Comments on: Lights! Camera! Action! http://seansrussiablog.org/2007/09/04/lights-camera-action-2/ Russia Yesterday, Today, Tomorrow Fri, 03 Sep 2010 23:45:15 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=abc By: nikolay i. http://seansrussiablog.org/2007/09/04/lights-camera-action-2/comment-page-1/#comment-6493 nikolay i. Wed, 05 Sep 2007 02:15:29 +0000 http://seansrussiablog.org/2007/09/04/lights-camera-action-2/#comment-6493 Sean, don't know if you browse through Russian weekly "Expert", but they have a fairly good text on the long-term implications of the pre-election season activity. http://expert.ru/printissues/expert/2007/32/sledstvenniy_komitet/ PS: Sorry for forgetting to hyperlinking; Sean, don’t know if you browse through Russian weekly “Expert”, but they have a fairly good text on the long-term implications of the pre-election season activity.

http://expert.ru/printissues/expert/2007/32/sledstvenniy_komitet/

PS: Sorry for forgetting to hyperlinking;

]]> By: Sean http://seansrussiablog.org/2007/09/04/lights-camera-action-2/comment-page-1/#comment-6483 Sean Tue, 04 Sep 2007 20:12:29 +0000 http://seansrussiablog.org/2007/09/04/lights-camera-action-2/#comment-6483 I think the plan is for each to run regardless of who gets "appointed." There is also the possibility that Putin will not "appoint" anyone, at least publicly, letting Ivanov and Medvedev face off. Both are safe candidates, and despite minor differences on emphasis I doubt both will rock the boat too much. I think the Russian elite can and will live with either despite their preferences. Just like when it comes down to it, the American elite reconciles itself to whichever Democrat or Republican gets elected. There is as assumption than neither will stray too outside the bounds of acceptable governance. I would imagine that Russia is developing the same process. The more I think of it, the more I feel that there is a process going on that is larger than one guy or even one political faction within the Russian elite. This is why I think that a two party system is on the horizon. Different groups may jostle for power and influence, but on the whole I think that this Presidential election will solidify the new unwritten rules of the game that Putin has established. Those are: stay within acceptable limits of power, respect the power of the state, vertical power, and the office of the President, and recognize that the days of inter-elite civil war is over. The only thing missing here is a respect for the rule of law. Whether that develops is anyone's guess. But if the rule of law is ever going to develop, I think that acceptance of the new rules of the political game are fundamental. I don't think Putin is going to come back in 2012 or later. But that is just a guess. I think the plan is for each to run regardless of who gets “appointed.” There is also the possibility that Putin will not “appoint” anyone, at least publicly, letting Ivanov and Medvedev face off. Both are safe candidates, and despite minor differences on emphasis I doubt both will rock the boat too much. I think the Russian elite can and will live with either despite their preferences. Just like when it comes down to it, the American elite reconciles itself to whichever Democrat or Republican gets elected. There is as assumption than neither will stray too outside the bounds of acceptable governance. I would imagine that Russia is developing the same process.

The more I think of it, the more I feel that there is a process going on that is larger than one guy or even one political faction within the Russian elite. This is why I think that a two party system is on the horizon. Different groups may jostle for power and influence, but on the whole I think that this Presidential election will solidify the new unwritten rules of the game that Putin has established. Those are: stay within acceptable limits of power, respect the power of the state, vertical power, and the office of the President, and recognize that the days of inter-elite civil war is over. The only thing missing here is a respect for the rule of law. Whether that develops is anyone’s guess. But if the rule of law is ever going to develop, I think that acceptance of the new rules of the political game are fundamental.

I don’t think Putin is going to come back in 2012 or later. But that is just a guess.

]]> By: W. Shedd http://seansrussiablog.org/2007/09/04/lights-camera-action-2/comment-page-1/#comment-6479 W. Shedd Tue, 04 Sep 2007 19:46:36 +0000 http://seansrussiablog.org/2007/09/04/lights-camera-action-2/#comment-6479 So - what happens if either Ivanov or Medvedev decides not to play along and run for the presidency despite not being annointed by VVP? For example, if Ivanov gets the nod from VVP and Medvedev decides to campaign for the presidency anyway? Of if Putin doesn't nominate either candidate? I mention this because - it would seem to me that it works in Putin's favor for a planned return in 2012 if there is some degree of chaos in Russian politics or the economy the next 4 years. So – what happens if either Ivanov or Medvedev decides not to play along and run for the presidency despite not being annointed by VVP?

For example, if Ivanov gets the nod from VVP and Medvedev decides to campaign for the presidency anyway?

Of if Putin doesn’t nominate either candidate?

I mention this because – it would seem to me that it works in Putin’s favor for a planned return in 2012 if there is some degree of chaos in Russian politics or the economy the next 4 years.

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