President Bush and Putin appeared to come to some agreement over the placing of missile defense systems in East Europe. The United States has claimed that any missile defense system would be aimed at preventing attacks from “rouge nations” like Iran and North Korea. Russia has repeatedly rejected this explanation instead arguing that the systems were against a non existent threat and the American’s real intention as to further contain Russia.
Well it seems that despite the cooling relations between Russia and the US, Bush and Putin’s personal relationship seems to go a long way. According to news reports, the two presidents were able to come to some understanding during their hour long talks in the German Baltic resort town of Heiligendamm. Reports RIA Novosti:
The discussions lasted around one hour, and also involved White House National Security Adviser Stephen Hadley. After the talks, Bush did not give a specific response to Putin’s proposal, but said his Russian counterpart had made some “interesting suggestions.” However, Hadley went a step further, saying Washington was willing to study the offer.
The Russian leader said: “We have thoroughly studied the U.S. [missile defense] proposals. We have our own ideas and I have explained them to the U.S. president.”
“The first idea is to jointly use a radar that Russia leases from Azerbaijan in Gabala,” he said, adding that the joint use of the Gabala radar would allow Russia to avoid aiming its missiles at Europe.
One wonders if anyone bothered to ask the Azeris about what they think of the idea. Given that the site Putin proposes is on a Russian base, I doubt there was or is much consulting to do.
The White House has yet to make any formal response to Putin’s suggestions, but it seems that Bush’s people took Putin’s statements that he would drop objections to the missile shield if radar systems were put in Azerbaijan as a “welcome surprise.” Given the intransigence on both sides, I have to say that I share that surprise.
As of now, I guess we will have to wait and see if the US overtures about US-Russian cooperation will bare any fruit.
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By Sean — 2 years ago
Guest: Tim Nunan on Humanitarian Invasion: Global Development in Cold War Afghanistan.
By Sean — 3 years ago
War looms once again over eastern Ukraine as speculation floods the internet of a possible offensive by Russian backed separatists. There have been reports of a stream of new amour and weapons crossing the Russia-Ukraine border. Russia continues to issue denials, as it has done since the beginning of the conflict. Is a separatist offensive imminent? It’s hard to say. Most experts seem to think so, as they mull over Putin’s possible game plan. Does he want a land bridge to Crimea? Is he keeping the Ukraine destabilized enough to scuttle reforms? Looking to consolidate control over rebel territory? Assert control over a fragmented and unruly rebel force? It’s hard to say. What is clear is that the claims that an offensive is imminent resound in a unified voice.
This is why I found an article in Yahoo News arguing that an offensive is unlikely so refreshing. According to experts interviewed by Yahoo, “The amount of military hardware being moved into the war-torn region is insufficient for a major operation.”
Instead, the article claims, Moscow’s design is to deter Ukraine from launching a bid to reclaim rebel controlled territories.
“There is a positional war of attrition going on. Any large-scale offensives are highly unlikely,” said Pavel Felgenhauer, an independent military analyst based in Moscow [and no Kremlin stooge].
“For a major operation, you need thousands of tanks. There are a lot less than that — and mainly just artillery.”
Another expert, Konstantin Kalachev, head of Moscow-based Political Expert think tank, doesn’t think a return to open conflict will benefit the Kremlin. “What is happening now is not the build-up to an offensive,” he told Yahoo.”Russia needs a military presence (in Donetsk and Lugansk) in order to start marshalling these people (the separatists) and to force the field commanders to work together.” Basically, after the elections in Donetsk and Lugansk, Russia wants to consolidate its control over the region. Also Kalachev added, the buildup of forces is to prevent an attempt by the Ukrainians to take back rebel controlled coal mines. The saber rattling, he says, is to “stop Ukraine [from] thinking about trying to reclaim the territories where the coalmines are.”
After gas, Ukraine generates 35 percent of its energy and 45 percent of its electricity from coal. Rebels currently control 88 of Ukraine’s 93 mines. Because of the war, 68 of those mines have ceased spitting out coal. Ukraine only has 1.7 million tons of coal in its reserves and it needs coal to get through the winter. Kiev would like to buy coal from the rebels because it’s cheaper than importing. But the rebels aren’t willing to sell without “equal dialogue.” Going to South Africa for hasn’t fared so well. So Ukraine is turning, ironically, to Russia. “South Africa has refused to maintain further deliveries of coal to us. A new contract can be signed in at least a month and a half. We have no other choice but to turn to Russian suppliers and purchase their coal. The situation with coal supply is threatening. Energy security is at risk,“ said Yury Prodan Ukrainian Energy and Coal Industry Minister. So preventing Kiev from recapturing Donbas coal mines is certainly a reason for Russia to shore up the rebel’s forces.
