Nov
20
“Soft Underbelly”?
November 20, 2007 | 5 Comments
Ditch the dollar. That’s what Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad urged his fellow OPECers to embrace. It’s a move that makes the Financial Times‘ editorial board think that Iran’s strategy is to hit the United States’ “soft underbelly”: the dollar. “They get our oil and give us a worthless piece of paper,” Admadinejad told reporters after the summit.
It’s a good thing this man is pulpit puppet. He would have the get the Saudis to turn the key. That would be like asking them to cut off the leg that’s still holding their kingdom up: American power. So says the FT. Because,
Iran can invoice its oil customers in cowrie shells if it likes, but that would not change the underlying value of the product. Shifting oil markers to other currencies would only make for inefficient markets. It could potentially hit the dollar, though only through secondary effects: by knocking confidence and spurring diversification of global foreign exchange holdings.
The Saudi’s delimma:
It would have to weigh the temptation of a wholesale riyal revaluation or dumping of dollar assets against the risk of destabilising the economy of the US, which is simultaneously the world’s largest oil consumer and ultimate guarantor of Saudi’s security.
Don’t hold your breath.
Perhaps feeling left out, Venezuela’s Hugo Chavez also snipped at the States. “If the United States is crazy enough to invade Iran or attack Venezuela once again, then the price of oil will not stay at 100 dollars a barrel, but may rise to 200 dollars,” he declared.
Whether it’s dump the dollar or not, silence about the potential dollar/oil crisis seems a bit dated. Crude is now bubbling at a cool $100 a barrel. And OPEC is refusing to pump more. Like or not one can’t deny the dollar’s slide next to the rise in the price of oil. It all makes sense really. The two most valuable things on this planet are oil and U.S. bills. One drops as the other rises. Having the Euro displace the dollar could start a global dollar sell off.
And then there’s Russia. Kommersant tells us via Interfax that Russian Finance Minister Alexei Kudrin is ready to jump on the dump the dollar bandwagon. He said it was possible to move to selling Russian oil in rubles in five years. Kudrin better sit down before he falls down. As of today, one rubles are 24 for a dollar. Euros are selling for a $1.48 each. And the dollar’s drop has given the Russians a case of inflation. Even Kudrin knows this. Read his lips: “In the short and middle term, the ruble has manifested sufficient stability and even appreciation, but we are the country yet impacted by high risks of capital movement, changes of current account, other capital indicators capable of affecting the exchange policy.”
So while “Dump the Dollar” is a good slogan for OPEC, its bad news for Russia. That said, Kurdin’s quip about joining the “D the D” club will certainly make for a nice political slogan.
Popularity: 2% [?]
Nov
20
Yabloko Youth Detained and Complained
November 20, 2007 | 1 Comment
Lenta.ru reports that Ivan Bolshakov, the Moscow head of Yabloko Youth, was subjected to a criminal search and detention. He has now been released from custody. Bolshakov was detained in the Kursk train station in Moscow as he and Ilya Yashin waited to board a train to Nizhny Novgorod for a pre-election trip. According to Lenta:
They put Bolshakov in handcuffs, and after this they took him to the Ziuzinskii Interdistrict Prosecutor’s Office for questioning. As his comrade in arms [Yashin] emphasized that according to existing law a candidate to the State Duma can only be detained with approval of the Prosecutor General of the Russian Federation. The officers who conducted the criminal search did not have this.
Bolshakov’s detention, according to Yashin was because he was accused of assaulting a police officer during the Butovo protests in June 2007. No charges have been filed against Bolshakov and Yabloko considers the accusations “a complete fabrication.”
Bolshakov’s brief detention comes right before Yabloko Youth submitted a complaint to the Central Elections Commission charging that the website Zaputina.ru is really a front for Putin and United Russia and not an independent project. According to Russian electoral law, all election advertising must be paid with funds from political parties’ coffers. United Russia would be violating the law if Zaputina.ru was registered as mass media.
Za Putina is run by Konstantin Rykov, who stands as United Russia’s candidate for Nizhni Novgorod, and features among other things airbrushed Putinist Realist photos of Putin, the faces of many Putin supporters, a game called “Putin Chess”, video, and other propaganda promoting all things Putin. The site is slick indeed. And since its establishment at the beginning of this month it has clocked over 70,000 pro-Putinites, the majority of whom come from Moscow.
“The site Zaputina.ru is obviously for agitational purposes, and its creators are obliged to pay for its activities from the electoral funds of United Russia. Moreover, it’s clear that this internet portal is not a private initiative, but an expensive pre-electoral project. There are video clips on the site that shape a positive image of the main candidate. On the sites material Putin is presented as a hero,” Yashin told Gazeta.ru.
Looks like the run up to the elections are shaping up as expected.
Popularity: 2% [?]
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