guy’s a thug, but appears to be (or someone is coaching him to be) a smart politician.
People used to declare (they’ve stopped in the face of overwhelming evidence to the contrary) that K’s amnesties wouldn’t work for the same reason they used to deny that Chechnya was being rebuilt, and before that denied that radical Islaw was a major factor in the region. It’s because they decided what they were going to see in Chechnya before they went there.
Ha! I love RFE/RL:
“Some observers see that campaign as a bid to pit the Chechen strain of Sufism against the Salafi Islam espoused by the North Caucasus resistance. The Russian authorities routinely denigrate Salafi Islam as “Wahhabism,” a term that is routinely applied to any Muslims whose political loyalties are considered suspect.
Imagine this paragraph:
“Some observers see that campaign as a bid to pit the Iraqi strain of Shiism against the Suni Islam espoused by the Iraqi resistance. The American authorities routinely denigrate Suni Islam as “Wahhabism,” a term that is routinely applied to any Muslims whose political loyalties are considered suspect.”
I don’t buy the people beaten into submission bit. It presupposes that “the people” form a unitary bloc.
You don’t really disprove the point that if people suffer enough, they will acquiesce to anything that stops or appears to stop suffering. The fact that your analysis is the region was in a state of civil war doesn’t dismiss that a large majority are on-board with something that now provides some semblence of stability and lack of killing, suffering, destruction, etc. Cities pounded to rubble will tend to make people support someone who starts the rebuilding, even if that person is someone like Kadyrov.
I’m sticking with the cattle prod analysis.
Salafi is a subset of Sunni. Sufism is just a mystical approach to Islam, it can be either Sunni or Shi’a.
So, the comparison and word substituion isn’t really all that valid. It’s like mixing Baptists vs. gnostics.
Of late, RFE/RL seems more acerbic toward Russia than usual. I was just amazed at the audacity of this article: Russia: Five Myths About The Elections. In my opinion, the article could have easily been titled “The World: The Five Myths About Democracy”.
My point was that a large amount of Chechens supported the Kadyrovs against the Ichkerians/Salafists even before the war began. It was never a war against “the Chechens.”
I think Kadyrov’s popularity is quite simple — abductions way down, buildings going up, hospitals being opened, pensions being paid. The stuff people need to live normally, which they were not getting during the Maskhadov period.
“Salafi is a subset of Sunni. Sufism is just a mystical approach to Islam, it can be either Sunni or Shi’a.
So, the comparison and word substituion isn’t really all that valid. It’s like mixing Baptists vs. gnostics.”
What I meant was that they would never say something like “US authorities use the term ‘fundamentalist’ for all forms of Islam they don’t like.”
“But 99.36 percent of the vote for United Russia!? It would have been much smarter for them to lower that figure by at least a few percentage points.”
Don’t you know that heading to the polls is a long Chechen tradition? Nothing strange here. You just don’t want to see a strong Russia.
Chechens use a base-20 number system.
I’m always suspicious of simple arguments or those that are easy to accept.
I don’t think (correct me if I’m wrong) that Kadyrov junior has much going on upstairs. He got the job because his dad was blown up and he carried the same super brand that people recognized (i.e. his name). This just doesn’t compare with Dudayev in any way.
The argument also presupposes that the Kremlin actually wants to keep a tight grip on all the regions. Tartarstan has not been mentioned nor have we heard anything about the follow on agreement to the one signed in 1993(?) that kept ‘indpendence’ minded T within Russia’s borders. They’ve got a good deal. Chechnya could have had it too.
On reflection, Dudayev and Kadyrov do have something in common, they’re both boneheads who want their own way, only Dudayev divided his own people and would have not lasted long if the Russians with the likes of Khasbulatov hadn’t come in mob handed. I do wonder who is it that has the real influence over(!) Kadyrov. Who does he listen to?
As for being able to stay President into perpetuity, I doubt he’ll live that long. It wouldn’t surprise me if he’s done in Indira Ghandi style.
As for the future of Chechnya, I question what exactly does it contribute? Sure, it has very low sulfur oil bubbling up through the ground, but has its refineries been rebuilt? I vaguely recall that Moscow still takes the lion’s share from production, though this might have changed. Does anyone know what else does it actually produce and sell elsewhere? That may ultimately be its weakness, unlike Tartarstan who still build aircraft and retain some technical expertise. It wouldn’t either be a bad place to build airbus’ considering
Airbus is looking for a location in Russia, the East (they’ve already agreed to setup an A320s production line in China) or the US to help offset the strength of the euro and reduce its susceptibility to exchange rates…
As for the 99.36, maybe the results were more like 66.39? Still, I’m having doubts that Mr. Democrat Saakashvili will be able to repeat his 99% success in the upcoming presidential elections in Georgia.
Still, Russia doesn’t seem to be having problems with its other 20 million moslem citizens (apart from those states neighboring Chechnya). The Bashkiris, for example, are doing very well (Molniya is based in Ufa).
““Two terms of four years – that’s just a western stereotype.”
That’s not even a Western stereotype. That’s an American stereotype. Howard had four.