The Russian electoral season is already unfolding like a stage performance. Putin, who we might refer to as the Director, announced the date for his troupe’s first performance: the State Duma elections scheduled for December 1. Kommersant Vlast’ has a thorough breakdown of its prediction of how the 450 Duma seats will be divided. The first thing to notice is the expectation that the number of parties represented in the Duma will drop by 10 percent. This is no doubt a result of two factors. The first is the increase of the electoral threshold to 7 percent. This along is expected to cut out 10 or 11 parties alone. The other fact is multiple. Namely, that Russian politics are a complex business, and the revamp of the electoral threshold matters most for parties already waining in influence.
To explain this complexity, Kommersant’s Dmitiry Kamyshev provides eight factors (with the number of seats at stake for each) that will determine the Duma’s breakdown: Name recognition (140 seats), political influence (100 seats), war chest (70 seats), leadership (45 seats), flamboyancy (35 seats), airtime (25 seats), past victories (20 seats), and fulfillment of promises (15 seats). No party dominates in all eight. For example, you can’t think of the KPRF without Gennady Zyuganov’s bald dome or the LDPR without picturing Vladimir Zhirinovsky flaying his arms about. This alone will get each party 16 and 14 seats respectively. United Russia on the other hand has no face, except for maybe Putin’s, and he’s one foot out the door. That said besides leadership and flamboyancy, United Russia tops in all other categories giving them a predicted 245 seats. Just Russia comes in second with 85 and the KPRF and LDPR follow with 75 and 45 seats respectively.
But as everyone knows the State Duma elections are merely a dress rehearsal for the real performance. Russian Presidential elections are scheduled for March 9, 2008. The stars have all but been officially selected, with First Deputy Prime Ministers Dmitry Medvedev and Sergei Ivanov leading the cast. The question is which role each will get. Last year, Kommersant reports, there were rumors that Ivanov would become the head of Just Russia, while Medvedev would lead United Russia. That makes sense writes Kamyshev since “the liberal lawyer Medvedev heading the right-center United Russia and the pro-state, pro-police Ivanov heading the left-center Just Russia” seems to correspond with political ideology. But now that Ivanov is heading in the polls, Medvedev’s starring role appears in jeopardy. Now Ivanov looks slated to lead United Russia, a move that also makes sense since “if United Russia was going to associate itself with one of the possible successors, it could only be with the one who was going to win.” Given the choice between ideology and consistency in performance, the latter wins every time. Russia is moving toward a two party system for sure, but it will be a while before Just Russia is ready for the center stage.
The only question is whether all this over planning will scuttle the authenticity of the performance. After all, manufacturing an election is easy, but making it manufactured and reflect the will of the people is a skill that I think only Western democracies have mastered. Perhaps with Putin’s keen directorial eye, the right amount of stage management, and a stellar cast, this electoral season will be Russia’s democratic coming out party. I know I will have my ticket in hand. There is nothing I like more than a good political drama.
So – what happens if either Ivanov or Medvedev decides not to play along and run for the presidency despite not being annointed by VVP?
For example, if Ivanov gets the nod from VVP and Medvedev decides to campaign for the presidency anyway?
Of if Putin doesn’t nominate either candidate?
I mention this because – it would seem to me that it works in Putin’s favor for a planned return in 2012 if there is some degree of chaos in Russian politics or the economy the next 4 years.
I think the plan is for each to run regardless of who gets “appointed.” There is also the possibility that Putin will not “appoint” anyone, at least publicly, letting Ivanov and Medvedev face off. Both are safe candidates, and despite minor differences on emphasis I doubt both will rock the boat too much. I think the Russian elite can and will live with either despite their preferences. Just like when it comes down to it, the American elite reconciles itself to whichever Democrat or Republican gets elected. There is as assumption than neither will stray too outside the bounds of acceptable governance. I would imagine that Russia is developing the same process.
The more I think of it, the more I feel that there is a process going on that is larger than one guy or even one political faction within the Russian elite. This is why I think that a two party system is on the horizon. Different groups may jostle for power and influence, but on the whole I think that this Presidential election will solidify the new unwritten rules of the game that Putin has established. Those are: stay within acceptable limits of power, respect the power of the state, vertical power, and the office of the President, and recognize that the days of inter-elite civil war is over. The only thing missing here is a respect for the rule of law. Whether that develops is anyone’s guess. But if the rule of law is ever going to develop, I think that acceptance of the new rules of the political game are fundamental.
I don’t think Putin is going to come back in 2012 or later. But that is just a guess.
Sean, don’t know if you browse through Russian weekly “Expert”, but they have a fairly good text on the long-term implications of the pre-election season activity.
http://expert.ru/printissues/expert/2007/32/sledstvenniy_komitet/
PS: Sorry for forgetting to hyperlinking;