Another reason for the military build up is that the rebels have convinced Moscow that Kiev is ready for an attack.
Felgenhauer suggested that the rebels see the current ceasefire deal as a “betrayal” and were trying to provoke an escalation in fighting.
“They’re trying to show to the Kremlin that Kiev is getting ready to attack,” he said. “Their appeals seem to have worked somehow and Russia has sent in some weaponry, mainly artillery.”
But Felgenhauer didn’t discount an offensive in the near future, just not now. He contends that the deployed hardware is “completely inadequate for an offensive and the time of year is not suitable.” “In theory, he added, there is a possibility of major actions after New Year, in January or February. But I doubt it will happen in the winter — more likely spring.”
All of this is, of course, speculation upon speculation. An offensive could start tomorrow or the next day or the next. Or not. It’s hard to know whether Putin is playing the short or the long game. What is clear the recent build up of forces threatens to makes the semi-cold war in the east hot again.Post Views: 254
By Sean — 4 years ago
Translation and introduction by William Risch.
A friend of the Facebook group, Euromaidan News in English, sent this report from Sloviansk, Ukraine, the scene of fierce fighting between pro-Ukrainian and pro-separatist forces. As with this person’s previous report, posted in May, I have withheld the names of the author and translator. I have changed transliterations of place names from Russian to Ukrainian.
“This is Not My War”
We had to get out of Sloviansk. It’s too dangerous. We were spending the nights in the basement of our apartment building, it was too damp. It’s just terrible. War is war, what can I say? We fled the city to save our lives. As for our possessions—we left them behind and what will be will be. At least our family is together. When people flee Sloviansk, their apartments are occupied by the so-called separatists/“home guard,” and then probably the National Guard will come in, and…who knows what will happen. Now both sides—the separatists and the National Guard—are just grabbing men, giving them guns, and telling them, “Go, fight!” Who are they supposed to shoot—their own people? The home guard (separatists) are our people, and the National Guardsmen are our people. It’s a civil war, and it is awful.
The Ukrainian National Guard isn’t “storming” Sloviansk, they are bombing it—from airplanes, helicopters. They say they are targeting checkpoints and the like, but in actuality they are bombing the entire city. The terrorists take shelter, and the ones who suffer in the bombings are the elderly, women, and children. There have been a rash of premature births.
The Ukrainian National Guard is firing on the city with high caliber cannons, as well as from helicopters. A shell landed in a 9-story apartment building in the city last week. Four people died and many were injured, and every single window in the building was shattered. Lots of buildings in the city have been damaged like this from the bombings. For example, another 14-story residential building was damaged. Shells hit the 7th, 11th and 12th floors. A shell also fell on the roof of the central polyclinic, but didn’t explode. Shells landed in the pedagogical university and the dormitory, causing deaths and injuries. A janitor was killed and one student had her arm ripped off from shrapnel. Shells also landed in the children’s hospital but thank God no one was injured. It seems like they are just bombing indiscriminately.
Yesterday Krasnyi Liman was bombed. A guy I know had a shell land right in his living room, and his apartment was obliterated. In a residential apartment building. Krasnyi Liman has a really important railway station—the hospital at the railway station was bombed and a machinist was killed, a bunch of bystanders, the head doctor, and others. The National Guard tried to blame the separatists for it, but there have never been any separatist-terrorists in Krasnyi Liman—they are all in Sloviansk. I know a guy who works at the hospital—he said the Guard came into the hospital, searched for patients who had battle wounds, and shot them. Without any arrests, investigations, or anything. The National Guard did that. In Sviatohirsk there are cannons—those kind that can fire 15-20 kilometers—positioned on top of a hill pointing in the direction of Krasnyi Liman. They’ve been firing on Krasnyi Liman, and everybody there is living in basements, just like everyone in Sloviansk has been. Why did they do this to Krasnyi Liman? It’s a tourist town of 50,000 people where no terrorists have been stationed.
