How did you know my job description?

Just rolling back for some commentary on this older thread that I missed.

Did someone actually say something so stupid as that above comment? Services consume no resources and the U.S. economy has no direct effect on Russia’s economy? Wow. What does this r-tard imagine service workers do – sit huddle in dark caves, burning office furniture for warmth, scratching notes to each other on bare rocks?

So, according to this crackpot theory, it is the 30% of the U.S. economy that actually consumes wood, paper, oil, gas, nickel, aluminum, titanium, etc. that make the U.S. the largest consumer or buyer of these products in the world? Guess again.

Anyone with an elementary understanding of economics would realize that even if the U.S. did not buy these resources directly from Russia, their economy and ability to purchase affects the prices on the world market. The reality is, the U.S. is a direct buyer of all these resources from Russia, in quantities great and small, and downturns of the U.S. economy sends ripples through all these markets.

“With 65 percent of its revenues coming from oil and gas, Russia’s ledger books are full of black ink. Gross domestic product is growing at a healthy clip of 7 percent per year, Russia has the highest hard currency reserves outside Asia, and a windfall oil fund is steadily approaching US$100 billion (euro77 billion).

All of that means that an oil price crunch, if or when it comes, will hurt much less.

But local industry is flagging and economists argue that the time to act to modernize the economy is now — while Russia has the luxury to spend its oil bonanza on incentives and tax breaks aimed at spurring decrepit industries and boosting small businesses. Wait too long, they say, and the chance will be missed because the government’s money men will be trying to protect savings as oil prices fall.”

And yes, the Russian economy is not dependent on the American one. But China’s is. Around 20% (as of 2005) of its exports go to the US. If the American economy falters significantly, it will have an impact. The question is how much.

But my lager argument had little to do with these statistics. I would be interested to know what people think of the relationship between destabilized nations, especially oil nations, having an impact on industrialized nations’ economies. Essentially, how much does a globalized matter to the growth and health of Russia’s economy?

What evidence do you have that Russian economic growth has “accelerated” since April 2006?

Maybe you are right that Russia’s economy is more dependent on China than the U.S. (but again,where is your evidence?) — however, isn’t it a matter of concern for Russia if a nation with such a large economy as the U.S. begins a cold war with Russia?

Also, your point about oil revenues does not make sense. Just because Russia doesn’t spend 70% of its oil revenues doesn’t mean that 60% of its state budget doesn’t come from oil revenues. The question is whether Russia has non-oil sources of income to fund its budget by more than 40%. Your statement says nothing about that. If you have evidence that the oil revenue share of the Russian state budget is less than 60%, what is it?

If Russia’s GDP is less than 60% dependent on oil, what is the figure? “Smaller still” means nothing.

Incidentally, Russia should be concerned about the Chinese economy, not the US one. China’s GDP is now around $8 trln, of which ~60% is actual industrial production that consumes raw resources, including Russian ones. The US economy is around $12 tlrn, of which ~70% is services, which consume no resources and have absolutely no direct effect on Russia’s economy. It’s really China that begins to matter more in this world economically. If not yet, then in a few years. And you can’t object by pointing out that China’s economic growth depends on the US any more — the East Asian consumption has really been taking off in recent years.

But I do think that Russia would be better off with decreasing its energy exports. Just to break the dependence on them earlier rather than later.