If they can do this to Krasnyi Liman, God only knows what they will do to Sloviansk. They aren’t storming the city. Battles are carried out on the outskirts of the city. Otherwise, it is bombing, bombing, bombing. I wouldn’t have believed it if I hadn’t seen it with my own eyes. The government announced that the “active phase” of anti-terrorist operations was starting, and then they just started bombing. They haven’t stormed the city yet. Maybe a peaceful solution will be found. But think about it—if the military enters the city, and captures it, a lot of innocent civilians are going to be killed in the process. Snipers have been killing civilians already. A little girl was shot. There are a lot of guys from Pravyi Sektor in the National Guard. They caught one sniper and asked him why he was shooting at children in the city. He answered, “You all only have five days left anyway.” People have decided they have nothing more to lose, so their attitude to the war is changing accordingly. Like the father of that little girl who was shot by a sniper—if earlier this wasn’t his war, now he has something to fight for. He won’t fight for the Donetsk People’s Republic (DNR)—who is that? What is that? Dear DNR, what are your programs, what are your political views? These are just some armed guys who took power, there is no loyalty to them among the populace. And the other side is throwing bombs at us.
We are worried that they will impose the draft. It would be okay if the National Guard was reliable. But there are a lot of new recruits who joined up just recently after there was a big amnesty of 26,000 prison inmates—a bunch of those former inmates have joined the Guard. Including those who were imprisoned for hard crimes—they’ve been given guns and enlisted in the Guard. We are worried there will be more looting in the city—there’s already looting and it might get worse.
It is really a shame that our own military is doing this. Of course they don’t want to admit it, and they blame the separatists. The separatists say it is the National Guard, and the National Guard says it is the separatists. How do you know what’s true? But as for those bombings I described, I saw them with my own eyes, across the street. I could see who was bombing, and it was the National Guard. Sloviansk is surrounded by 15,000 national troops. Things have reached the boiling point. I see that both sides are lying. Both sides are lying about the number of casualties. The morgue in Sloviansk is overflowing. They are burying bodies in swamps, wrapping them up and throwing them in the lake—it’s awful.
Sloviansk is now without running water. The waterlines were damaged in the bombing. Where we are staying now, in a nearby town, the water was also cut off. We’re getting water from another house’s well. I guess we’ll bathe in the river, at least its summertime. And there is no food left in the stores. There’s been no bread for a long time, and now the stores are out of almost everything else. There are no shipments in, because the Donetsk Region has been completely cut off and isolated from the Kharkiv Region and all others.
Right now Sloviansk is totally closed—you can’t get in or out. Those who stayed there are stuck now. It is the same in nearby towns—you are stuck wherever you are now. People can’t get in or out of Donetsk, either. (By the way, the other day the burned bodies of two Arab university students were found in Donetsk—we don’t know who did that or why.) They say the Ukrainian borders are closed now, too—women and children can cross the border but men are turned back. Maybe it’s because they are getting ready to impose the draft, I don’t know. Who are we supposed to fight? Who? This is not my war. I’m for a united Ukraine. My children were born in Ukraine. Sure, I was born in the USSR, but my children were born here, in Ukraine. Everything I have is here, in Ukraine.
The kids are suffering, of course. There were no graduation ceremonies or parties this year, nothing like that. Final exams were suspended.
There are some programs helping evacuees, and helping people evacuate from Sloviansk—the International Renaissance Foundation, for example. A few weeks ago, when the first attempts to evacuate people were made, women and children boarded the busses to evacuate, and they were attacked by gunfire. People have become cannon fodder. It doesn’t benefit the home guard for people to evacuate. And the only ones who can evacuate are those who have money. The trains from Sloviansk aren’t running. Because of the war the prices have risen 1.5 times. The banks are working, but only informally—if you know somebody you can call them up and get service through the back door of the bank. We’ll see how long we can afford to rent this little house we are staying in now. People’s pensions and salaries have been frozen, and all social payments. We got our April paychecks but nothing after that. We’re just living on what we had put away.
I thought I would go back to the city—I wanted to relocate my family here and go back. But the checkpoints were under fire; the outer ring is controlled by the National Guard, and the inner ring is controlled by the “terrorists-separatists-home guard,” however you want to call them. The National Guard let me through fine, but the separatists started shooting warning shots in the air and turned me back. I’m a local! It is really too dangerous to travel anywhere.
It’s hard to get to sleep at night, not knowing what the next day holds in store. I never could have imagined these horrors could happen here.Post Views: 322